7 Causes of inflation 08

null货币增长和通货膨胀货币增长和通货膨胀主要： 货币市场均衡 货币的供给曲线和货币需求曲线 货币数量理论 货币中性理论 央行三度上调准备金率 货币政策向常态化回归 央行三度上调准备金率 货币政策向常态化回归 新华网北京2010年5月2日 中国人民银行2日宣布，决定自10日起上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点，农村信用社、村镇银行暂不上调。 　　存款准备金率是传统的三大货币政策工具之一，通常是指中央银行强制要求商业银行按照存款的一定比率保留流动性。这是央行今年第三次上调存款准备金率，调整后，大中型商业银行存款准备金率达到17%的高点。null人士认为，央行年内第三次上调准备金率，是货币政策向常态的进一步回归。一方面体现出央行对当前流动性过于充裕的担忧，另一方面则意在加强对通胀风险的管理。 null中国社科院金融所中国经济评价中心主任刘煜辉接受新华社记者采访时示，一季度之后经济有趋热倾向，经济实际增速已经高于潜在增速，同时资产泡沫也在累积。虽然居民消费价格指数CPI升幅尚属温和，但从央行发布的企业商品价格等数据来看升幅已经偏快。“在以上背景下，需要加快货币政策向常态的回归。” 刘煜辉说。 存款准备金率今年首下调 专家称非政策宽松信号存款准备金率今年首下调 专家称非政策宽松信号商报讯央行上周末宣布从2012年2月24日起下调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点。这是今年以来央行首次降低存款准备金率，本次下调将释放4000亿-5000亿元左右的流动性。专家认为，存准率下调只是央行货币政策灵活性的体现，并不意味着货币政策发生转向。null　其实，市场早已存在存款准备金率下调预期，但央行为何选择2月18日这一时点宣布消息？专家认为，银行间市场利率暴涨或许是本次存款准备金率下调的导火索。上海银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)从2月14日起出现快速上涨，隔夜利率和7天利率分别从2.9973%和3.77%飙升到4.495%和5.179%。由于资金面紧张，银行间市场人民币交易系统更是延时20分钟闭市。兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委(微博)认为，本次下调存款准备金率是对上周五市场流动性极度紧张、利率飙升的及时反应。此外，银行信贷增长乏力也是存款准备金率下调的重要原因。今年1月人民币贷款增加7381亿元，大大低于1万亿元左右的市场预期。欧盟加息面临两难抉择欧盟加息面临两难抉择2011-02-28 提前进入加息周期 　　在去年11月底发布的秋季经济预测报告中，欧盟委员会乐观预计，欧元区今后两年的通胀压力都不大，基本处于欧洲中央银行为维持物价稳定所期望的水平，这将为欧洲央行继续实施宽松货币政策以刺激经济增长留下空间。 　　但欧盟统计局上月底公布的最新数据显示，欧元区今年1月份的通胀率已升至2.4%，大幅超过欧洲央行设定的“接近但低于2%”的目标值。null面对骤然加剧的通胀压力，外界普遍预计欧洲国家央行将不得不提前迈入加息周期。 　　近来，多位欧洲央行官员释放出了强烈的加息信号。欧洲央行理事会成员、荷兰央行行长诺特·韦林克22日说，随着欧洲经济复苏，应考虑在未来几个月内加息，这不仅是为了抑制通胀，也是为了避免宽松货币政策实施过度。Why is there inflation?Why is there inflation?The overall increase in level of prices is called inflation. When prices fall, it is called deflation. Most prices tend to rise over time. null The classical theory of inflation 古典的通货膨胀理论The Value of Money The Value of Money If P is the price level, then the quantity of goods and services that can be purchased with $1 is equal to 1/P. 1/P is the value of money. When the overall price level rises, the value of money falls. Price of Orange=$1, value of $1= 1 orange Price of Orange=$5, value of $1= 0.2 orange. Money Supply, Money Demand and Monetary Equilibrium Money Supply, Money Demand and Monetary Equilibrium The value of money is determined by the supply and demand for money. 货币的供给曲线是垂直的 The supply of money is determined by the Fed. a. The quantity of money supplied is fixed. b. The supply of money will be vertical.nullMoney SupplyValue of moneyMoney DemandPrice LevelThe demand for moneyThe demand for moneyIs affected by many factors: --price level价格水平 --how much people use credit cards 信用卡的普及 --how easy to get cash from an ATM machine --level of interest rate利率水平The Demand for MoneyThe Demand for MoneyOne variable that is very important in determining the demand for money is the price level. 货币需求曲线是向下倾斜的 A higher price level leads to a higher quantity of money demanded. The demand for money is downward sloping because people want to hold more money when each dollar buys less. The Equilibrium price levelThe Equilibrium price levelIn the long run, the overall price level adjusts to the level at which the demand for money and the supply of money are equal. nullTo show the supply and demand for money using a graph. 左边的竖轴是货币的价值 A. The left-hand vertical axis is the value of money, measured by 1/P. B. The right-hand vertical axis is the price level (P). Note that it is inverted ― a high value of money means a low price level and vice versa.nullC. The demand curve for money is downward sloping. When the value of money is low (the price level is high), people demand a larger quantity of money to buy goods and services. Shifts of the supply curveShifts of the supply curveSuppose when the money supply level is $1000 billion, the equilibrium price level is 2. Now the money supply increases to $2000 billion, the money supply curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium price level is 4. The increase in money supply causes price level to rise, and leads to inflation.Money supply shift right Money supply shift right Value of moneyMoney demand Money supply The Effects of a Monetary Injection The Effects of a Monetary Injection 1.Assume that the economy is currently in equilibrium and the Fed suddenly increases the supply of money.货币供给增加 2.The supply of money shifts to the right. 货币供给曲线向右移动 3.The equilibrium value of money falls and the price level rises.物价水平上升 How to determine by how much the price level changes then ? The Quantity Theory of MoneyThe Quantity Theory of Moneya theory stating that the quantity of money available (the supply of money) determines the price level and that the growth rate in the quantity of money available determines the inflation rate. Inflation rate = Money Supply Growth nullHow does the change in money supply affect the real GDP of the country? 当货币供给上升时, 对实际GDP的影响怎样?The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality The economic variables should be divided into two groups: nominal variables and real variables. a. Nominal Variables: variables measured in monetary units. b. Real Variables: variables measured in physical units. Classical Dichotomy: the theoretical separation of nominal and real variables.nullExamples of nominal variables: The price of a digital camera. The nominal GDP of China. The inflation rate. Real variables: The total production of digital camera of China. The real GDP of China. Saving and investment of the Chinese economy. nullDavid Hume suggested that different forces influence real and nominal variables. Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables. Monetary Neutrality货币中性论 : the proposition that changes in the money supply do not affect real variables.Velocity and the Quantity Equation Velocity and the Quantity Equation The velocity of money refers to the speed at which money changes hands. To calculate velocity, we divide nominal GDP by the quantity of money. 货币流通速度=名义GDP/货币供给 Velocity=nominal GDP/ Money supply nullIf P is the price level (the GDP deflator), Y is real GDP and M is the quantity of money: Velocity=P x Y / M 货币供给越高, 流通速度越慢. 实际GDP越高,流通速度越快. null年份 M2 名义GDP V货币流通速度 2003.1 18.9万亿元 12.0万亿元 0.63 2004.1 22.3 16 0.63 2006.1 30.4 18.4 0.61 2007.1 35.1 20.9 0.595 2009.1 49.6 30.7 0.60 2010.9 69.6 38.0 0.54 数据来源:中国人民银行统计数据 nullnullIn 2010, the US nominal GDP is $14,400 billion and the M2 of US is $8470 billion. Velocity in US=Nominal GDP/M2 = $14400/$8470 =1.70 美国的货币流通速度,是中国的3倍.是什么原因造成的?nullRearranging, we get the quantity equation. M x V=P x Y Example: Suppose that: Real GDP = $5,000 Money supply = $2,000 Price level = 2 Velocity = ? We can show that: M x V = P xY and V=P x Y / M V = 2 X $5,000/$2000 =5通货膨胀发生过程通货膨胀发生过程Quantity Equation: the equation M×V = P×Y. How an increase in the supply of money affects the price level using the quantity equation. 1.The velocity of money is relatively stable over time. (In the long run, we can assume V is constant for instance V=10). null2. When the Fed changes the quantity of money (M), it will proportionately change the nominal value of output (P × Y). 3. Because money is neutral, changes in the money supply do not affect output. Assume Y is constant (for example Y=$1000 billion). And we have M×V = P×Y turns into 10xM=$1000xP and M=$100xP. 4. M=$100xP . This must mean that P increases proportionately with the change in M.nullM×V = P×Y 在数量方程式中, 由于当货币供应M上升时, 货币的流通速度V不变, 实际GDP也不变(根据货币中性理论), 所以物价水平P与货币供给M同比例上涨,引发通货膨胀.nullM×V = P×Y 由此导出 M的增长+V的增长=P的增长+Y的增长 当货币供给增长10%, V,Y不变时, 那么物价水平上涨10%. 当货币供给增加15%，V不变时，物价上升5%时，则实际收入增加10%。课堂讨论课堂讨论1.最新统计数据表明中国的通货膨胀有不断上升的趋势，2011全年CPI涨5.4% 远超年初4%目标,造成近期通货膨胀的主要原因是什么? 国家可以采取哪些措施治理通货膨胀?null中国的通货膨胀会失控吗 中国的通货膨胀会失控吗 2010年12月13日 02:33第一财经日报 11月份的CPI揭晓：5.1%！这是又一个出乎市场意料的数字，上一个是10月份的4.4%。 现在CPI的快速上涨并未出乎笔者的意料。对于未来中国的通货膨胀的趋势，笔者最新的看法是：假定现在的CPI的编制方法不变，通货膨胀率仍将继续上升，并不能排除失控(恶性通货膨胀)的风险，除非中国找到正确的应对方法，并解决自身的痼疾。null这一判断是源自于如下五重逻辑。 1。 美国金融危机的逻辑。2006年美国的GDP是13.2万亿美元，其资产证券化约90万亿美元，其金融衍生品约518万亿美元。资产证券和金融衍生品总计高达GDP的46倍。这意味着美国的金融虚拟资产价格被极大地高估，而真实的物质财富价格被严重低估，当美国虚拟金融泡沫破灭，金融虚拟资产价格将向真实物质财富价格回归——即金融虚拟资产价格下跌，而物质财富价格上涨。null真实物质财富含量较高的发展中国家，比如中国、印度，其资产价格会被向上高估。即美国紧缩，中国通胀。 2。 主权债务危机(纸币危机)的逻辑。 在2008年以来的金融危机拯救中，美联储印刷了大量纸币，美国政府发行了大量国债，去拯救金融机构，本质是将金融机构的债务危机转嫁到了美国政府肩上，目前美国国债占GDP之比已逼近100%，而2011年和2012年美国国债到期压力更大。null如果美国政府无力偿还，或者市场不愿接手更多的国债，甚至抛出国债，美国国债泡沫将雪崩，美元将急剧贬值，黄金和大宗商品价格将急剧上涨，美国将会由通缩转变为恶性通货膨胀。 null3。 人民币升值的逻辑。9月以来，随着美国对中国人民币施压加大，人民币快速升值，最近又加息，使得热钱在中国套利空间加大，热钱重新涌入中国，9月份外汇储备新增1005亿美元，创下历史新高。这加大了中国基础货币的发行，货币增速远超过商品增速，则通货膨胀不可避免。除非热钱大量外逃，人民币贬值，此一因素方可消失或者逆转。 null4。 农产品涨价背后的博弈逻辑。 在中国CPI结构中，食品权重占到33%。国际农产品价格大幅上涨，对中国CPI的上涨起到了直接推动作用。国际农产品价格暴涨，其背后有双重博弈：是中美大国之间的博弈，美国是农业第一强国，农产品涨价对美国有益无害，中国则是农产品涨价的受损者。因而从国家利益角度，美国会乐意看到农产品涨价 null5。政府低效投资和既得利益扩张的逻辑。近年，中国政府自身消费约占到财政支出的18%，而政府投资约占到财政支出的25%，这些投资和消费效率低下，对货币流动性出现了不小的损耗。为了弥补这种损耗，会有更多的货币、信贷被发出，这使得人民币通货膨胀又新增了一个源头。 null中国还有一个迄今未被重视的反通胀方法——鼓励央行、金融机构和民间在国内购买实物黄金，这可以收缩相当程度的流动性。而大力增加实物黄金储备，更可以增加中国对冲美元主权债务危机的筹码。然而，这个副作用最少的方法，一直处于有关部门决策盲点之中。 Review questionsReview questionsWhat is the relationship between price levels and the money supply in the economy? How is the level of prices determined in the market? What kind of monetary policy is responsible of causing inflation?The Inflation TaxThe Inflation TaxPrices rise when money supply increases (or the government prints too much money). Why do the central banks print so much money? Because the governments are using money creation to pay for spending. 政府为了弥补预算赤字而发行货币时，就产生了通货膨胀税。The Inflation TaxThe Inflation TaxInflation Tax: the revenue the government raises by creating money. The inflation tax is a tax on everyone who holds money. Inflation reduces the real value of money, and causes our real income to decrease. When the government prints money, the price level rises and the dollar in your wallet are less valuable. ExercisesExercises1. The value of money a. is constant. b. is positively related to the price level. c. is determined by the supply and demand of money. d. is not explained by the quantity theory of money.null2. The quantity of money demanded is a. positively related to the money supply. b. negatively related to the money supply. c. negatively related to the price level. d. positively related to the price level.null3. Interest rates stated in The Wall Street Journal are a. classical variables. b. dichotomous variables. c. nominal variables. d. real variables.null4. According to the principle of monetary neutrality, a decrease in the money supply will a. increase real GDP. b. not affect unemployment. c. not affect the price level. d. decrease real interest rates.null*5. If money is neutral and velocity is stable, an increase in the money supply creates a proportional increase in a. real output. b. nominal output. c. the price level. d. Both b and c are correct. null6. A decrease in the money supply creates an excess A.supply of money that is eliminated by rising prices. B.supply of money that is eliminated by falling prices. C.demand for money that is eliminated by rising prices. D.demand for money that is eliminated by falling prices.   null7. When the money market is drawn with the value of money on the vertical axis, the price level decreases if A.either money demand or money supply shifts right. B.either money demand or money supply shifts left. C.money demand shifts right or money supply shifts left. D.money demand shifts left or money supply shifts right. ProblemsProblems1. Using separate graphs, demonstrate what happens to money supply, money demand, the value of money and the price level if: a. the Fed increases the money supply. b. people decide to demand less money at each price level. null2. If the income tax rate is 10% for the income that is less than $30,000, and the tax rate is 20% for the income that is above $30,000. A. How much tax should a person pay if his income is $40,000? B. How much tax should a person pay if his income is $80,000? Suppose inflation is 100%.null2. 1) Tax=$3000+$2000=$5,000 Effective tax rate is 12.5% 2) Tax=$3000+$10000=$13,000. Effective tax rate=16.3%The Fisher Effect The Fisher Effect How does the growth in the money supply affects the interest rates? Real interest rate=Nominal interest rate –inflation rate Nominal interest rate=Real interest rate+inflation rate The Fisher EffectThe Fisher EffectWhen the Fed increases the rate of growth of the money supply, the inflation rate increases. This in turn will lead to an increase in the nominal interest rate. Fisher effect: the adjustment of the nominal interest rate to the inflation rate. 实际利率不变. Example: Example: Real interest rate = 3% Inflation rate = 5% Nominal interest rate will be 3% + 5% = 8%.  If the inflation rate rises to 10%, the nominal interest rate will rise to 3% + 10% = 13%. The real interest rate is always 3%. nullThe Costs of Inflation The Costs of Inflation Why inflation is bad? When there is inflation, things are more expensive. So inflation lowers living standards. Is it the true? Question : What has to happen in order to make your living standard unchanged?nullAnswer: It depends on how much income is increasing. When our wages grow as fast as inflation, our living standards are the same. null1. The Inflation Fallacy As prices rise, so do incomes. Thus, inflation does not in itself reduce the purchasing power of incomes. When the inflation rate is 5%, and workers income increase by 10%, workers real income rise by only 5%. null2. Shoeleather Costs When there is inflation, people can not use money to store value. Because inflation erodes the value of money that you carry in your pocket, you can avoid this drop in value by holding less money.  nullShoeleather Costs: the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings. People are forced to convert money into goods or hard currency, like US dollar. null3. Menu Costs: the costs of changing prices. During period of inflation, firms must change their prices more often. One survey found that the typical US firm changes its prices about once a year. null4. Relative-Price Variability and the Misallocation of Resources Because prices of most goods change only once in a while, inflation causes relative prices to vary more than they would otherwise.  When inflation distorts relative prices, consumer decisions are distorted and markets are less able to allocate resources efficiently. ExampleExampleRelative prices: A bottle of Sprite is $1.00. A bottle of Cola is $1.25. Relative prices is 4:5. I buy a bottle of Sprite. When prices rise, A bottle of Sprite is $1.50. A bottle of Cola is $1.50. Relative price is 1:1. Now I like to buy a bottle of Cola. Cola gets cheaper.null5. Inflation-Induced Tax Distortions All taxes lead to a less efficient allocation of the economy’s resources. When inflation raises the tax burden on saving, it tends to depress the economic’s growth rate. Indexation Indexation 税收的指数化 The income levels at which income tax rates change are adjusted each year based on inflation. In the case of interest income, government could tax only the real interest income.null2. If the income tax rate is 10% for the income that is less than $30,000, and the tax rate is 20% for the income that is above $30,000. A. How much tax should a person pay if his income is $40,000? B. How much tax should a person pay if his income is $80,000? Suppose inflation is 100%. null2. 1) Tax=$3000+$2000=$5,000 Effective tax rate is 12.5% 2) Tax=$3000+$10000=$13,000. Effective tax rate=16.3% 当通货膨胀时，政府的税收负担增加，减少家庭收入。 null5. Confusion and Inconvenience Because of inflation, it is difficult to compare value of money at different times. null债券的未来值，一年后的 Future Value=现值*（1+名义利率） 现值 Present Value=债券的未来值/（ 1+名义利率） 因此，利率越高，债券的实际价值（现值）越低。Unexpected Inflation: Arbitrary Redistributions of Wealth Unexpected Inflation: Arbitrary Redistributions of Wealth The real value of this debt will depend on inflation. Real value of debt=1/(1+nominal interest rate) Real interest rate =3%, inflation= 5% One year later， the real value of debt is lower。 Nominal value of debt=$1000 Real value of debt =$1000/1.08=$925.9 nullAssume inflation=10% Real value of debt=$1000/1.13=$885 < $925.9 The real value of debt will decrease when the inflation rate is higher than expected. 当通货膨胀上升时, 名义利率上升，债务的实际价值下降, 使债务人受益，债权人受损. nullThe real value of debt will increase when the inflation rate is lower than expected. 在低通货膨胀下，债务价值上升，债权人获益。 A hyper inflation makes debtor richer at the cost of creditors. 恶性通货膨胀使债务人受益。 Question: What level of unexpected inflation is good for banks? ExercisesExercises1. The cost of changing price tags and price listings is known as a. inflation-induced tax distortions. b. relative-price variability costs. c. shoeleather costs. d. menu costs.null2. People can avoid the inflation tax by a. not holding money. b. not filing a tax return. c. holding all their wealth as cash. d. None of the above are correct.ExercisesExercises3. Wealth is distributed from debtors to creditors when inflation is a. high, but expected. b. low, but expected. c. unexpectedly high. d. unexpectedly low.null 4. High and unexpected inflation has a greater cost a. for those who borrow, than those who save. b. for those who hold a lot of money, than those who hold a little. c. for those whose wages increase by as much as inflation, than those who are paid a fixed nominal wage. d. Both a and b are correct.null 5. If inflation is more than expected, a. debtors receive a higher real interest rate than they had anticipated. b. debtors pay a higher real interest rate than they had anticipated. c. creditors receive a lower real interest rate than they had anticipated. d. creditors pay a lower real interest rate than they had anticipated.null