EMS排名Dec11

Chart 1: Nine-Month Sales Growth Percentage (Year Over Year) 0 5 10 15 20 25 11 EMS providers 9 ODMs 20 CMs combined 20.4% 12.1% 2.0% INSIDER Manufacturing Market Vol. 21, No. 12 December 2011 inside the contract manufacturing industry TM Some articles in this issue Cover story.............................................................................1 Respectable sales growth for the top 20 CMs. North American Group Not Keeping Up.............................4 Q3 and Nine-Month Results from Asia................................5 Upbeat Forecasts..................................................................7 News......................................................................................8 Although year-over-year growth in Q3 slipped into single digits for the top 20 contract manufacturers, their sales for the first nine months of 2011 still increased at a double-digit rate. Top-20 sales for the first three quarters totaled $235.4 billion, up 12.1% from the same period a year ago. But as de- mand in various markets continues to ratchet downward in Q4, doubts have arisen about where the full year will end up. The top 20 contract manufacturers consist of 11 EMS providers and nine ODMs, who together account for the vast majority of sales in the outsourc- ing space. (It’s hard to put a number on the top 20’s share, but MMI be- lieves that it’s well north of 80%.) Double-digit growth for the top 20 in- dicates that outsourcing was alive and well through first nine months of the year despite the sovereign debt prob- lems in Europe and a sluggish US economy. Yet when it came to growth, the 11 EMS providers presented a far better picture than the ODM group did. Nine-month sales of the 11 EMS pro- viders totaled $138.8 billion, up 20.4% year over year. In contrast, the ODM group’s sales of $96.6 billion rose just 2% from a year earlier (Chart 1). Hence, the EMS group grew 18.4 percentage points faster than the ODMs did over the first three quarters. As has been written here before, the Double-Digit Growth through Three Quarters PC market, which had once fueled superior growth for the ODM sector, has put a damper on ODM growth in 2011. Note that the top 20 contract manufac- turers presented here contain two changes from the 20 large CMs tracked earlier for Q1 and Q2 (Sept., p. 1-3). EMS provider Shen- zhen Kaifa Technol- from 12.1% (Chart 2, p. 2). So Hon Hai was responsible for 6.7 percentage points, or more than half, of the Top- 20 growth rate. Likewise, the EMS group’s growth rate looks less impres- sive without Hon Hai. Sans Hon Hai, EMS group sales would have in- creased by 11.7% instead of 20.4%. So Hon Hai added 8.7 percentage points to the EMS group’s growth rate. Still, even without Hon Hai, the re- ogy has been added to the group, while ODM Inventec Appliances has been removed. With these changes, MMI believes it has assembled the 20 largest CMs. Gargantuan Hon Hai Precision Industry (aka Foxconn), which repre- sented 34.7% of top-20 sales, weighed heavily on collective results. Exclud- ing Hon Hai, nine-month growth for the 19 other players drops to 5.4% Chart 2: Nine-Month Sales Growth Percentage (Year Over Year) Excluding Hon Hai 0 5 10 15 20 25 10 EMS providers 9 ODMs 19 CMs combined 11.7% 2.0% 5.4% 2 Manufacturing Market Insider, December 2011 maining 10 EMS providers were 9.7 percentage points of growth ahead of the ODMs (Chart 2). At 27.4% in US dollars, Hon Hai’s nine-month growth rate earned first place among the top 20. Of the seven CMs that achieved US-dollar growth rates in double digits, only two were ODMs. Yet ODMs made up a majority of the CMs whose nine-month sales dropped in US dollars. Five out of the seven companies with sales declines were ODMs (Table 1 below). Top-20 net income for the first nine months totaled about $3.9 billion. (The total is approximate because not all companies fol- low the same account- ing rules.) But net income performance was out of step with sales growth as net earnings declined by around 15%. Just four companies succeeded in improving their nine- month net income, and )%ro$SUM(srerutcafunaMtcartnoCtsegraL02ehtrofstluseR1102htnoM-eniNdna3Q:1elbaT ynapmoC foredroni( )selas.om-9 yramirP -isub ssen -daeH sretrauq stropeR $SUni 11'3Q selas 11'2Q selas -.rtQ .rtq .ghc 01'3Q selas .ry-.rY .ghc 11'3Q ten tiforp 11'2Q ten tiforp 01'3Q ten tiforp 3-1Q 11' selas 3-1Q 01' selas .ry-.rY .ghc 3-1Q ten11' tiforp 3-1Q ten01' tiforp iaHnoH )nnocxoF( SME nawiaT oN 485,92 252,72 6.8 965,62 3.11 756 054 856 137,18 661,46 4.72 995,1 847,1 atnauQ retupmoC MDO nawiaT oN 907,9 415,9 1.2 196,8 7.11 781 681 381 318,72 278,52 5.7 865 015 scinortxelF SME eropagniS seY 440,8 845,7 6.6 224,7 4.8 031 231 441 154,22 829,91 7.21 793 323 lapmoC scinortcelE MDO nawiaT oN 229,5 511,6 2.3- 917,6 9.11- 27 411 121 778,71 420,12 0.51- 603 095 nortsiW MDO nawiaT oN 107,5 925,5 1.3 880,5 1.21 57 68 301 719,51 752,41 6.11 032 082 tiucriClibaJ SME adirolF seY 082,4 822,4 2.1 168,3 9.01 411 501 95 734,21 123,01 5.02 472 141 *nortageP MDO nawiaT oN 053,5 336,3 2.74 126,3 7.74 31 )32( 54 609,11 733,01 2.51 )03( 451 cetnevnI MDO nawiaT oN 144,3 120,3 9.31 670,3 9.11 82 2 52 013,9 397,8 9.5 25 79 ygolonhceTVPT MDO nawiaT seY 558,2 606,2 5.9 059,2 2.3- 01 82 23 251,8 993,8 9.2- 08 211 acitseleC SME adanaC seY 038,1 928,1 0.0 745,1 3.81 05 64 12 064,5 056,4 4.71 621 36 ICS-animnaS SME ainrofilaC seY 796,1 476,1 3.1 886,1 5.0 81 7 13 049,4 148,4 1.2 83 36 pmoC-laC scinortcelE SME dnaliahT oN 032,1 890,1 0.21 130,1 3.91 9 7 61 633,3 577,2 2.02 32 44 adsiQ MDO nawiaT oN 779 250,1 1.7- 130,1 2.5- )21( 4 41 631,3 591,3 8.1- )84( 69 afiaKnehznehS ygolonhceT SME anihC oN 747 986 4.8 968 0.41- 21 01 21 491,2 373,2 5.7- 82 93 kramhcneB scinortcelE SME saxeT seY 075 685 6.2- 416 1.7- 02 51 32 496,1 577,1 6.4- 94 16 suxelP SME nisnocsiW seY 835 955 8.3- 655 1.3- 81 22 72 566,1 385,1 2.5 46 27 -neicSlasrevinU lairtsudnIcifit SME nawiaT oN 484 584 2.0- 945 8.11- 71 11 82 484,1 664,1 2.1 04 26 erutneV SME eropagniS oN 674 705 2.6- 005 9.4- 92 43 63 344,1 624,1 2.1 59 79 NARTmA ygolonhceT MDO nawiaT oN 973 653 5.6 636 4.04- 8 3 51 462,1 785,1 4.02- 32 34 ytilibA esirpretnE MDO nawiaT oN 844 073 2.12 534 0.3 41 6 32 181,1 122,1 3.3- 82 46 .gva/latoT 462,48 256,87 1.7 354,77 8.8 074,1~ 642,1~ 616,1~ 093,532 789,902 1.21 349,3~ 956,4~ -htiw.gva/latoT iaHnoHtuo 976,45 004,15 4.6 388,05 5.7 318~ 597~ 859~ 956,351 128,541 4.5 443,2~ 119,2~ setaregnahcxeegarevA.retrauqgnidnopserrocehtrofetaregnahcxeegarevahtnom-eerhtagniylppaybsrallodSUotdetrevnocerewseicnerrucSU-nonnistluseR gnitnuoccaemasehtwollofseinapmocllatonesuacebetamixorppaeraslatottiforpteN.evreseRlaredeFSUehtmorfatad1102dna0102ylhtnomnodesaberew .ssenisubSMDerocs'nortagePotdnopserrocstluseR*.sredloherahsotelbatubirttaeraerehnwohsstiforptenynapmoC.dradnats 3Manufacturing Market Insider, December 2011 three of them were EMS providers – Celestica, Flextronics and Jabil Cir- cuit (Table 1, p. 2). Quanta Comput- er was the only ODM able to raise its net profit from the year-ago period. For Q3, the top 20 combined for sales of $84.3 billion, up 7.1% sequen- tially and 8.8% year over year. Hon Hai did not affect these results much: The company raised the sequential rate by less than percentage point and the year-on-year result by less than two percentage points (Table 1). Q3 growth rates of the EMS and ODM groups were not that far apart. On a sequential basis, the ODMs’ Q3 revenue grew 8%, somewhat better than the EMS group’s 6.5%. On the other hand, EMS group sales in Q3 rose 9.5% year over year, topping the ODMs’ 7.9% (Table 2 above). EMS providers’ Q3 sales of $49.5 billion accounted for 58.7% of the top-20 total. The top 20’s increase of 8.8% year over year in Q3 signals a slowdown from Q1 and Q2 growth rates of 15.4% and 12.8% respectively. None- theless, eight CMs achieved double- digit growth in Q3, led by Pegatron at 47.7% (in US dollars). Partly offset- ting these gains were year-over-year sales declines at nine CMs, nearly half the top 20 (Table 1). On a sequential basis, four compa- nies produced double-digit sales in- creases in Q3, and three of them were ODMs. Sales fell or remained flat at seven CMs, of which five were EMS providers (Table 1). The 20 CMs together earned net income of approximately $1.5 billion in Q3. Compared with the prior quar- ter’s total, Q3 net profit went up about 18%, more than twice the rate of sales growth. A majority of the top 20 im- proved their net income from Q2 to Q3. But a year-over-year comparison for combined Q3 net profit is not so favorable. Net profit in the quarter dropped by about 9% versus revenue growth of 8.8%. Only four CMs suc- ceeded in growing their net income from the year-ago quarter (Table 1). MMI compiled quarterly operating margins for eight out of the nine ODMs in the top 20. (ODM TPV Technology was left out of this analy- sis because it does not report results consistent with those of the other ODMs.) For Q3, overall operating margin for the eight ODMs was a mere 0.88%, virtually the same as the prior quarter’s 0.87% and down from 1.8% in the year-ago period. By contrast, five large US-traded providers collec- tively generated a GAAP operating margin of 2.6% for Q3 (Nov., p. 2). Aggregate operating margin for the eight ODMs has sunk to a level that makes EMS margins look almost rich by comparison. ODM operating margins in Q3 ranged from -1.14% for Inventec to 4.16% for Ability Enterprise. Out of the eight ODMs, only Ability Enter- prise and Compal Electronics had Q3 operating margins above 2%. What’s more, Q3 net margin for the ODM group ended up about 110 basis points below that of the EMS group. The ODM group’s margin was around 1.1% compared with the EMS provid- ers’ margin of around 2.2%. Q3 net margin for the entire top 20 came in at approximately 1.7%, up about 10 basis points sequentially but down about 40 basis points year over year. One can rank the top 10 CMs by nine-month sales and compare that order to the 2010 standings (May, p. 2). Table 1 lists CMs in order of nine- month sales. That order has Hon Hai and Quanta in first and second place, as they were in the 2010 standings. Flextronics has moved up one rank to third position, replacing Compal, which dropped to fourth place. Fifth through tenth remained the same as last year, the order being Wistron, Jabil, Pegatron, Inventec, TPV and Celestica. This order based on nine- month sales is the same one that result- ed from ranking companies by first-half sales (Sept., p. 3). Editor’s note: This analysis pre- sents a rough approximation of EMS versus ODM sales since a number of the contract manufacturers listed here do both EMS and ODM work. Compa- nies were classified as EMS or ODM based on which model represents their primary business. In addition, sales of some EMS providers include non- EMS revenue from such activities as component-level manufacturing. Correction: Due to a misinterpreta- tion of Pegatron’s financial statements, the Q1 and Q2 net income figures for Pegatron’s DMS business in Table 1 on page 3 of the September edition represent profit before taxes. Net prof- it results presented for the Pegatron business in this month’s Table 1 on page 2 correspond to net income after taxes. )%ro$SUM(ssenisuByramirPybdepuorGeraseinapmoCerehWstluseRgnirapmoC:2elbaT fo.oN -apmoc sein yramirP ssenisub 11'3Q selas 11'2Q selas -.rtQ .rtq .ghc 01'3Q selas .ry-.rY .ghc 11'3Q ten tiforp 11'2Q ten tiforp 01'3Q ten tiforp 3-1Q 11' selas 3-1Q 01' selas .ry-.rY .ghc 3-1Q ten11' tiforp 3-1Q ten01' tiforp 11 SME 184,94 554,64 5.6 602,54 5.9 570,1~ 938~ 650,1~ 538,831 403,511 4.02 537,2~ 217,2~ 9 MDO 387,43 791,23 0.8 742,23 9.7 593~ 704~ 065~ 555,69 486,49 0.2 802,1~ 749,1~ 02 462,48 256,87 1.7 354,77 8.8 074,1~ 642,1~ 616,1~ 093,532 789,902 1.21 349,3~ 956,4~ .dradnatsgnitnuoccaemasehtwollofseinapmocllatonesuacebetamixorppaeraslatottiforpteN 4 Manufacturing Market Insider, December 2011 sredivorPSMErellamSdnareit-diMeniNrofstluseRPAAG1102htnoM-eniNdna3Q )%ro$M(aciremAhtroNnidesaB noitazinagrO 11'3Q selas 11'2Q selas -.rtQ .rtq .ghc 01'3Q selas .ry-.rY .ghc 11'3Q ssorg .gram 11'2Q ssorg .gram 01'3Q ssorg .gram 11'3Q .repo .gram 11'2Q .repo .gram 01'3Q .repo .gram 11'3Q -niten emoc 11'2Q -niten emoc 01'3Q -niten emoc 3-1Q 11' selas 3-1Q 01' selas .ry-.rY .ghc 3-1Q ten11' .cni 3-1Q ten01' .cni sredivorPSMEenolA-dnatS cinorTyeK 8.96 0.66 6.5 3.36 1.01 2.7 6.7 4.9 3.2 5.2 1.4 2.1 5.1 7.1 2.991 9.671 6.21 5.3 5.8 notrapS 8.15 9.06 9.41- 8.54 3.31 1.61 1.71 4.51 6.4 3.02- 3.9 5.1 )7.0( 2.4 1.361 4.421 1.13 3.3 0.7 CTMS 1.44 8.84 7.9- 4.56 6.23- 7.8 5.9 0.21 2.2- 0.1- 8.4 )5.1( )0.1( 6.2 2.941 0.891 6.42- )7.1( 8.7 norTamgiS lanoitanretnI 1 9.93 9.83 6.2 2.83 5.4 9.8 1.9 1.11 4.1 6.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 6.0 3.711 2.111 5.5 7.0 2.3 scinortcelECEI 9.43 6.43 9.0 3.72 0.82 8.81 8.71 5.71 1.7 6.7 8.7 6.2 3.1 6.1 7.401 6.87 1.33 7.5 9.3 smetsyShcetroN 3.82 8.72 9.1 0.62 1.9 6.11 6.11 1.11 5.1 2.1 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.58 4.27 6.71 0.1 4.0 .gva/latotbuS 8.862 1.772 0.3- 9.562 1.1 4.11 9.11 3.21 4.2 7.2- 1.5 3.4 5.1 9.01 7.818 5.167 5.7 5.21 7.03 seinapmoCcilbuPregraLfostinUSME -celEllabmiK puorGscinort 2 8.241 1.361 4.21- 9.771 7.91- 6.1- 4.0 1.0 )1.1( 3.1 )2.0( 9.405 5.455 9.8- 3.3 0.31 scinortcelESTC snoituloS.gfM 0.77 9.87 4.2- 6.76 9.31 6.4 5.0 3 1.0 4.532 2.091 8.32 'seirtsudnInevaR tinuSME 1 3.71 5.61 7.4 8.71 5.2- 2.31 4 0.41 4 9.21 4 3.35 1.25 3.2 .gva/latoT 0.605 6.535 5.5- 1.925 4.4- 3.216,1 3.855,1 5.3 1 .13rebotcOdedneretrauqehtroferastluser3Q 2 .sisabenola-dnatsanostluserPAAGotdnopserroctonodemocnitendnagnitarepO 3 emocnignitarepotnemgeS .stnemgesssenisubotdetacollatonnoillim7.0$fosesnepxegnirutcurtserdedulcxe 4 .sesnepxeetaroprocdedulcxeemocnignitarepotnemgeS N. American Group Not Keeping Up So far this year, sales growth for a group of nine mid-tier and smaller EMS providers based in North Ameri- ca has not kept up with the rate at which revenue has increased for the 11 largest EMS providers. For the first nine months of 2011, sales for the North American group totaled $1.6 billion, up 3.5% year over year. In contrast, top-11 sales for the period grew at a 20.4% clip (see Chart 1 on p. 1). Even if one took a conservative approach and removed Hon Hai Pre- cision Industry from the top-11 com- parison, the North American group still lagged the rest of the top 11 by 8.2 percentage points (Chart 2, p. 2). Despite the anemic single-digit re- sult for the North American group overall, five providers achieved dou- ble-digit growth for the first three quarters, led by IEC Electronics and Sparton at 33.1% and 31.1% respec- tively (table below). Two providers – Kimball Electronics Group and SMTC – saw their nine-month sales decline from the year-ago period. For the seven providers that report net in- come for their EMS operations, only two – IEC and Nortech Systems – boosted their nine-month net earnings from a year earlier (table). Q3 sales of the nine North Ameri- ca-based providers came to $506 mil- lion, down 5.5% sequentially and 4.4% year over year. Four of the nine recorded sequential declines in their Q3 sales. On a year-over-year basis, revenue growth ranged from -32.6% at SMTC to 28% at IEC. Compared with the year-ago quarter, four providers grew their Q3 sales at double-digit rates, while three endured revenue drops (table). The group of nine mid-tier and smaller providers consists of six com- panies in the EMS space, all publicly traded, and three EMS units within larger publicly held corporations. To- gether, the six stand-alone providers produced a Q3 gross margin of 11.4%, down 50 basis points sequentially and 90 basis points year over year. Three out of the six companies achieved two- digit gross margins (table). Q3 operating margin for the six- company subset amounted to 2.4%, down from 5.1% a year earlier. IEC was the margin leader at 7.1%. On a year-over-year basis, only one provid- er in the subset, Nortech, improved its operating margin. In addition, two of the EMS units – CTS Electronics Manufacturing Solutions and Raven Industries’ Electronic Systems Divi- sion – raised their segment operating margins from the year-ago quarter (ta- ble). Combined Q3 net income for the six stand-alone providers was $4.3 million, up from $1.5 million in the prior quarter but down from $10.9 mil- lion in the year-ago period. Their ag- gregate net margin for Q3 came in at 1.6%. Some salient snippets CTS Electronics Manufacturing Solutions, a unit of CTS. Q3 sales were lower than Q2 levels in all mar- kets except defense and aerospace. 5Manufacturing Market Insider, December 2011 Segment operating earnings in Q3 im- proved from the prior quarter, despite 2% lower sales, because of higher gross margins and a $2.7-million in- surance recovery. Compared with the year-earlier quarter, demand increased in defense and aerospace, communica- tions and industrial markets, partially offset by lower sales in computer and medical markets. IEC Electronics. The company reported that funding for several of its programs in the military/aerospace sector have not been released. IEC anticipates that funding release will be an issue for the December quarter and may extend into the following quarter. This sector represented 56% of sales in fiscal 2011 ended Sept. 30. The company expects revenue growth from its existing businesses to be between 9% and 14% for fiscal 2012. This outlook is below IEC’s long-term goal of 17% annual growth. Key Tronic. During its fiscal Q1 ended Oct. 1, the company achieved the highest quarterly sales in its histo- ry. Gross margin, which dropped to 7% from 9% in the year-ago quarter, was affected by product mix changes as well as expenses associated with several steep new program ramps. For fiscal Q2, the company expects sales of $75 million to $80 million and EPS of $0.15 to $0.20, both of which suggest sequential increases. Kimball Electronics Group, a unit of Kimball International. September quarter sales decreased 20% year over year as sales to medical and industrial control customers fell. Kimball attrib- uted the decline in medical sales to the expiration of a medical contract, the loss of which accounted for a $38-mil- lion drop in medical sales versus the year-earlier quarter. A 12% sequential decline in September quarter revenue was also driven by lower medical and industrial control sales. Kimball is closing its EMS facility in Wales (UK) as part of a European consolidation effort planned in 2008 and is also shuttering its EMS facility in Fremont, CA. Nortech Systems. Q3 revenue grew 9% year over year, while nine- month revenue increased by 18%. The company said revenue growth was led by its industrial and medical custom- ers, strongly aided by its two most re- cent acquisitions. Operating income in Q3 was $420,000, compared with $166,000 in the year-ago period. Macroeconomic uncertainty has affected Nortech’s customer base, most significantly in semiconductor capital equipment. However, demand is increasing from defense customers. Raven Industries’ Electronic Sys- tems Division. Sales for the quarter ended Oct. 31 went down 3% year over year, while operating income was relatively flat. The division continues to see a decline in its avionics-related business. Raven said it can count on this division to be a consistent genera- tor of strong cash flows. It is also get- ting more internal manufacturing business from Raven’s Applied Tech- nology Division. SigmaTron International. Given the continuing margin pressures in the EMS industry, the company was pleased to report that it remained prof- itable for fiscal Q2 ended Oct. 31. As the company has been reporting for some time, it is experiencing