第四次作业

nullTopic: The effects of international trade on Chinese carbon emissions: An empirical analysisTopic: The effects of international trade on Chinese carbon emissions: An empirical analysis专业：国际经济与贸易 组员：刘正凤 王苹苹 徐冬梅 杨琳 张艺馨 第七组Main contentsMain contentsTopic Key term definition Background introduction Literature review Research questions Theoretical framework Methodology and data resources Tentative conclusion Reference Key term definitionKey term definitionKey terms: input-output analysis (IOA): introduced by Leontief in the 1930s. It is a suitable tool for assessing resource or pollutant embodiments in goods and services on a macroeconomic scale and allows us to trace the total carbon emissions from the view of final demand, including the direct and indirect emissions attributed to the production of each industry . Key term definitionKey term definitionInternational trade: (Ahmad N, Wyckoff A W, 2003) International trade is the exchange of goods and services across international borders. In most countries, it represents a significant share of GDP. It is also a branch of economics, which together with International finance, forms the larger branch of International economics.Key term definitionKey term definitioncarbon emissions: (Li Y, Hewitt C N, 2008) Carbon emissions can best be defined as the harmful carbon substances which end up in the atmosphere. Such gases as carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide are produced by motor vehicles and industrial plants, and as they are greenhouse gases they contribute to the phenomenon of global warming. Background introductionBackground introduction International trade is an important impact factor to the carbon emissions of a country. As the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade since its entry into the WTO in 2002, the effects of international trade on carbon emissions of China are more and more significant. For China and other developing countries, technology improvement may be the most favorable and acceptable ways to reduce carbon emissions at present stage. In the future negotiations on emissions reduction, it would be more fair and reasonable to include the carbon emissions embodied in international trade when accounting the total emissions of an economy. Literature reviewLiterature review Lenzen M,(1998) explained that the main reason for the warming of global climate system is attributed to the continuing increase of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases as a result of human activities. Machado et al.（2001）proposed a general conclusion that the more open the economy is, the larger the impact of foreign trade has on a country’s carbon emissions. Wyckoff and Roop (1994) have estimated the carbon emissions embodied in international trade for particular countries as well as for the world economy Literature reviewLiterature reviewPan et al. (2008) used single-region input-output model and estimated that China’s net export of embodied energy and embodied emissions accounted for about 16% of the primary energy consumption and about 19% of its production emissions in 2002, respectively; the net exported emissions to the USA alone accounted for about 5% of China’s reported Production emissions in 2002. Atkinson et al. (2009) showed that China is a net exported country of carbon emissions in international trade. Literature reviewLiterature reviewShui and Harriss(2006) found that during 1997 2003 about 7%–14% of China’s CO2 emissions were the results of producing goods for exports to the USA; CO2 emissions of USA would have increased from 3%–6% if the goods imported from China had been produced in the USA by using the Economic Input Output-Life Cycle Assessment software. Xu et al.(2009) found that embodied energy and embodied CO2 accounted for about 12%–17% of China’s energy consumption and about 8%–12% of China’s CO2 emissions, respectively. Literature reviewLiterature review Above all, there were already some meaningful studies on carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade, further related researches would be necessary as the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade, especially as the development of processing trade. It will be necessary to distinguish the effects of processing trade and general trade on carbon emissions of China. RESEARCH QUESTIONRESEARCH QUESTION1) As a large country of foreign trade, what was the amount of the net emissions generated in China for foreign regions due to the import and export trade? 2) How did the effects of international trade on carbon emissions change from 2002 to 2007 in China? 3) Which sectors were the key emission sectors in Chinese import and export trade and how their roles changed from 2002 to 2007? THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKTHEORETICAL FRAMEWORK In this article, we will apply the theories of inter-industry [the theory was developed from the initial Absolute Cost theory（Adam Smith 1776）and the Comparative Cost theory（David Ricardo 1815 ）]and Economic Input-Output Life Cycle (Wassily Leontief 1970s)to study the three questions which were mentioned above. According to statistics, we will distinguish the effects of processing trade and general trade on carbon emissions of China.MethodologyMethodologyModel: Input-output analysis We intend to use Chinese input-output table and choose the carbon intensity of unit GDP (based on market exchange rate) to reflect the differences of carbon intensity of imports from different countries or regions. Then, calculate the ratios of carbon intensity of unit GDP between exporters (export to China) and China. And, weighted by the share of the respective exporting countries or regions over the total Chinese imports to obtain an average ratio. And lastly, we will multiply the carbon intensities of Chinese industries by the average ratio to obtain the relevant carbon intensities of imports. Data sourcesData sourcesThe latest Chinese Input-Output Tables of 2002 and 2007 (monetary unit) are released respectively in 2006 and 2009 (NBSNAD, 2006, 2009). The energy consumptions of 2002 and 2007 are from China Statistical Yearbook 2008 (NBS, 2004, 2008). Chinese export/import trade data are also from trade data of goods that were obtained from custom statistics directly . Data advantagesData advantagesBased on the Chinese input-output table, it may allow us to get a relatively accurate assessment of the emissions embodied in Chinese exports. By studying the energy consumptions of China, we may calculate the carbon intensity factors of imports from different regions. Additionally, we can use the data in IO tables to apply the method of pro-rating the import column to obtain the import use matrix. Data uncertaintiesData uncertaintiesOne is that, the input–output analysis itself has many inherent uncertainties. Another important uncertainty is the method of calculating the carbon intensity factors of imports from different regions may underestimate the emissions embodied in imported manufactured goods produced in the countries with larger proportion of tertiary industry and smaller proportion of secondary industry. Tentative conclusionTentative conclusionFirstly, we can conclude that the international trade had significant effects on Chinese carbon emissions, and the effects changed as the time went. Secondly, a more and more significant net exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions exists in Chinese economy and the effects of processing trade on carbon emissions were also more and more significant. Thirdly, technology improvement may be the most favorable and acceptable way for China and other developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions. Tentative conclusionTentative conclusionFinally, In the future negotiations on carbon emissions reduction, it would be more fair and reasonable to include the carbon emissions embodied in international trade when accounting the total emissions of an economy.ReferencesReferencesAckerman F, Ishikawa M, Suga M, 2007. The carbon content of Japan-US trade. Energy Policy, 35(9):4455–4462. Ahmad N, Wyckoff A W, 2003. Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods. OECD Publications. http://www.oecd.org/sti/working papers. Lenzen M, 1998. Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption: An input- output analysis. Energy Policy, 26(6): 495 506. Atkinson G, Hamilton K, Ruta G et al., 2009. Trade invirtual carbon: Empirical results and implications for policy. Background Paper for the WDR 2010.Thank you for your watching！ Thank you for your watching！