外文资料翻译

淮 阴 工 学 院 毕业设计(论文)外文资料翻译 学 院： 经济管理学院 专 业： 国际经济与贸易 姓 名：   学 号：   外文出处： Asian Journal of Business Ethics 附 件： 1.外文资料翻译译文；2.外文原文。     指导教师评语：   年   月   日             签名：          （手写签名）   注：请将该封面与附件装订成册。 附件1：外文资料翻译译文 运用经济伦理分析人民币升值问题 卫阳、包春 林颖洁 摘要 自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，人民币兑美元汇率已引起各方关注。由于平衡的国际收支顺差，中国积累了大量外汇储备，且在人民币升值方面有压力。关于人民币升值问题已提出了一系列相互交织的经济和道德理论并且在中国受到广泛关注。本文是一个跨学科的研究，说明了跨经济学与伦理学之间的关系。本文分析了主要经济因素对人民币汇率走势及其升值的影响，然后讨论人民币升值的伦理问题，并总结了一些政策建议，以解决经济和伦理问题。 关键词：经济伦理，人民币，汇率，建议 一、 引言 在当今开放的经济中，受对外贸易中的汇率和其他经济制度的影响，已引起经济机构的关注并受到国家的一致好评的中国学者和他国学者都是一样的。根据宏观经济理论，并给出了一些假设，相对于外国产品价格，汇率的变化更会影响国内商品的价格，因此，财政支出结构将受到影响。一般来说，本币贬值能够刺激出口同时抑制进口。如果进口和出口的需求对价格有弹性，这将改善贸易平衡。在中国，20世纪90年代，人民币的贬值导致了国际收支逆差的平衡受到明显的影响。对于廉价的出口带给中国的竞争优势和短时间内国际收支赤字变成了盈余，使得官方外汇储备的不断增加。在最近的几年，人民币加速升值并没有导致出口量的下降，而美国并没有通过付款汇率变动的平衡取得预期的改善。同时，该人民币升值引发了一系列经济和伦理上的问题。事实上，在人民币升值带来的经济的影响的基础上伦理问题和经济问题可以合并在一起作为一个伦理问题。本文作为一个跨学科的研究，将会说明经济学与伦理学之间的相互关系。 自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，人民币兑美元汇率已经引起了多方关注，西方国家在中国人民币升值方面施加给中国巨大的压力。一些压力涉及到最有争议的问题——中国–美关系，例如：美国人认为人民币价值被低估，至使中国的国际收支顺差是建立在美国人经历一个巨大的国际收支赤字的基础上的。同样的，美国声称，中国工人在出口部门获得的是美国工人在美国的进口部门的利益，在另一方面，一些知名的美国经济学家，包括伯南克和约瑟夫斯蒂格利茨指出，人民币升值不会有效的降低国际收支逆差，因为美国从中国减少的进口量将会从越南和巴基斯坦等其他低成本国家的进口替代得到弥补。其关键是使美国储蓄率的增加要比许多亚洲国家低得多。另一方面，中国的经常账户盈余反映了其高额的国民储蓄率。除了中国和美国之间分布的问题，另一个伦理问题是一个主权或权利国家基于其公民的利益去管理自己的汇率。这些国际问题是非常复杂的，不同国家有不同的收益和成本的分配原则并没有被普遍接受；即使有，整个国家的分配效应也是难以衡量的。因此，我们的研究将集中在中国经济的边界内人民币升值的有关经济和伦理问题，包括中期和长期影响。 二、 影响人民币汇率走势的主要因素 我们预计人民币汇率总体呈上升趋势，但难以预测其变化幅度。本文将阐述几个有可能影响人民币汇率上升的几个因素。首先，经济的持续是人民币升值的强有力的支撑。虽然在第12个5年内国内生产总值目标增长速度一直降低，但仍处于7％的高水平。具有高成长性，外资的期望投资经济将继续保持强势，其为人民币升值提供了坚实的支撑。 其次，如果收支顺差继续增长，人民币升值的压力将会更大。2010年，中国的经常项目顺差是2062亿美元（USD），较去年增长25％，而外汇储备资产增长约为18％，这使人民币的升值超出了预期期望。 第三，一些国际因素可能影响人民币升值这一趋势。美国经济的增速预期将达到3％。其对世界经济增长的贡献较2010年更大。相比较而言，欧洲经济的增长不容乐观。在2010年上半年，为了偿还其债务，欧洲银行业借入4000亿欧元的款项。与此同时，欧洲各国政府也需要5000亿欧元来弥补他们的财政赤字，加上数百万或者更多的担保时，他们的债券将到期，欧洲金融市场将会发生第二轮的债务危机。为了保持财政的可持续性，欧洲各国政府必须减少公共支出。由于失业率非常高，内部增长乏力，因此，美元作为国际货币将比欧元更适合。关于美国交换货币贬值率将会持续很久的这一说法是不可能发生的，甚至有一个反向趋势的可能性。另一国际因素是，在货币汇率的冲突会影响到人民币汇率。在亚洲经济（除了日本）的增长的驱动下，亚洲经济体以外的国家（日本除外）的货币汇率已经从2000年的16.8 ％上升到2010年的25％ ，并预计将在2015年上升到30％。在另一方面，美国份额已经从23.6 ％下降到20.2 ％，在同一时期内，将在2015年全年进一步降至18.4 ％ ，大量从美国的定量宽松政策产生的美元已进入到寻找较高的回报率的新兴经济体这一阶段。数量庞大的热钱流入导致了相当大的升值压力，亚洲各国政府不得不干预市场经济以维持本国经济增长的稳定性。这一原因导致了汇率的国际冲突，资本管制和贸易的限制将被视为保护国家经济的必要手段。 第四个因素是世界主要经济体的通胀和不同国家之间的差利率。尽管美国经济在2011年可能开始恢复，但仍然有许多障碍。美国联邦储备将维持宽松的货币政策，以刺激经济。在同一时间，在欧洲国家的单一货币政策目标是稳定物价，使得通胀率限制在2％，所以欧洲国家不太可能进行宽松的货币政策。然而，当他们不得不收紧财政政策，以解决他们的欧债危机，欧洲央行将不得不使用货币政策来保持低利率。在另一方面，中国目前的名义利率是3.1％，这吸引了国际热钱的流入。国家给出了预期通胀，目前的利率没有足够高到可以以抑制通货膨胀的程度，所以中国利率将会继续上涨，随着中国货币政策的紧缩，利率将上升。预计中国与欧洲和美国的经济体的利率差将会扩大，从而吸引流入资本，这也增加了人民币汇率升值的压力。 第五，人民币国际化可能会影响汇率。全球金融危机产生的原因是以美元为主的国际货币体系动荡而产生的危险。中国持有大量的外国外汇储备，金额约2.65万亿美元，在美元资产持有中是一个很大的比例。根据美国财政部的估计，截至2010年10月，由中国持有美国国债的价值达9068亿美元，它代表了外汇储备总额的35％。因此，美元贬值带给中国巨大的影响并且促进人民币走向国际化。自2009年7月，使用人民币进行结算的贸易量逐渐增长。进来外汇市场每日交易量约达400亿美元。尽管规模比较小，但与使用美元、欧元、日元相比，这表明人民币在全球外汇市场成为一个新兴的角色，这使得中国政府将人民币推向国际。 第六，石油价格是可以减缓人民币升值的一个重要因素。早在2008年国际石油价格已经从每桶100美元跃升至140美元。中国进口其中约50％的石油，油价的增加对中国收支平衡产生不利的影响，这个因素带来的影响不同于那些有利于人民币升值的因素带来的影响。 基于上述分析和目前的经济环境下，我们预策，在不久的将来，人民币升值将是大趋势。虽然升值的幅度是不确定的，但以此为背景，我们可以讨论的人民币升值对中国的影响。 三、 人民币升值对中国的影响 人民币升值将会对整体经济和社会产生影响。这将直接影响到出口部门，对出口量、就业以及利润都会产生负面影响。这种负面影响将在不同方向、不同程度上影响到不同的行业和社会群体，从而产生 再分配效应。因此，人民币升值不仅是一个经济问题，还涉及到伦理问题。我们将分析人民币的升值影响的六个主要领域：外汇储备，进口/出口部门，就业，通货膨胀，生活水平和收入分配。 3.1对官方外汇储备的影响 从理论上讲，当人民币升值时，以国内货币计算的外汇储备的价值将相应贬值。由于美元资产代表官方储备的主要份额，美元贬值带来损失可能会相当大。政府应未雨绸缪，尽量减少由于人民币兑美元升值带来的亏损。由于中国拥有庞大的外汇储备量，即使在价值上损失的仅仅是1％，但它相当于50亿美元左右，这相当于大约400亿人民币。它代表一个巨大的机会成本，中国可将这些资金用于支持教育并改善穷人的医疗保健。由于人民币升值带来的外汇储备价值的损失是直接关系到中国中央货币当局的。人民银行和中国外汇管理局不会放任汇率发展到无法控制的地步。他们将采取行动引起国内外的广泛关注，并且外汇储备水平及其结构的变化已经成为人民币汇率可能变动信号。 3.2对进口和出口部门的影响 人民币升值将增加中国出口的国际市场价格，从而降低了其竞争力。如果出口价格保持在较低水平，利润将会减少。这将影响到很多出口的行业，主要是劳动力密集型产业。较低的利润，甚至破产，将减少企业生产和就业，导致失业率上升的低技术工人的情况。 在另一方面，进口量将会增加，因为在中国进口消费品和原材料会更便宜。对国际收支的影响取决于进出口需求弹性。如果弹性之和大于1（马歇尔 - 勒纳条件），国际收支会恶化，相反，国际收支在人民币升值后将增加。 目前，大多数出口导向型产业是劳动密集型和以美元为支付条件的产业。随着人民币升值，这些行业的利润将减少。不同于那些可通过成本等优势吸收损耗的资本和技术密集型产业，劳动力密集型产业价值增加是比较低的。所以他们的竞争力大大影响损失的成本优势。 然而，一些经济学家认为，人民币的升值对出口行业的影响或许不是特别严重。据估计，人民币每升值10％，中国的出口商和消费者会在国外的负担各5％左右，类似的实证研究也发现，价格出口弹性为-0.6左右。基于这些估计，如果人民币的有效汇率（出自一篮子货币）升值5 - 6 ％ ，即使假设该行业不通过提高生产率来提高利润，出口部门的利润也将最多下降1.5-1.8 ％ 。 此外，中国的出口商品结构是 55％以上都是出口加工。当出口价格因人民币升值提高，进口原材料成本将会降低。因此，出口加工部门感知汇率升值的灵敏度比其他出口行业要低。无论如何，出口部门降低生产成本和提高生产效率是对抗汇率升值带来的负面影响的有效手段。 附件2：外文原文 An ethical analysis of economic issues related to the appreciation of Renminbi Wei Yang & Kit-Chun Joanna Lam Abstract Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the exchange rate between China and USA has drawn a lot of attention. Because of the balance of payments surplus, China has accumulated a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and there is much pressure on the Renminbi (RMB) to appreciate. The appreciation of RMB has raised a series of intertwining economic and ethical concerns in China. This paper is an inter-disciplinary study to illustrate the inter-relationship between economics and ethics. We analyze the major economic factors affecting the trend of exchange rate of RMB and the effects of its appreciation. We then discuss the ethical implications of the appreciation and conclude with some policy suggestions to address the economic and the ethical concerns. Keywords Economic ethics . Renminbi . Exchange rate . Appreciation Introduction In an open economy, the effect of exchange rate on external trade and other economic institutions has drawn much attention among scholars in China and other countries alike. According to macroeconomic theory, given some standard assumptions, changes in exchange rate will affect the price of domestic goods relative to the price of foreign goods, and thus, the pattern of expenditures will be affected. In general, a depreciation of the domestic currency can stimulate exports while discouraging imports. If the demand for imports and exports are price elastic, there will be an improvement in the balance of trade. In China, the depreciation of Renminbi (RMB) in the 1990s resulted in an observable effect on the balance of payments deficit. The relatively cheap exports gave China a competitive advantage, and the balance of payments deficit turned into a surplus within a short time, accompanied by an accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves. In recent years, the accelerated appreciation of RMB has not resulted in a decline in the volume of exports, while USA has not achieved the expected improvement in its balance of payments through the changes in exchange rates. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB has raised a series of economic and ethical concerns. In fact, the ethical issues and the economic issues are intertwined as the ethical implications depend on the economic impacts of the appreciation. This paper serves as an inter-disciplinary study to illustrate the inter-relationship between economics and ethics. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the exchange rate between China and USA has drawn a lot of attention. Western countries have exerted great pressure on China to appreciate the RMB. The most controversial issues involve China–USA relationship. For instance, Americans may think that RMB is under-valued so that the balance of payments surplus in China is gained at the expense of the Americans who experience a massive balance of payments deficit. Similarly, it is sometimes claimed that the Chinese workers in the export sectors gain at the expense of the American workers in the import sectors in USA. On the other hand, some well-known economists in USA, including Ben Bernanke and Joseph Stiglitz, have pointed out that appreciation of RMB will not effectively lower the balance of payments deficit in USA since the reduction in imports from China will be replaced by imports from other low-cost countries like Vietnam and Pakistan. The key is to increase the saving rate in USA which is much lower than that in many Asian countries. On the other hand, the current account surplus of China reflects its high national saving rate (Fan 2011). Other than the distributional issue between China and USA, another ethical issue is related to the sovereignty or right of a country to manage its own exchange rate based on the benefit of its citizens. These international issues are very complicated, and there is no universally accepted principle for the distribution of benefits and costs across different nations; even if there were, the distributional effects across nations would be very difficult to measure. Therefore, our study will focus on the economic and ethical issues related to the appreciation of RMB within the boundary of the Chinese economy, including the medium and long run effects. Major factors affecting the trend of exchange rate of RMB We expect an upward trend of RMB exchange rate in general, but the magnitude is difficult to predict. There are several factors that may affect the situation. First, the sustained growth of the economy provides a strong support for the appreciation of RMB. Though the target growth rate of GDP in the 12th 5-year plan has been reduced, it is still at a high level of 7%. With an expectation of high growth, foreign investment in the economy will continue to be strong, providing a solid support for RMB. Second, if the balance of payment surplus continues to grow, there will be greater pressure for RMB to appreciate. In year 2010, China’s current account surplus is 206.2 billion US dollar (USD), representing a growth of 25%, and the growth in foreign reserve assets is about 18%. This heightens the expectation of appreciation. Third, some international factors may affect the trend. It is expected that the growth of the US economy will reach 3%. Its contribution to the growth of the world economy will be bigger than that in year 2010. Comparatively speaking, the growth of the European economy is not optimistic. In the first half of 2010, to repay their debts, Europe’s banking industry borrowed an amount of 400 billion Euros. At the same time, European governments also needed 500 billion Euros to pay for their fiscal deficits, plus several hundreds more as collaterals when their bonds will reach maturity. It is possible that the European financial market will have the second round of debt crisis. To maintain financial sustainability, European governments have to reduce their public expenditures. Since unemployment rate is very high, the internal engine for growth is weak. Therefore, the US dollar will perform better than the Euro as an international currency. It is unlikely that devaluation of the US exchange rate will continue for long, there is even a possibility of a reverse trend. Another international factor is that the conflicts over currency exchange rates will affect the RMB exchange rate. Driven by the growth of Asian economies other than Japan, the share of Asian economies (other than Japan) has risen from 16.8% in year 2000 to 25% in year 2010 and is expected to rise to 30% in year 2015. On the other hand, the share of USA has dropped from 23.6% to 20.2% within the same period and will drop further to 18.4% in year 2015. A large amount of US dollar generated from the quantitative easing policy of USA has flowed into the emerging economies in search of a higher rate of return. Faced with considerable pressure of appreciation caused by the huge inflow of hot money, Asian governments may have to intervene in the market to maintain the stability of economic growth of their countries. This has resulted in the international conflicts over exchange. Capital control and trade restrictions will be considered necessary to protect the national economy. The fourth factor is the inflation in major world economies, and the differential interest rates among different countries. Even though the US economy may start to recover in year 2011, there are still many obstacles. The Federal Reserve of USA will maintain an easy monetary policy to stimulate its economy. At the same time, the single monetary policy target in European countries is price stability which has constrained inflation rate to 2%, and they are not likely to carry out easy monetary policies. However, when they have to tighten fiscal policies in order to solve their debt crisis, the European Central Bank will have to use monetary policies to maintain a low interest rate. On the other hand, the current nominal interest rate in China is 3.1%, which is attractive to international hot money. Given inflationary expectation, the current interest rate is not high enough to curb inflation, which will continue to rise in the medium term. As China tightens its monetary policy, the interest rate will rise. It is expected that the interest rate differentials between China and the European and USA economies will widen, thus attracting an inflow of capital which puts pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Fifth, internationalization of RMB may affect the exchange rate. One lesson of the global financial crisis is that an international currency system which is based heavily on US dollar is volatile and risky. China is holding a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, amounting to about USD 2.65 trillion. A large proportion of it is in US dollar assets. According to the estimation of the US Treasury, up to October 2010, the value of US Treasury Bonds held by China amounts to USD 906.8 billion, which represents 35% of the total foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, China is most affected by the depreciation of US dollar and has the incentive to move towards internationalization of RMB. Since July 2009, the use of RMB for the settlement of trade has increased. Recently the volume of daily transaction in the foreign exchange market amounts to about USD 400 million. Even though the scale is relatively small compared with the use of US dollar, Euro, or Japanese Yen, it indicates the emerging role played by RMB in the global foreign exchange market and the determination of the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of RMB. Sixth, the price of oil is an important factor that could slow down the appreciation of RMB. The international price of oil has jumped from USD 100 per barrel in early 2008 to USD 140. The increase in oil price has an adverse effect on the balance of payments of China which imports around 50% of its oil. This factor will partially offset the other factors which are favorable to the appreciation of RMB. Based on the above analyses and the current economic environment, we expect that an appreciation of RMB would be the major trend in the near future, though the magnitude is uncertain. With this background, we will discuss the effect of appreciation of RMB on China. Effects of appreciation of RMB on China An appreciation of RMB would have an impact on the economy and the society as a whole. It will directly affect the export sector, with a negative effect on the volume of export, employment, and also profit. The effects will spread, affecting various sectors and social groups in different directions to a different extent, resulting in redistribution effects. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is not just an economic problem, but also involves ethical issues. We will analyze the effects of appreciation of RMB in China on six main areas: foreign reserve, import/export sector, employment, inflation, standard of living, and income distribution. Effect on official foreign exchange reserves Theoretically, when RMB appreciates, the value of foreign exchange reserves in terms of the domestic currency will depreciate accordingly. As US dollar assets represent a major share of the official reserves, the loss due to a big depreciation of US dollar can be considerable. The government should plan ahead to minimize the loss due to the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar. Since China has a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, even if the loss in value is just 1%, it amounts to around USD 5 billion, which is equivalent to about 40 billion RMB. It represents a massive opportunity cost for China as these funds can be used to support education and improve health care of the poor. The loss in value of foreign exchange reserve due to the appreciation of RMB is of direct concern to the central monetary authority of China. The Peoples’ Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange would find it unacceptable to let this go on without control. The actions they may take draw much attention from both inside and outside of China, and the level of foreign exchange reserves and their structural changes have become signals for possible changes in the exchange rate of RMB. Effect on import and export sectors The appreciation of RMB will increase the international price of China’s export, thus reducing its competitiveness. If the price of export is to be kept low, profit will have to be reduced. This will affect many export industries which are mainly labor intensive. The lower profit and even bankruptcy will cause companies to reduce production and employment, resulting in an increase in unemployment of low-skilled workers. On the other hand, the volume of import is expected to increase since imported consumer products and raw materials will be cheaper in China. The overall effect on the balance of payments depends on the elasticities of demand for import and export. It will deteriorate only if the sum of the elasticities is greater than one (Marshall–Learner condition). Otherwise, the balance of payments will actually increase upon the appreciation of RMB (Wang 2010). Currently, the majority of the export-oriented industries is labor intensive, and US dollars are used for payments. With an appreciation of RMB, the profit of these industries will decrease. Unlike capital and skill intensive industries which can absorb the loss in cost advantage by other advantages, the value added for labor-intensive industries is relatively low. So their competitiveness is much affected by the loss in cost advantage. However, some economists think that the effect of the appreciation of RMB on export industries may not be very serious. It is estimated that for a 10% appreciation, the burden on the exporters in China and consumers in foreign countries, respectively, is about 5%. A similar empirical study also finds that the price elasticity of export is around ?0.6. Based on these estimates, if the effective exchange rate of RMB (which is linked to a basket of currencies) appreciates by 5–6%, the profit of export sector will at most go down by 1.5–1.8%, even assuming that the industries do not respond by raising productivity. Besides, the structure of export in China is such that more than 55% are export processing. When the prices of exports are raised because of RMB appreciation, the costs of imported materials are lowered at the same time. Therefore, the sensitivity of this sector to an appreciation of the exchange rate is lower than other export industries. At any rate, a restructuring of the export sector to lower cost of production and to increase efficiency can be effective means to reduce the negative effect of the appreciation of exchange rate.