中大型沼气工厂的成本效益分析及可持续发展分析

Folie 1 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Cost benefit analysis of MLBGPs and financial sustainability 中大型沼气工厂的成本效益分析 和经济可持续性分析 Joachim Clemens, Bonn Folie 2 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Content 内容 • Brainstorming 洗脑 • Presentation • Joint Calculation 计算 • Discussion 讨论 Folie 3 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Definition: Cost-benefit analysis 定义：成本效益分析 helping to appraise, or assess, the case for a project or proposal, which itself is a process known as project appraisal; and an informal approach to making decisions of any kind. 有利于提出并了解一个项目或者提议的案例，这本身就是一个项目提议过 程，并且是一个作出决定的非正规的方法 Under both definitions the process involves, whether explicitly or implicitly, weighing the total expected costs against the total expected benefits of one or more actions in order to choose the best or most profitable option. The formal process is often referred to as either CBA (Cost-Benefit Analysis) 不仅定义相关过程，是否清楚或不清楚，衡量整体期望的投资消费，而不 是为了达到一定效益的一两个行动，而以此选择最好或更好的适宜性选择。 正事的过程一般都涉及经济效益分析。 Folie 4 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Who profits how? 谁受益，怎么受益 • Planners & constructors: sell products 者和施工者：出售产品 • Politicians: 5 years plan and/or a vision 政策决定者：5年计划或者设想 • NGOs: limited to one/few aspects of life 非政府组织者：限制到生活中的一个或者几个方面 • People: better environment? 人们：生活环境空间更好？ Folie 5 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH The frame of CBA – your frame 成本效益分析框架-您的框架 • Why do you need a biogas plant? 为什么您需要建造一个沼气厂？ – To treat waste 处理废物 – To recycle nutrients and humus 获得营养物质和腐植质 – To gain renewable energy 获得可再生能源 • What can be the alternative? 什么是可替代选择？ – Composting 堆肥 – Incineration 燃烧 – Maybe you need a combination of different technologies? 或者需要一系列不同技术的结合 Folie 6 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Costs of a biogas plant 沼气厂的成分费用 • Planning 设计 • Construction 建造 • Operation 操作 • Maintenance 维护 Or 或者 • Fix costs 固定投资 • Operation costs 操作投资 • Labour costs 实验室费用 • Other costs 其他费用 Folie 7 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Benefits 效益 • Waste fee: 废物收费 • Biogas: 2.5- 5 RMB more as compared to the normal price 沼气：2.5-5 人民币，和正常价格比还是很高的 • Organic fertilizer: in Germany, around 2-5 €/m³ 有机肥料：在德国，一般是2-5欧元/m³ • CDM: per ton CO2 清洁发展机制：每吨CO2 • Direct subsidies (e.g. for construction): up to X% of the investment 明显投入（例如建造费用）：一般是投资的X%。 • Reduced smell: no price 有味气体去除：没有投资 Folie 8 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Planning 设计 Try to eliminate as much as possible uncertain questions: 尽可能试图避免不确定问题： • From where do you get the substrate? 底物获得途径 • How long will you get the substrate? 底物获得的时间长短 • Will the substrate change? 是否需要替换底物 • What is the biogas yield of the substrate? 底物的沼气产量 • How much does the biogas plant cost? 沼气厂的投资情况 • Do you have access to consumers of biogas? 是否你建立了良好的沼气出售途径 • What do you do with the digestate? 如何处理发酵后的剩余产物 Folie 9 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH P-Example: Animal husbandry P-实例：动物资源管理 • No waste fee 不用购买底物 • Good source of material, because it is constantly produced and does not change a lot. 很好的底物资源，因为它可以不断的产生，并且变化不是很大 • Find out their management for organic waste at the moment? 现在找出有机固体废物的管理方法 • Can the farm use the digestate like the organic waste? 农田可以把（动物粪便）发酵过的剩余物质向其他有机废物一样的使用吗？ – If yes,no additional cost for the biogas plant 如果是， 那么就没有沼气厂的其他额外费用 – If no, what will you do with the digestate? 如果不是，怎么处理消化液？ • CDM & subsidy possible 清洁发展机制和补助 Folie 10 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH P- Area necessary to use digestate sustainable 可持续使用发酵剩余物的P-地区 cows ha radius (km) 1000 500 1,3 5000 2500 2,8 10000 5000 4,0 pigs ha radius (km) 10000 333 1,0 50000 1667 2,3 100000 3333 3,3 Folie 11 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH P-Use of Biogas? 沼气的P-使用 • CHP (electricity and heat)? 电能和热能？ • Local supply for heating? 供区域热能的使用？ Folie 12 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Construction 建造 • If you don´t want to waste money: Build insulated fermenter & heat your fermenter to 38°C 如果你不想浪费钱：建造具有隔热层的发酵装置并将发酵罐加热到38°C • Best, use biogas to heat the fermenter (e.g. from CHP) 最好利用沼气来加热发酵罐（例如从CHP） http://www.aev-biogas.de/Deutsch/referenzenlw1/Winter.JPG Folie 13 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Operation & Maintenance 操作和维护 • How much staff do you need? 您需要多少员工？ • What analytical devices do you need? 您需要什么样的分析设备？ • How do you control the performance of your plant? 您如何控制您的工厂的运行？ • How frequently parts have to be maintained/replaced (stirrer, CHP) 多久进行一次厂内一些器件的维护和替换？ • What does a maintenance cost? 维护费用是多少？ Folie 14 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Recommendations – Planning 建议-设计 • Why do you want to build a biogas plant? 为什么您想建个沼气厂？ • Consider input and output 考虑输入和输出情况 • Try to fix long lasting contracts where/how to get substrate and how to use the substrate 争取达成长期持续性的，哪里，如何获得底物，以及如何使用这 些底物 • Get quotations from minimum three biogas constructors and include: 至少在3个沼气厂设计人员那里获得信息，包括： • Ask for methane yields according to the operation temperature (most yields are results at 38-40°C) 根据操作温度来看甲烷气体产量（一般最高产量在38-40°C） Folie 15 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Recommendations – Planning 建议-设计 • Usually, a constructor gives no guarantee on the success of a biogas plant, exception: the constructor is operator and defines the input 通常，一个建造人员都无法给予沼气厂的成功保障，除非 ：这个建造者也是一个操作者，能决定底物输入。 Folie 16 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Recommendation – Quotation 建议-实例引用 • Describe input and ask for pretreatment 描述底物并且询问预处理 • Fermenter: Hydraulic Residence time, organic loading rate, insulated & heated fermenter, stirrer, process control, CHP and flare, 发酵罐：水解停留时间，有机物负载量，防腐和加热的发酵罐，搅拌 ，过程控制， CHP和明火 • define for the quotation what to do with the digestate (storage?) 设计好引用内容，如何处理发酵剩余产物（储存？） • training of operators & maintenance, 操作者和维护者的培训 Folie 17 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Recommendations – Fermenter 建议-发酵罐 • Operate your biogas plant at „high“ temperatures (38°C) 在”高“温下运行沼气厂(38°C) • Use heat from the electricity production unit for heating the fermenter 从发电单元中获得热能来加热发酵罐 • Otherwise, you can´t get full energy recovery from your substrates! 否则，您就不能充分利用从底物中获得的能量 Folie 18 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Temperature 温度 (Biogashandbuch Bayern, 2004) days Folie 19 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Recommendations – Fertilizer 建议-肥料 • Calculate the amount of nutrients you produce 计算一下产出的营养物质的量 • Calculate the area of land required for fertilization 计算一下肥料应用所需的土地面积 • Take time into account when fertilizer is not used 考虑到不需要使用肥料的时间问题 • Try to make long lasting contracts for digestate use 尽力长久地保持对发酵剩余物的使用 • Think of posttreatment 考虑到后处理问题 Folie 20 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH A Study from Bavaria (Röhling ILB, 2008) Bavaria的学习研究 • Investment costs from 10 pilot plants: 3200 €/kWel (356 kWel) 10个试运行工厂的投入：3200 €/kWel (356 kWel) % Buildings厂房 46 Technical parts技术部分 26 CHP CHP 16 Machinery 机器 6 Consultant 顾问 2 own work 工作人员 3 Folie 21 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Fix costs 固定费用 • Write down (12 years): 写下 92000/a or 4.35 € cent • Interest (4.05%):利润 36000/a or 1.74 € cent • Insurance: 保险 6000/a or 0.29 € cent • Rent land: 租用土地 960/a or 0.05 € cent SUM: 总计 6.42 € cent (Röhling ILB, 2008) Folie 22 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Cost of operation 操作费用 • Maintenance: 维护 15600/a or 0.88 € cent • Energy 能量(13.51 € cent) 20000/a or 0.99 € cent • Working materials:材料 16600/a or 0.82 € cent • Process optimization 过程优化 2700/a or 0,12 € cent • Administration: 管理 4300/a or 0.24 € cent SUM 总计 2.98 € cent (Röhling ILB, 2008) Folie 23 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Working costs 操作费用 • Between 2.09 and 4.49 working hours per Kwel/a 工作时间是每Kwel/年2.09到4.49小时 • Around 40% for feeding and removing substrate 大约40%的费用用于底物输入和处理使用 • Around 10% maintenance 大约10%用于维护 • Around 15% administration 大概15%用于管理 (Röhling ILB, 2008) Folie 24 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Summary 总结 • Benefit: 效益 17.1 € cent • Fix costs: 固定费用 - 6.42 € cent • Operating costs 操作费用 - 2.98 € cent • SUM (for substrate and work原料和运行): 总计7.7 € cent (Röhling ILB, 2008) Folie 25 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Example 举例 • 10000 cows 100头牛 • Manure production: 8.4 m³/a cow (0.7 LU) 动物粪便产量： 8.4 m³/a cow (0.7 LU) • In 1m³ manure: 4 kg of N 每1m³动物粪便：4kg氮 • 1.4 m³ biogas/d LU, 60% Methane 1.4 m³沼气/d LU, 60%的甲烷 • 10 kWh/m³ Methane 10 kWh/m³的甲烷 • Electricity conversion: 38% 电能转化38% • Plant demand of N: 250 kg N/ha 植物对氮的需求： 250 kg N/ha • In wintertime no plant demand of N (3 months) 冬季植物不需要N源（三个月） Folie 26 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Questions 问题 • How much biogas can be expected at 38°C and at 20°C? 在38°C和20°C的预期沼气产量？ • How much electricity can be produced 预计的发电能力是多少？ • How much digestate is produced? 将会产生多少发酵剩余物？ • How much land do you need to apply the digestate? 您需要多少土地面积来应用这些发酵剩余物？ • According to the brainstorm, how much is the potential benefit? 通过讨论， 潜在的利润是多少？ Folie 27 Assistant Prof. Joachim Clemens, gewitra GmbH GTZ-Workshop „Biogas-Plant-technology planning, Beijing 22.-24. Nov. 2009 Organised by KNOTEN WEIMAR GmbH Thank you for your attention! 谢谢您的关注！ Content�内容 Definition: Cost-benefit analysis�定义：成本效益分析 Who profits how?�谁受益，怎么受益 The frame of CBA – your frame�成本效益分析框架-您的框架 Costs of a biogas plant�沼气厂的成分费用 Benefits�效益 Planning�设计 P-Example: Animal husbandry�P-实例：动物资源管理 P- Area necessary to use digestate sustainable�可持续使用发酵剩余物的P-地区 P-Use of Biogas?�沼气的P-使用 Construction �建造 Operation & Maintenance�操作和维护 Recommendations – Planning�建议-设计 Recommendations – Planning�建议-设计 Recommendation – Quotation�建议-实例引用 Recommendations – Fermenter�建议-发酵罐 Temperature�温度 Recommendations – Fertilizer�建议-肥料 A Study from Bavaria� (Röhling ILB, 2008)�Bavaria的学习研究 Fix costs�固定费用 Cost of operation�操作费用 Working costs�操作费用 Summary�总结 Example�举例 Questions�问题 Thank you for your attention!�谢谢您的关注！