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现在是脱离美元的时候了

2018-04-13 6页 doc 22KB 8阅读

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现在是脱离美元的时候了现在是脱离美元的时候了 作者:北京大学金融系教授 迈克尔•佩蒂斯 为英国《金融时报》撰稿 Every 20 to 30 years – whenever, it 每过二三十年——似乎就是每当美seems, that America’s current account 国经常账户赤字飚升的时候——我们就deficits surge – we hear dire warnings 会听到有关美元作为世界储备货币的统about the end of the dollar’s dominance as 治性地位将结束的严重警告。过...
现在是脱离美元的时候了
现在是脱离美元的时候了 作者:北京大学金融系教授 迈克尔•佩蒂斯 为英国《金融时报》撰稿 Every 20 to 30 years – whenever, it 每过二三十年——似乎就是每当美seems, that America’s current account 国经常账户赤字飚升的时候——我们就deficits surge – we hear dire warnings 会听到有关美元作为世界储备货币的统about the end of the dollar’s dominance as 治性地位将结束的严重警告。过去几年,the world’s reserve currency. In the past 这些警告不减反增。但与过去一样,这 few years these warnings have only 些预言可能仍是错的。 intensified. But these predictions are likely to be as wrong now as they have been in the past. Reserve currency status is a global 储备货币是一种具有附加成本的全public good that comes with a cost. With the 球性公共品。也许除了未来10年内可能exception perhaps of the euro, which may 崛起的欧元,没有任何其它货币具备服emerge in the next decade, no other currency 务全球经济需要的必要特征。而且,无has the necessary characteristics to allow 论是欧洲还是其它任何国家,都不会愿it plausibly to serve the needs of the global 意承担所附加的成本。只有华盛顿自己economy. And neither any other country nor 带头迫使世界逐渐脱离美元,美元的地Europe will be willing to pay the cost. If 位在未来才会下降。 the dollar’s status is to decline in the future, it will require that Washington itself take the lead in forcing the world gradually to disengage Ironically, this is exactly what 饶有讽刺意味的是,华盛顿也恰恰Washington should be doing. Conspiracy 应该这么做。尽管阴谋论当道,但美元theory notwithstanding, claims that the 储备货币的地位让美国不当得益的说reserve status of the dollar unfairly 法,已经失真。相反,它对于美国和世benefits the US are no longer true. On the 界都已经构成一种负担。 contrary, it has become a burden, both for America and the world. During the first few decades of the 在战后头几十年里,维持美元储备post-war period, the cost of maintaining the 货币地位所付出的成本是划算的,因为dollar’s status could be justified by the 世界经济保持稳定且不断增长,加之冷incremental benefits to the US of a stable 战时期的种种限制,让美国不断获益。and growing world economy, within cold war 但从上世纪80年代起,其它国家的贸易constraints. But beginning in the 1980s, 政策大大提高了美国的成本,而冷战的trade policies abroad have sharply raised 结束也限制了这一地位带来的好处。 the cost to the US, while the end of the cold war has limited the benefits. This cost comes as a choice between 成本就是要么失业率升高、要么债rising unemployment and rising debt. The 务增加,取决于美国怎么选。其机制相mechanism is fairly straightforward. 当简单明了。如果一国试图通过获取全Countries that seek to supercharge domestic 球更大份额需求、以为国内增长提供超growth by acquiring a larger share of global 强动力,那它可以利用全球储备体系积demand can do so by gaming the global system 极囤积外汇储备,主要形式是央行储备,and actively stockpiling foreign currency, 但不仅限于此。 mainly in the form of, but not limited to, central bank reserves. In practice, dollar liquidity, limited 实践中,美元的流动性、华盛顿有Washington intervention, and the size and 限的干预、以及美国金融市场的规模与flexibility of US financial markets ensure 灵活性,决定了中国等国家会囤积美元。that countries such as China stockpile 除美元外它们别无选择,而且大多数国dollars. There is no alternative, and most 家政府都不鼓励对本国货币的超大规模 other governments would discourage 购买。但外国购买美元,必然会迫使美 substantial purchases of their own 国出现相应的经常账户赤字。换句话说,currencies. But foreign acquisition of 他国积极的贸易干预,须以美国贸易赤dollars automatically forces the US into 字的上升进行调节。 running a corresponding current account deficit. Active trade intervention abroad, in other words, is accommodated by rising trade deficits in the US. This importing of US demand by other 其它国家这种进口美国需求的做countries forces the US economy to respond 法,导致美国经济必然会出现下面两种 in one of two ways. Either American 现象中的一种。要么美国失业率会因为unemployment must rise as demand is diverted 大量需求转移至海外而上升,要么美国abroad, or Americans must counteract the 必须通过扩大国内消费或投资、抵消需employment impact by increasing domestic 求转移对就业的影响。 consumption or investment. Without government intervention, there 如果没有政府的干预,国内投资是is no reason for domestic investment to rise 不会因为海外的政策而上升的。相反,in response to policies abroad. On the 随着国内需求的转移,私人投资甚至可contrary, with the diversion of domestic 能下降。所以,为了限制就业受到的影demand private investment may even decline. 响,流入美国境内的资金,必须被用来So in order to limit the impact on jobs, 刺激美国国内消费增加。换言之,美国capital flows into the US must finance 人必须在失业率升高、还是债务升高之additional US consumption. Americans, in 间做出选择。过去,美联储(Fed)选择了other words, must choose between higher 鼓励增加债务。 unemployment and higher debt. In the past the Federal Reserve has chosen to encourage higher debt. But what about the benefits to the US of 但储备货币地位难道没有给美国带reserve currency status? Analysts argue that 来什么好处吗,师认为,美元的主the predominance of the dollar gives the US 导地位给美国带来了两个好处:进口成two: reduced cost of imports and lower 本与政府借款成本双双下降。这两个论government borrowing costs. Both arguments 点均存在错误。美国人已经在过度消费,are flawed. Americans over-consume, and don’根本不需要降低消费成本,尤其是还以t need lower consumption costs, especially 牺牲就业为代价。况且,如果消费成本at the expense of employment. And if cheaper 降低真是如此珍贵的赠与,那么,你将consumption is really such a gift, it is hard 很难解释,为何美国投桃报李的尝试—to explain why attempts by the US to return —要求其它国家重估本国货币,从而降the gift – by demanding that foreigners 低它们自己消费者的成本——总是遭到revalue their currencies and so reduce costs 愤怒的拒绝。 for their own consumers – are always so indignantly rejected. As for borrowing, creditworthiness 至于借款,信誉比货币地位更加重matters more than currency status. Reserve 要。储备货币的地位增加了美国的借款,status increases US borrowing, and thus 削弱了美国以较低成本为自身融资的能undermines the ability of the US Treasury to 力,比失去储备货币地位可能造成的破finance itself cheaply more than would 坏更为严重。 losing reserve status. The large imbalances that this system 在当前体系下得以维持的巨额失has permitted now destabilise the world. If 衡,如今正在破坏世界的稳定。如果被forced to give up the dollar, the world might 迫放弃美元,全球贸易可能会略有减少、reduce global trade somewhat, and it would 亚洲增长模式大概也将宣告结束。但这probably spell the end of the Asian growth 同时也将降低美国的长期成本、缓解危model. But it would also lower long-term 险的全球失衡。 costs for the US, and reduce dangerous global imbalances. The US should therefore take the lead in 因此,美国应该带头转向多币种储shifting to multi-currency reserves, in 备货币体系,让美元仅仅扮演最主要的which the dollar is simply first among 储备货币角色。 equals. The writer is a finance professor at 本文作者是北京大学金融学教授、Peking University and a senior associate at 及卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie the Carnegie Endowment Endowment)高级会员。 译者/何黎
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