[修订]美国国债：收益率

[修订]美国国债：收益率 美国国债:收益率 美国国债:收益率 Buttonwood 布雷顿森林体系 Not so risk-free 并非那么无风险 May 28th 2009 From The Economist print edition There are questions about the long-term appeal of American Treasury bonds 美国国债的长期表现令人怀疑 LIKE London buses, big events in America’s Treasury market all seem to come at once. In a week when the Treasury auctioned more than $100 billion of notes and bonds, ten-year Treasury yields surged to their highest level in six months, despite a buy-back offer by the Federal Reserve. That will raise the cost of finance for companies and homeowners. 就像伦敦巴士一样，美国债券市场的大事件都是毫无预兆就发生的。 在一周之内，财政部拍卖了多达1000亿美元的债权，尽管联储回购 了一部分，十年期国库券的收益率一路飙升到6个月以来的最高点。 这会加重公司和家庭的财务成本。 All this activity was inevitable once the authorities decided to combine a huge fiscal deficit with quantitative easing (expansion of the money supply). It has been accompanied by a sharp rise in the gap between short and long rates. The ten-year yield has risen from 2.08% on December 18th to 3.70% on May 27th. 一旦当权者决定将巨额的财政赤字和数量性政策(货币供给增加)相 结合的时候，所有的这些行为都是不可避免的。伴随着债券发放而来 的长短期利率之间的差距大幅增加。十年期债券的收益从12月18号 的2.08%上涨到了5月27号的3.70%。 Some of that rise in yields is undoubtedly due to investors switching back into shares on hopes that the global recession might end next year. But there have also been concerns about America’s long-term financial health. On May 27th Moody’s said it had no plans to reduce America’s coveted AAA debt rating. But on the same day John Taylor, a professor at Stanford University and the creator of the Taylor rule on monetary policy, wrote in the Financial Times that the American government “is now the most serious source of systemic risk.” 收益率上涨的从某种程度上说是令人猝不及防的，因为投资者在寄希 望于全球大萧条会在明年年底结束的基础上将投资转回了股票市场。 但是同样也存在着对美国长期财政健康度的担心。5月27号， Moody’s称他们还没有将美国的AAA级评级下调的计划。在同一天， 身为斯坦福大学教授同时也是货币政策上泰勒定律创建者的John Taylor在财经周刊上撰文称:美国政府现在处在最严重的系统风险 的萌芽阶段。 On the surface, the worries seem odd. Is America likely to default on its obligations? No. To put it another way, if the world ever got into a state where America did prove unable to pay, lots of other assets would have defaulted first. Even though the American budget position is deteriorating rapidly, it is still a lot healthier than that of either Italy or Japan. Both countries have been carrying debt/GDP ratios of more than 100% for years without suffering a meltdown. 从表面来看，这种担心让人觉得可笑。美国有可能会不履行自己的责 任吗,不会的，从另外一个角度看，如果世界陷入了一种连美国都被 证实如法偿还债务的境地的话，会有大量的资产在此之前就首先被拖 欠了。尽管美国的债务情况在逐渐恶化，但他仍然要比意大利或是日 本的债务状况健康的多。几年来，意大利和日本的债务 – GDP比率 都维持在大于100%的水平却没有彻底垮台。 Government bonds are generally regarded as risk-free in their home countries, because the government has the power to tax and to print money. Since America is the world’s largest economy, has the most liquid financial markets and operates the world’s premier reserve currency, the Treasury bond has been seen as the global risk-free asset. 通常政府债券在本国内被认为是无风险的，因为政府掌握着征税和印 制钞票的权利。自从美国成为世界最大的经济体，拥有着流动性最强 的金融市场以及操控着世界首要储备货币以来，美国国库券被认为是 全球最无风险的资产。 But that status implicitly rests on the belief that the American government will not exploit its advantages to the full. The same fiscal and monetary policies that seem appealing as a way of addressing domestic economic weakness also reduce the appeal of its debt to foreign investors. 但是这种情况潜在的基础是一种对美国政府不会把自身的 优势消耗殆尽的信赖。在拉动国内经济走出低迷方面具有吸引力的财 政和货币政策同样也削减了其债权对国外投资者的吸引力。 America does not formally need to default to penalise its creditors; it can simply let its currency decline. Short-dated Treasury bonds (those with a maturity of one-to-three years) have returned a healthy 18% in dollar terms over the last three years. But when translated into Chinese yuan that return dwindles to just 0.3%. 从形式上看美国没必要用违约的方式来惩罚借贷方，只要很简单的将 美元贬值就可以了。在过去三年里，用美元计价的短期国库券(期限 为1-3年的债券)健康程度恢复到了18%，但是兑换成人民币之后这 种健康程度的恢复减少到了只有0.3%。 History is full of examples of sovereign nations failing to pay their overseas creditors in full. When push comes to shove, governments are unwilling to impose the required level of austerity on their voters. This happened in the 1920s Weimar Republic, which opted for hyperinflation rather than paying the reparations bill, and in 1930s Britain, which abandoned the gold standard in the face of the Depression. (Note the results of the recent referendums in California, where voters rejected all budget-balancing proposals.) 历史上有太多这样的例子:主权货币国家沦落到要全额支付其海外借 贷方的地步。当努力争取变成强制要求时，政府不愿意将这种节衣缩 食强加到他们的选民身上。这样的事情发生在20世纪20年代的魏玛 共和国，他们选择了超级通货膨胀而不是支付赔款账单，同样的例子 是20世纪30年代在面对大萧条时弃用了金本位制的英国，(请注意 一下最近在加利福尼亚进行的全民投票，选民否决了赤字平衡的计 划) In countries that are frequent offenders, including those in Latin America, foreign creditors have in the past demanded that government debt be denominated in a foreign currency. America has been able to borrow in dollars. However, for foreign investors, that means Treasury bonds are not risk-free at all. 在包括拉丁美洲国家这样经常出问题的国家里，国外债权人 过去的做法是要求政府债券以外币标价。美国有能力用美元标价来借 钱。然而，对国外投资者来说，这意味着国库券并不是完全无风险的。 Even domestic investors might reflect on the potential for inflation to erode the real value of their holdings. Inflation-adjusted, the capital value of Treasury bonds fell by more than five-sixths between 1962 and 1981. 即使国内的投资者可能会考虑通胀对其拥有的真实资产的潜在吞噬 程度。用通胀调整后，1962到1981年间国库券的资本价值减少了5/6 还多。 Inflation-linked government bonds ought thus to be a more appropriate risk-free asset than conventional bonds. Foreign investors might calculate that, over the long run, a dollar decline would be matched by higher inflation, for which they would be compensated. However, the index-linked market is a lot less liquid than that for conventional debt. And cynics might wonder whether governments will really meet their obligations when faced with runaway inflation, rather than finding a way to “redefine” the statistics. 因此，与通胀有直接关系的政府债券应该比传统证券更适合做为无风 险资产。国外投资车可能是考虑，在经过一段时间后，美元贬值会伴 随着更高的通胀，因为这两者是要互补的。然而，与指标相关的市场 要远小于传统债务的流动性。而愤世嫉俗的人们可能还是要想在遇到 无法控制的通胀时，政府是否会真的实现自己的义务，而不是寻找一 种方法来重新定义统计表。 So what might replace Treasury bonds as the global risk-free asset? Some would opt for gold, although it pays no yield and its nominal value is highly volatile. China has no asset that seems appropriate. What about German government bonds? Fiscal policy is relatively prudent and the European Central Bank seems far more committed to fighting inflation and maintaining a stable currency than other monetary authorities. 所以，什么才是替代政府债券成为全球性无风险资产的可能 呢,，尽管没有收益率而且名义价值波动很大，可能一些人还是会选 择黄金。中国并没有看似合适的资产。那么德国政府债券呢,德国的 财政政策相对更透明而且欧洲央行同其他货币当局不一样，他们似乎 更倾向于应对通胀并且维持货币稳定。