债券市场2013年投资策略—经济由稳到进，“高息策略”可取

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� ?????? ? ?????? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ ፃเႀሷ҂ᤉἻþᰴৌኖ႕ÿԻԩ 2012ᑈ 12᳜ 12᮹ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᵫᳱᰪ ⬉䆱˖021-68768176 䚂ӊ˖linchaohui@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512080003 Ⳍ݇ⷨお 1ˊ2012 ᑈ㄀ಯᄷᑺ؎Ꮦᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ˉ㒣⌢ৃ ᕵހᆦˈ؎Ꮦ䳔㗤⾟ޝ .......... .2012-09-24 2ˊ2012 ᑈϟञᑈ؎Ꮦᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹—㒣⌢᥶ᑩ ಲछˈ؎Ꮦ⬅ᬏ䕀䰆 .............. 2012-06-27 ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ 㒣⌢๲䭓᳝ᳯ⏽੠ಲछᑊᏺࡼCPI⍼ᐙ䗖ᑺডᔍDŽ೼Ҟᑈ㒣⌢ᅠ៤᥶ᑩ䖛⿟Ёˈ 䋻Ꮥֵ䌋ҡ䍋ࠄ佪㽕Ӵࡼ԰⫼ˈᑊᏺࡼ೎ᅮᡩ䌘੠ὐᏖㄝ⏤䖯ಲछDŽᯢᑈ䋻Ꮥ ֵ䌋๲䭓ϡ݋ݙ⫳⫊乜ˈ݊ᇍЏᇐ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘݙ䳔ᇚ㒻㓁থ᣹ᢝࡼ԰⫼ˈ ৠᯊᯢᑈ໪䳔ߎষ乘䅵ᇚ↨Ҟᑈ⿡᳝ᬍ㾖 ೼ˈℸ㚠᱃ϟ៥೑ GDP๲䗳᳝ᳯ㓧छ 㟇 8%៪⿡催∈ᑇDŽ㒣⌢๲䗳⏽੠ಲछг᳝ᳯ᥼ࡼᯢᑈ䗮㚔∈ᑇ䕗Ҟᑈথ⫳Ϟ ⿏DŽ 䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ⬅䕀৥ࠄ䖯ϔℹ⏅࣪䕀ൟDŽ2010 ᑈᑩҹᴹ៥೑䋻ᏕᬓㄪҢࡴᙃࠄ䰡 ᙃ਼ᳳⳌᇍ໪䚼ⱘ⣀ゟᗻপᕫᯢ⹂ᦤछ ডˈ᯴ߎЁǃ㕢ϸ೑೼ܼ⧗㒣⌢ЁⱘĀঠ ᵕāഄԡ᮹Ⲟᰒ⦄DŽ䖯ܹҞᑈҹᴹᄬ䌋ℒ߽⥛Ꮦഎ࣪⿟ᑺࡴ䗳᥼䖯ˈৠᯊ䋻Ꮥ Ꮦഎ߽⥛ⱘᬓㄪᗻഄԡℷ䗤ℹᓎゟDŽ໪∛ऴℒޣ㓧⌕ܹгՓ䫊㸠㋏㒳⌕ࡼᗻ䖛 ࠽⢊މথ⫳䗚䕀ˈϔᮍ䴶ᇐ㟈䌘䞥߽⥛ᑩ䚼ᢀछˈ঺ϔᮍ䴶༂㸠೼⌕ࡼᗻ䇗᥻ ЁⱘЏࡼᗻഄԡᯢᰒᬍ୘ˈ೼ᣕ㓁䗚ಲ䌁䖛⿟Ё༂㸠ᇍ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ⱘᥠ᥻࡯ гᕫࠄᦤछDŽ೼㒣⌢䍄ߎԢ䈋ҹঞ߽⥛Ꮦഎ࣪⿟ᑺϡᮁᦤ催㚠᱃ϟˈᯢᑈ䋻Ꮥ ᬓㄪᘏ䞣Ꮉ݋ᬒᵒԭഄ䕗ᇣˈ݊Ёᄬ䌋ℒ߽⥛ৃ㛑໘Ѣ䰡ᙃ਼ᳳ䖯ܹሒໄⱘ Ā㓈〇ā 䖛⏵ᳳˈ⊩ᅮޚ໛䞥⥛߭ৃ㛑᳝ 2⃵ҹݙϟ䇗ぎ䯈DŽ 2013 ᑈ؎ࠌᏖഎ᳝ᳯҹ⏽੠䇗ᭈЎЏ෎䇗DŽҞᑈ؎ᏖᬊⲞ⥛ᓊ㓁এᑈⱘ䕂ࡼ 㡖༣ᑊ⬅䰡䕀छˈ݊ЁԢ䆘㑻ֵ⫼ѻકᡩ䌘ಲ᡹᳔Ўさߎˈ߽⥛ѻક߭ѻ⫳ϔ ᅮޔӋϟ䎠ᤳ༅DŽ೼ᯢᑈ㒣⌢๲䭓⏽੠ᬍ୘੠䗮㚔∈ᑇ䍟Ѣಲछˈҹঞᘏ䞣䋻 Ꮥᬓㄪҹ〇ЎЏⱘࠡ᱃ϟ ؎ˈᏖ⦃๗ᴵӊϢ 2009ᑈϟञᑈ㟇 2010ᑈࠡ 3ᄷᑺ ⱘ㒣⌢ׂ໡ঞᬓㄪ䖛⏵ᳳ݋᳝ϔᅮ㉏Ԑᗻˈᯢᑈ؎ᏖᬊⲞ⥛гৃ㛑ਜ⦄Ⳍ㉏Ԑ ⱘ৥Ϟऎ䯈䳛㤵DŽԚ⬅ѢⳂࠡ䌘䞥߽⥛ঞ؎Ꮦ߽⥛ഛ催Ѣ 2009 ᑈϟञᑈ㟇 2010ᑈࠡ 3ᄷᑺᳳ䯈ⱘЏԧ⊶ࡼऎ䯈∈ᑇ ೼ˈ᳈催䍋⚍Ϟᯢᑈ؎ᏖᬊⲞ⥛Ϟ㸠 ⊶ࡼऎ䯈ৃ㛑ԢѢϞ䕂ᯊᳳˈ؎Ꮦᘏԧ᳝ᳯਜ⦄⏽੠䇗ᭈḐሔDŽ ҹЁᳳǃ催ᙃǃ䗖ᑺᴴᴚЎЏⱘᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ᓎ䆂DŽᯢᑈ؎Ꮦᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ⱘЏ㽕㗗䞣 ಴㋴ࣙᣀ˖㒣⌢ᑇ〇ׂ໡᳝߽ѢЁԢ䆘㑻ֵ⫼ѻકⱘ䌘䋼⢊މֱᣕ〇ᅮ៪䍟Ѣ ᬍ㾖˗Ⳃࠡ໮᭄؎ࠌᬊⲞ⥛ԄؐಲࠄЁᗻ៪ҹϞ∈ᑇˈখ✻ग़৆ৃ↨ᯊᳳᴹⳟ ᯢᑈ؎ᏖᬊⲞ⥛৥Ϟ⊶ࡼऎ䯈ৃ᥻ 乘ˈ䅵᳔໻Ϟ㸠⊶ᐙ䲒䍙ߎ 50BP 䌘˗䞥߽⥛ ЁᵶᦤछԚ༂㸠ᥠ᥻࡯гϞछˈ乘䅵ᯢᑈ R007᳝ᳯ೼ 3.0%-3.50%П䯈㓈〇⊶ ࡼDŽᣝⳂ߽ࠡ⥛∈ᑇҹঞᬊⲞ⥛Ϟ㸠ϡ䍙ߎ 50BP ⌟ㅫˈᯢᑈ৘㉏؎ࠌᣕ᳝ 1 ᑈ෎ᴀഛৃপᕫℷᡩ䌘ᬊⲞˈৠᯊ೼㗗㰥 R007ԡѢ 3.50%ҹϟᚙމϟˈ3-5ᑈ ᳳֵ⫼ѻકᡩ䌘ᬊⲞഛৃ㽚Ⲫ䌘䞥៤ᴀDŽ㓐ড়ҹϞᚙ᱃಴㋴ˈЁㄝᳳ䰤ǃЁԢ 䆘㑻ֵ⫼ѻકঞ݊䗖ᑺᴴᴚ᪡԰ৃᵘ៤ᯢᑈ؎Ꮦᡩ䌘ⱘЏᠧㄪ⬹DŽབ೼ᬒ໻ 1 סᴴᴚᚙމϟˈ5ᑈᳳ AA㑻Ё⼼ⱘᡩ䌘ಲ᡹⥛ৃᳯ䍙ߎ 6.5%ˈഄ㑻ජᡩ؎ㄝ 催ᙃક⾡ࡴ䗖ᑺᴴᴚⱘᡩ䌘ಲ᡹᭭ৃপᕫ᳈催∈ᑇDŽ ᇍᯢᑈৃ㛑䍙乘ᳳⱘ؎Ꮦ亢䰽⚍԰ߎᦤ⼎DŽᯢᑈ؎Ꮦ䴶Јⱘ䍙乘ᳳ亢䰽⚍Џ㽕 ࣙᣀߎষ໪䳔ߎ⦄䕗ᔎ࢓ᘶ໡ǃ亳કӋḐߎ⦄䕗ᯢᰒϞ⍼ǃ༂㸠䗤ℹĀᖂ䇗ā ᬊ㋻䌘䞥䴶ҹঞ᠓ഄѻǃ䫊䆕⧚䋶ㄝᮍ䴶ⱘѻϮᬓㄪ䇗ᭈˈ݋ԧ䳔㾚ᅲ䰙䖯ሩ ⢊މ԰ߎ䎳䏾ᑨᇍDŽ ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� ᄬै� ᡩ䌘㘮⛺ ....................................................................................................................................... 1 㒣⌢㾺ᑩಲछ䖯⿟ⱘ㒻㓁ሩᓔ .................................................................................................... 2 䋻Ꮥֵ䌋ҡᰃ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘ佪㽕Ӵࡼ࡯ .................................................................................................... 2 ⬅ֵ䌋ࠄ೎ᅮᡩ䌘ঞὐᏖⱘݙ䳔ᠽᓴ ............................................................................................................. 3 ߎষᇍ㒣⌢䋵⤂䰡Ԣঞ݊๲䗳䍟〇 .................................................................................................................. 3 ⠽Ӌ⊶ࡼ݋᳝ϔᅮϞछࡼ࡯ ................................................................................................................................ 4 䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ⬅䕀৥ࠄ⏅࣪䕀ൟ ........................................................................................................ 5 ៥೑䋻ᏕᬓㄪⳌᇍ໪䚼ⱘ⣀ゟᗻ᮹Ⲟᦤछ .................................................................................................... 5 䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ⱘЁᖗ߽⥛ഄԡ䗤ℹᓎゟ ......................................................................................................... 5 ໪⫳ᗻ⌕ࡼᗻ䖛࠽⢊މⱘᡁ䕀ҹঞ䌘䞥߽⥛ᑩ䚼ᢀछ ............................................................................ 6 ༂㸠ᇍ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ⱘᥠ᥻࡯䖯ϔℹ๲ࡴ .................................................................................................... 6 ᯢᑈᘏ䞣ᬓㄪᎹ݋ᬒᵒԭഄ䕗ᇣ ....................................................................................................................... 7 ؎Ꮦ⏽੠䇗ᭈࠡ᱃ҹঞ䗑䗤催ᙃᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ ................................................................................. 7 Ҟᑈ؎Ꮦ㸠ᚙ⊶ࡼ⡍⚍ .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Ҟᑈ؎Ꮦկ㒭⢊މঞᯢᑈথ㸠ࠡ᱃ .................................................................................................................. 8 ᯢᑈᏖഎ⦃๗ⱘग़৆খ✻㋏ ................................................................................................................................ 9 Ⳃࠡ؎ᏖЏ㽕ક⾡Ԅؐ∈ᑇ ................................................................................................................................ 9 Ёᳳǃ催ᙃǃ䗖ᑺᴴᴚⱘЏᠧᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ ....................................................................................................... 10 ֵ⫼ѻકᡩ䌘ⱘ㢹ᑆᮄਃ⼎ .............................................................................................................................. 10 ৃ㛑䍙乘ᳳⱘᏖഎ亢䰽⚍ .......................................................................................................... 12 ߎষ໪䳔ߎ⦄䕗ᔎ࢓ᘶ໡ ................................................................................................................................... 12 ೑ݙ亳કӋḐߎ⦄䕗ᯢᰒϞ⍼ .......................................................................................................................... 13 䌘䞥䴶䖯ܹĀᖂ䇗āᬊ㋻ ................................................................................................................................... 13 㸠Ϯᬓㄪথ⫳ᑆᡄᕅડ ........................................................................................................................................ 14 ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� ଣڏᄬै ೒ 1˖䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䗳䍄࢓ ....................................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 2˖ϝ໻㉏ֵ䌋๲䗳䍄࢓ᇍ↨ ......................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 3˖৘㉏䞥㵡ᴎᵘ↣ᄷֵ䌋໮๲ᚙމᇍ↨ ................................................................................................. 2 ೒ 4˖⼒Ӯ㵡䌘ᘏ䞣⊶ࡼঞ݊㒧ᵘߚᏗ ........................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 5˖⬅ֵ䌋๲䭓ࠄᡩ䌘๲䭓ⱘӴᇐ ............................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 6˖ϝ໻㉏೎ᅮᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇍ↨ ......................................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 7˖⬅ֵ䌋๲䭓ࠄὐᏖ䫔ଂⱘӴᇐ ............................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 8˖⬅ὐᏖ䫔ଂࠄ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘ⱘӴᇐ ................................................................................................. 3 ೒ 9˖ग़ᑈᴹ៥೑ݙ໪䳔㒧ᵘবࡼ .................................................................................................................... 4 ೒ 10˖ࡴᎹ䌌ᯧ䖯ষᇍߎষⱘ乚ܜ䍄࢓ ........................................................................................................ 4 ೒ 11˖CPI⦃↨⊶ࡼঞ݊Ϣग़৆ഛؐᇍ↨ ...................................................................................................... 4 ೒ 12˖CPIǃ亳કঞ䴲亳કӋḐৠ↨⍼ᐙ䍄࢓ ............................................................................................. 4 ೒ 13˖Ё೑ᅮᄬ߽⥛ঞ R007Ϣ㕢㘨ټ߽⥛ᇍ↨ ....................................................................................... 5 ೒ 14˖Ёǃ㕢ϸ೑ 10ᑈᳳ೑؎߽⥛ᇍ↨ ...................................................................................................... 5 ೒ 15˖䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛Ϣ೑ᑧ⦄䞥ᅮᄬ߽⥛ᇍ↨ .......................................................................................... 6 ೒ 16˖䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛Ϣ෎ޚঞᑇഛ䌋ℒ߽⥛ᇍ↨ ....................................................................................... 6 ೒ 17˖৘᳜໪∛ऴℒঞ݀ᓔᏖഎࠄᳳ䌘䞥বࡼ .......................................................................................... 6 ೒ 18˖R007Ϣ 1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛ᇍ↨ ................................................................................................................ 6 ೒ 19˖䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛Ϣ༂㸠᪡԰߽⥛ᇍ↨ ................................................................................................... 7 ೒ 20˖৘᳜ R007ഛؐঞ݊ഛᮍᏂؐ ............................................................................................................... 7 ೒ 21˖1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛Ϣ CPIৠ↨⍼ᐙᇍ↨ ................................................................................................. 7 ೒ 22˖৘᳜໪∛ऴℒǃ༂⼼ࠄᳳঞ䗚ಲ䌁ԭ乱 .......................................................................................... 7 ೒ 23˖5ᑈᳳ೑؎ǃ䞥㵡؎੠Ё⼼ᬊⲞ⥛䍄࢓ ........................................................................................... 8 ೒ 24˖Ё⼼ֵ⫼߽Ꮒ䍄࢓ ..................................................................................................................................... 8 ೒ 25˖ৃ↨ग़৆ᯊᳳҷ㸼ᗻક⾡ᬊⲞ⥛䍄࢓ ............................................................................................... 9 ೒ 26˖ৃ↨ग़৆ᯊᳳҷ㸼ᗻક⾡ᬊⲞ⥛⊶ࡼ⢊މ ......................................................................................... 9 ೒ 27˖೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛Ϣग़৆ഛؐঞᑈݙᵕؐᇍ↨ .......................................................................................... 9 ೒ 28˖䞥㵡؎Ⳍᇍ೑؎߽ᏂϢग़৆ഛؐㄝᇍ↨ .......................................................................................... 9 ೒ 29˖ⷁ㵡ֵ⫼߽ᏂϢग़৆ഛؐঞᑈݙᵕؐᇍ↨ ...................................................................................... 10 ೒ 30˖Ё⼼ֵ⫼߽ᏂϢग़৆ഛؐঞᑈݙᵕؐᇍ↨ ...................................................................................... 10 ೒ 31˖এᑈҹᴹЁ⼼ǃӕϮ؎੠݀ৌ؎থ㸠㡖༣ ...................................................................................... 11 ೒ 32˖䌘䞥੠ᠽᆍ㒘ড়ᴵӊঞЁ⼼ᬊⲞ⥛⊶ࡼ ....................................................................................... 11 ೒ 33˖䖥ᑈᴹ৘㉏Џ㽕؎ࠌথ㸠⢊މ .......................................................................................................... 12 ೒ 34˖䞥㵡؎ঞֵ⫼؎߽Ꮒ⊶ࡼ⢊މ .......................................................................................................... 12 ೒ 35˖៥೑ϔ㠀䌌ᯧ䖯ষϢ৘㉏ߎষᇍ↨ ................................................................................................ 13 ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� ೒ 36˖៥೑ᇍ㕢䖯ǃߎষϢᭈԧ䖯ǃߎষ๲䗳ᇍ↨ .................................................................................. 13 ೒ 37˖CPIᵘ៤ЁЏ㽕亳ક乍ⳂӋḐ⍼ᐙ䍄࢓ ......................................................................................... 13 ೒ 38˖㊂Ӌᣛ᭄ϢĀ㦰㇂ᄤāӋḐᣛ᭄ৠ෎ᇍ↨ .................................................................................. 13 ೒ 39˖ৃ↨ग़৆ᯊᳳݙ༂㸠Āᖂ䇗āᬜᑨ ................................................................................................ 14 ೒ 40˖R007Ϣ 3M_Shiborঞ݊Ѧᤶ߽⥛ᇍ↨ .......................................................................................... 14 ೒ 41˖ҷ㸼ᗻ᠓ഄѻ݀ৌ؎ᬊⲞ⥛䍄࢓ ..................................................................................................... 14 ೒ 42˖䌘䞥ֵᠬѻકᇍ؎ࠌᡩ䌘বࡼ .......................................................................................................... 14 ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� ᛫ಫᄬै 㸼 1˖ᯢᑈ৘㉏Џ㽕؎ࠌ乘䅵থ㸠㾘῵ ........................................................................................................... 8 㸼 2˖᳾ᴹ 1ᑈ৘㉏؎ࠌᣕ᳝ᳳᬊⲞ⥛⌟ㅫ .............................................................................................. 10 㸼 3˖៥೑䖥ᑈᴹֵ⫼џӊ߫В ...................................................................................................................... 11 ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� 1 � આᠫᐑཥ ೼ᅣ㾖㒣⌢ǃ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪঞ⌕ࡼᗻ⢊މⱘӴ㒳ߚᵤḚᶊЁᓩܹ؎Ꮦᮄ⡍ᗻ಴㋴ߚᵤ ᴀ᡹ਞᇍᯢᑈᅣ㾖㒣⌢䍟࢓ǃ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ䍄৥ҹঞ䌘䞥߽⥛⊶ࡼㄝ԰ߎߚᵤˈৠᯊгᇚҞᑈҹ ᴹᕅડࠄ؎Ꮦⱘᮄ⡍ᗻ಴㋴㒇ܹߚᵤḚᶊˈ݋ԧࣙᣀⳈ᥹㵡䌘⏴䘧ᢧᆑঞֵ⫼؎ࠌࡴ䗳ᠽ ᆍǃ៥೑䋻Ꮥᬓㄪԧ㋏᥶㋶䕀ൟǃ䫊㸠㋏㒳䌘䞥䖯ܹᐌᗕ࣪㋻ᑇ㸵Ḑሔҹঞ৘㉏ሲ؎ࠌᬊⲞ ⥛П䯈ߚḷৃ㛑ձ⃵ᢝᓔㄝDŽ ᇍ៥೑䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ䕀ൟᮍ৥ঞ݊؎Ꮦᕅડᦤߎ෎ᴀ⧚㾷 ៥೑䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ䕀ൟ݋ԧ㸼⦄೼䋻ᏕᬓㄪⳌᇍ໪䚼ⱘ⣀ゟᗻ᮹Ⲟ๲ᔎ ೼˗ᄬ䌋ℒ߽⥛Ꮦഎ࣪䖯 ⿟Ё䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ᇚথ᣹᳈䞡㽕ᬓㄪᎹ݋԰⫼ ೼˗䫊㸠ԧ㋏⌕ࡼᗻ䖛࠽থ⫳䗚䕀㚠᱃ϟ༂㸠 ݀ᓔ᪡԰ⱘЏࡼᗻഄԡᯢᰒᦤछDŽҹϞ޴ᮍ䴶ᇍ؎Ꮦⱘᕅડԧ⦄೼䌘䞥߽⥛ᑩ䚼ߎ⦄ᢀछˈ ҹঞ༂㸠ᇍ䌘䞥߽⥛ⱘᥠ᥻࡯гᇚ๲ᔎDŽ ҢⳂࠡ؎ᏖԄؐঞϢᯢᑈৃ↨ग़৆ᯊᳳⱘঠ䞡⬠ᅮЁ㒭ߎ᳾ᴹ؎Ꮦ䍟࢓߸ᮁ 䰸ᇍ೑؎ǃ䞥㵡؎ǃЁⷁᳳ㵡䌘ࠌ᳔ᮄᬊⲞ⥛䖯㸠ग़৆Ԅؐ↨䕗ҹ໪ˈᴀ᡹ਞ䖬ḍ᥂ᇍᯢᑈ 㒣⌢ᔶ࢓੠ᬓㄪࠡ᱃ⱘ෎ᴀሩᳯˈ䗝পϢᯢᑈᏖഎ⦃๗Ⳍ㉏Ԑⱘग़৆ৃ↨ᯊᳳˈᑊ䗮䖛ᇚ؎ ࠌԄؐϢग़৆㸠ᚙⳌ㒧ড়ˈ㓐ড়߸ᮁᯢᑈ؎Ꮦৃ㛑ਜ⦄⏽੠䇗ᭈˈᑊ䆘Ԅ݊ᬊⲞ⥛Ϟ㸠⊶ࡼ ऎ䯈䲒䍙ߎ 50BPDŽ ᇍᵘ៤ᯢᑈ؎Ꮦㄪ⬹䞡⚍ⱘֵ⫼ѻકᡩ䌘ᦤߎᮄਃ⼎ ೼ֵ⫼ѻકᡩ䌘ᮍ䴶ⱘЏ㽕݇⊼⚍ࣙᣀ䌘䞥㋻ᑇ㸵Ϣ؎Ꮦ໻ᠽᆍ঴ࡴᴵӊᇍֵ⫼؎߽⥛⊶ ࡼⱘᕅડˈֵ⫼؎䖱㑺ϔᮺ៤ⳳᇍ؎Ꮦⱘৃ㛑ކߏ⿟ᑺˈҹঞЁԢ䆘㑻ֵ⫼ѻકⱘֵ⫼߽Ꮒ ড়⧚ᠽሩ䍟࢓DŽ ᇍᯢᑈৃ㛑䍙乘ᳳⱘ؎Ꮦ亢䰽⚍԰ߎᦤ⼎ ᯢᑈ؎Ꮦ䴶Јⱘ䍙乘ᳳ亢䰽⚍Џ㽕ࣙᣀߎষ໪䳔ߎ⦄䕗ᔎ࢓ᘶ໡ǃ亳કӋḐߎ⦄䕗ᯢᰒϞ ⍼ǃ༂㸠䗤ℹĀᖂ䇗āᬊ㋻䌘䞥䴶ҹঞ᠓ഄѻǃ䫊䆕⧚䋶ㄝᮍ䴶ⱘѻϮᬓㄪ䇗ᭈˈ݋ԧ䳔㾚 ᅲ䰙䖯ሩ⢊މ԰ߎ䎳䏾ᑨᇍDŽ ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� 2 � ፃเᝏअڀӤᤉሮᄊፙ࡙፞न 䋻Ꮥֵ䌋ҡᰃ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘ佪㽕Ӵࡼ࡯ Ҟᑈ㄀ 1ᄷᑺ៥೑䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䗳ेᅠ៤ㄥᑩᑊᓔྟ㓧छ䏃ᕘˈ݊ Ёֵ䌋๲䗳⬅ᑈ߱ 15%Ԣԡ छ㟇Ⳃࠡ 16%ҹϞˈM2๲䗳⬅ᑈ߱ 13%छ㟇Ⳃࠡ 14%ҹϞˈҞᑈᑈ߱ࠊ䅶ⱘᮄ๲ֵ䌋 8ϛ ғܗҹঞ M2๲䗳䖒ࠄ 14%ⱘ䋻ᏕᬓㄪⳂ᳝ᷛᳯ䍙乱ᅠ៤ˈᑊЎ៥೑㒣⌢䗤ℹㄥᑩᦤկ෎ᴀ ࡼ࡯DŽҢֵ䌋㒧ᵘᴹⳟҞᑈϞञᑈ⼼᥂㵡䌘ᅠ៤乚ܜᠽᓴৢˈ䖯ܹ㄀ 2ǃ3 ᄷᑺৢЁ䭓ᳳֵ 䌋๲䗳ᓔྟӕ〇⏤छˈᑊᇍᅲԧ㒣⌢থ᣹᳈Ⳉ᥹᥼ࡼ԰⫼DŽ ೒ 1˖䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䗳䍄࢓ M2ৠ↨๲ᐙ 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 20 08 01 20 08 05 20 08 09 20 09 01 20 09 05 20 09 09 20 10 01 20 10 05 20 10 09 20 11 01 20 11 05 20 11 09 20 12 01 20 12 05 20 12 09 Ҏ⇥Ꮥ䌋ℒৠ↨๲ᐙ ሙ⇥ټ㪘ᄬℒ๲䗳 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 2˖ϝ໻㉏ֵ䌋๲䗳䍄࢓ᇍ↨ 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 20 07 01 20 07 07 20 08 01 20 08 07 20 09 01 20 09 07 20 10 01 20 10 07 20 11 01 20 11 07 20 12 01 20 12 07 Ҏ⇥Ꮥ䌋ℒৠ↨๲ᐙ ӕϮЁ䭓ᳳֵ䌋ৠ↨๲ᐙ ⼼᥂㵡䌘ৠ↨๲ᐙ˄ে䕈˅ ሙ⇥Ё䭓ᳳֵ䌋ৠ↨๲ᐙ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 Ҟᑈֵ䌋ᠽᓴҹජଚ㸠ঞݰড়䞥㵡ᴎᵘЎܜ䫟ˈࠡ 3ᄷᑺϸ㗙ᡩᬒֵ䌋ߚ߿↨এᑈৠᳳ໮๲ 㑺 5800 ғܗ੠ 2200 ғܗˈऴ᥂ܼ䚼䞥㵡ᴎᵘড়䅵໮๲ 1.04 ϛғܗⱘ䖥ܿ៤DŽЁᇣ䞥㵡ᴎ ᵘᵘ៤Ҟᑈֵ䌋໮ᡩⱘЏ࡯ˈ᮶▔⌏ᭈԧֵ䌋ⲬᄤˈгЎᯢᑈ೑᳝໻㸠ǃ㙵ӑࠊ䫊㸠ㄝֵ䌋 ᥹࡯ᠽᓴ⬭ϟӣヨDŽ 䰸ϔ㠀ֵ䌋ҹ໪ˈҞᑈҹᴹ໪Ꮥ䌋ℒǃྨᠬ䌋ℒǃֵᠬ䌋ℒǃ䫊㸠ᡓܥ∛⼼ㄝᑓН䌋ℒ㒻㓁 থ᣹ᇍֵ䌋乱ᑺⱘĀᣒ䘫㸹㔎ā԰⫼ˈӕϮ؎ࠌথ㸠ㄝⳈ᥹㵡䌘⏴䘧гপᕫ䎼䍞ᓣথሩDŽҞ ᑈ㄀ 3ᄷᑺᓔྟ⼒Ӯ㵡䌘ᘏ䞣ߎ⦄ࡴ䗳๲䭓 ৠˈᯊϔ㠀䌋ℒऴᑓН䌋ℒҹঞᑓН䌋ℒऴ⼒Ӯ 㵡䌘ᘏ䞣ⱘ↨՟ഛ᳝䰡Ԣˈড᯴ֵ䌋ҹ໪㵡䌘⏴䘧ℷϡᮁᔎ࣪ᇍ㒣⌢থ᣹Āᄬ䞣䇗⌢āᓣ᥼ ࡼ԰⫼ˈᯢᑈ໮ܗ࣪㵡䌘⏴䘧᳝ᳯ㒻㓁ֱᣕ⌏䎗ḐሔDŽ ೒ 3˖৘㉏䞥㵡ᴎᵘ↣ᄷֵ䌋໮๲ᚙމᇍ↨ Ё䌘ܼ೑ᗻ໻ൟ䫊㸠 Ё䌘ऎඳᗻЁᇣൟ䫊㸠 Ё䌘ܼ೑ᗻᇣൟ䫊㸠 ݰᴥড়԰䞥㵡ᴎᵘ 5000 ғܗ 2500 0 -2500 -5000 20 10 Q 2 20 10 Q 3 20 10 Q 4 20 11 Q 1 20 11 Q 2 20 11 Q 3 20 11 Q 4 20 12 Q 1 20 12 Q 2 20 12 Q 3 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 4˖⼒Ӯ㵡䌘ᘏ䞣⊶ࡼঞ݊㒧ᵘߚᏗ 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 02 Q 1 02 Q 4 03 Q 3 04 Q 2 05 Q 1 05 Q 4 06 Q 3 07 Q 2 08 Q 1 08 Q 4 09 Q 3 10 Q 2 11 Q 1 11 Q 4 12 Q 3 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000 ⼒Ӯ㵡䌘ᘏ䞣ৠ↨๲ޣ˄ে䕈˖ғܗ˅ ϔ㠀䌋ℒऴᑓН䌋ℒ↨՟ ᑓН䌋ℒऴ⼒Ӯ㵡䌘ᘏ䞣↨՟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� 3 � ⬅ֵ䌋ࠄ೎ᅮᡩ䌘ঞὐᏖⱘݙ䳔ᠽᓴ ֵ䌋ᇸ݊ᰃӕϮЁ䭓ᳳֵ䌋๲䗳䗤ℹ㾺ᑩಲछᇍᬍ୘೎ᅮᡩ䌘䌘䞥ᴹ⑤݋᳝䞡㽕ᕅડDŽҢҞ ᑈ㄀ 2ᄷᑺᓔྟˈ೎ᅮᡩ䌘䌘䞥ᴹ⑤๲䗳᥶ᑩಲछᑊ䗤ℹ߯ߎᑈݙᮄ催ˈᏺࡼ೎ᅮᡩ䌘๲䗳 г೼㄀ 2ᄷᑺ㾺ᑩ㓧छˈᑊᇍᅣ㾖㒣⌢䍋ࠄ䞡㽕ᓩ᪢԰⫼DŽ ೼Ҟᑈ៥೑೎ᅮᡩ䌘ㄥᑩ䖛⿟Ёˈ෎⸔䆒ᮑ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳ᣕ㓁ᯢᰒಲछˈ݊೼ϞञᑈЏ㽕ᇍ ކњ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ᖿ䗳ϟ⒥ⱘᕅડ ˈࠄϟञᑈ᠓ഄѻᡩ䌘๲䗳ӕ〇ৢজ㒻㓁ᇍކࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ 䌘๲䗳ಲ㨑DŽ⬅ѢҞᑈ෎⸔䆒ᮑ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳ᘏԧҡ໘Ѣ 15%ҹݙⱘᘶ໡ᗻ๲䭓ऎඳˈᯢᑈ ᅠ៤ᬓᑰᤶሞৢҡ᳝ϔᅮᬓㄪᢝࡼぎ䯈 ᇍˈᭈԧ೎ᅮᡩ䌘г᳝ᳯ㒻㓁䍋ࠄĀֱ偒ᡸ㟾ā԰⫼DŽ ೒ 5˖⬅ֵ䌋๲䭓ࠄᡩ䌘๲䭓ⱘӴᇐ ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘㌃䅵ৠ↨๲䗳 ӕϮЁ䭓ᳳ䌋ℒৠ↨๲䗳 Ҏ⇥Ꮥֵ䌋๲䗳 ᡩ䌘䌘䞥ᴹ⑤Ё೑ݙ䌋ℒৠ↨๲䗳 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20 04 03 20 05 01 20 05 11 20 06 09 20 07 07 20 08 05 20 09 03 20 10 01 20 10 11 20 11 09 20 12 07 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ଚࡵ䚼㔥キˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 6˖ϝ໻㉏೎ᅮᡩ䌘๲䗳ᇍ↨ 20 04 02 20 04 08 20 05 03 20 05 09 20 06 04 20 06 10 20 07 05 20 07 11 20 08 06 20 08 12 20 09 07 20 10 02 20 10 08 20 11 03 20 11 09 20 12 04 ೎ᅮᡩ䌘㌃䅵๲䗳 ࠊ䗴Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳 ෎⸔䆒ᮑ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘๲䗳 ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘๲䗳 60% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ሙ⇥Ё䭓ᳳֵ䌋ҢҞᑈ㄀3ᄷᑺᓔྟ㓧ℹಲछ Ԉˈ䱣ᔧᄷଚક᠓᳜ᑺ䫔ଂ䴶⿃๲䗳⬅䋳䕀ℷˈ ҹঞᔧᑈଚક᠓㌃䅵䫔ଂ乱๲䗳Ң 8᳜ӑ⬅䋳䕀ℷDŽὐᏖ䫔ଂ䕀དҹঞᓔথଚ䌘䞥य़࡯ϟ䰡 Փᕫ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘๲䗳Ꮖ䗤ℹᡁ䕀ϟ㸠ᗕ࢓DŽ ೼Āञ䇗᥻ǃञᬒᵒāᬓㄪ⢊ᗕϟᯢᑈὐᏖৃ㛑ֱᣕϡ⏽ϡ☿ᗕ࢓ˈⳌᑨ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘ৃ 㛑↨Ҟᑈ⿡䍟⌏䎗ˈ᠓ഄѻϞǃϟ␌ѻϮ䫒ᇍᅣ㾖㒣⌢ⱘᢝࡼ԰⫼гᑨᔎѢҞᑈDŽ ೒ 7˖⬅ֵ䌋๲䭓ࠄὐᏖ䫔ଂⱘӴᇐ 20 05 02 20 05 10 20 06 07 20 07 04 20 07 12 20 08 09 20 09 06 20 10 03 20 10 11 20 11 08 20 12 05 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% ଚક᠓䫔ଂ䴶⿃ᔧ᳜๲䗳 ଚક᠓䫔ଂ䴶⿃㌃䅵๲䗳 ሙ⇥Ё䭓ᳳ䌋ℒ๲䗳 䌁᠓䌋ℒ๲䗳 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ଚࡵ䚼㔥キˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 8˖⬅ὐᏖ䫔ଂࠄ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘ⱘӴᇐ 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 20 01 02 20 01 10 20 02 07 20 03 04 20 03 12 20 04 09 20 05 06 20 06 03 20 06 11 20 07 08 20 08 05 20 09 02 20 09 10 20 10 07 20 11 04 20 11 12 20 12 09 ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘㌃䅵๲䗳 ᠓ഄѻᓔথӕϮᴀᑈ䌘䞥ᴹ⑤㌃䅵๲䗳 ᠓ሟᮄᓔᎹ䴶⿃㌃䅵๲䗳 ଚક᠓䫔ଂ乱㌃䅵๲䗳 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ߎষᇍ㒣⌢䋵⤂䰡Ԣঞ݊๲䗳䍟〇 ߎষ๲䗳ᣕ㓁ಲ㨑ᵘ៤Ҟᑈ៥೑㒣⌢Џ㽕ϟ㸠य़࡯᠔೼DŽԚ㒣ग़њ 2009 ᑈߎষ࠻ޣ੠ᡩ䌘 ⟚থᓣ๲䭓Пৢˈ໪䳔ᇍ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘ䋵⤂ᑺᏆᰒ㨫䰡Ԣˈড᯴Ў䖥ᑈᴹߎষⳌᇍѢ೎ᅮ ᡩ䌘੠೑ݙ⍜䌍ᘏ੠ⱘ↨՟ߎ⦄ᰒ㨫ಲ㨑DŽҞᑈߎষ๲䗳ԢѢᡩ䌘੠⍜䌍๲䗳ҹঞҎ⇥Ꮥ㒻 㓁ᇣᐙछؐㄝ䗴៤ҹϞ໪ǃݙ䳔↨՟㒻㓁ϟ䰡ˈߎষ⊶ࡼᇍ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘᕅડ࡯ℷᣕ㓁䰡 ԢˈЁ೑㒣⌢᮹Ⲟಲ໡㟇ݙ䳔ЏᇐḐሔDŽ ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� 4 � Ңᇍߎষ݋᳝ϔᅮ乚ܜᛣНⱘࡴᎹ䌌ᯧ䖯ষᴹⳟ ҢˈҞᑈ㄀ 2ᄷᑺᓔྟ݊๲䗳೼䳊ؐ䰘䖥Ԣ ԡ䳛㤵㗠᳾ߎ⦄䖯ϔℹᙊ࣪ˈ䱣Пߎষ๲䗳г೼㄀ 3 ᄷᑺᔶ៤㾺ᑩ㸼⦄DŽ೼㕢೑᥼ߎ QE3 ҹঞ⃻؎ॅᴎপᕫϔᅮ੠㓧䖯ሩⱘ㚠᱃ϟ 乘ˈ䅵ᯢᑈߎষ๲䗳᳝ᳯᓊ㓁Ҟᑈ㄀ 4ᄷᑺ⏽੠ᬍ ୘࢓༈ˈेᑨϡԢѢҞᑈܼᑈߎষ๲䗳DŽ ೒ 9˖ग़ᑈᴹ៥೑ݙ໪䳔㒧ᵘবࡼ ܼ⼒Ӯ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘㌃䅵ᅠ៤乱˄ғܗ˅ ⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂ㌃䅵ᘏ乱˄ғܗ˅ ㌃䅵ߎষ䞥乱˄Ҏ⇥Ꮥ˖ғܗ˅ ߎষ�˷೎ᅮᡩ䌘�⍜䌍ક䳊ଂ˹˄ে䕈˅ 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 20 00 ᑈ 20 01 ᑈ 20 02 ᑈ 20 03 ᑈ 20 04 ᑈ 20 05 ᑈ 20 06 ᑈ 20 07 ᑈ 20 08 ᑈ 20 09 ᑈ 20 10 ᑈ 20 11 ᑈ Ҟ ᑈ ࠡ 3ᄷ 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ଚࡵ䚼㔥キˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 10˖ࡴᎹ䌌ᯧ䖯ষᇍߎষⱘ乚ܜ䍄࢓ ࡴᎹ䌌ᯧ䖯ষᔧ᳜๲䗳 ϔ㠀䌌ᯧߎষᔧ᳜๲䗳 ࡴᎹ䌌ᯧߎষᔧ᳜๲䗳 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 20 04 03 20 04 08 20 05 03 20 05 08 20 06 03 20 06 08 20 07 03 20 07 08 20 08 03 20 08 08 20 09 03 20 09 08 20 10 03 20 10 08 20 11 03 20 11 08 20 12 03 20 12 08 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⠽Ӌ⊶ࡼ݋᳝ϔᅮϞछࡼ࡯ Ҟᑈࠡ 10᳜ CPI᳜ഛ⦃↨⍼ᐙЎ 0.18%ˈ⬹ԢѢ䖥ᑈᴹৠᳳ᳜ഛ⍼ᐙ 0.21%ˈ⦃↨䍟࢓Ϟᘏ ԧ᥹䖥Ёᗻ⊶ࡼ⢊ᗕˈҞᑈ 12᳜ CPIৠ↨⍼ᐙ᳝ᳯԡѢ 2.5%Ꮊেˈ㱑Ԣߎ䖥ᑈᴹഛؐ∈ᑇ 3.0%ˈԚᘏԧϡ݋䗮㓽䍟࢓DŽ೼Ҟᑈ CPI ৠ↨⍼ᐙಲ㨑䖛⿟Ёˈ᳔Џ㽕䋵⤂ᴹ⑤Ѣ亳કӋḐ ⍼ᐙᣕ㓁ϟ䰡ˈ䴲亳કӋḐ⍼ᐙ߭Ң㄀ 3ᄷᑺᓔྟᏆᇣᐙডᔍDŽ ೒ 11˖CPI⦃↨⊶ࡼঞ݊Ϣग़৆ഛؐᇍ↨ 2012ᑈCPI⦃↨⍼ᐙ 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00% -0.25% -0.50% -0.75% 1᳜ 2᳜ 3᳜ 4᳜ 5᳜ 6᳜ 7᳜ 8᳜ 9᳜ 10 ᳜ 11 ᳜ 12 ᳜ 2011ᑈCPI⦃↨⍼ᐙ 2003㟇2010ᑈCPI⦃↨⍼ᐙഛؐ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 12˖CPIǃ亳કঞ䴲亳કӋḐৠ↨⍼ᐙ䍄࢓ CPIৠ↨⍼ᐙ 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 20 02 01 20 02 08 20 03 03 20 03 10 20 04 05 20 04 12 20 05 07 20 06 02 20 06 09 20 07 04 20 07 11 20 08 06 20 09 01 20 09 08 20 10 03 20 10 10 20 11 05 20 11 12 20 12 07 䴲亳કӋḐৠ↨⍼ᐙ 亳કӋḐৠ↨⍼ᐙ˄ে䕈˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೼ᯢᑈ䋻Ꮥֵ䌋๲䭓ϡ݋ݙ⫳⫊乜ˈᡩ䌘ㄝݙ䳔㒻㓁݋᳝ᬃᩥˈҹঞ໪䳔↨Ҟᑈ⿡᳝ᬍ㾖㚠 ᱃ϟˈᯢᑈ៥೑ GDP ๲䗳᳝ᳯԡѢ 8.0%៪⿡催∈ᑇDŽ㒣⌢๲䗳⏽੠ಲछгᇚ᥼ࡼ䗮㚔∈ᑇ ⬅Ҟᑈ᥹䖥Ёᗻ∈ᑇথ⫳Ϟ⿏ˈৠᯊᯢᑈ亳કӋḐ᳝ৃ㛑䴶Јϔᅮᘶ໡ᗻϞ⍼ࡼ࡯ˈ乘䅵ᯢ ᑈᑈᑩ CPIৠ↨⍼ᐙৃ㛑ԡѢ 2.5%-3.0%ˈг↨Ҟᑈ⍼ᐙ᳝᠔ᦤछDŽ ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� 5 � ᠎ࣉ஋ኖႀᣁՔ҂ງӑᣁی ៥೑䋻ᏕᬓㄪⳌᇍ໪䚼ⱘ⣀ゟᗻ᮹Ⲟᦤछ 䱣Ё೑㒣⌢ࡴ䗳㵡ܹܼ⧗㒣⌢ˈ䖥ᑈᴹ៥೑䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ੠ܼ⧗䋻Ꮥᬓㄪгࡴᔎ㘨ࡼˈԧ⦄೼ᴀ Ϫ㑾ҹᴹ㕢೑Ң䰡ᙃࠄࡴᙃݡࠄ䰡ᙃⱘϔᭈ䕂䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ਼ᳳഛ乚ܜѢ៥೑೼ 2002 ᑈⱘ䰡ᙃ ሒໄǃ೼ 2004ᑈᓔྟⳈࠄ 2006ᑈ⹂ゟⱘछᙃ਼ᳳҹঞ೼ 2008ᑈݡ⃵ਃࡼⱘ䰡ᙃ਼ᳳDŽ 2009ᑈҹᴹ㕢㘨ټ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪྟ㒜໘Ѣ䳊߽⥛⢊ᗕˈᑊ᥹䖲᥼ߎ QE㋏߫ࠎ▔ᬓㄪDŽ㗠៥೑Ң 2010ᑈ 10᳜ӑᓔྟĀ⣀㞾āਃࡼᮄϔ䕂ࡴᙃ਼ᳳˈⳈ㟇Ҟᑈ 6᳜ӑݡĀ⣀㞾ā䕀ᡬ䖯ܹ䰡 ᙃ਼ᳳDŽᴀ䕂៥೑䋻ᏕᬓㄪҢࡴᙃࠄ䰡ᙃ਼ᳳⳌᇍ໪䚼ⱘ⣀ゟᗻপᕫᯢ⹂ᦤछˈড᯴ߎЁ೑ 㒣⌢᮹Ⲟಲᔦݙ䳔ЏᇐḐሔˈҹঞЁǃ㕢ϸ೑೼ܼ⧗㒣⌢ЁⱘĀঠᵕāഄԡ᮹⏤ᰒ⦄DŽ ៥೑䋻ᏕᬓㄪⳌᇍ໪䚼ⱘ⣀ゟᗻᦤछгՓ៥೑؎ࠌᏖഎ߽⥛Ϣ೑䰙؎Ꮦ߽⥛Ꮒᓖᠽ໻DŽབএ ᑈҹᴹ㱑✊Ёǃ㕢ϸ೑ 10 ᑈᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛⊶ࡼҡֱᣕϔᅮৠ৥ᗻˈԚϸ㗙䯈߽ᏂᏆᯢᰒ ᠽሩDŽ ೒ 13˖Ё೑ᅮᄬ߽⥛ঞ R007Ϣ㕢㘨ټ߽⥛ᇍ↨ 㕢೑㘨䙺෎䞥߽⥛ Ё೑R007 Ё೑1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛ 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 20 01 12 20 02 07 20 03 02 20 03 09 20 04 04 20 04 11 20 05 06 20 06 01 20 06 08 20 07 03 20 07 10 20 08 05 20 08 12 20 09 07 20 10 02 20 10 09 20 11 04 20 11 11 20 12 06 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 14˖Ёǃ㕢ϸ೑ 10ᑈᳳ೑؎߽⥛ᇍ↨ 6% 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 20 01 12 20 02 07 20 03 02 20 03 09 2 0 04 0 4 20 04 11 20 05 06 20 06 04 20 06 08 20 07 03 20 07 10 20 08 05 20 08 12 20 09 07 20 10 02 20 10 09 20 11 04 20 11 11 20 12 06 Ё㕢10ᑈᳳ೑؎П䯈߽Ꮒ˄ে䕈˖BP˅ 㕢೑10ᑈᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛ഛؐ Ё೑10ᑈᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛ഛؐ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ⱘЁᖗ߽⥛ഄԡ䗤ℹᓎゟ Ҟᑈ 6ǃ7 ᳜ӑϸ⃵䰡ᙃԈ䱣ᄬℒ߽⥛Ϟ⍂ऎ䯈ᠧᓔҹঞ䌋ℒ߽⥛ϟ⍂ऎ䯈ᠽሩˈ೼䋻Ꮥᬓ ㄪ䕀৥ⱘৠᯊ߽⥛Ꮦഎ࣪䖯⿟гᯢᰒࡴᖿDŽᄬ䌋ℒ߽⥛ࡴ䗳Ꮦഎ࣪ᴀ䑿гᛣੇⴔ݊ĀᎹ݋ā ⡍ᗻϡᮁ䰡Ԣˈ಴ℸ䋻ᏕᬓㄪᎹ݋ԧ㋏г䴶Јᮄⱘ䕀ᤶDŽ এᑈࡴᙃ਼ᳳЁᄬ䌋ℒ෎ޚ߽⥛Ϟछࠄ䖥 10 ᑈᴹЁ催∈ᑇˈԚ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛߯ߎᮄ催ˈৠ ᯊ䌘䞥߽⥛ᇍᏖഎ࣪ᄬǃ䌋ℒ߽⥛থ⫳᳈さߎᕅડˈ㸼⦄೼ण䆂ᄬℒ߽⥛ǃ೑ᑧ⦄䞥ᅮᳳᄬ ℒ߽⥛ǃϔ㠀䌋ℒᑇഛ߽⥛ㄝ೼䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛᥼ࡼϟˈ݊ᅲ䰙छᐙഛᯢᰒ䍙ߎᄬ䌋ℒ෎ޚ߽ ⥛ϞछᐙᑺDŽҞᑈҹᴹ䱣䌘䞥߽⥛ᯢᰒಲ㨑ˈҹϞᏖഎ࣪ᄬǃ䌋ℒ߽⥛ಲ㨑ᐙᑺг䍙ߎϸ⃵ 䰡ᙃᐙᑺDŽ೼䌘䞥߽⥛ᔍᗻࡴ໻ǃᏖഎ߽࣪⥛ԧ㋏Ӵᇐࡴᖿҹঞᄬ䌋ℒ߽⥛Ꮦഎ࣪ࡴ䗳䖯⿟ Ёˈ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛೼៥೑߽⥛ԧ㋏ЁⱘЁᖗഄԡℷϡᮁ๲ᔎˈ݊䋻ᏕᬓㄪᎹ݋ᛣНгᇚᕫࠄ ϡᮁᦤछDŽ ؎ࠌᏖഎ 2013ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ� 6 � ೒ 15˖䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛Ϣ೑ᑧ⦄䞥ᅮᄬ߽⥛ᇍ↨ 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% ೑ᑧ⦄䞥ᅮᄬ߽⥛ 1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛ R007 20 06 12 20 07 05 20 07 10 20 08 03 20 08 08 20 09 01 20 09 06 20 09 11 20 10 04 20 10 09 20 11 02 20 11 07 20 11 12 20 12 05 20 12 10 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 16˖䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛Ϣ෎ޚঞᑇഛ䌋ℒ߽⥛ᇍ↨ 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1ᑈᳳ䌋ℒ߽⥛ ϔ㠀䌋ℒࡴᴗᑇഛ߽⥛ R007 20 06 12 20 07 05 20 07 10 20 08 03 20 08 08 20 09 01 20 09 06 20 09 11 20 10 04 20 10 09 20 11 02 20 11 07 20 11 12 20 12 05 20 12 10 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ໪⫳ᗻ⌕ࡼᗻ䖛࠽⢊މⱘᡁ䕀ҹঞ䌘䞥߽⥛ᑩ䚼ᢀछ ҹᕔ↣᳜໻䞣໪∛ऴℒ⌕ܹҹঞ༂⼼⒮ࡼࠄᳳՓ䫊㸠㋏㒳ྟ㒜໘Ѣ⌕ࡼᗻ䖛࠽⢊ᗕ ᑊˈ䗮䖛 ༂㸠থ㸠༂⼼З㟇Ϟ䇗ޚ໛䞥⥛ᴹќҹᇍކDŽএᑈ㄀ 4ᄷᑺҹᴹ䱣໪∛ऴℒ੠༂⼼ࠄᳳ㾘῵ ϡᮁ䰡Ԣˈॳ᳝⌕ࡼᗻ䖛࠽⢊މথ⫳䗚䕀ˈࠄҞᑈϟञᑈ໪∛ऴℒ෎ᴀ䳊๲䭓ঞ໻䞣䗚ಲ䌁 ⒮ࡼࠄᳳᏆՓ䫊㸠ԧ㋏⌕ࡼᗻྟ㒜໘Ѣ㋻㔎⢊ᗕˈᑊձ䌪༂㸠↣਼㓁خ䗚ಲ䌁ⱘ⊼䌘㸠ЎDŽ ⌕ࡼᗻ䖛࠽⢊މ䗚䕀Փ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛Ёᵶ∈ᑇ䍟৥ᢀछˈԧ⦄Ў R007 Ϣ 1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛П 䯈߽Ꮒ䞡ᮄᘶ໡㟇 2004ᑈПࠡ෎ᴀЎℷؐⱘग़৆ᐌᗕDŽ ೒ 17˖৘᳜໪∛ऴℒঞ݀ᓔᏖഎࠄᳳ䌘䞥বࡼ 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000 -10000 -15000 ғܗ ᔧ᳜䗚ಲ䌁ࠄᳳ䞥乱 ᔧ᳜༂⼼ঞℷಲ䌁ࠄᳳ䞥乱 ᔧ᳜ᮄ๲໪∛ऴℒ䞥乱 ໪∛ऴℒ੠ࠄᳳ䌘䞥ড়䅵3᳜⿏ࡼᑇഛ 20 07 01 20 07 06 20 07 11 20 08 04 20 08 09 20 09 02 20 09 07 20 09 12 20 10 05 20 10 10 20 11 03 20 11 08 20 12 01 20 12 06 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 18˖R007Ϣ 1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛ᇍ↨ 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% R007Ϣ1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛П䯈߽Ꮒ㋏߫1˄ে䕈;BP˅ R007Ϣ1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛П䯈߽Ꮒ㋏߫2˄ে䕈;BP˅ R007 1ᑈᳳᅮᄬ߽⥛ 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 19 99 02 19 99 11 20 00 08 20 01 05 20 02 02 20 02 11 20 03 08 20 04 05 20 05 02 20 05 11 20 06 08 20 07 05 20 08 02 20 08 11 20 09 08 20 10 05 20 11 02 20 11 11 20 12 08 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind䌘䆃ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ༂㸠ᇍ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ⱘᥠ᥻࡯䖯ϔℹ๲ࡴ ໪䚼䌘䞥⌕৥ব࣪ᇐ㟈༂㸠᪡԰ᮍ৥䕀ᤶ ॳˈ᳝ಲᬊ⌕ࡼᗻᯊ᠔䞛⫼༂⼼থ㸠ঞℷಲ䌁᪡԰ ߽⥛ᇍᏖഎ䌘䞥߽⥛݋᳝ϟ䰤ᣛᓩ԰⫼ ⦄ˈ᳝ᡩᬒ⌕ࡼᗻᯊᣕ㓁䗚ಲ䌁᪡԰߽⥛߭ᇍᏖഎ䌘 䞥߽⥛߭݋᳝Ϟ䰤ᣛᓩ԰⫼ˈҞᑈҹᴹ 3.50%Ꮊেⱘ䗚ಲ䌁᪡԰߽⥛ᵘ៤༂㸠ড়ᛣⱘ䌘䞥߽ ⥛⊶ࡼϞ䔼DŽ 䱣༂㸠⬅⌕ࡼᗻĀಲᬊキāᘶ໡៤Ў⌕ࡼᗻ⑤༈ˈ䫊㸠㋏㒳䌘䞥⢊މᇍ༂㸠↣਼䗚ಲ䌁᪡԰ гᔶ៤߮ᗻձ䌪ˈ⬅ℸ༂㸠೼݀ᓔᏖഎ᪡԰ЁⱘЏࡼᗻഄԡᯢᰒᬍ୘ˈ݀ᓔᏖഎ᪡԰ᇍᏖഎ ⌕ࡼᗻⱘ䖍䰙ᕅડ࡯г䖯ϔℹᦤ催DŽ༂㸠ᥠ᥻࡯ϞछՓᕫҞᑈ㄀ 2ᄷᑺҹᴹ䋻ᏕᏖഎ߽⥛ⱘ ⊶ࡼ⥛෎ᴀ㓈ᣕ೼ग़৆ഛؐ៪᳈Ԣ∈ᑇDŽ