梵蒂冈

演讲和公开声明 Current International Trends and World Peace当前国际流行时尚和世界和平 Expanded Version of Delivery at The Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences扩大社会科学版的宗座科学院在该交付 Vatican City梵蒂冈城 April 28, 2007 2007年4月28日 Thank you very much for this generous introduction and, above all, thank you for inviting me here.非常感谢你的慷慨介绍，首先，感谢你们邀请我来到这里。 For somebody who has had the honor of having audiences with three Popes and to have respected and admired the role of the Church over the centuries, to be able to be in the Vatican with a group dedicated to these purposes means a great deal.对于有人谁曾与教皇有三个观众荣誉和尊重，钦佩的几个世纪以来，教会的作用，能够在梵蒂冈与专注于这些目的，一组意义重大。 I had some perplexities on how to address the group, so I am speaking from notes, and then I will rewrite the text and send it to the Academy for distribution.我曾就如何处理组，所以我讲的一些困惑的笔记，然后我将改写文本和发送分配到学院。 I have been a policymaker, and I have been a professor and I have therefore experienced the different perspectives from which to view international affairs.我一直是决策者，我一直是教授，因此，我已经历了从不同的角度来查看国际事务。 As a professor, I could choose my subjects, and I could work on them for as long as I chose.作为一名教授，我可以选择我的科目，我可以对他们的工作，只要我的选择。 As a policymaker, I was always pressed for time, and I had to make decisions in a finite time frame.作为一个决策者，我总是赶时间，我不得不作出在有限时间内作出决定。 As a professor, I was responsible primarily for coming up with the best answer I could divine.作为一名教授，我是负责来最好的回答，我就可以神为主。 As a policymaker, I was also responsible for the worst that could happen.作为一个决策者，我也负责最坏的可能发生。 As a professor, the risk was that the important would drive out the urgent.作为一名教授，风险是重要的将驱逐迫切。 As a policymaker, the risk was that the urgent would drive out the important.作为决策者，风险是，紧急将驱逐重要。 So how to find the right perspective?因此，如何找到合适的角度？ The role of the Church, as Pope John Paul II said to me once, is to stand for truth, and truth cannot be modified according to the contingencies of the moment.教会的角色，教皇约翰保罗二世，对我说一次，是捍卫真理，而真理不能修改根据目前的紧急情况。 I agreed with that as a philosophical statement.我同意作为一个哲学语句。 The prophet deals with eternal verities.与永恒的真理的先知交易。 The policymaker lives in the world of the contingent; he or she must deal with partial answers that hopefully are on the road to truth.决策者生活在世界的队伍，他或她必须面对这一切希望在真理的道路，是部分。 Contingent answers are always somewhat inadequate; but the attempt to achieve the ultimate in a finite period of time can produce extraordinary disasters.然的回答总是有些不足，但在试图达到在一定的时间可以产生非常有限灾害期间的极致。 Crusades have caused even more casualties than wars of national interest.十字军东征，造成国家利益的战争比甚至更多的伤亡。 Therefore how to balance the road to the ultimate with the needs of the moment is what policymakers have to deal with, and it is from this perspective that I would like to talk about the current international situation as I see it.因此，如何平衡的道路，与当下的需要，最终是决策者必须处理，并从这个角度，我想有关当前国际形势谈谈我所看到它。 The unique aspect of the current international situation is that, for the first time in history, it is global in a genuine sense.当前国际形势独特之处在于，这在历史上第一次，它是在一个真正意义上全球性的。 Until the end of World War II, the various continents pursued their histories almost in isolation from each other.直到二战结束时，几乎在各大洲追求彼此孤立的历史。 There was no significant way, except by trade, that the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire could interact with each other.没有重大的，除由贸易，即罗马帝国和中华帝国可以互相交流。 The same was true through the centuries that followed with respect to the various empires and institutions in different parts of the world.同样是真实的，通过几个世纪，随着帝国的各个方面以及在世界各地机构之后。 For two hundred years, Europe was the dominant element in international affairs.两百年了，欧洲是在国际事务中的主导因素。 What we consider international relations today really dates back only to the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648.我们今天真的考虑国际关系可以追溯到的仅是1648年威斯特伐利亚条约。 After the suffering caused by religious wars, a new international concept was needed.经过宗教战争造成的痛苦，一个新的国际概念是必要的。 That international concept had various elements: it introduced for the first time the notion of sovereignty, that countries were supreme within their borders and that no other country had the right to intervene in their domestic affairs.这种国际概念有各种要素：它首次引入了独立主权的概念，即国家在其境内最高，并且没有其他国家都无权干涉其内政。 The borders defined the reach of international law.边界确定了国际法范围。 The use of force across borders could be defined as illegal or as aggression.跨国界使用武力可以被定义为非法或侵略。 Then, in the eighteenth century, the sovereign state became identified with the nation.然后，在十八世纪，成为主权国家的国家认同。 It was a new idea that legitimacy was established by grouping people of a common language in the same political institution.这是一个新的想法，合法性由分组相同的政治制度的人民建立一个共同的语言。 As a result, the international politics that developed were based on a multiplicity of sovereign states.作为一个结果，那么发达的国际政治是基于主权国家的多样性。 Peace depended on two attributes: first, a certain equilibrium of power, that is to say, no nation should be strong enough to dominate the others; second, the notion of justice of the various states had to be sufficiently comparable, so that they did not solve all their problems by force.和平取决于两个属性：第一，权力的某种平衡，也就是说，任何国家都不应强大到足以支配其他人;第二，各国司法的概念必须有足够的可比性，这样他们就武力不能解决所有的问题。 These attributes of the European system were later defined as "international relations".欧洲系统，后来这些属性定义为“国际关系”。 China never lived in a world of equal states.中国从来没有生活在一个平等国家的世界。 It was always the most powerful state in its region until it became a subject of foreigners in the nineteenth century.这一直是本地区最强大的国家，直到它成为一个在19世纪的外国人的问题。 China never had to live in a system of equilibrium with its neighbors and, until the twentieth century, no Asian state participated until Japan emerged.中国从来没有生活在一个与邻国平衡制度，并直到二十世纪，没有一个亚洲国家参加，直到日本出现了。 I have said the international system is now global.我说，现在是全球性国际体系。 It is also instantaneous.这也是即时的。 In the nineteenth century, it took three weeks for a message to get from London to Vienna.在十九世纪，用了三个星期的消息，从伦敦到维也纳。 Therefore at the Congress of Vienna, it was not possible to instruct the ambassador by telling him what to say.因此在维也纳会议，这是不可能的指示，告诉他该说些什么大使。 He had to be instructed in the concepts of foreign policies.他必须在外交政策的概念指示。 This had the enormous advantage that it obliged the ministries to outline their strategic concepts.这有巨大的优势，它迫使各部概述其战略构想。 Today ambassadors or plenipotentiaries are instructed precisely on what to say, which means that at home, people think primarily of the next day or the next week, and they are not obliged by the diplomatic process to conceptualize their foreign policies.今天已指示大使或全权代正是在说什么，这意味着在家里，人们主要在第二天或下一周的想法，他们不是外交进程必须构思其外交政策。 Of course, it had never happened that one could observe what was occurring in real time.当然，从来没有人这样，人们可以看到什么是实时发生。 All of this accelerates policymaking to a point that makes it extraordinarily difficult to develop the concepts that are needed at the moment when concepts become more and more important.所有这些都加速了决策到一个点，使得它非常难以开发的是在需要的时刻，当概念变得越来越重要概念。 The international system is in a state of upheaval, but there are different kinds of upheaval in different parts of the world.国际系统正处于动荡状态，但也有不同种类的动荡，在世界的不同部分。 One characteristic is that the nation and the state, as we have known it, are in the process of transformation in most parts of the world.一个特点是，民族和国家，因为我们都知道它，在转型，在世界大部分地区的过程中。 So some of what were thought of as universal principles of international relations are changing.所以，什么是作为国际关系的普遍原则，改变了一些想法。 In Europe, the nation state is in the process of being diminished.在欧洲，民族国家是在被削弱的过程。 The European Union is supposed to replace it, but the reality is that Europe is in transition between a past that it has rejected and the future which it has not yet reached.欧洲联盟应该代替它，但实际情况是，欧洲是过去之间的过渡，它已拒绝，它尚未达到的未来。 Until the middle of the twentieth century, the European nation state could appeal to its citizens for great sacrifices on behalf of the nation.直到二十世纪中叶，欧洲民族国家的公民可向国家为代表的巨大牺牲。 Today the European nation state can demand much fewer sacrifices.今天，欧洲的民族国家可以要求少很多牺牲。 To be willing to sacrifice, one has to believe in the future as being more important than the present.要甘于奉献，人们必须相信，未来比现在更加重要。 When the satisfaction of the present becomes a principal aim, the capacity for sacrifice for either domestic or international politics diminishes.当目前的满意度成为一个主要目标，为牺牲国内或国际政治的能力减弱。 Therein resides one of the deeper causes of disagreement between Europe and America.其中居住的分歧更深欧洲和美国之间的原因之一。 America is still a nation in the traditional sense and, rightly or wrongly, it can demand sacrifices of its people.美国仍然是一个传统意义上的国家，无论对错，它可以要求其人民的牺牲。 For most Europeans now, peace is an overriding objective, and that affects the capacity to conduct traditional foreign policy.对于大多数欧洲人现在，和平是一个首要目标，而且会影响能力开展传统外交政策。 I am not attaching value judgements to this.我不附加价值判断这一点。 For all these reasons, for the North Atlantic countries, the so-called soft power issues become the dominant issues in their relation to each other and to other nations.由于所有这些理由，北大西洋国家，所谓的软实力问题成为其相互关系和其他国家占主导地位的问题。 In this manner, globalization has become a dominant issue.在这种方式下，全球化已成为一个主要问题。 A gap is opening up between the economic world and the political world.差距是一个开放的世界之间的经济和政治的世界。 The economic world runs on globalization, but the peoples of the world live in nations.经济全球化的世界上运行，但世界各国人民的生活。 The impact of globalization is inherently differential; it is in the nature of the market.全球化的影响是本质不同，它是在市场的性质。 Those who suffer setbacks as a result expect help from their governments, and governments seek to bring about reform.那些谁遭受挫折，结果从他们的期望帮助各国政府和各国政府寻求实现改革。 But there is no real structure for the necessary sacrifices.但有没有必要的牺牲的真实结构。 As a result, governments can lose respect even when the economy is growing.因此，政府会失去尊重即使经济正在增长。 Polls in almost every country show that there is less confidence in governments than there was earlier; that may be due to the quality of the government, but it may also be inherent in the situation.几乎在每一个国家民意调查显示，在政府没有那么早比有信心，这可能是由于政府的质量，但它也可能在这种情况所固有的。 The Asian states, by comparison, are still nations in the original sense with quite well-recognized international borders which conduct foreign policy on the basis of a strategic assessment that they make of the role they can play in the world, on the impact they can have on their neighbors and on the consequences they want to bring about by their conduct.亚洲国家，相比之下，仍然是原来意义上的国家中有相当公认的进行了战略评估，使他们能够发挥他们的作用在世界上的影响，他们可以依据国际边界的外交政策对他们的邻居和造成的后果，他们希望把他们的行为所左右。 The states are larger than the European model.这些国家是欧洲模式比大。 In China, most provinces, or many provinces, have a larger population than the largest European countries.在中国，大多数省份，或许多省，有一个比欧洲最大的国家更多的人口。 Japan is the second largest economy in the world.日本是世界第二大经济体系。 Each of these countries is undergoing a transition of its own.这些国家的每一个经历了其自身的过渡。 Japan, at this moment, is moving from a period when acquiescence of the American leadership role was the condition of its economic growth, and when Japan did not conduct a very active foreign policy, into considering three options: one, to continue the present relationship with the United States; two, to adopt an independent course in elaboration of the national interest; three, moving towards Asia, and even towards China, into some sort of community.日本，在这一刻，正在从一个时期，美国的领导作用默许是其经济增长状况，而当日本并没有考虑到三个进行了非常积极的外交政策：一，继续目前的关系与美国，二是通过在拟订的国家利益的独立的课程;三，对亚洲移动，甚至对中国，到一些社区排序。 At this moment, Japan is still committed to the American relationship, but the discussions beneath the surface are looking at these options in a way that has not happened previously.在这个时刻，日本仍是致力于美国的关系，但在表面之下的讨论是在一个还没有发生以前的方式寻找这些选项。 Then we have the situation in Korea, which is fundamentally an issue of whether it is possible to bring about the denuclearization of North Korea.然后我们在朝鲜半岛局势，这是从根本上是否有可能实现朝鲜无核化的问题。 The US, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea all agree that North Korea should denuclearize yet have so far proved unable to impose their will on a country of 20 million with the most decrepit economy in the world and the most oppressive government.美国，中国，日本，俄罗斯，韩国都认为朝鲜应该无核化迄今尚未有证明不能强加给一个20万人口的国家与世界上最破旧的经济和最暴虐的政府把自己的意志。 Every step of the way is contentious.每走一步是有争议的。 The fact remains that if denuclearization is not achieved, the impact on the rest of the world in demonstrating how one becomes a nuclear power is so enormous, that it simply cannot be permitted.事实是，如果不实现无核化，对世界展示了如何在一个休息成为一个核国家的影响是如此之大，它根本不能被允许的。 If anyone had told me, during my secret trip in 1971, what the Chinese economy would look like today, I would have thought it was a fantasy.如果有人告诉我在1971年期间，秘密访问了我，什么是中国经济会像今天，我还以为这是一个幻想。 In 1971, China had no consumer industry and no automobiles, no significant heavy industry, no trade with the United States. 1971年，中国没有消费行业，也没有汽车，没有明显的重工业，没有与美国的贸易。 When we opened to China, one of the moves we made to show the Chinese that we were willing to deal with them was to permit American tourists visiting Hong Kong to buy $100 worth of Chinese-manufactured goods.当我们开到中国，我们的行动向我们显示了中国愿意同他们处理是允许美国游客来港购买100美元的中国制造的商品价值之一。 Now China is running a huge export surplus.现在，中国是一个巨大的出口顺差运行。 Recently, I made a speech in China in which I said, "The rise of China is inevitable."最近，我在中国做了讲话，我说：“中国的迅速崛起是不可避免的。” And that is true.这是真的。 We must get used to that proposition.我们必须习惯这个主张。 There is nothing we can do to prevent China from continuing to grow.我们没有什么可以做，以防止中国持续增长。 Nevertheless, I received some letters after my speech asking, "Are you implying that America is on the decline?"不过，我的发言后，我收到一些来信问：“你的意思是美国在减少呢？” My answer is, "No, I am not saying America is on the decline, but the outcome of the rise of China depends importantly on how we handle international affairs from here on in."我的回答是：“不，我不是说美国在下降，但对中国崛起的结果很大程度上取决于我们如何处理从英寸这里国际事务” First, China has enormous problems of its own.第一，中国有自己的巨大问题。 At any moment, there are 100 million Chinese on the road, looking for jobs, coming from the countryside into the cities.在任何时候，有100万的道路中，找工作，从农村到城市来。 The cities require a new infrastructure.这些城市需要新的基础设施。 The interior of China is at the level of the least developed countries.对中国内地是最不发达国家的水平。 The coast of China is at the level of the most advanced countries.对中国沿海是最先进国家的水平。 It has never before happened that a country could develop in this manner.它从未发生是一个国家能够以这种方式发展。 That is the big challenge to the Chinese.这是很大的挑战中。 This is why for the next decade or so, they will not engage in international adventures.这就是为什么在未来十年左右，他们将不会参与国际冒险。 At the same time, the influence of the Chinese, because of their economic capacity, their political skill and their growing military strength in the surrounding countries is going to grow.与此同时，对中国的影响，因为他们的经济能力，他们的政治技巧和不断增长的周边国家的军事实力将会增长。 It is a twofold challenge for Western strategy: one, to remain engaged in Asia; two, to see whether the generation of Chinese that is now growing up can develop a sense that the United States and the Western world are potential partners rather than permanent adversaries.这是一个西方战略双重挑战：一，留在亚洲的业务;二，看是否是中国的一代，现在长大了可以开发一种感觉，即美国和西方世界的潜在的合作伙伴而不是永久的敌人。 That will determine how China will use its strengths in ten or fifteen years from now.这将决定中国将如何使用从现在起在十年或十五年的实力。 It is also the fundamental challenge that we face in that relationship.这也是我们的根本挑战，在这种关系的脸。 It is partly a cultural problem.这部分是一个文化问题。 American history dates back 200 years.美国的历史可追溯到200年。 That is shorter than the history of most individual Chinese dynasties.这比大多数人中国朝代的历史较短。 Americans are convinced that they have the best governmental system in the world.美国人相信，他们有世界上最好的政府体制。 But the Chinese think that they have managed 4,000 years of history before America ever existed, and therefore they react neuralgicly to American lectures on how they should reform themselves.但中方认为，他们有4000多年的历史之前，美国曾经存在的管理，因此他们的反应neuralgicly美国应如何改革自己的讲座。 Americans are very pragmatic.美国人很务实。 They think every problem has a solution and that that solution can be achieved in a very brief period of time.他们认为每一个问题都有一个解决办法，这种解决办法可以在很短的时间内实现。 By contrast, the Chinese think in a more historical, long-term manner.相比之下，中国认为在更多的历史，长期的方式。 So how to mesh the long-range thinking of the Chinese with the practical thinking of America is one of our big tasks in the decades ahead.因此，如何网与美国的实际思想中中长程思想，是我们最大的任务之一，在未来几十年。 In the long term, the challenge of Asia may be the most important.从长远来看，亚洲的挑战或许是最重要的。 In the short term, the challenge of the Middle East is the most dangerous.从短期来看，中东的挑战是最危险的。 The Middle East is in the position of Europe in the seventeenth century before the Treaty of Westphalia.中东是在欧洲面前的威斯特伐利亚条约十七世纪的位置。 The state has no firm foundation because almost all states were created after World War I by foreign countries to suit their own interests.该国没有坚定的基础，因为几乎所有国家都建立在外国第一次世界大战后，以满足自己的利益。 The nation has even less meaning because its borders do not coincide with ethnic realities and so, therefore, the Middle East is organically in turmoil.这个国家甚至更少的意义，因为它的边界不重合，所以与民族的现实，因此，中东是有机的动荡。 When a religious ideology of a fundamentalist nature is added to that mix, dialogue collapses because dialogue must be based on the premise that there is some objective criterion, like reason, while fundamentalism recognizes only one truth.当一个原教旨主义性质的宗教意识形态添加到该组合，对话，因为对话必须是崩塌的前提是有一些客观的像原因，而原教旨主义只承认一个事实。 The religious wars of the seventeenth century were ended by exhaustion.十七世纪的宗教战争是结束了疲惫。 The challenge of our times is whether these can be ended by reason before a catastrophe or by exhaustion afterwards.我们时代的挑战是，是否可以将这些结束了一场灾难的原因之前或之后用尽。 But reason requires a Western presence and incentives to bring about some kind of equilibrium.但是，西方的存在理由要求和奖励办法，带来一些平衡类。 Two issues confound the international community on the Middle East above all others: Palestine and Iraq.有两个问题混淆对上述所有其他中东问题的国际社会：巴勒斯坦和伊拉克。 The argument that the Palestinian issue is the key to Middle East peace is only partially valid.那种认为巴勒斯坦问题是中东和平的关键，只是部分有效。 The issue of radical Islam transcends the Palestinian issue.激进的伊斯兰问题超越了巴勒斯坦问题。 It is important, therefore, that an outcome on Palestine be clearly achieved by moderate leaders rather than radical pressure.这是重要的，因此，结果是对巴勒斯坦温和派领导人清楚，而不是激进的压力实现。 In some respects, the conditions for this are favorable.在某些方面，这种情况的条件十分优越。 There is consensus about the outcome (even in Israel): the 1967 borders, except for the settlements around Jerusalem, a demilitarized Palestinian state with its capital in the Arab part of Jerusalem, return of refugees only to the Palestinian state.有对结果（即使在以色列）达成共识：1967年的边界，除了耶路撒冷周围，一个非军事化，其首都的巴勒斯坦国在耶路撒冷阿拉伯部分，仅向巴勒斯坦难民返回国家的定居点。 What is lacking are governments in both Israel and among the Palestinians that are strong enough to bring it about.什么是缺少的是在以色列和巴勒斯坦人之间的强大到足以促成此事的政府。 The United States, the European Union and moderate Arab states need to cooperate to develop a plan and then conduct the negotiations to implement it.美国，欧洲联盟和温和的阿拉伯国家必须合作制定一个，然后进行谈判，以实现它。 The challenge of Iraq is far more complex.伊拉克面临的挑战更为复杂。 Optimists and idealists posited at the beginning that a full panoply of Western democratic institutions can be created in a time frame the American political process will sustain.乐观者和理想主义者假定在一开始时是西方民主机构的充分一整套可在一个时间框架，美国政治进程将持续创建。 Reality is likely to disappoint these expectations.现实是这些期望可能会失望。 Iraq is a society riven by centuries of religious and ethnic conflicts; it has little or no experience with representative institutions.伊拉克是由宗教和种族冲突的世纪四分五裂的社会，它已很少或没有代表机构的经验。 The challenge is to define political objectives that, even when falling short of the maximum goal, nevertheless represent significant progress and enlist support across the various ethnic groups.目前的挑战是确定的政治目标是，即使下降的最高目标相去甚远，但代表着重大的进展，并争取各族裔团体的支持。 Western democracy developed in homogeneous societies; minorities found majority rule acceptable because they had a prospect of becoming majorities, and majorities were restrained in the exercise of their power by their temporary status and by judicially-enforced minority guarantees.西方的民主社会发展的均质;发现多数人统治少数人接受，因为他们有机会成为多数，而且多数是在其权力行使他们的临时身份和司法强制执行少数担保的限制。 Such an equation does not operate where minority status is permanently established by religious affiliation and compounded by ethnic differences and decades of brutal dictatorship.这样的方程不操作的地方建立少数民族的地位是永久的宗教信仰和民族差异和复杂的残酷数十年独裁统治。 Majority rule in such circumstances is perceived as an alternative version of the oppressio