什么是国债发行余额管理

什么是国债发行余额管理 什么是国债发行余额管理, 我国明年起将实行国债发行余额管理,即把未清偿的国债的存量数值作为发行国债的年度控制指标,考核年度末未清偿的国债的存量数值是否超过规定的控制目标,而不再考核当年实际发行的国债规模。 之前,我国采取逐年审批年度发行额的方式管理国债。中信建投证券研究所巍琦分析认为,年度额度管理限制了国债管理期限选择,财政部倾向于选择发行长期国债(等于可变相增加资金的使用量),少发和不发一年内的短期国债。这种方式会导致两个问题:一是由于缺少短期国债,特别是一年内的短期国债,会使债券品种定价缺少比较基准。二是,多发长期债券使得债券存量每年滚动增加数量较大,例如,2004年国债发行量较2003年增加了895亿元,但2004年末的国债余额却比2003年增加了2470亿元,余额的增加大大超过了年度国债发行量的增加。如果只注意当年国债发行量而忽视国债余额的管理,就有可能增加导致潜在债务风险的增加。 国债余额管理方法将有效增加中短期国债,尤其是一年期国债的发行量。在资金供给不变的情况下,会带来短期国债收益率水平的上升。 可转债套利绝招 可转债的套利是指通过转债与相关联的基础股票之间定价的无效率性进行的无风险获利行为。可转债的套利交易不一定要在可转换期才能进行，只要有卖空机制和存在机会，在不可转换期同样可以锁定收益进行无风险套利。 无风险套利必需的条件是市场要有卖空机制，在牛市或平衡市下，股价上涨时，转债涨幅不如股票，套利机会将会出现，熊市下，转债跌幅不如股票，套利机会很少，甚至没有套利机会。 在市场没有卖空机制的情形下套利是有风险的，有风险的套利是指投资者借助可转债的一些性质，判断可转债是否处于低估状态或风险收益极度不对称，从而决定是买入还是卖出，相当于低吸高抛的交易行为，有风险的套利对投资者的套利技巧和市场判断要求较高，稍有不慎，套利就可能变成被套。 在没有卖空机制的单边市场，可转债的套利主要有两种方法:一种方法是在转换期内，如果转债市场价格小于转换价格，则买入转债进行套利;另一种方法是波幅套利，即当转债市场价格隐含的波动率小于套利者估计的波动率时，则买入转债进行波幅套利。短期内如果股价上涨且隐含波动率上升，转债获利较多;如果股价平稳、隐含波动率上升，转债获利;如果股价下跌、隐含波动率上升，转债可能出现亏损、获利或不亏不盈三种情况。如果股价下跌，即使转债的隐含波动率上升，同样可能亏损，套利者并没有实现波动率的收益化。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 波幅套利的必要条件是市场是有效的，而且转债的定价模型与转债的市场价格趋于一致，市场的有效性和定价模型的精确性必须得到市场的检验，否则波幅套利是不成功的。 在目前国内单边市场的环境下，为了尽量规避未来股价的不确定性的风险，我们定义套利在转债的转股期内进行，锁定期内买入转债我们认为属于投资行为，而不属于套利行为。 我们的套利策略为:套利者必须首先有一定数量的股票和现金，当市场出现套利机会时，套利者卖出股票，同时买入相应数量的转债并申请转股，第二个交易日套利者的持仓结构变为:股票数量不变，现金增加。现金增加部分即为套利收益，但套利者必须承担持股风险，这是单边市场套利所不可避免的。 转换比率=100/转换价转换价格=转换比率*当前标的股价转换溢价率=(转换价格-转债价格)/转债价格每股转换溢价率小于0我们称为套利空间，如果套利空间为负，则不存在套利机会;反之，若套利空间为正，且大于所有的交易成本费用率，则存在套利机会。操作时卖出股票和买入转债同时进行，所以组合中股票市值和现金资产的比例大致应为1:1。 什么是可转换公司债券的嵌入期权价值, 可转换公司债券的嵌入期权主要包括转换权、赎回权、回售权和转换价格修正等。 转换权是指投资者在转换期内具有将可转债转换成公司流通股票的权利，实质是投资者的股票看涨期权;赎回权是发行人的股票看涨期权，当股价高于转股价一定幅度并持续一段时间以后，发行人有赎回全部或部分未转股的可转债的权利;回售权是持有人的一项股票看跌期权，当股价低于转股价一定幅度并持续一段时间后，持有人有权将全部或部分未转股的可转债回售给发行人;转股价格修正是指当股价低于转股价一定幅度并持续一段时间后，发行人有向下修正转股价格的权利，转股价格修正是对投资者和发行人都有利的行为。各种期权相互交织，错综复杂地影响着可转债的价值，其中对可转债价值起决定作用的是转换权价值。 可转换债券的转换权在嵌入了赎回和回售条款后，相当于限制了投资者可能获得的最大收益和遭受的最大损失，转换期权的价值具有了边界性质。带有赎回和回售性质的转换权价值，股价低于回售价格时，转换权价值为回售权的价值;股价高于赎回价格时，为了避免公司可能赎回带来的损失，投资者理性的做法是转股，赎回条款直接制约了转换权的价值。 无特殊条款的可转换公司债券价值=纯债券价值+转换期权价值其中，转换期权的行使价格为转换价格。 附加赎回条款的可转换公司债券价值=纯债券价值+转换期权价值-赎回期权价值其中，债券赎回期权的行使价格为可转换公司债券的赎回价格。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 附加赎回和回售条款的可转换公司债券价值=纯债券价值+转换期权价值-赎回期权价值+回售期权价值其中，债券回售期权价值的行使价格为回售价格。 当股价低于回售价格时，投资者行使回售权，转股权价值就是回售权价值;当股价高于赎回价格时，投资者的理性选择是转股，以避免公司行使赎回权可能产生的损失。 什么是利率互换, 利率互换是指交易双方约定在未来的一定期限内，根据约定数量的人民币本金交换现金流的行为，其中一方的现金流根据浮动利率计算，另一方的现金流根据固定利率计算。在央行的《通知》颁布后，国家开发银行与中国光大银行完成了首笔人民币利率互换交易。该笔的名义本金为人民币50亿元,期限10年,由光大银行支付固定利率、开发银行支付浮动利率。 什么是债券借贷, 所谓债券借贷，是指持有债券的法人机构(出借者)将其所持有的债券暂时借给因投机或投资策略而需要债券的其他法人机构。在债券借贷期间，出借者仍然拥有获取债券的利息等权利，并且向借贷者收取一定的出借费用。 技术分析:同一细节的不同解释 如果我们对于经典的技术分析理论过于执著，那么就很容易会养成一种相对固化的思维模式，在分析和研判股价走势的时候一般都会套用一些固定化的模式。然而研判股价走势并没 有一种万能的公式，所以我们希望通过分析非自然交易中的细节来研判股价走势。 这是一种动态的思维分析方法，并没有固定的模式和结论，因此当某一个非自然交易细节出现的时候其隐含着的结论并不是一定的，也就是说现象与结果不是一一对应的。比如出现了一个非自然交易细节A，也许我们以前分析过这个细节，当时得出的结论是B，但当我们再一次发现这个细节的时候千万不要以为这次结论也一定是B。当然B仍然是有可能的， 但并不能保证，或许会有结论C甚至结论D。我们能做的就是重新开始。 放弃任何条条框框，这是我们所提倡的动态思维分析方法的基础，下例足以说明。 某股挂单以两位数为主，偶有三位数，日成交在百万股左右，某时出现了一张1000 多手的四位数买单挂在买?的位置，这引起了我们的注意。 从表面上来说这张大买单是要成交的，然而实际上很难成交，因为成交量很小，更何况这张挂单还挂在买?的价位而不是买?的价位。相信挂这张单子的交易者也是知道这一点To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 的，换句话说交易者在挂出这张买单的时候就已经知道几乎是不会成交的，或者我们应该这 样理解:这张挂单的目的并不是为了成交。 并不想成交的挂单挂出来有什么作用呢,回忆一下我们下单的过程，一般都会先看一下挂单的情况再决定是否和如何下单，换句话说，这张大单尽管本身很难成交但它有一个很大的作用就是让市场看到，或者说这张挂单是挂出来给市场看的，它的目的是影响市场的交易。 影响市场交易并不一定要进行实质性的买卖交易，挂单则是一种既能规避风险又能降低成本的有效方法。由于买?数量相对较大，因此会对市场买卖双方的心理产生影响，买家的心态上会着急一些，而卖家则会放松一些，买卖双方的博弈预期是股价上涨，这就是大买单 对市场交易的影响。 把不想成交的单子挂出来，这就是一种非自然的交易行为，这一细节也就是非自然交易 细节。 这一细节告诉我们什么,以前我们碰到过一次，好像是主力准备推升股价，这次呢,除了有可能是主力准备推升股价外还会有多种可能。也许只是一张默契单，也许是主力诱多，也许是主力护盘等等。其实这一细节背后的可能性会有很多，绝对不能主观认定一个可能性。我们要做的就是进一步搜罗更多的信息，这样我们就能够不断缩小分析的范围，最后完成细 节分析。 做个“战胜机构”的小散 散户能不能战胜机构, 从历史的角度看，绝大多数散户是没有取胜的机会的，因为无论是信息、还是资金和研 究能力，散户都无法和机构相比。 但这并不等于说散户就没有战胜机构的可能，因为散户的资金量小，进出股市灵活，只要掌握了合适的投资方法，一样可以创造股市奇迹。今天，我们就走近几位民间投资高手， 看看这些"散打冠军"的传奇故事。 股海无涯，牛熊更替，浪沙淘尽，英雄辈出。 自千点以来爆发的超级大牛市，民间突然涌现出了众多的炒股高手。转瞬之间，他们的财富就翻了数倍。这些高手通常只是一"小散"，相对于理财专家的机构投资者秉承某一投资理念、运用特定的数学模型进行价值投资，他们的投资理念五花八门，投资手法上天入地，但投资效益往往高得出人意料，有的甚至超越了"行家里手"的机构投资者。然而，相对于资 金庞大的机构投资者，这些民间高手们只能称得上是"散打冠军"。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 散户能否战胜机构 多年来，基金持仓股总是强于大势，这一点在千点以来尤为明显。在此轮激动人心却又让人心惊肉跳的超级大牛市中，机构占尽了主导地位。一轮以基金为主导的机构牛市如火如 荼地开展。 2006年下半年的1500点至年底的2800点，基金重仓持有的大盘蓝筹股集体起舞，许多散户是赚了股指不赚钱，只能望"涨"兴叹。直到2007年初，市场板块格局才有所转变，个人投资者替代机构占据了市场主体，四面八方涌来的民间资本突然爆发了垃圾股、低股价的"全民运动"，非"基金持股"来了一次"绝地大反击"，股价短期上涨惊人，市场投机气氛浓烈。然而，"5.30"之后，大盘蓝筹股卷土重来，在短短3个月时间里，许多蓝筹股涨幅惊人，甚至达到数倍，如山东黄金(55.00,-0.48,-0.86%)、中金黄金(39.72,-0.39,-0.97%)上涨了3.5倍左右，招商银行(13.42,-0.06,-0.45%)、万科A、兴业银行(24.78,-0.10,-0.40%)、中国国航(13.11,-0.02,-0.15%)等一大批的权重股上涨了1倍多，就连"巨无霸"——工商银 行(4.36,-0.03,-0.68%)也在七八月间连续拉出了大阳线，上涨幅度达50%。 在大盘蓝筹股的"群舞"带动下，基金净值节节攀升，不断创出新高。而与此同时，散户却在"5.30"之后元气大伤，幸亏股市回暖，不断冲击新高，才慢慢地恢复了"5.30"前的市 值。相形之下，机构确实要比散户胜出几筹。 在如此的机构牛市中，从1500多只股票挑选出能够超越大盘的好股票确实存在难度，事实上，在震荡剧烈的牛市中，即使买到了好股票，也很难长期持有。于是，越来越多的中小投资者加入基金队伍，让理财专家为自己打理钱财，曹燕飞就是其中之一。然而，这是否 意味着散户在股市中就一律得对机构"缴械投降"了, 凭心而论，在股市中，散户与机构不是一个数量级的，并且相差的级数非常之大。除了资金、投研力量的优势外，在信息披露仍存在诸多缺陷的中国股市上，散户与机构的信息不对称现象仍非常严重。作为中小投资者，自然期望在股市上能与机构"公平"竞争，但真正"公平"却很难做到，优势总是倾向于机构大户。财大气粗的保险机构，有实力的券商，以及众多的基金，组成了股市的集团军、方面军、野战军。他们与管理层、上市公司、新闻媒体以及种种社会关系上，都占有散户们无法望其项背的优势。用一个形象的比喻是，如果股市的信息渠道是一个食物链的话，散户只能是最末端的基本食物源。因为各种信息已被机构们大户们优先享用了，股市中之所以有些股价被提前炒高，或突然"杀跌"，与"利好"或"利空" 已被机构大户们提前炒作和消化不无关联。 如此而言，如今的散户似乎只剩"华山一条道"——弃股从基了。然而，事实并非如此， 实际上，散户也有自己的优势，而且有些方面是机构大户们所望尘莫及的。 比如，投资频率与时限优势。散户持有股票的时间根据大势、个股涨跌的幅度、资金的用途等决定，灵活性较强，可随时见好就收，也可随意拉长时限，长短皆宜。而机构却要承To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 受不断赎回或申购的压力，不得不减仓或建仓以被迫应对。再比如，流动性优势。机构资金宠大，进出皆不易，尤其在当下基金动辄上百亿元份额，只能选择一些流通盘大的股票进行投资。而作为中小投资者，自由度相对要高许多，只要认为股票具有投资价值，不论盘小盘 大，立马可以进入，而一旦认为持有该股已没有太大必要时，又立马可以套现。 可见，散户战胜机构也是有先天优势，贺楠、杨东、穆兴国等也身体力行地证明了这一 点。选择合适自己的投资方法 "一千个观众就有一千个哈姆雷特。"一千个散户就有一千种投资法。 对于一个成功的投资者来说，要从适合自己的个性、风险偏好、家庭结构、收入、职业、年龄等出发去选择投资方法。曹燕飞稳扎稳打，买入"原始股"的基金后，便长线持有，最终获得了500%的超额利润;贺楠信奉价值投资，以巴菲特为师，选择优秀公司，不论牛熊，长期持有，获取超额回报;杨东风险承受能力强，他遵循的是另类价值投资，擅长从"垃圾"里挖掘"黄金"，坚信在周而复始的股市里，重组是永恒的主题，一些绩差股通过重组会成为绩优蓝筹;"短线之王"穆兴国喜欢快进快出，爱打听小道消息，但又不完全听信于小道消息， 而是要在做足基本面持术面的功课之后，才决定"投票"。 "闻道有先后，术业有专攻。"股市无绝对的专家，投资股市也不必"十八般武艺"样样精 通，只要有"一般武艺"，耐心做深、做精、做透，一定会结出好果实。 此外，股市中常胜将军的一个经验之道是:善于总结自己的错误。算起来，除去此轮超级大牛市"解放了全人类"，以往散户在股市中输多赢少，却是个不争的事实。而为什么会产生这个现象，原因就在于不会自我总结，总是周而复始地犯着同样的错误。因此，投资者要成为一个明白人，既知道成功是如何取得的，更清楚失败是如何造成的，最好把自己过去并不成功的操作下来并附上失败原因贴在墙上时刻警醒自己，做到这一点是需要勇气的。 向自已的经验学习，尤其是失败的经历，善于总结、分类，并得出相应的结论。这是投 资迈向成功的关键一步。 做个快乐的投资者 投资股市为了什么，赚钱;赚钱又为了什么，增值保值，保证或提高今后的生活质量。 既然这样，那么你一定要做个快乐投资者，否则即使赚了大钱，也是适得其反。 然而，在现实中，许多的投资者却是随股价的涨落而喜悲。股票一涨，便欣喜若狂，颜形于色;股票一跌，就茶饭不思，寝食难安。生活完全由股票所操控，成为股票的奴隶。 而另一个极端的投资态度是盲目乐观。乐观虽是一种积极的心态，但完全被乐观心态左右，那就是盲目乐观。盲目乐观不等于快乐投资，甚至是背道而驰。对于股市投资者来说，To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 盲目可能会遭遇灭顶之灾。因为投资者在决策过程中，盲目乐观容易导致高估自己的知识和技能、高估市场的表现，低估或忽视风险的存在，夸大了自己掌控局面的能力。毕竟股市是一个高风险的场所，投资者要时刻克制自己的乐观情绪，不能为暂时的成绩而忘乎所以。 事实上，要做好投资，必须有一个举重若轻的心态，要像贺楠一样做到"手中有股，心中无股"，或者说是战略上藐视、战术上重视，即战略上敢于投资、敢于博弈，但战术上重视投资的缘由、研究细致入微、操作步步为营、即时纠正错误。以平静的心态对待股市涨跌， 去笑看云卷云舒。 不以涨喜，不以跌悲。这才是快乐投资的最高境界。 “投机”也有成功心得, 投机市场是古老和新鲜的，存在市场交易就存在投机行为，近代的金融市场所形成的标准合约和股票，极大提升了投机的发展和壮大，促进了市场的流动性。市场的职能就是促进交易 向最大化发展。 要做一个专业的投机客，首先必须明白什么是投机，投机是指交易者根据自己的判断，愿意承担一定的市场风险，所做出的买卖决定。其要点在于投机经验，根据市场形势进行判断，同时演化为市场的买卖力量。如果没有经验，做不出正确的判断，则不可能生存，正确 的判断没有转化为市场的买卖力量，也只会形成纸上谈兵。 投机者的第一要素就是勇气，许多人都曾发现过好股票，但无法把判断变成交易，受到贪心和恐惧的困扰，究其原因，就是勇气不足。投机者的勇气就在于在合适的时机中将自己的判断形成买卖力量，错误，就会付出代价，正确，自然会得到回报，仅仅只是一个交易而已。这样才能克服患得患失。因为，如果正确的判断没有较充分的转化为买卖力量，那么， 100%的正确也于事无补。投机者的勇气就在于此。 要明白一个投机客的内涵，必须清楚赌博、投机和投资的区别，在这三点上的混淆浪费了大多数市场交易者的金钱和生命。市场是有其内在的发展规律的，经验会使交易者或多或少的明白市场发展的内在特性。根据自己的经验，形成交易系统，并不断完善，坚持执行下去，是每一个成功的投机客的必经之路和不可缺少的功课。而赌博是根据片面的经验，小道消息等而做出的买卖决定，支撑其决定的是其希望和期望，这常常发生在遭遇亏损后的孤注一掷，这种不根据市场形势所做出的买卖行为，常会导致交易者不能正确面对亏损，最终泥 足深陷，无法长久在市场生存下去。 投资是针对所买卖的标的物价值而做出的决定，它要求是所购买的标的物有所值或物超所值，因此，在一段时间内，价格是对投资行为起决定作用的，价格相对价值当然是越低越好，这点也成就了巴菲特的股王生涯。因此，寻找有一定成长性，经营健全，体质健康的公To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 司进行长期的股权投资，其回报是非常惊人的。这也是由事物的发展规律所决定的，一家经营健全的公司，具有一定的成长性，那么它的发展必然是螺旋上升的形态，价值会不断积累和提高，这就是巴菲特的投资哲学，可惜中国股市的A股市场现在还没有物有所值的公司， 除非是买入国家股和法人股作长期股权投资，回报将十分可观。 投机行为是完全不同于赌博和投资的，只有明白了这点，才能做一个合格的投机客。投机是沿着价格运动阻力最小的方向而做的顺势操作，它所做出的买卖行为主要依据投机者的投机经验和操作系统，需要冷静分析，清楚认识到事物运行的发展规律，静如处子，动如狡兔，像狼一样的捕捉时机。投机者最重要的是市场定位，投机的真谛是知道和发现时机，投 机的最大悲哀是与时机交臂而过还懵然不知。 时机又分大的时机和小的时机，大的时机是指整体大势发生转变的时刻，它是指一个时间段，小的时机是个股体现出的上涨和下跌的时刻，有最佳时点。其实，投机这个词就明确指出了关键所在，投机=交投时机。善于发现事物的转折处和快速发展的时刻，投机就等于成功了一半。“其盗机也，天下莫能见。君子得之固躬，小人得之轻命。”“观天之道，执天之行，尽矣～”古人早就明白了事物的发展规律是永恒不变的，最重要的是发现时机，利用 时机来进行“投机”。“君子见机而做”，就是这个道理。 投机的大原则是发现并牢牢把握住时机，具体到操作行为上有一定的原则，这是我经过 多年的实战得出的投机心得: 1、在牛市中做多，在熊市中做空，看大势赚大钱。 2、不要去捕捉股价的最低点和最高点，因为我们是投机。 3、投机是掌握时机去获得基本肯定的利润。 4、不要去和大盘理论，依据判断(在发现时机时)做出买卖决定，错误就付出代价，正 确就得到回报。 5、不要为上涨或下跌找寻理由，根据买卖力量和价格行为来决定操作行为。 6、投机资金分成三份，先投入一份，正确后，指价格行为呈现自己所判断的情形，投 入第二支部队，错误就择机出场。 7、投机不要夹杂希望，贪心，恐惧等个人情绪和意愿。经常习禅，练习静心的功夫。 8、不要赌博，不要投资，只要投机。 9、不打听消息，不听信传闻，市场会走出健康的形态，如果正确的话。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 10、最重要的，股价上涨，必然伴随活跃，成交量放大，热门股，资金进出顺畅，像 植物生长欣欣向荣的景象。 11、买入股价突破高位，成交量换手率大增的股票，这是个股的买入时机，后市往往 会有较大的升幅，但对涨幅较大的不宜追涨。 12、每天反省，做功课，涵养个性，注重修养，兴趣广泛，知识丰富，心胸坦荡，加 强锻炼，保持健康的体魄。 如何寻找“放天量”的黑马股票 一只股票从前期重要阻力位走上去，肯定会放出一定的成交量，有时候，甚至会出现天量。 什么叫天量,一般讲就是流通盘的30%以上。 天量有天价，这话一点也不假，这个规律总结的就是，必须股价不是疯狂上涨的中后期，而是股票价格相对运行了6个月以上的震荡整理区域，这个区域由于有新多主力介入，盘口力量开始被改变，主动性买盘增加，但是，另外一个方面的卖压也开始出现，说明资金分 歧意见大，但是，随后的几天震荡整理中，多头渐渐占据上峰。 这个阶段投资者的心态最为摇摆，一是对基本面的不确定，二是对大势后期走向的不明 朗。直观地说就是将信将疑。 比如比亚迪股份在巴菲特宣布增持后，市场对这个股票普遍持怀疑态度，因此，在股票短线上涨20%左右，就出现强大的卖盘，可能随后几天的时间里，股票价格会继续下跌，甚至跌会起飞前的位置，可是，人们会发现，市场中的买盘仍然活跃。因此，我们可以看到 盘口放出天量。 出现天量的原因有两点，第一，资金分歧大，第二，新老庄家换庄。 连续一周时间以上的天量，股票突然启动并迅速上涨，通常说明天价即将来临。 也许这个时候，有一些人会喊出:看，这是一只妖股出来了。 其实，它不是妖股，而是新黑马。 看了复盘数据，你能找出这样的股票吗, 股神罗杰斯的投资三法则 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 吉姆?罗杰斯，一个600美元入场,1400万美元退出的投资家;一个被股神巴菲特誉为对市场变化掌握无人能及的趋势家;一个两度环游世界，一次骑车、一次开车的梦想家。 面对风云莫测的市场，这投资界的重量级人物有什么独门妙计吗,我们可以从中学到什 么, 1.独立思考法则 “我总是发现自己埋头苦读很有用处。如果我只按照自己所理解的行事，既容易又有利可图，而不是要别人告诉我该怎么做。”罗杰斯的投资理念就是寻找一些不被关注的股票:“当年我来中国的时候，所有的人都劝说我千万不要买B股，所以我当时就毫不犹豫地买了，事实证明并没有错。”每个人应该有自己的投资方式和理念，不管是投资股票还是货币或其他，当然独立思考的前提是要建立在对市场客观、深入研究的基础上。大部分人会随大流，而事实上很少有人能靠随大流发财。“我可以保证，市场永远是错的。必须独立思考，必须 抛开羊群心理。”罗杰斯如是说。 泰达荷银建议，无论市场如何波动，投资者都应根据自身的风险承受能力、财务状况,选择适合的基金,而不是在“赚钱效应”的影响下盲目地追从并不适合自己的投资品种。 2.绝不赔钱法则 “除非你真的了解自己在干什么，否则什么也别做。”“所以，我的忠告就是绝不赔钱， 做自己熟悉的事，等到发现大好机会才投钱下去。” 根据这点法则，我们可以得出这样的结论:要充分地了解自己的财富管理人，比如所选择的基金公司是否值得托付，基金经理是否经历过熊市及牛市全面的洗礼，基金产品长期的 历史业绩是否优良，这些都是做好投资的重要前提。 3.静若处子法则 “投资的法则之一是袖手旁观，除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出，找些事情做。他们可能会说„看看我有多高明，又赚了3倍?。然后他们又去做别的事情，就是没有办法坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”罗杰斯对“试试手气”的说法很不以为然，“这实 际上是导致投资者投资失败的重要因素。” 面对目前的市场,泰达荷银建议投资者应该心平气和且理性地采用定期定额的方式坚持投资,纪律性地买入，这样既可以分摊长期投资的成本又能降低短期一次性买入被套牢的风 险。 “个股异动”与“主力参与”的联系 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 很多投资朋友会陷入一个误区，认为几乎所有的个股都是有主力在运作的，一旦股价上涨就 是主力拉升，股价下跌就是主力出货，实际上可能根本就没有主力参与。 主力应该有满足两个基本特点，一个是资金的保证，这是毋庸置疑的市场共识，还有一个市场上并未形成一致的认识，就是锁仓。锁仓的关键在于时间，如果仅仅持有几天甚至一两天那么就不能称之为锁仓。主力锁仓的量起码要占到流通盘的二成以上，而且时间起码在一个月以上。只有这样运作才有可能获取较为有把握的收益，而对于投资者来说关注主力参 与的个股也才更有实用意义。 在研判个股的时候我们经常用的工具是K线图，特别会关心一些以往有过放量上涨过程的K线图，而且往往一看到放量上涨就断定其中有主力在运作。当然，这种可能性是存在的，但可能性并不等于必然性，有很多其他因素会导致个股的放量上涨，但其中不一定是 主力的刻意运作。 大致上我们可以列出以下三种同样会导致股价放量上涨的可能性。 可能性?:大盘。 我们在进行细节分析的时候经常会提到排除大盘波动，实际上如果大盘大幅度波动那么绝大多数个股也会大幅度同向波动，毕竟大盘指数是基于所有个股股价计算出来的，因此完全脱离大盘而单独分析个股的走势是不着边际的。很多投资者已经习惯用相对强度指标(RR I指标)进行研判，这一指标对于研判股价相对于大盘强度非常实际而且有效。 当然，即使同期大盘放量上涨，但只要RRI指标有异，个股中还是会有主力身影的。 严格来说RRI指标还只能反应股价走势的相对强弱，对于量能是否异常仍无能为力， 研判量能是否异常可利用“单位成交量”指标。 由于大盘的波动可以准确地用上证指数等市场指数来代替，因此研判个股与大盘的关系 相对容易一些。 可能性?:热点。 当一个市场热点出现以后相关的个股都会受到影响，此时股价的放量上涨未必就是主力运作的结果。这里提到的市场热点包括题材热点、行业热点等等能够影响到个股股价的因素。比如市场热炒高铁概念，一些与此有关的个股特别是小盘概念股就会出现放量上涨的态势，但其中并不一定真有主力在参与。如果个股是当时热点的领涨股，那么主力参与的可能性就 很大了。 通过RRI指数可以分析个股股价与行业指数的关系，以便排除股价波动的行业热点因 素。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 可能性?:个股本身的消息。 当我们回过头去看K线图的时候往往会忽略当时的一些消息面，而股价的放量上涨很 可能是由于一些公司本身的公开消息所引起的。 研判的方法比较简单，可以通过网络浏览一下当时公司的消息面。 个股基本面方面的变化有一个逐渐演变的过程，所以消息提前泄露是完全合理的，因此这类个股被主力相中的可能性也是比较大的，一旦消息明朗则存在主力退出的可能。 以上仅讨论了放量上涨的情况，其实放量下跌也是要注意的，道理一样，并不一定是主 力出逃才造成股价放量下跌。 债市难成吸收热钱的“池子” 央行昨日于公开市场招标发行30亿元3个月央票和10亿元3年期央票，发行量创下了近 期低点。 美联储宣布推出第二轮量化宽松货币政策(QE2)后，央行行长周小川随即表示:“短期的投机性资金要进来的话，希望把它放在一个池子里，而不让它泛滥到整个中国的实体经济中去。”随即，市场纷纷对周小川行长所说的“池子”猜测不已。有经济学家建议，可以以债券市场应对热钱流入，使之成为“池子”的一部分。不少债券投资者为此雀跃不已，认为一旦债券市场成为资金“池子”，债券市场将出现大量的流动性，因此将产生大量的债券买盘。 2002年央行公开市场创造央行票据的初衷，便是为了对冲外汇占款，之后，2004年后央行公开市场逐渐成了央行数量型回收流动性的常规手段，央行票据成了吸收热钱的主要 “池子”。 当前正是央行回收流动性的时候，而央行票据发行越来越少，说明央票这一公开市场回 收流动性的主要工具正在逐渐淡出，相反，银行存款准备金率被频繁使用。 央行放弃央票或债券做为资金“池子”的原因是多方面的。首先，央票需要央行付出利息成本，庞大的利息成本对央行也造成相当大的负担，同时，大量的债券发行，势必使债券市 场利率大幅上升，这对实体经济和金融体系也将造成影响。 其次，我国金融市场和金融体系尚不完善，债券市场发展滞后，容量相对较小，参与群体相对单一，针对庞大的热钱游资，是否能够容纳，当热钱退出时，大量的债券抛盘如何消 化，对货币市场将造成什么样的影响，尚难以估量。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 第三，我国目前债券市场收益率整体偏低，对热钱的吸引力不大，笔者曾问过海外大型固定收益投资基金，如果现在开放人民币债券市场，他们是否会大量配置，回答是会参与，但不会太多，原因很简单，其他新兴经济体债券收益率普遍较高，有的甚至高达10%以上，虽然这些国家纷纷出台一些外资购买本国债券的税收政策，但游资有很多避税方法，即使除掉税收，收益仍很可观，而且这些国家的汇率也在升值。虽然人民币升值预期长期存在，但 综合来看，在国内债券市场要成为吸收热钱的池子，条件尚不成熟。 中资银行VS外资银行 买哪种理财产品更合适, 近期，东亚银行、汇丰银行、法兴银行、华一银行等纷纷推出结构性产品，专家指出，在经历金融危机后的心有余悸之后，投资者对结构性产品的态度已渐趋平静，今年外资银行理财产品发行较多。而中资银行则以产品线齐全吸引投资者。那么，中外资银行的理财有哪些区 别,银行理财又该选择哪个阵营呢, 中资稳健、外资风险高, 据了解，今年以来截至目前，中外资银行已经发行6776款理财产品，其中5%是外资 银行的结构性产品。 中国社科院金融研究所金融产品中心王增武博士认为，中外资银行各自具有比较优势。相比之下，外资银行设计的产品以高风险、高收益为主;中资银行设计的产品除了占据少数比例的证券投资基金类产品以外，以风险较低、收益稳健为主，这是由于外资银行与境外机构关系密切，可以做一些对手交易，中资银行在发行固定收益类产品上也有先天优势。 展恒理财亚运村理财中心的中心经理石端义表示，中外资银行理财差别非常大。中资银行产品类型多，并以人民币理财为主，外资银行则以外币理财为主，今年的人民币理财产品不超过总量的40%，以往则是基本不发行的。原因在于外资银行的国内业务比较单一，不 吸收人民币储蓄，有一些也没有吸收人民币存款的牌照。 根据金融产品中心的研究，近几周由于人民币升值压力有增无减，致使结构类理财产品少有外币类计价，表现出各个商业银行的理财产品发行部门依然谨慎看待人民币升值对发行外币类产品所带来的汇率风险，导致外币类产品绝迹。11月第一周，银行结构类理财产品的投资币种单一，所有结构类产品均以人民币计价。研究还显示，参与股权类理财市场的多 为外资银行，中资银行的积极性不高。 结构性产品也“保本”了, 石端义指出，外资行发行的产品之中，固定收益产品比较少，结构化产品超过80%。其中一类是纯挂钩型品种，挂钩国外股票指数、大宗商品等;另外一类是银行系QD的形式。2008年以前，花旗、汇丰等外资银行发行此类产品很多，经过去年的沉寂之后，今年To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 又有一些此类产品发行。11月首周出现了2款股票类产品和1款汇率类产品，主要投资于香港及纽约上市交易基金和香港蓝筹股。如追踪恒生指数表现的盈富基金、追踪MSCI新加坡指数表现的iShares MSCI新加坡指数基金、追踪MSCI台湾指数表现的iShares MSCI台湾指数基金，以及追踪MSCI南韩指数表现的iShares MSCI南韩指数基金。 金融危机之后，外资银行的结构性产品饱受诟病。今年，重出江湖的外资结构性理财产品也作出了相应调整。王增武告诉记者，目前来看，绝大多数外资银行结构性产品设置了止损线，以前QD产品亏多少损多少，现在则增加了保本，亏损不会太大，本金损失额度最高不超过10%。11月各商业银行所发32款产品中有97%的产品为保本或保息类。 不过，保本其实是有条件的。石端义指出，很多外资行理财产品的“保本”指的是到期保 本，假如中间赎回则是“不享受”保本的。 外资行产品收益高, 金融产品中心的研究显示，从近期到期的产品来看，大体概况是高收益和低收益产品集 中在外资银行，中间收益的产品一般集中在中资银行。 中资银行的理财产品包括信贷类产品，一般收益约在3%~4%;货币市场类产品，主要是投资于债券市场、货币市场工具，收益较低，风险也小;中资银行也推出一些结构性产品，如中行、中信推出挂钩黄金的产品等，但总体数量较少，约占中资行发行产品总数量的 不到5%。 不过，外资产品虽然可以约定一定的收益比例，但实现最高收益的几率并不高，这 也是高收益产品与低收益产品都集中在外资银行的一个原因。 买中资，还是买外资, 那么，买哪种理财产品更合适呢,王增武认为，具体购买哪种类型、哪一款产品，还要看投资者自身的情况。例如，追求稳健的投资者可以选择上海银行“保”系列这样的产品，追求高收益的投资者就可以选择外资或中资行的结构性产品，风险适中的则可以选择中资银行的保本浮动或部分保本浮动的产品。重要的是，了解清楚产品到底是什么。要切记理财是个性化的，根据风险收益点的不同，选择结构性产品或普通理财产品，要具体分析产品的投资 方向、投资期限、流动性设置等，看是否与预期相符，再决定是否购买。 石端义也认为，理财要根据投资者自己的情况作出选择。不懂的产品不考虑，看得懂、比较有把握的才可以买。尤其对结构性产品要有细致了解。他表示，结构性产品不太适合一般投资者。比如挂钩黄金的结构性产品，当黄金上涨的时候不一定有收益，因为产品设有很多限制条件，到达条件才能获得收益，因此，专业性强、风险承受能力较高的投资者可以选 择这种产品。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 石端义建议，投资者进行人民币理财可选择中资银行。中资行产品线比较全，并以低风险产品为主，如果投资者想要得到较高一些的收益，可以选择信贷类产品，尽管此类产品在银信合作新政之后有所减少。另外可以选择外资银行的优惠利率存款。目前国家对一些主流货币在存款额上有一些限制，但有些币种是没有限制的。有一些受限的币种也可以选择期限为六个月、三个月的产品。这些存款利率外资比中资银行的高一些，比如澳币、欧元、新西 兰币(纽元)等，都是不错的选择。 对于人民币升值的压力，专家认为，汇率的变动并不完全是风险。“我们认为人民币升值在长期来说还是大趋势。但是汇率有风险，也有机会。”石端义指出。人民币对美元升值的同时，澳币、加币等币种也在对美元升值，并且升值幅度更大一些，这也带来了投资理财 上的机会。 如何评估上市公司壳资源价值 一般来讲，壳资源是指上市公司的上市交易资格，拥有壳资源的上市公司被称为壳公司。所谓买壳上市，就是一家优势企业通过收购债权、控股、直接投资、购买股票等收购手段以取得被收购方(上市公司)的所有权、经营权及上市地位。目前，我国进行买壳、借壳一般都通过二级市场购并或者通过国家股、法人股的协议转让进行的。 壳资源形成于“总量控制、限报家数”的安排下，可以说是政府干预证券市场的结果，并在市场经济建立的制度转轨过程中长期存在。“壳”作为一种“长期”的资源与其他资源一样，也具有稀缺性和收益性。我国政府与市场的制度基础决定上市资格的供需矛盾，壳资源已成为非上市公司的“必争之地”。而且在我国企业进入证券市场存在准入制度的情况下，上市公司的上市资格成为政府授予的垄断权力，拥有这种资格，可获得垄断收益。主要表现在:利用证券市场的优势筹集所需资金以及广告效益、资本放大效益等。 同时，壳资源还具有其自身的特殊性，即虚拟性和再生性。虚拟性是指壳公司因其拥有上市资格而产生的价值，并不与现实生产中的生产要素相对应，而与特定的制度安排有关。其再生性在于一般的资源经过使用，通常是被消耗掉或发生价值转移而壳资源在利用过程中却会产生巨大的远远超过其自身价值的价值增值。 壳资源价值的相关因素 (一)壳资源与壳公司净资产的关系。 虽然收购方并不看重壳公司的净资产，而是看重其上市资格，但壳公司的净资产对收购方买壳上市的效用也具有很大的影响。毕竟壳资源是依附于壳公司而存在的，壳公司净资产的优良程度决定着买壳重组后的收购方所获得的收益。同时在国有股转让方面，根据1997年7月1日原国家国有资产管理局和体改委联合发布的《股份有限公司国有股股东行使股To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 权行为意见》的第十七条规定“转让的价格必须依据公司的每股净资产、净资产收益率、实际投资价值(投资回报率)、近期市场资格以及合理的市盈率等因素来确定，但不得低于每股净资产。”可见，每股净资产是国有股权转让的政策底价，而法人股转让则无此限制。由此可知，公司的净资产是壳资源价值的基础。 (二)壳资源价值与壳公司商誊的关系。 商誉通常是指企业在一定条件下，能获取高于正常投资报酬率所形成的价值，这是由于企业所处地理位置的优势，或由于经营效率高、管理基础好、生产历史悠久、人员素质高等多种原因，与同行企业相比较，可获得超额利润。商誉是一种不可确指的无形资产，壳资源本身具有商誉的基本特点。从更广泛的意义上讲，壳资源属于商誉的一种。两者都不能离开企业而单独存在，具有虚拟性和依附性。它们都是一种稀缺性资源，能给企业带来超额收益，而且都是多种因素作用的结果。狭义的企业商誉可以增加壳资源的价值，同时壳资源交易方面也与无形资产的投资及回收投资的操作异曲同工。 (三)壳资源价值与上市利得的关系。 既然壳资源具有价值，且收购方主要注重壳公司上市的资格，那么收购方买壳之后，自然会有上市利得的存在，这也是壳所给收购方带来的效用或价值。这里的上市利得是指企业在上市行为所获得的净收益。 如何评估壳资源价值 (一)割差法。 割差法是在评估商誉时所广泛采用的一种方法，即根据企业整体评估价值与各单位资产评估值之和进行比较来确定商誉的价值。壳资源与企业商誉具有相似的特点，并可以作为广泛意义上的商誉来看待。基本公式为:壳资源价值:收购方取得控股权地位所支付的价款一控股权所对应的壳公司的净资产，其中:控股权所对应的壳公司的净资产,控股比率X壳公司总的净资产，壳公司总的净资产可以由壳公司各单项资产评估加和获得。此公式将壳资源的价值看作是广泛意义上的壳公司的商誉，由此其他的评估商誉的方法，如超额收益法，也适用于壳资源价值的评估。因为收购公司购买壳资源后，在壳公司的经营存续期内收购公司利用壳资源得到一定的剩余利润。这些剩余利润的现值，可以看作壳资源的价值，因此壳资源的价值也可以描述为壳公司给母公司带来的超出一般同类企业赢利水平的能力或在其续期给收购公司带来的剩余价值的现值和。 (二)市场比较法。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 壳资源实际就是上市公司的上市资格，由于壳资源的存在，便有上市公司与非上市公司在经营收益方面的差异。这样通过上市公司与相同非上市公司的市场价值的比较，便可以衡量出壳资源的价值。 (三)贴现法。 壳资源对收购方效用的大小与资本市场发展情况所决定的壳资源的稀缺程度呈正相关。主要体现在买壳后的筹资能力上，而筹资能力与上市公司资本利得密切相关。收购方买壳后的上市利得可以看作是其买壳后的超额垄断收益，这种收益是从上市后其股票在资本市场上流通筹资的资格即壳资源上得来的，其贴现值即可以表达为壳资源的价值。 用破净率破现率观察熊市底部 现阶段入市投资的机会只适合于两种人:一为股市农夫，二为股市刀客。巴菲特的价值投资是农夫的思维方式———春种秋收，在股市中就是冬买夏卖。冬天来了，春天就不会很远了。 从经济的周期阶段看，2009年将是两个周期的衰退阶段高度重合:一是中国经济的下降周期;二是全球经济的衰退阶段。当人们还在放心阅读各行各业第三季度的报告之时，10月的关键经济数据开始大幅度“跳水”。如果2009年中国经济进入寒冬，严寒的第一场大雪提前下在今秋10月。国企看开工率;民企看停产数;工业看用电量;消费看房市成交量;金融看银行坏账率。种种迹象表明，第三季度GDP增速下滑到9%或许只是冰山一角，第四季度的加速下滑已势在必然。 中国股市是一个非常情绪化的市场，虽然基本面是决定股市长期趋势的最终因素，但在半年乃至一年的短期内，情绪性因素绝对占主导。所以我在对境外人士解读中国股市的时候，总是说中国股市的短期驱动力不是基本面(Fundamental)，也不是技术面(Technical)，而是情绪面(Sentimental)。情绪面驱动的股市在熊市的下行通道中有了三个不同于成熟市场的指标:一是“破发率”，即跌破新股发行价的比率，通常在“破发率”接近80%就确定进入熊市了;二是“破净率”，即跌破净资产的比率，通常在“破净率”接近20%就是熊市的底部了;三是“破现率”，即51%以上的市值低于该公司账面现金的比率，这是我最近提出的一个新指标。在情绪化较高的股市，如果退市机制不强，破现率”就是一个市场情绪极度悲观的指标。甚至在退市机制很强的美国纳斯达克市场，在2000年互联网泡沫破灭之时也出现过一些公司的市值“破现”。当年的搜狐就曾经在账面现金8000多万美金时，市值一度跌到2000多万美金。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 用“破净率”和“破现率”来观察熊市的底部，既是情绪面指标，又是资金面指标。股权投资基金的商业模式，就是在公司上市前投入，培育到一定阶段操作上市后在股市中套现退出。这相当于买了拟上市企业的“期货”，等待企业成为“现货”。一旦股市中的上市公司跌破净资产，甚至跌破现金值，谁还会去投资拟上市公司的“期货”呢,当股权投资所代表的产业投资人开始直接入市买“现货”的时候，资金的净流入趋势就会迅速形成。 此时，虽然上市公司的基本面状态依然在恶化，股价也跌不下去了。因为此时入市投资的产业投资人多半不看代表基本面的现金流和净利润。他们投资的目的主要不是买预期，而是直接买廉价资产、市场份额与行业地位。经营不善但死不了的行业龙头企业都会进入扫描的视野。这种不看企业利润的另类价值投资通常只能发生在股市的严冬时节，因为股市的寒冬再长再冷，也要好于培育企业上市的风险和艰辛。这才到了“买时浪漫”的农夫播种季节，才会最终走出股市的情绪性底部。 用实际股票告诉大家选股方法 1、通过《机构持仓+股东人数+成本》数据表，我们可以看出，机构持仓比例为70%以上，在前期高位至今，机构持仓比例一直处在高位，并未遭遇机构的大幅减持。机构的平均成本是45.56元。即便是今天的收盘价，也未到机构成本价。这就是典型的机构未减，股价却跌了很多。机构的成本价下方介入，结果只有一个:机构帮忙抬轿～ 2、大盘破3000点之后的反弹至今，很多股票都涨幅超过50%了，该股涨幅相对较小，所谓的补涨机会是很大的～它是主力调仓换股的首选。 3、从股东人数的变化我们可以清晰看到，虽有上升，但幅度很小。所以不用担心非机构类的大户有多少力量继续做空。 4、该公司基本面不错。而且未来业绩将继续保持高增长。这一点也可以从机构持仓情况看，它们的目标并不只是80元那么简单～ To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 因为它的筹码大都在机构主力手中，所以象这一类的股票不要太在意它的DDX数据的。成交量不大，但往往可以四两拨千金～ 投行业务关键词:直投+保荐 突击入股 三板扩容 创业板的开闸也催生券商“直投+保荐”新模式的诞生。 统计显示，自2007年9月证监会发放第一张券商直投业务牌照以来，截止到目前，全国已有20多家券商获得了直投牌照，在券商直投参与的公司中，已有十余家正式上市，并且绝大多数为创业板上市公司。 而券商直投所引发的突击入股、PE腐败等涉嫌利益输送的行为，也引发社会激烈讨论。被称为中国“PE腐败第一案”李绍武案，犹如打开了潘多拉魔盒。其后，中信证券投行部原执行总经理谢风华，也涉嫌在ST兴业的重组项目进行内幕交易。受到监管部门调查，谢随即逃往海外，而谢的妻子、华泰证券前执行董事安雪梅，也随即失踪，导致宁波证监局登报“寻人”。除此之外，更有易联众的“蒙面股东”、立思辰的“代持股门”等一系列层出不穷的涉嫌PE腐败的案件。 而在此背景下，一场保荐整风大幕揭开。今年以来，有十余例项目的保荐机构被处罚。 据券商人士透露，证监会正在酝酿推出完善保荐制度的相关举措，包括完善保荐代表人注册制度，扩大现场检查工作主体，严查保代持股等。 此外，在创业板诞生一年后，多层次资本市场建设正如火如荼地进行，市场对新三板大扩容的预期也迅速升温。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 中国证券业协会网站信息显示，9月至今，中证协集中授予了包括华西证券、华泰联合证券、长城证券在内的7家券商主板券商业务资格。截至目前，新三板主办券商数量达到37家。主办券商审批速度的加快，意味着新三板扩容也将提速，改革速度也将加快。 6招“釜底抽薪”不再错过 “釜底抽薪”法就是直接选取市场中的热点板块和个股作为候选股，然后密切观察和分析。市场中的热点多种多样，选择热点股时需要鉴别，下面是采用“釜底抽薪”法选热点股的标准: 一、选择热点股时要考虑到自身的特点 热点有多种类型:有持续时间仅仅几天的短线热点，这类热点适合于短线高手参与，擅长于短线操作的投资者可以在建立完善的风险控制机制和经过周密的准备前提下选择该类热点股。还有持续时间更短的盘中热点，这类股票由于受意外消息影响，股价在盘中一度能迅速拔高上涨，但昙花一现后随即在盘中回落。此类热点股只适合那些已经持有该股的投资 者卖出，而不适宜买进。 还有伴随着一轮波段行情的兴起而兴起，伴随着波段行情衰落而消失，具有很强的阶段性特征的热点，这类阶段性热点比较适合于擅长中线波段操作的投资者选择，最值得关注的 是贯穿整轮行情始终的市场主流热点。 二、要选“龙头型”热点回避“蛇尾型”热点 所谓“龙头型”热点是指那些先于大盘企稳、先于大盘放量、先于大盘启动、涨幅较大，引领市场行情的热点股，选择这类热点股往往有较多的投资机会和丰厚的获利空间。而“蛇尾型”热点是指那些后于大盘放量、后于大盘启动的补涨股，当它们启动之时往往是一轮行 情见顶之日，所以，投资者不宜选择后者。 三、关注热点的资金凝聚力 同样是热点股，但对市场资金的吸引力是不同的。股价的运动最终需要依赖资金的推动， 有较大资金凝聚力的热点更有上涨潜力。 四、关注热点的市场号召力 以金融股和玻璃股为例，这两个板块中的股票数量都不多，而且都比较活跃。但是，它们对整个市场的影响力是完全不同的，玻璃股形成热点时往往只能自拉自唱，不能在市场中形成合力作用。而金融股一旦活跃起来后，对整个市场将产生较大影响力，有时甚至能够带动起一轮行情，投资者在选择热点股时绝对不能轻视类似金融股这样有强大市场号召力的板 块。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 五、关注热点股的板块效应 中国有句古话:“孤掌难鸣”，单一个股的热点往往难以持久，而同一板块个股之间的相互扶持，共同发展才会形成有长久生命力的热点板块。特别是当板块效应形成之后，其中的部分个股会得到主流资金的积极关照成为市场瞩目的焦点，持有这类个股的投资者往往能取 得极为丰厚的收益。 六、关注热点所处的生命阶段 热点也是具有生命周期的，可以分为幼儿期、成长期、成熟期和衰老期。从绝对股价的高低而言，幼儿期的股价是最低的，如果投资者此时介入，在热点兴起后将获利最丰厚，但是热点在幼儿期时生命力也是最脆弱的，由于有多种不确定因素，有时即使有增量资金介入，也并不能保证该股一定有良好涨势。真正有生命力，也是最适合介入的阶段是热点的成长期。这一阶段股价上升最快，受外界因素干扰最少，也是最容易获利阶段。但是，很多投资者对成长期的热点股心存顾虑。因为，很多投资者在选择热点股时，最关心的是该股已经涨了多少，如果涨了很多，就不愿追涨。这其实是一种典型的投资误区。选择热点股最重要的不是看该股以前涨多少，关键是要看其以后还能涨多少。而研判个股未来的涨幅，需要分析该股曾经是否有过蓄势的过程，蓄势越充分的个股，涨升潜力也越大。分析个股的蓄势情况要注意该股在启动前是否有构筑长期底部过程，是否有筹码收集过程，指标是否曾经处于长期超 卖的钝化状况中，成交量是否有不规则放大迹象等等。 市净率指什么? 不少分析文章都提到"市净率",它指什么呢? 市净率指的是市价与每股净资产之间的比值,比值越低意味着风险越低。 市净率=股票市价/每股净资产。 净资产的多少是由股份公司经营状况决定的,股份公司的经营业绩越好,其资产增值越快,股票净值就越高,因此股东所拥有的权益也越多。 一般来说市净率较低的股票,投资价值较高,相反,则投资价值较低。但在判断投资价值时还要考虑当时的市场环境以及公司经营情况、盈利能力等因素。 通胀加重 理财师建议用“保值股”保卫钱袋子 通货膨胀能影响股市，是因为货币供应量的增减可以影响到股票价格。一般来讲，当货币供应量增加，多余的社会购买力便会涌入到股市，抬高股价。相反，要是货币供应量减少，社To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 会购买力低，投资少，股市就陷入低迷，股价也因此不振。目前通胀预期加重，理财师建议， 不妨把更多家庭资产投入股市及偏股型理财工具。 展恒理财顾问鲍学广能明显感觉到，随着CPI持续增长，向他咨询家庭理财的客户对 通货膨胀的忧虑感也在飙升。这次，现金真的成了烫手的山芋。 近期通胀源于流动性 如果顺着时间来回顾一下改革开放之后的通货膨胀，简单讲有四次，各有特点。1987、1988年，无疑是一个经济扩张的阶段。第二次发生在1993年上半年，接下来2003年，全国居民消费价格总水平比上年上涨1.2%。其中，谷物上涨2.3%，棉花上涨35.3%，油料上涨19.4%，畜产品上涨1.8%———这些数字标志着第三次通胀来袭。最后一次从2005年开始，至2008年结束，是由于经济增长过快和长期的国际顺差所导致的通货膨胀。 而就在近期，四万亿经济刺激政策已于2008年末实施，美国又向全世界释放出了第二轮宽松货币政策的预期，对本轮通胀的担忧产生并空前强烈。“追溯近期通胀的主因，并不 在供需失衡，而在流动性失控，和人民币升值预期导致的热钱横流。”鲍学广认为。 资金入市寻求避险 如何选择正确的理财工具，来做属于自己的资产配置，防抗通胀呢,鲍学广建议说，首先，由于政府调控政策还在不断出台，所以不建议在现阶段加大房地产投资，“房地产投资不应该超过家庭资产30%。”至于债券类基金，他认为相对收益比较稳定，可以酌情配置1 0%-20%。 股票很重要。“国庆后中国股市迎来了大涨，特别是防通胀板块明显资金流入，这说明有资金进入股市寻求通胀下的避险效果。”鲍学广分析，“虽然近期是出现了一定幅度的调整， 但3000点附近的中国股市依然是估值相对合理的投资区间。” 他建议大家可以综合考虑自己的风险承受能力和收益预期，将家庭资产的50%-60%进行股票类金融工具的配置，具体品种肯定要根据自家资产情况，可选择开放式基金，封闭 式基金，券商集合理财，阳光私募，TOT(信托中的信托)等理财工具。 25条股票投资法则 1。投资很有趣、很刺激，但如果你不下功夫研究基本面的话，那就会很危险。 2。作为业余投资者，如果充分发挥你的独特优势来投资于自己充分了解的公司和行业， 那么你肯定会打败那些投资专家们。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 3。业余投资者尽可以忽略这群专业机构投资者，照样战胜市场。 4。每只股票后面其实都是一家公司，你得弄清楚这家公司到底是如何经营的。 5。长期而言，一家公司业绩表现肯定与其股价表现是完全相关的。弄清楚短期和长期 业绩表现与股价表现相关性的差别，是投资赚钱的关键。耐心持有终有回报。 6。弄清楚你持股的公司基本面究竟如何，你得搞明白持有这只股票的理由究竟是什么。 7。想着一旦赌赢就会大赚一把，结果往往会大输一把。 8。把股票看做是你的孩子，但是养孩子不能太多，我建议业余投资者在任何时候都不 要同时持有5只以上的股票。 9。如果你怎么也找不到一只值得投资的上市公司股票，那么就远离股市。 10。永远不要投资你不了解其财务状况的公司股票。在买入股票之前，一定要先检查 一下公司的资产负债表，看看公司是否有足够的偿债能力，有没有破产风险。 11。避开那些热门股。冷门行业和没有增长的行业中的卓越公司股票往往会成为最赚 钱的大牛股。 12。对于小公司股票来说，你最好等到这些小公司开始实现盈利时，再考虑投资也不 迟。 13。如果你打算投资一个正处于困境之中的行业，一定要投资那些有能力渡过难关的 公司，而且一定要等到行业出现复苏的信号。 14。如果你在1只股票上投资1000元，即使亏光也不过1000元，但如果耐心持有，可能会赚1000元甚至50000元。只要找到几只大牛股，集中投资，业余投资者花费的时 间精力就远远物超所值。 15。在任何一个行业，平时留心观察的业余投资者就会发现那些卓越的高成长公司， 而且发现时间远远早于那些专业投资者。 16。股市中经常会出现股价大跌，对于事先准备的投资者来说反而是一个低价买入的 绝佳机会。 17。每个人都有投资股票赚钱所需要的知识，但并非每个人都有投资股票赚钱所需要 的胆略，有识且有胆才能在股票投资上赚大钱。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 18。总会有事让人担心。放心，天塌不下来。除非公司基本面恶化，否则坚决不要恐 慌抛出好公司股票。 19。不要理会任何对未来利率、宏观经济和股市的预测，集中精力关注你投资的公司 正发生什么变化。 20。在股市中总会有意外发现，那就是业绩表现良好却被专业机构投资者忽视的好公 司股票。 21。不研究公司基本面就买股票，就像不看牌就打牌一样。 22。当你持有好公司的股票时，持有时间越长，赚钱的机会就越大。 23。如果你有胆投资股票，却没有时间也没有兴趣做功课研究基本面，那么你的最佳 选择是投资股票型基金，好的基金要坚决长期持有。 24。你可以购买那些投资于海外股市且业绩表现良好的基金，从而分享其他国家股市 的高成长。 25。长期而言，投资一个由精心挑选的股票或股票投资基金的投资组合，业绩肯定要远胜一个由债券或债券基金构成的投资组合，但投资一个胡乱挑选的股票构成的投资组合， 还不如把钱放在床底下更安全。 幸福投资的九条密码之一 很多初涉股市的投资者往往喜欢在股市里追涨杀跌，幻想着一夜暴富，所以总是满仓，永远满仓。刚刚从一只股票出来，总是害怕踏空，就会迫不及待地买入，手中没有股票，心里总不踏实，这是很多不幸福的投资者最爱犯的毛病。 但事实上，虽然短线买卖在短时间跨度可以做到很成功，长期操作下去，世界上却还没有一个靠股票的短线买卖，能够长期保持一大笔财富的人。 所谓的短线高手最终都会陨落，这是世界股票市场发展历史告诉我们的，那些神奇的传说毕竟只是水中花，镜中月，很多人沉迷于追涨杀跌，总想快速达到顶端。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 其实哲学道理很简单，越是微观的世界，波动就越没有规律性。因此越是短线就越不可测，但操作股票不可能没有预期，如果你不预期到短线它可能上涨，相信你不会进行交易。 幸福的投资者应该制定一个合适的投资策略，不能盲目投资，定一个不太高的期望值，边学习边摸索，逐步地积累操作经验，而不要期望值过高，想着一买入就能赚大钱，这些都是盲目的，也常会让投资者损失巨大。 切记真正的财富积累途径是通过“适当”的常年平均报酬率加上时间的“复利”作用而实现的，并不是短期里进进出出的投机或梦想一夜暴富的赌博之类的东西。 抢反弹的几个基本定律 弹性定律:股市下跌如皮球下落，跌得越猛，反弹越快;跌得越深，反弹越高;缓缓阴跌中的反弹往往有气无力，缺乏参与的价值，可操作性不强;而暴跌中的报复性反弹和超跌反弹， 则因为具有一定的反弹获利空间，因而具有一定的参与价值和可操作性。 抢点定律:抢反弹一定要抢到两个点:买点和热点，而且缺一不可。因为，反弹的持续时间不长，涨升空间有限，如果没有把握合适的买点，就不能贸然追高，以免陷入被套的困境。另外，每次值得参与的反弹行情中必然有明显的热点，热点板块容易激发市场的人气，引发较大幅度的反弹，主力资金往往以这类板块作为启动反弹的支点。通常热点个股的涨升力度强，在反弹行情中，投资者只有把握住这类热点，才能真正抓住反弹的短线获利机会。 时机定律:买进时机要耐心等、卖出时机不宜等。抢反弹的操作和上涨行情中的操作不同，上涨行情中一般要等待涨势结束时，股价已经停止上涨并回落时才卖出，但是在反弹行情中的卖出不宜等待涨势将尽的时候。抢反弹操作中要强调及早卖出，一般在有所盈利以后就要果断获利了结;如果因为某种原因暂时还没有获利，而大盘的反弹即将到达其理论空间的位置时，也要果断卖出。因为反弹行情的持续时间和涨升空间都是有限的，如果等到确认 阶段性顶部后再卖出，就为时已晚了。 决策定律:投资决策以策略为主，以预测为辅。反弹行情的趋势发展往往不明显，行情发展的变数较大，预测的难度较大，所以，参与反弹行情要以策略为主，以预测为辅，当投 资策略与投资预测相违背时，则依据策略做出买卖决定，而不能依赖预测的结果。 转化定律:反弹未必能演化为反转，但反转却一定由反弹演化而来。但是，一轮跌市行情中能转化为反转的反弹只有一次，其余多次反弹都将引发更大的跌势。为了博一次反转的To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 机会而抢反弹的投资者常常因此被套牢在下跌途中的半山腰间，所以千万不能把反弹行情当 作反转行情来做。 通胀与通胀背景下的投资选择 近期社会上最关注的莫过于消费品物价的连续上涨。比如白糖、棉花、苹果的价格上涨到业内人士也为之瞠目的地步，又如上海、深圳的某些日用品价格超过了香港。这些现象引起了社会各阶层的关注和担忧。 周小川曾指出“货币政策要把握好实现币值稳定、经济增长、充分就业、国际收支平衡四大目标之间的平衡，既要做到统筹兼顾，全面协调，又要根据一段时期内宏观经济运行中的主要矛盾和突出问题，有所侧重，以不同的权重考虑多个目标，合理把握政策实施的力度、节奏和重点。” 应当说今年10月前，货币政策的侧重点在于保增长，10月份在国内通胀快速上涨、经济增长得到稳固、美国决定实施第二轮量化宽松的前提下，央行才开始了加息、提高准备金率等紧缩货币政策。我们预计，未来一个阶段货币政策的侧重点将从保增长转向调控通胀。 在当下国内外流动性充裕，通胀预期不断加强，货币流通速度加快的情况下，通胀压力和通胀预期仍在继续上升。央行还会陆续出台紧缩货币的措施，来保证货币条件逐渐回归常态。我们相信政府是有能力勒住通胀的缰绳。首先，是各类产品供应充裕，没有出现趋势性的短缺;其次是随着流动性的不断收紧，会降低货币流通速度和通胀预期;最后，是增加产品供应、限制商品价格涨幅、补贴、打击炒作等，可以抑制价格的飙升。 10月份，银行体系的居民存款减少7000亿元，显示居民对持续负利率和高通胀的担忧。股市、楼市、期货;信托、基金、银行理财产品,各类投资工具琳琅满目，如何选择才能战胜通货膨胀呢,建议大家考虑分散化原则和关注绝对收益的投资品种。只有分散化投资才能降低风险;只有实现绝对收益，才能克服通胀压力，实现资产的保值增值。 希腊债务危机告诉我们什么 希腊主权债务危机去年底浮出水面，后经一波三折，以今年5月初欧盟与IMF联手推出7500亿欧元援助计划为标志，进入调整阶段。近来危机虽有缓和迹象，但其前景受深层结构困扰，仍有诸多不确定性。 希腊危机根源何在,人们普遍谈论的宏观失衡确实是一个重要因素。作为欧盟成员国中规模较小、较不富裕的国家，1999-2008年间希腊GDP年均增长率为3.9%，显著高于欧盟平均水平。然而希腊经济过度依赖消费，同一时期经济增长对消费依赖程度平均为90.4%，导致外部逆差扩大、政府债台高筑。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 2000-2008年间，货物贸易逆差和服务贸易顺差占希腊GDP比例平均分别为18.3%和5.5%。考虑进资本收入、转移支付等其它项目，希腊近年的经常性账户逆差占GDP比例通常维持在10%以上。同时，政府债务不断累积，到了难以持续的地步。2009年政府债务率达到110%。这意味着，假定债务平均利率为3%，希腊需要保证GDP增长率超过3%，才能在长期正常支付利息。 维持大比例的外部赤字和债务扩张，必然抬高外债占债务比例。2004-2009年希腊外债从1220亿欧元上升到2230欧元，占GDP比率从65%上升到93%。历史中大量的债务危机案例显示，过度外债比内债更容易导致违约和危机。 希腊债务危机不应忽视的另一个根源，是希腊在加入欧元区后，丧失了汇率和利率两大调节宏观失衡的基本手段。对比希腊上世纪后期的宏观经济表现，有助于我们认识放弃利率和汇率调节工具的负面影响。 上世纪70-80年代，希腊也曾经历宏观经济严重失衡局面，1973-1993年通胀率一直维持在二位数，平均高达18%。为了应对严重通胀，希腊不断提高利率，1973-1993年间将利率从6.1%提高至17.4%。高利率客观上约束了政府举债行为，将赤字率和债务率维持在了相对可控水平。 加入欧元区后，希腊凭借“借来信用”，得以获得廉价融资，但与本国经济基本面相适应的利率调节工具不再发挥作用，在客观上助长了过度借贷消费，导致危机的发生。 丧失汇率工具更使得希腊难以有效、主动地调节外部失衡。加入欧元区前，希腊外部失衡维持在比较可控的范围。上世纪90年代，希腊贸易赤字增长，促使希腊本币德拉克马贬值调节。加入欧元区后，希腊贸易赤字率高达两位数，但欧元却因欧元区整体宏观经济强劲而显著升值，客观上加剧了希腊外部失衡。 可以说，丧失货币与利率工具有点像丧失免疫功能，会使经济有机体陷入危险境地。需要指出的是，即使当时拥有独立货币政策和利率调节手段，希腊在上个世纪仍然被宏观经济失衡所拖累，然而毕竟不至于发生目前这样深重严峻并具有全球影响的危机。 欧盟拥有发达和成熟的市场体系和宏观管理能力，欧元问世被看作新世纪重大而成功的制度创新，欧债危机如华尔街危机一样令人惊诧，对我们认识全球化背景下开放宏观经济运行的原理和规律，很有借鉴意义。 一是希腊危机有助于我们全面理解危机发生的根源。现代经济运行离不开市场与政府间的交互作用。经济增长是市场机制和政府调节良性互动的结果，相反，危机也总是与市场失灵和政府干预缺陷有关。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement. 华尔街金融危机说明，货币过度扩张与缺乏监管的市场逐利冲动相结合，有可能为危机因素的滋长提供适宜的温床。希腊和欧债危机则提醒我们，政府失误也可能成为危机“完美风暴”发生的关键因素。希腊政府鼓励过度消费是危机重要根源之一，财政数据造假更是政府失败的典型表现。欧元区治理结构的设计和操作缺陷，对危机发生也难辞其咎。 二是这场危机强调了财政纪律的重要性。欧元区制定了“3%和60%”标准，说明并不缺乏对财政纪律重要性的一般认识。然而相关标准并未得到真正落实，很大程度流于形式。比如，希腊加入欧元区后，就财政标准而言，只有个别年份“达标”，财政纪律松弛成为危机酝酿爆发的必要条件之一。中国目前财政状况总体尚属稳健，然而重视财政纪律原则，对中国仍然具有长期借鉴意义。 三是它凸显了宏观失衡的危害。经济增长近九成靠消费推动，贸易赤字率十多年持续超过10%，是一系列的宏观失衡促成希腊债务危机。进入新世纪以来，中国面临国际收支“双顺差”困扰。虽然中国外部失衡有自身特点，然而欧债危机对中国还是有很强的警示意义。 四是这场危机应当让我们重估放弃货币调节手段的利弊得失。放弃主权货币、采纳区域货币，确有可能带来利益，如节省交易成本，促进要素流动等。然而其真实代价则可能要通过一次重大危机，才会被充分展现和具体认知。希腊危机表明，在国际财政有效约束机制这个前提条件真正得到满足之前，过分看重固定汇率或单一区域货币带来的利益，放弃主权货币及汇率和利率调节机制，存在重大危机隐患，本质上难以持续。进入新世纪以来，中国在新形势下面临如何选择汇率体制和评估国际货币体系等重大问题。欧元初步实践和希腊危机教训，对求解上述问题具有重要价值。 To insisted from actual starting, classification Guide, put focus put in grass-roots, put in branch, timely summary promotion grass-roots branch in learning education aspects of good experience, and good practices, timely found and corrected signs sex, and tendency problem; to strengthened publicity Guide, full using water website, timely publicity interpretation Central, and provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of deployment and requirements, followed up reported progress and effectiveness, efforts for learning education create good of opinion atmosphere. Second lead. Education of leading cadres is not only learning organisers, facilitators and regulators, but also participants, always at the forefront, as a good example, set strict demands on themselves, and set an example by asking others to do it, first do; others not doing, he determined not to do. Example of superior to subordinate, team leader for team members for example, level to level, level with the level, layer model, layers of lead, formation of the shots, the overall general effect of linkage. While, regardless of what ranks, what post of members leaders, are to to General members identity put himself pendulum in, implementation provincial, and municipal draw party on learning education of the requirements, strictly implementation double organised, basic system, lead learning discussion, lead on experience, and told party lecture, and for report, lead participate in organised will, and democratic comments, lead shoe vocational due diligence, and based post for contribution, efforts do one "four told four has" of qualified Communist, strive to makes learning research more in-depth, check pendulum problem more deep, Rectification to implement more thorough, more venerable pioneer imagededicated, and is responsible for, and realistic" of water industry spirit, always keep high up of spirit style, keep promising of spirit State, according to "stability in the seeking good, and innovation development" of total thought, to speed up water based facilities construction, Focus on the development of livelihood water and focus on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the water, to strengthen the management, deepening reform in water conservancy, ensure the safety of flood control, water resources across the new effects, new breakthroughs were made. Each unit to co-ordinate arrangements, learning education and work closely in order to learn the education for work, ensuring that ... Knit leadership is effective, the programme measures is not a scientific, learning education is intense and orderly. Therefore, party organizations at all levels should put up your tree of responsibility, carried the main responsibility, and demonstrable, scientific, solid and effective, and make sure that "two" achieved real results in education. To carry out the responsibility. Party organizations at all levels should put "two" education as a major political task, strengthen organizational leadership, carefully steering the Steering, do a good job overall, study and solve problems in a timely manner. Principal responsible comrades of the party organizations at all levels must conscientiously assume the responsibility for mission, hands-on, invest enough time and energy, strengthen guidance and control role, personally approved the programme of work, on the important task of personally deployed, problems to solve, an uphill battle to put the responsibility on his shoulders, not as "shuaishouzhanggui". Each branch, each unit should strengthen the planning, scheduling and directing, good design, decomposition, each key action to implement.