麦肯锡理解中国的个人金融服务

null了解中国的个人金融服务了解中国的个人金融服务CONFIDENTIALDiscussion documentFebruary, 2001This report contains information that is confidential and proprietary to McKinsey & Company and is solely for the use of McKinsey & Company personnel. No part of it may be used, circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside McKinsey & Company. If you are not the intended recipient of this report, you are hereby notified that the use, circulation, quoting, or reproducing of this report is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.EM FIG Practice AP Marketing Practice2000年PFS市场覆盖调查2000年PFS市场覆盖调查New ZealandKoreaTaiwanChinaAustraliaSingaporeHong KongPhilippinesThailandIndiaIndonesiaMalaysia亚太地区14个国家和巴西、土耳其 5,733 个家庭 平均每个国家约400个样本 中等和中等收入以上家庭 (PFS产品和服务的积极使用者) 内容 购买行为 拥有的产品类型 渠道的利用率 态度 人口统计 三年 (1998, 1999, 2000)Japan*TurkeyBrazilCHINA PERSONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES SURVEY SAMPLE DESCRIPTIONCHINA PERSONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES SURVEY SAMPLE DESCRIPTION中国4个大城市的代样本 Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Wuhan年龄: 21-64岁有经济决策权 收入情况 3 个顶尖城市，年均家庭收入在RMB $30,000 以上 1 个内陆城市家庭年收入RMB25,000 以上过滤45-min interviews with questions covering financial needs, buying behaviour, preferences, attitudes, product usage, etc.Main interviewSource: team analysis, government statisticsCONTENTCONTENT1. Market is attractive with many opportunities 2. PFS survey findings 3. Customer segmentation 4. Implication CHINA PFS MARKET IS UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES13亿人口中只有15％生活在城市里，他们的生活比较富裕 GDP年均复合增长率CAGR (1992-1999)推动了总产阶级和富裕阶层的产生 Increasing per capita income driving demand for financial products beyond bank deposits High savings rate estimated at 45% of GDP Aging population with over 65 segment estimated to reach 7% by 2000Very limited range of consumer savings and investment products, supported by very backward services Mortgage and consumer loan market created only at the end of 1995 Other consumer loan products are severely restricted by PBOCMarket infrastructure very unsophisticated, e.g., most bank branches are not able to share data Traditional channels dominate, i.e. branches for banks Foreign entrants have recently introduced commissioned-agents, and professionally run agency system Slow development of alternative and remote channels; still largely a cash-based society Lack of local expertise and professional advice to educate customersMarket largely closed off to foreign players Highly political license approval process Government under increasing pressure to liberalize, to facilitate WTO entry Reform of state owned enterprises SOEs resulting in reduction of welfare benefits Reform of welfare system resulting in shift of pension and health care responsibilities to companies and individuals Weak regulatory framework that is also poorly implemented, resulting in a lack of transparencyRMB business can be attractive with wider spreads given the latent demand for, but lack of alternative savings and investment products, and unsecured consumer credit lines Profits in some customer segments will become increasingly squeezed as a result of government regulations and competitionMarket dominated by state-owned, or affiliated financial institutions Emerging local and foreign entrants are aggressively penetrating and expanding market share Large number of foreign players intent on maintaining a presence/toehold despite strong entry barriersCompetitive environmentRegulatory environmentChina’s PFS market evolutionConsumer demandDistributionProductsProfitabilityCHINA PFS MARKET IS UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGESHISTORICALLY FAST GROWING PERSONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES MARKETS IN CHINAHISTORICALLY FAST GROWING PERSONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES MARKETS IN CHINASource: China Statistical yearbook, China Bank Card office, McKinsey analysisMutual fundsSecuritiesDeposit100% =$5,351Market size and growth, RMB billions100% =$5,359$6,833$4.2$33.4$75Mortgages19971998CAGR 100%1999PFS assetsLife insurancePension$3,100ESTIMATE1994PFS LiabilitiesConsumer loans1997199819991994$13319971998199919961995Payment Quasi-credit & credit card outstanding (RMB billion)100%=1421222324CAGR 17%CAGR 11%1111000.21BUT PENETRATION OF PERSONAL FINANCIAL PRODUCTS REMAINS COMPARATIVELY LOW, MONEY IS IN BASIC DEPOSITBUT PENETRATION OF PERSONAL FINANCIAL PRODUCTS REMAINS COMPARATIVELY LOW, MONEY IS IN BASIC DEPOSIT Source: EIU, literature search, McKinsey analysisOutstanding balances as percent of GDP 1999ChinaUSMortgageStockbrokeringCredit cardDepositChinaConsumer financeChina73%35%China3%27%ChinaUSUSUSUSLOW PENETRATION IS EXPLAINED BY LACK OF SUPPLY RATHER THAN LACK OF DEMAND AS DEMONSTRATED IN CREDIT CARD CASELOW PENETRATION IS EXPLAINED BY LACK OF SUPPLY RATHER THAN LACK OF DEMAND AS DEMONSTRATED IN CREDIT CARD CASESupply of credit hindered by...PBOC set tight limit on overdraft to avoid credit explosion Lack of integrated payment network to facilitate efficient transaction processing Slow speed in data transmission through underdeveloped tele-lines No personal credit history in China Banks are conservative about overdraft as potential risk is high due to poor control and risk management systemChinese culture is not necessarily debt adverse Revolving credit percent of card spendUSTaiwanHong KongChinaMORTGAGES AND CREDIT CARDS ARE THE MOST ATTRACTIVE PFS PRODUCTSMORTGAGES AND CREDIT CARDS ARE THE MOST ATTRACTIVE PFS PRODUCTSProductCurrent market size (1999) RMB BillionsROA before tax Pre-tax profit pool RMB BillionsEst. growth rateCompe-titionRegulationFavorable Neutral UnfavorableDeposit Mortgage Credit Card Stockbroking* Life insurance/ pension5,962 126 120 2118 1,640 0.5 1.5 2 ~ 5 0.2 2.52.9 2 2~4 3.5 4115 ~ 20 40 - 60 32 - 40 18 ~ 25 25 - 30 * Currently banks don’t directly provide investment and insurance products Source: China Information Bank, McKinsey analysisx=CARD AND MORTGAGE MARKETS HAVE ENJOYED PHENOMENAL GROWTH IN THE 1990sCARD AND MORTGAGE MARKETS HAVE ENJOYED PHENOMENAL GROWTH IN THE 1990s Source: China Finance Year Book; China Bank Cards Office; Lafferty Report Growth rate of cards in circulation, 1999 Millions 0.00.00.010.08Credit cardsQuasi-cardsDebit cards959152CAGR PercentMortgage total balance RMB BillionsCAGR 105%199419951996199719981999CONTENTCONTENT1. Overall opportunity 2. PFS Survey findings 3. Customer segmentation 4. Implication CHINA PFS CUSTOMER TRENDSCHINA PFS CUSTOMER TRENDSConsumers showed increased satisfaction towards their provider Big four banks’ customers have lower satisfaction than other private banks However, relative to other embryonic countries, China has lower satisfaction levelAlthough the decreasing annual attrition rate, Chinese consumers are reticent about consolidating all of their financial services relationships with one institution They are relatively price sensitive Hence, disloyalty likely to increase as they grow richerInvestment products are likely to take off as consumers worry about retirement Pent-up demand in credit product due to lack of supply便利和价格的竞争性斯成功的关键因素 容易获得和快速周转是中国信用产品的关键因素 品牌和声誉是投资类产品提供者的关键因素 Alliance with local bank is critical to gain customers as they prefer local to foreign banks Face-to-face still best way to access customers, but newer channels start to emerge and will be important to retain customersCONSUMERS SHOWED INCREASED SATISFACTION TOWARDS THEIR PROVIDER OVER THE YEARSCONSUMERS SHOWED INCREASED SATISFACTION TOWARDS THEIR PROVIDER OVER THE YEARSI am highly satisfied with my current financial institutionsI can get good service from my existing financial institutions199819992000CAGR 12%199819992000CAGR 3%ChinaAsia Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS Survey 1998 - 2000 (based on high & middle income groups)Percent strongly/somewhat agreeMOST OF THE BIG FOUR BANKS’ CUSTOMERS HAVE LOWER SATISFACTION THAN AVERAGE CONSUMERS IN CHINAMOST OF THE BIG FOUR BANKS’ CUSTOMERS HAVE LOWER SATISFACTION THAN AVERAGE CONSUMERS IN CHINAI am highly satisfied with my current financial institutionsI can get good service from my existing financial institutions* Big four banks Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS Survey 1998-2000 (based on high & middle income groups)Percent strongly/somewhat agreePudong Development Bank (n=6)Bank of Communication (n=10)Industrial Commercial Bank of China* (n=255)China Construction Bank* (n= 84)Agriculture Bank of China* (n= 25)Other domestic bank (n= 10)Bank of China Group* (n= 20)China Merchant Bank (n= 2)China average (71%)China average (69%)HOWEVER, CHINA HAS LOWER SATISFACTION LEVEL RELATIVE TO OTHER EMBRYONIC COUNTRIESHOWEVER, CHINA HAS LOWER SATISFACTION LEVEL RELATIVE TO OTHER EMBRYONIC COUNTRIESPercent strongly/somewhat agree; N = 4,088I am highly satisfied with my current financial institutionsIndiaIndonesia ThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeChinaKoreaHong Kong TaiwanI am very loyal to existing financial institutionsI can get good service from my existing financial institutions * Arithmetic average of Asian countries surveyed Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)Asia average* (75%)Asia average* (72%)Asia average* (70%)ALTHOUGH ANNUAL ATTRITION RATE HAS BEEN DECREASING...ALTHOUGH ANNUAL ATTRITION RATE HAS BEEN DECREASING...Proportion of new account openers over the last 12 months Percent of respondents; N = 416 With new institutions Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)31%Annual attrition rate26%21%With existing institution199819992000...CONSUMERS ARE RETICENT ABOUT CONSOLIDATING ALL OF THEIR FINANCIAL SERVICES RELATIONSHIPS WITH ONE INSTITUTION...CONSUMERS ARE RETICENT ABOUT CONSOLIDATING ALL OF THEIR FINANCIAL SERVICES RELATIONSHIPS WITH ONE INSTITUTIONNumber of banking relationshipOneMultiple Source: McKinsey Proprietary Asia PFS Survey, 2000Percent of respondents agree/strongly agreeI believe consolidating all accounts would be to my benefitI prefer to deal with one institution for all my financial needsIndiaIndonesia ThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeChinaKoreaHong Kong TaiwanAsia average 47%Asia average 53%AND CONSUMERS IN CHINA ARE PRICE SENSITIVE AND WILLING TO SHOP AROUNDAND CONSUMERS IN CHINA ARE PRICE SENSITIVE AND WILLING TO SHOP AROUNDPercent strongly/somewhat agree; N = 4,088Shopping around for financial product is worth the effortIf I had to choose, I would prefer to use a financial institution that gave one or two percent more return on my money rather than high level personal serviceAsia average 61%Asia average (50%) Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)IndonesiaChinaTaiwanMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesIndiaKoreaSingaporeHong KongAS A RESULT, CONSUMERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE DISLOYAL AS THE GROW RICHERAS A RESULT, CONSUMERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE DISLOYAL AS THE GROW RICHER * 1999 figures Source: EIU Viewswire, McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 survey (based on high & middle income groups)Percent strongly/somewhat agree; N = 4,088Proportion of respondents loyal to current institutionsGDP/capita* US$IndiaIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesChinaKoreaSingaporeHong KongTaiwanCustomer demand for more to stay loyal Greater competitive intensityArtificially high due to: Limitations on foreign banks Smaller number of major local banksAGING POPULATION CONCERNED ABOUT LONG TERM RETIREMENTAGING POPULATION CONCERNED ABOUT LONG TERM RETIREMENT19992005E199565+ 199040-64 Changing population composition profile in China 1990-2005 Millions of people20-39CAGR Percent+4+4+1“I am concerned about having enough money for retirement” Percent of respondents N = 4111,1311,2111,259Source: 1999 McKinsey Asia PFS survey; government statistics, McKinsey analysis22-2930-3940-4950-59AgeStrong Agree/agree1,328CONSUMERS’ WORRIES JUSTIFIES SINCE CURRENT PORTFOLIOS TOO CONSERVATIVE AND RELY ON OTHERSCONSUMERS’ WORRIES JUSTIFIES SINCE CURRENT PORTFOLIOS TOO CONSERVATIVE AND RELY ON OTHERS公司资助退休计划 Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups), MASTaiwanChinaHong Kong长期退休投资的主要手段资产政府退休计划不动产投资人寿保险共同基金银行存款High growth vehicleGroup venture信用卡的渗透率低与其说是缺少需求，不如说是缺少供给信用卡的渗透率低与其说是缺少需求，不如说是缺少供给Supply of credit hindered by...人民银行对透支的管理很严以避免信用风险 缺少整合的支付网络以推动有效的交易过程 电讯线路陈旧导致数据传输速度太慢 在中国没有个分交易历史 由于缺乏对风险的控制和管理导致风险较高，银行对授信态度保守Credit product penetration Mortgage loanChina USCredit cardPersonal loanOverdraftCar loan对信用消费的看法不是未来增长的障碍 对信用消费的看法不是未来增长的障碍 Growth rate of total transaction volume and cards in circulation RMB 2,422 billions 180 million cards中国人说他们不愿意借钱 ... 回答者的赞同率“我相信除了买房子之外借钱是不明智的… in fact, both mortgage market and personal loan market have been growing rapidlyAgreeNeutralDisagree100%100%19981999 Source: Asia PFS Survey 1998-20002000100%Mortgage balance RMB millions199819991997199619951994TransactionsCards 5 year CAGR 99%要增加产品的使用率，银行应确定不同消费产品的关键购买行为 要增加产品的使用率，银行应确定不同消费产品的关键购买行为 Percent or mean score* of product holders * 5 = very important; 1 = not important Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)Top 3 reasons for choosing financial products in China证券值得信任的有实力的公司最好的服务便利性共同基金公司的声誉家庭内部不同基金的切换Access to representatives汽车/个人贷款有竞争力的利率审批周期的长短很好的个人服务和职业化按揭有竞争力的利率审批周期的长短灵活的偿付条款和Quick loan turnaround key for credit productBrand/reputation key for investment…增加对消费者的教育将会是增加试用和使用投资产品的关键因素 …增加对消费者的教育将会是增加试用和使用投资产品的关键因素 Percent; N = 251Reasons for not investing in mutual funds/securitiesI do not have enough money to invest in stock/mutual fundsI am afraid of investment risksI am not familiar with stock market/investment funds and do not know what to invest我常去的金融机构不提供股票交易/共同基金Low returns on mutual funds/stocks教育消费者很好地理解风险，和运用金融产品获得长期地财务目标 将最初的投资要求设定在一定的水平上以鼓励投资Actions to be taken by banks Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)Primary Importance因为消费者对回报和风险关系的认知程度不够因为消费者对回报和风险关系的认知程度不够How good do you think the return is for PFS product?1.002.003.004.005.001.002.003.004.005.00How risky do you think the PFS product is?China Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)China Hong KongVery highVery lowVery lowVery highHKDesiredMutual fundsInsuranceSecuritiesBank depositsBondsOVERALL, TO ATTRACT CHINESE CONSUMERS, CONVENIENCE AND COMPETITIVE PRICE ARE KEYOVERALL, TO ATTRACT CHINESE CONSUMERS, CONVENIENCE AND COMPETITIVE PRICE ARE KEYMain criteria when choosing a primary bank By income and age Percent of respondentsOthersExtensive branch/ ATM networkConvenienceMiddle incomeUpper incomeBelow 39Above 39Importance of competitive price when choosing a bank By income and age Percent strongly agree/somewhat agreeMiddle incomeUpper incomeBelow 39Above 39QuestionIf I had to choose, I would prefer to use a financial institution that gave one or two percent return on my money than high level personal service?IncomeAgeALLIANCE WITH LOCAL BANKS IS ALSO CRITICAL TO GAIN CHINESE CONSUMERS AS THEY PREFER LOCAL OVER FOREIGN BANKSALLIANCE WITH LOCAL BANKS IS ALSO CRITICAL TO GAIN CHINESE CONSUMERS AS THEY PREFER LOCAL OVER FOREIGN BANKSPercent strongly/somewhat agree; N = 4,088Most consumers consider it important to deal with local institution ...MalaysiaChinaTaiwanSingaporeIndonesiaIndiaKoreaThailandPhilippines Hong Kong… they don’t see the benefit of foreign bankAsia average (68%)Asia average (33%) Source: McKinsey’s proprietary PFS 2000 Survey (based on high & middle income groups)Question: Dealing with a local institution is importantQuestion: Entry of foreign buyers will benefit meBRANCH REMAIN KEY AS THEY VALUE PERSONAL INTERACTIONBRANCH REMAIN KEY AS THEY VALUE PERSONAL INTERACTIONPercent of the respondents strongly agree/agree, China N = 416, Asia N = 4,088 Source: McKinsey Proprietary Asia PFS Survey, 2000I prefer to deal with a live person at branch or on phone rather than machinesMalaysiaIndonesia TaiwanIndiaPhilippinesThailandHong KongSingaporeChina KoreaI am usually the first to try a new technologyI try new technologies when they have proven at least short track of recordI try new technologies when they have become widely acceptedI avoid trying new technologies until absolutely necessaryReceptive to technologyAsia average = 62%BUT THEY ARE OPEN TO INNOVATIVE CHANNELSBUT THEY ARE OPEN TO INNOVATIVE CHANNELSI intend to use internet bankingPercent of respondents strongly agree/agree Source: McKinsey Proprietary Asia PFS Survey, 2000I would open my banking account with my local supermarket if it offers banking services supported by a well known and respected local/international bankChina PhilippinesIndiaMalaysiaIndonesiaSingaporeTaiwanHong KongKoreaThailandAsia average = Asia average = 38% 许多现金渠道的运用如ATM等的比例还是非常小… 许多现金渠道的运用如ATM等的比例还是非常小… 对比其他亚洲国家，在中国ATM机的使用率还是非常低的… * Banking customers who use ATM at least once a month Source: McKinsey 1999 PFS surveyATM usage in AsiaPossible reasons for under utilization ATM机的获得性有限 银行的网络间没有整合 功能不够完毕 客户的态度 (如对现金存款的拒绝等)回答者的比例Once a weekOnce a monthHong KongTaiwanChinaIndiaAsia average = 48%12%...BUT A HIGHER PENETRATION OF ATM WILL BOOST THE USAGE...BUT A HIGHER PENETRATION OF ATM WILL BOOST THE USAGE Source: Central Bank report; government statisticsPenetration of ATM in AsiaPeople per ATM – 1999USIndiaChinaPhilippinesIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaSingaporeTaiwanHong KongKoreaCAGR of total number of ATMs – 1993 - 9915N.A.66724627161410N.A.Opportunity to build more ATMs especially given the high demand for 24 x 7 availabilityPHONE BANKING COULD PROVIDE NEAR-TERM MIGRATION OPPORTUNITYPHONE BANKING COULD PROVIDE NEAR-TERM MIGRATION OPPORTUNITY Source: McKinsey 1999 PFS Survey; International Data CorporationHong KongPhilippinesTaiwanChinaSingaporePercentage using phone-banking more than once a monthChinese consumers indicate willingness to use phone banking ...KoreaMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandPhone line penetration… it has sufficient infrastructure in place for potential growth%Sufficient infrastructure in place Need to set-up efficient call center systems (technology, processes, attitude)India%Question:I could handle by financial needs over the phone and would not use branch if such a service existedAsia average = 38%CONTENTCONTENT1. Overall opportunity 2. PFS Survey findings 3. Customer segmentation 4. ImplicationsUSUAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTION APPROACH TO SEGMENTATION IS NO LONGER ADEQUATEUSUAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTION APPROACH TO SEGMENTATION IS NO LONGER ADEQUATEUsual strategic response to customer needs Limited segmentations based on: Balances Income Demographics Little product differentiation Proliferation of channels with limited integrationEffective segmentation allows financial institutions to... Develop target segment specific offerings and product campaigns Prioritise resources and investments Align staff skill development Market and educate customersFUTURE WINNING FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WILL EMPLOY NEED-BASED SEGMENTATION FUTURE WINNING FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WILL EMPLOY NEED-BASED SEGMENTATION Which customer groups to attract? How to maximize share of wallet? How to retain best customers? Ability to buy products or servicesPropensity to aggregate/ buy products or services (loyalty)Need based segmentation based on consumer attitudes, e.g., Family involvement in decision making Financial balance Risk adversity Price sensitivities Convenience Financial advice and planning Retirement needs Account consolidation Satisfaction with current banks Internet security Internet banking High and middle income customersNeed- and attitude- based clusteringSEVEN SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED IN ASIA SEVEN SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED IN ASIA Traditional savers Have basic banking needs Seek convenience Prefer low-risk products like deposits and insurance Modern planners Most sophisticated banking customers Desire e-banking and financial planning Potential switchers Dissatisfied with current financial institutions Most likely to switch banks Simplifiers Wish to simplify financial life by consolidating accounts E