棉花走势预测 2012-2020

Cotton Economics Research Institute Policy Modeling Group Darren Hudson, Director Suwen Pan, Research Scientist Maria Mutuc, Post-Doctorate Research Associate Samantha Borgstedt, Publication Specialist Don Ethridge, Professor Emeritus GLOBAL COTTON OUTLOOK 2011/12 – 2021/22 Cotton Economics Research Institute Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics Texas Tech University Lubbock, TX 79409 Telephone: 806.742.2821 Email: darren.hudson@ttu.edu http://www.ceri.ttu.edu/policy Funding provided by the USDA/CSREES CERI TTU 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CERI TTU 3  ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS – Global growth is projected at 3.8% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012, slightly accelerating to 3.4% from 2013-2016 and slowing to 2.7% from 2017-21. This growth of 3% over 2013-21 is below the long-term growth rate of 3.7% from 1995-2008. – Economic recovery in the U.S. will remain fragile in 2012 at 1.1% as persistent high unemployment and low wage growth hold back demand growth.  COTTON MILL USE – Cotton consumption over 2011-21 is projected to grow at 1.9% - about the same as the long-term average. Mill use is projected to grow by about 30.8 million bales over the next ten years. – Mill use is projected to remain concentrated in Asia. By 2021/22, the nations/regions that lead the world in cotton mill use are projected to be (share of world mill use in parentheses): China (37%), India (20%), Pakistan (11%), Turkey (5%), Brazil (4%), and Bangladesh (4%).  COTTON PRODUCTION – As productivity gains have slowed for the time being, yield growth is projected to decelerate from 2011/12 to 2021/22, growing by 1% per year. This annual gain is lower than the long-term average yield gain of 1.43%. – World cotton production is projected to track the growth of mill use at 2%, increasing from 122 million bales in 2011/12 to around 140 million bales in 2021/22. This growth is also lower than long-term average of 2.1% in the absence of new yield-enhancing technologies and flat acreage. – By 2020/21, leading producers of cotton are projected to be (share of world production in parentheses): India (25%), China (24%), United States (13%), Pakistan (9%), and Brazil (7%).  WORLD COTTON TRADE – A steady growth in world cotton trade is projected at 3.4% on average - slightly below the 4.1% growth in the last 10 years. It is projected to increase from 36 million bales in 2011/12 to 49 million bales in 2021/22. 4 – China is projected to account for 38% of this increase along with (world import share in parentheses) Bangladesh (10%), Turkey (7%), and Pakistan (7%) by 2021/22. – The United States is projected to remain the world’s leading cotton exporter in 2021/22 with a 30% market share. Increased competition in the export market (with projected export market share in parentheses) will come from India (17%), Brazil (13%), Australia (11%), Uzbekistan (7%), and WCA (6%). CERI TTU 5 GLOBAL AND U.S. OUTLOOK CERI TTU CERI TTU 6  Global growth is projected at 3.2% in 2012, slightly improving to 3.4% from 2013-2016 and slowing to 2.7% from 2017-21. This is below the average rate in 1995-2008 (3.7%).  Growth in emerging and developing economies is also expected to slow to 5.5% in 2012 as the world economy weakens and as internal consumption slows down.  Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow to 1.3% in 2012 with some recovery at 1.9% over 2013-21.  Economic recovery in the U.S. will remain fragile in 2012 with growth at 1.1% as persistent high unemployment and low wage growth hold back demand growth.  China’s and India’s GDP growth is expected to remain robust but to decelerate in 2012 to 7.7% and 6.7%, respectively, from trade and financial spillovers from advanced countries.  Brazil’s economy is projected to grow at 3.7% in 2012, about the same growth as in 2011. REAL GDP GROWTH: MAJOR COTTON PRODUCING COUNTRIES REAL GDP GROWTH: ADVANCED & EMERGING/DEVELOPING COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS CERI TTU 7  Cotton consumption over 2011-21 is projected to grow at 1.9% - about the same as the long-term average. Mill use is projected to grow by about 30.8 million bales over the next ten years.  World cotton production is projected to track the growth of mill use at 2.0%, increasing from 122 million bales in 2011/12 to around 141 million bales in 2021/22. This growth is slightly lower than the long-term average of 2.1% (in the absence of new yield-enhancing technologies).  Minimal fluctuation in cotton acreage is projected in the next ten years with harvested area increasing from 88 million acres in 2011/12 to 91 million acres by 2021/22.  As productivity gains have leveled off for the time being, yield growth is projected to decelerate from 2011/12 to 2021/22, growing by about 1% per year. This annual gain is lower than the long-term average yield gain of 1.43%. WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION & COTTON MILL USE WORLD COTTON HARVESTED AREA & YIELD CERI TTU 8  A steady, albeit slower, growth rate in world cotton trade is projected at 3.4% on average - slightly below the 4.1% growth in the last 10 years, increasing from 36 million bales in 2011/12 to 49 million bales in 2021/22.  China is anticipated to account for the bulk of this increase, with imports projected to increase by 2.3 million bales from 2011/12 to 2021/22.  The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to remain within the 48%-53% range over the next ten years following a large upward correction in 2011/12.  A near balancing of production and consumption and the absence of large adjustments in ending stocks lead to a relatively flat world cotton price (A-index) projected to lie within a narrow range of 91¢-97¢ from 2012/13 to 2021/22. WORLD COTTON TRADE WORLD COTTON PRICE & STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO CERI TTU 9  Following reduced production in 2011/12, cotton output in the U.S. is projected to grow by 1.6%, on average, for the rest of the projection period - below the long-term average of 2.05%.  Cotton exports are projected to remain below 15 million bales per year in the next 10 years, moving from 11 million bales in 2011/12 to 14.9 million bales in 2021/22.  Cotton mill use is projected to average close to the long-run average of 3.7 million bales a year from 2011/12 to 2021/22.  As relative commodity prices adjust, and with average weather conditions over the projection period, cotton acreage is projected to be around 10 million acres.  National average cotton yield was 1.56 bales per acre in 2011/12. It is expected to grow minimally by about 1% per year thereafter until 2021/22. U.S. : PRODUCTION, EXPORTS & MILL USE U.S. : HARVESTED AREA & YIELD CERI TTU 10  World cotton trade is projected to be 36 million bales in 2011/12 and increase steadily to 49 million bales in 2021/22, supported by increased trade in West African countries, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh, among others.  Exports from the United States are estimated to account for about 31% of world cotton trade in 2011/12. This share is projected to be maintained for the next ten years.  Over the next ten years, the share of world cotton production of major cotton producers is projected to stay close to 2011/12 levels. However, India is projected to eclipse China as the largest cotton producer. The U.S. is projected to remain as the third leading producer after China. WORLD COTTON TRADE & U.S. EXPORTS SHARE OF WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION: 2021/22 CERI TTU 11 MAJOR GROWTH MARKETS CERI TTU 12  China’s imports of cotton are projected to increase by 14% in 2011/12 as the government replenishes its official reserves to defend the Government guaranteed floor price for the 2011/12 crop of 19,800 yuan per metric ton ($1.44 per lb). Thereafter, imports are projected to grow by a modest 1.4% per year through 2021/22 (around 19 million bales).  As wages have risen by as much as 20% each year from 2002, the cost of textile production in China has increased and textile expansion has slowed with some mills relocating to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and other Asian countries.  Chinese mill use growth is projected to decelerate, picking up only 8 million bales from 2011/12 to 2021/22, maintaining its share of world mill use at 37%.  With relative cotton prices in China not anticipated to increase significantly, cotton production is projected to be 32 million bales per year, on average, from 2011/12 through 2021/22. CHINA: COTTON IMPORTS CHINA: COTTON PRODUCTION & MILL USE CERI TTU 13  A sustained growth in the cotton textile industry is projected to increase cotton mill use by 45% over the next 10 years. This growth is lower than the 54% increase over the past decade (2001- 10) due to weaker global demand in the next few years.  However, imports of cotton will be limited due to India’s production increases in the next 10 years.  Cotton mill use in Bangladesh is projected to double (to 5.1 million bales) through 2021/22, growing by 3.4% per year, sustaining its position as one of the main textile expanding countries in the world.  With low production, most of the cotton mill use will be sourced from imports. The U.S. is a leading supplier of cotton to Bangladesh but faces competition from India, Australia, and African countries. BANGLADESH: COTTON MILL USE & IMPORTS INDIA: COTTON MILL USE & IMPORTS CERI TTU 14  Following the same pattern as Bangladesh, Vietnam’s cotton imports are projected to increase by 83% (to 2.7 million bales) through 2021/22, growing by 5% per year, to support their textile expansion. This growth is driven by China’s textiles becoming relatively more expensive.  A modernizing and expanding textile industry in Pakistan is projected to boost cotton mill use by around 4.7 million bales in the next 10 years.  The 2011/12 cotton area is projected to increase by 10%, to 7.9 million acres. Although Bt cotton has not been officially adopted in Pakistan, unofficial numbers indicate that Bt cotton is grown on over half of total cotton acreage. PAKISTAN: COTTON MILL USE & PRODUCTION VIETNAM: COTTON MILL USE & IMPORTS CERI TTU 15 DECLINING/STAGNANT MARKETS CERI TTU 16  As textile producers gain more access to the markets within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the latter half of the projection period, mill use is projected to recover as well. Mill use is projected to increase to 6.4 million bales in 2021/22.  Production is projected to increase by only 328,000 bales as productivity gains level off in the second half of the projection period. In recent years, cotton yields have increased by as much as 70% - 75%.  Mill use in Mexico is projected to slowly pick up through 2021/22 with the textile industry absorbing only 522,000 bales over the projection period 2011/12 to 2021/22 (as they continue to face tougher competition from Asia in the next several years). TURKEY: MILL USE, PRODUCTION & IMPORTS MEXICO: COTTON MILL USE & IMPORTS CERI TTU 17  South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan continue to experience steep declines in cotton imports - from a combined 2.3 million bales in 2011/12 down to less than a million bales by 2021/22 amidst a shrinking textile sector in these countries.  The overall decline of the spinner and textile industry in the EU is projected to continue. SOUTH KOREA, TAIWAN & JAPAN: COTTON IMPORTS EU: COTTON PRODUCTION & MILL USE CERI TTU 18 MAJOR COMPETITORS CERI TTU 19  India became the second largest cotton producer in the world in 2006/07 and is expected to surpass China as the leading cotton producer by 2021/22.  India is also projected to be the world’s second largest exporter over the projection period with exports growing by 5% per year through 2021/22.  Harvested cotton area in India is projected to increase, rising by 2.8% (2.1 million acres) from 2011/12 to 2021/22 – below the 29% growth in acreage (6 million acres) from 2001/02 to 2010/11.  Yield gains over 2011/12 to 2021/22 are projected at 1.7% per year - far below the long-term average of 3.6% on account of mature Bt technology (over 86% of national cotton acreage is already devoted to Bt). INDIA: COTTON HARVESTED AREA & YIELD INDIA: COTTON TRADE CERI TTU 20  After a recovery in Brazilian cotton exports in 2011/12 based on demand from China, subsequent growth is projected to be limited to 5.5% per year, considerably weaker than the 20% average in the last 10 years, as global consumption slows.  Production gains will come from both increased acreage and yields. Cotton is projected to remain as a favorable second crop grown in rotation with soybeans or corn. Acreage is projected to average 3.3 million acres from 2011/12 to 2021/22 - above the long-term average from 1991/92 to 2009/10 (2.7 million acres).  Yields are projected to increase from 2.6 to 3 bales per acre through 2021/22.  Mill use is projected to grow steadily but slowly (3.7% per year) as Brazil’s textile industry mimics the growth in global consumption. BRAZIL: COTTON EXPORTS BRAZIL: COTTON PRODUCTION & MILL USE CERI TTU 21  Cotton exports of Uzbekistan will remain steady at around 3 million bales per year over the next ten years; they are projected to account for 6.6% of world cotton trade in 2021/22.  As a group, the WCA region (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) accounts for 6% of world cotton exports.  With a relatively small textile industry, cotton exports are an important component of economic development in the region.  Projections are for a 0.14 million bale increase in both production and in exports per year over the next 10 years. UZBEKISTAN: COTTON EXPORTS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA: COTTON EXPORTS CERI TTU 22  Exports are anticipated to increase from 2011/12 to 2021/22 due to sustained production coupled with high carryover stocks in the first half of the projection period.  Resumption of significant cotton production and exports is contingent on greater water availability.  Due to significant acreage recovery in 2011/12 and steadily increasing yields, Australia is projected to reach higher production and exports, both about 5.6 million bales in 2021/22.  Other Africa Region (Cote d’lvoire, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and others) is ranked next to WCA countries in world cotton exports by 2021/22 (2.0 million bales). AUSTRALIA: COTTON EXPORTS OTHER AFRICA: COTTON MILL USE, PRODUCTION & EXPORTS CERI TTU 23 MAIN POINTS The global outlook for cotton is less optimistic than baselines in previous years as a result of a weaker global economy in the years ahead together with recent developments in the sector:  As productivity/yield gains have leveled off temporarily for the next several years (given technology expectations) and with acreage responding to lower cotton/grains prices (with some acreage shifts in some countries), growth in production is slowing .  With a slower growth in production, a less favorable cotton/man-made fiber price ratio projected in the years ahead (with increased production of synthetic fibers) is likely to limit consumption.  With roughly a balance of consumption and production, both growing slowly throughout the projection period, and no drastic change in ending stocks, cotton prices are projected to be at lower levels than seen in the last 2-3 years.