摆脱资源依赖（英）

Outgrowing Resource Dependence Theory and Some Recent Developments by Will Martin Development Research Group World Bank Abstract Many policy makers are concerned about dependence on resource exports. This paper examines four changes that reduce this dependence: (i) accumulation of capital and skills; (ii) changes in protection policy, particularly reductions in the burden of protection on exporters; (iii) differential rates of technical change; and (iv) declines in transport costs. Developing countries as a group have made enormous progress in diversifying their exports away from resources in recent decades, a development that appears to have been aided by accumulation of capital and skills and by dramatic reductions in the cost of protection to exporters, but slowed down by technological advances that favored agriculture. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3482, January 2005 The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org. Outgrowing Resource Dependence: Theory and Some Recent Developments Non-Technical Summary Policy makers in many developing countries are concerned about continuing dependence on exports of resource-based products. Concerns about such dependence arise from a number of factors including concerns about: adverse trends in the terms of trade for commodities; the perceived volatility in their prices; the possibility of lower rates of productivity growth in resource production; and incentives for rent-seeking. Frequently, this concern manifests itself in policy approaches that are either ineffective in reducing resource dependence, or unhelpful to economic development. Approaches that are likely to be ineffective include exhortations to the private sector to diversify their export mix. Proposals that are likely to be unhelpful include the provision of protection to import-competing industries. The first part of the paper identifies policies that can both contribute to economic development and to reduction in resource dependence. These include: (i) accumulation of capital and skills; (ii) changes in protection policy, particularly reductions in the burden of protection on exporters; (iii) differential rates of technical change; and (iv) declines in transport costs. Then, the paper examines recent changes in developing country policies, and their environment, and export outcomes. There has been a dramatic change in the composition of developing country exports since the mid-1960s. The share of manufactures in has risen from around 15 percent to over 80 percent, with a corresponding reduction in the importance of agricultural and mineral resource-based products. This is shown to reflect changes in the volumes of exports, rather than changes in relative prices. Possible contributors to this development are identified as higher rates of accumulation of physical capital in many developing countries than in the industrial countries; and higher rates of growth in education per worker in all developing regions. Another fundamental change that appears likely to have contributed to this transformation is the dramatic reduction in developing-country trade barriers. Tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and exchange rate overvaluation have all been reduced dramatically. This has greatly reduced the burden imposed by protection on export-oriented manufactures. The role of technological change is less clear. The evidence suggests that, if anything, technical change has been more rapid in agriculture than in manufactures, a factor that would be expected to retard reductions in dependence on agricultural exports. Clearly, however, reductions in transport costs have contributed to the development of global production sharing models that have increased developing countries’ ability to participate in manufactures trade. Outgrowing Resource Dependence: Theory and Some Recent Developments Countries vary greatly in the share of their exports derived from resource-based activities. In those countries that obtain a large share of their export revenues from resource-based activities, a goal of reducing resource dependence is frequently a major influence on policy. The importance placed on this goal is particularly marked in resource-dependent developing countries, but has also emerged in high-income countries such as the Netherlands and Australia in the form of concerns about de-industrialization during periods of growth in resource-based industries (Gregory 1976; Snape 1977). There are many reasons why policy makers may wish to reduce the share of a country’s export revenues obtained from commodities produced using resource-intensive procedures. These include: (i) the concerns about potentially adverse trends in the terms of trade for commodities raised by Prebisch, (ii) concerns about the perceived instability of returns from commodities and possible resulting problems of unemployment and output loss (Cashin and McDermott 2002), (iii) perceptions that the rate of technological change in resource-dependent activities may be lower than in manufactures or services, and (iv) concerns that resource-intensive production may promote rent-seeking activities, lower growth rates, and increase the risk of civil war (Sachs and Warner 1995, Collier 2000). Clearly, given the potential stakes involved with decisions about changing resource dependence, and the fundamental nature of many of the policies advocated for achieving this objective, there is a great need for carefully formulated policies if this objective is to be achieved. Unfortunately, much of the policy debate surrounding these objectives takes place at a sufficiently high level of abstraction that it does not provide much guidance. Consequently, many of the policies adopted to this end seem ad hoc and potentially counter-productive. A very common response, for example, is a relatively arbitrary set of protectionist measures designed, perhaps, to promote activity and learning in manufacturing sectors. But, as we shall see, protectionist policies may have quite 2 contrary effects. In fact, it seems likely that liberalization is key to increasing diversification and not, as many have feared (eg Parris 2003), to continuing dependence. The choice of policy options for dealing with this problem also needs to be based on good diagnostics, and to take a broad view of the policy options. It is possible, for instance, that a country relying on a set of different commodities may find that the variance of returns from the resulting portfolio is not excessive—or that shifting from commodities to manufactures would not reduce the variance of returns (see Martin 1988 for example). Further, if excessive instability of export returns is identified as a problem, then the most effective solution may lie in portfolio management approaches that allow reductions in the volatility of consumption without attempting to reduce the volatility of annual earnings. Such a solution is consistent with the general principle in economic policy of targeting the policy solution as closely as possible to the problem at hand. Policies that attempt to deal with the risks associated with commodity dependence by diversifying the structure of output should not generally be undertaken unless analysis indicates that: (i) there are market failures that are reducing the extent to which the production structure should shift away from commodities, and that (ii) policy options are available that will diversify output and improve overall economic performance. While these criteria might appear daunting, there are many cases where they will be fulfilled. Potential causes of resource dependence in the structure of output and exports include: (i) unusually large endowments of natural resources; (ii) limited supplies of factors such as capital and human capital that are used more intensively in manufactures and services than in resource-based industries; (iii) low productivity in manufactures and services; (iv) trade and pricing policies that discriminate against export-oriented manufactures and services; and (v) high transport and communication costs. Since countries would not generally wish to reduce their endowments of natural resources1, the policy solutions to what is regarded as an “excessive” level of dependence on natural resources are likely to lie in the four areas (ii) to (v). 1 Although they may wish to consider the timing of exploitation of non-renewable resources. 3 These four influences on resource dependence are clearly strongly related to the basic determinants of structural change identified in the classic Chenery, Robinson and Syrquin (1986) study of industrialization and structural change. One other influence on the structure of output, and of exports, identified by Chenery, Robinson and Syrquin is non-homotheticity of consumer demand, although this is difficult to use this for policy purposes. Low income elasticities of demand may, in fact, cause a country undergoing unbiased growth to become more reliant on exports of commodities. A wide range of policies designed to promote the development of favored sectors have been discussed under the rubric of industrial policy (see Pack 2000 and Stiglitz 1996). Industrial policies have included many specific policies, such as provision of infrastructure, support for education; export promotion activities; technology promotion programs; duty exemption and drawback arrangements for exporters; and preferential allocation of credit to exporting industries. All of these policies can be seen ultimately as affecting the level and structure of output through one of the four channels considered in this paper. The process of developing growth models that go beyond balanced growth is only now getting under way (see, for example, Kongsamut, Rebelo and Danyang Xie 2001). Specifying model features in a way that will allow them to be useful in analyzing the profound structural changes associated with reducing resource dependence seems likely to require more sources of structural change than are included in most current growth models. As noted in World Bank (2003), and in Martin (2003), there have been dramatic changes in the participation of developing countries in world trade. The share of manufactures in total merchandise exports has increased dramatically, at the expense of the traditional stalwarts—agricultural products and minerals. This change has been associated with dramatic shifts in policy toward trade openness, and with increases in factor endowments, that raise the available capital and skills per worker. 4 In this paper, a simple general equilibrium framework sufficiently general to incorporate the structural changes associated with reductions in resource dependence is specified. It is then used as an organizing framework to examine some data on changes in export patterns of developing countries and indicators of the influences on resource dependence identified in the conceptual framework. This analysis is then followed by consideration of policies that might be used to reduce resource dependence. A Framework For this paper, we need a formulation sufficiently general that it can encompass changes in factor endowments, changes in technology, and changes in price policies. The dual approach popularized by Dixit and Norman (1980) provides this flexibility. The production side of the economy can be represented using a restricted profit function specifying the value of net output in the economy as a function of the domestic prices of outputs and intermediate inputs: (1) π = π( p , v) = maxx {p.x (x, v) feasible} where π is the value-added accruing to the vector of quasi-fixed factors ,v, in the economy given the vector of domestic prices, p, for gross outputs of the vector of produced goods, x. The vector v includes economy-wide stocks of mobile factors, any sector-specific factor inputs, and public goods such as infrastructure, that may not be readily allocable to particular sectors. As Dixit and Norman (1980) note, the specification in equation (1) represents all of the properties of the production technology. It is extremely general, being able to represent many different types of technology depending upon the particular functional form used to specify the GDP function. These specifications may include the familiar 2*2 Heckscher-Ohlin model with two factors and two outputs, and no intermediate inputs, through a range of specifications of much greater generality. It may also include specifications such as the Leamer (1987) model in which there are more goods than factors, and small, open economies move between different cones of diversification in 5 which the set of commodities produced change. The specification is also sufficiently general to include forward and backward linkages induced by input-output linkages and transport costs. Over the range where the profit function is differentiable, its derivatives with respect to the prices of output yield a vector of net output supplies: (2) πp = πp(p,v) Depending upon the specification of the profit function, it may be possible to identify the gross outputs of each good, and the quantities of these goods used as intermediate inputs in production. For some purposes, such as estimating the incentives created by a protection structure, it is very important to be able to identify the net outputs. The derivative of the profit function with respect to the factor endowments gives the vector of factor prices. πv(p, v) One additional important expression is the matrix of Rybczynski derivatives. Differentiating the vector of price derivatives, πp , by the vector of resource endowments (or, equivalently by Young’s theorem, differentiating the vector of factor prices by the price vector) yields a matrix, πpv , of changes in the net output vector resulting from changes in factor endowments. This matrix is clearly critical for our analysis, but its exact structure depends heavily upon the particular situation. In the simple, two factor, two output model used in textbook treatments, the Rybczynski responses take a very clearly-defined form in any economy that is producing both outputs. As the supply of one factor increases, the output of the sector in which that factor is used intensively increases. The output of the other good declines, despite the increase in the total resources available to the economy. Importantly, factor prices do not change. The required change factor use is achieved by changing the mix of outputs, rather 6 than by changing factor prices. As long as the number of factors and the number of outputs remains the same, this mechanism can be generalized to economies in which there are multiple factors and multiple outputs. The concept of relative factor intensity can be generalized to indicate the increase in the cost of producing a good when the price of a factor increases (Dixit and Norman 1980, p57). The most difficult case to analyze is the realistic situation in which there are more goods than factors. Leamer (1987) and Leamer, Maul, Rodriguez and Schott (1999) provide an extremely useful analytical framework for analyzing this problem where there are three factors and many goods. In simple cases2, countries with three factors will specialize in the production of three goods. Over some range, the features of the Rybczynski theorem will hold and changes in factor endowments will result in changes in the mix of output without changes in factor prices. However, changes beyond that point will result in shifts into a new cone of diversification, with a change in the mix of output and a fall in the return to the factor whose relative supply is being augmented. As Leamer (1987, p967) points out the location of these cones of diversification depends upon commodity prices, and hence is not merely a function of technology. In the case of resource-poor economies, Leamer et al show that the adjustment path associated with accumulation of human and physical capital is likely to be relatively smooth, with increases in the supply of capital raising the demand for raw labor as the economy moves through different cones of diversification. For resource-abundant economies, however, the path may involve reductions in unskilled labor as the economy moves from, say, peasant farming to resource-based systems involving greater use of capital. This move may be associated with reductions in the returns to unskilled labor that increase income inequality. For some problems, such as situations where some goods are nontraded, we need to consider the consumption side of the economy as well as the production side. The 2 In the absence, for instance, of nontraded goods. 7 consumption side of the economy can be represented similarly using an expenditure function: (3) e(p, u) where e represents the expenditure required to achieve a specified level of utility, u, and represents all of the economically relevant features of consumer preferences. Assuming differentiability of the expenditure function, the vector of consumer demands can be obtained as: (4) ep(p, u) An important feature of real-world consumer preferences is their non- homotheticity, with commodities like basic food having small or negative responses to income increases, while luxury goods have large positive income effects. The vector of Marshallian income effects can be derived from (4) as: cY = (epu/eu) where eu is the marginal impact of a change in utility on expenditure, and epu is the marginal impact of a change in utility on the consumption of each good. The vector of net imports of commodities is given by m, which is the difference between the vector of consumption and the vector of net outputs: m = ep - rp World prices of traded goods are determined by the market clearing condition that the sum of the net trade vectors for all regions must equal zero. Where some goods are non-traded, the relevant sub-vector of m is exogenously equal to zero and equilibrium in the market for these goods is achieved by adjustments in the prices of these goods. Similarly, where trade in some goods is determined by binding quotas, the relevant sub- vector of m is set exogenously at the quota level and equilibrium is achieved by endogenous determination of these prices. Trade policy distortions are represented very simply as creating a difference between the vector of domestic prices, p, and world prices, pw for the small representative 8 economy. It is frequently useful to define a net expenditure function z = (e –r ). The derivative of this function with respect to prices, zp = (ep – rp ) is also equal to the vector of net imports. This function also provide