中金公司内部培训资料

2008ભ3ၥ ٹᄔူϭ๠੦໸ ᄯڳڳޝࠡకပຫ٤ഓ 2 ԛྡྷჃ ٹᄔԅݮ·ؠ઱ ԛ֝Ⴣ ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ ԛసჃ ॅಮ߬྾֥ ԛങჃ ຣࠡঠؠ઱ރຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ ԛ๔Ⴣ IPOٹᄔ VS M&Aٹᄔ ԛঢჃ ߙ੦ԅڶёۤᅟ࿉ಹົ ԛ୞Ⴣ ຣࠡঠඬຣ੦໸ԅ೛ѻ ંৃ ٹᄔԅݮ·ؠ઱ ԛྡྷჃ 4 ୲ྜԅޮᄔ „ ᆇСԅޮᄔᅖྑပ०ᄵζຣ໹಴ġ჋ੋޮᄔۤೇЦޮᄔd჋ੋޮᄔއᆇСؕႯζ౨ֱ࿸ԅᆙᆇСc ࡊᆇСēᅖྑֱ࿸ॅಮю·dೇЦޮᄔఢڂରԅೇᄔc޹ωೌٳᄯᄆؑԅճޮԉēᅖྑֱ࿸รࣿ ೌ࿍ԅտ౲d „ ၽտ೴ெࣣຏē჋ੋޮᄔϢટყಬֱ࿸୲ྜรࣿԅೌ࿍ē࿙Ү჋ੋޮᄔۤೇЦޮᄔชชပࠀӖЕ ࿓dैఢēᆙԅࣿഊē჋ੋޮᄔᅖྑဈဟݖޙંԅē֗ᆇ·ೇЦ౨ԅ෇ᆇრٗนڑᅟԅ႕ಾೇЦ ޮᄔdྻຏൎඉৢԅޮᄔ࢈ಾᄗೇЦޮᄔd ୲ྜޮᄔ ࡊႯ๠ ౲೴ڂՊ௣࿍ ॓࿯٤ഓޮᄔ ڂ௣ޮᄔ ď௜ࢅဟޙസ EV ԅRevenueݧრ EBITDAcEBITᄯ ಾ׮ྸͧۃ॓࿯٤ ഓԅᄔĐ — — + 5 ᅖྑٹᄔֺ֥ؠ೭ „ ਠပྡྷᄵٹᄔֺ֥ಾࢇճჾ௲ԅdਤᄵֺ֥՛ပୣည௬Ԥē࿫؞ٔ࡬ெࣣ༪႔ۦುԅٹᄔֺ֥d „ ඹШݖರဈտᄵٹᄔֺ֥ࣿອܚིᄃēωᆫᄴ௲Շྡྷّޮᄔ௕޷d „ უᄵֺ֥ᅖྑྦྷऀဟճဟ΄ٹᄔ ୲ྜԅຣࠡঠۤ֟Ⴚമէԅ၇ Љēྻރճဟᆇ·ю·ۤᄴᄔԅ ެಁďެಁԅᅹ௲໿ճٹᄔࠒڴ ԅ࿵ູᄠڑᄷྑĐ „ सৢ౨ᆫ෻౟ԅٹᄔֺ֥ „ ၇Љรࣿయؤભԅ࠼࿯ຣࠡঠēωဈ୾Ӳ ԅඬຣ৑ďަ௣଼࢈ᆇ·ю·Đۤᄴᄔޙ സֺ֥ޙസუ໔ຣࠡঠۤᄴᄔԅඬຣᄔē ྻҮޙസ୲ྜޮᄔۤڂ௣ޮᄔ ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ „ ࢶࢬ໿ྦྷऀဟॅಮ߬྾ԅ೴२c ࢶΑёէྻރճဟ੶ᄵᆇСၽਤ ّ߬྾ನࢹԅ٢ௐڑຂ „ ೇЦᄻ୙ۤέՎёէྙݖ࿵ູٹ ᄔࠒڴ „ ၽࣅᄥ௣֟ಓέܤԅெࣣຏඔ٢ೇЦܤԅ ٹᄔݮᅹ „ ٹᄔࠒڴͧࣳࣅᄥ௣࿎ޮ „ ဈࢶΑԅॅಮωٳ߬྾ᄯԅٹᄔᄗγۤ΄ ٹᄔ୲ྜԅ࿯ၮᄗγޙസٹᄔ ॅಮ߬྾֥ „ ࢶࢬ໿ྦྷऀဟୣ൑٤ࢗ߬྾٤ഓ ԅࢶΑёէēͧࣳ໻ྜcСଶफ ιcೌదڟ੦cԙसสᄢcೌ࿍ ৑c֟Ⴚࠈխ „ ඹڶד๥ࢶΑ٤ഓԅ߬྾ۤ࿯ၮහޙ೴࡬ ԄӾ؞٤ഓၽ٤ࢗԅᆇ·ೇЦԅ࿥ۃޮᄔ „ ٹᄔࠒڴϢͧࣳࣅᄥ௣࿎ޮ „ ဈࢶΑ٤ഓԅٹᄔͿ೴ۤ΄ٹᄔ୲ྜԅ࿯ ၮᄗγޙസٹᄔ ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ උԤ੍೭ٹᄔֺ֥ 6 ٹᄔԅဈා „ ٹᄔד๥࿫ဈڜַġ – ٤ࢗ֟໻ġ௲Շ֟໻ޮރ੿ނᆇࠡڟ੦ – ٳ৹୲ྜݧڂ௣ġ࿫Ӳѻޮտ౲ࣿٳ৹ – ѻ೒୲ྜݧڂ௣ġࢶྻྻտ౲ޮٌѻ೒ – ٤଼ିޮġҶϭ๠ԅڔԤēିޮѻޮಾ׮٤଼ – ໭ྜ๠ġ໭ྜ๠ճဟ෇ᆇݍͱྻރ୲ྜޮᄔԅ࿵ູ ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ ԛ֝Ⴣ 8 ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ؠࣣ „ඹШēၽڂରೇЦ౨ᆙݖӉၽူ೎ұ٤ࢗ֟໻ԅ୲ྜफഛԅࢶΑ٤ഓd უ໔٤ഓڂରԅೇЦޮᄔēֱ࿸ॴ෇ᆇრં஍ճუफ٤ഓԅٹᄔdॆ ဈუ໔ࢶΑ٤ഓԅྡྷ໔ֱ࿸ٹᄔഃ଼ԅᄗγē࡜ࢶྻဈࣿٹസ೎ұ٤ ࢗ֟໻ԅ୲ྜޮᄔēއࢶΑ٤ഓ֥d „ರဈࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ٹᄔēඹШပྻຏދّϤᅇġ – ༪௜ۦುԅࢶΑ٤ഓ – ༪௜ۦುԅᄗγ – ٹസ೎ұ٤ࢗ֟໻ԅ୲ྜԅޮᄔ „ैఢġA٤ഓಾྡྷޥྭՎԨܥ٤ഓēୣࢶΑ٤ഓԅ“୲ྜޮᄔĖဈܜ೴” ᄗγ଼࢈น1000ਥ၍ē֗A٤ഓӾ1999ભԘပ10ฃဈܜē႕ୣ୲ྜޮ ᄔٹസน1000 * 10ฃĤ1࿁ਥ၍d 9 ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ԅဈාރည௬Ԥ ဈා „ ݮဟೇЦճဟ٤ࢗ߬྾٤ഓԅٹᄔ „ นร౨ೇ٤ഓߙोٹᄔݮᅹ „ ඹڶճਤᄵྜ๠ߙोٹᄔݮᅹࣿד๥ྡྷّࣔ໻ྜᆘۦ໿୲ྜԅЗדޮᄔ „ ၭ༘ճ࠼࿯ᅱࣣࠩ໻Αࠀۤד๥ ညԤ „ ݮဟ٤ࢗ໰๯ „ ပ໒ೇЦԅެಁ࿉ลᆂ߬྾ޮٌ࿫؞ֱ࿸ͧࣳ௔ಽc ྜ๠פຢc֟Ⴚമէԉ௦ϦࢶྻݦԄԅ໰๯ „ ճဟࠧႽ౲೴ڂ௣ԅ෇ᆇēޮᄔԅݦԄࢶྻᆴน٤ ഓޮᄔࢶࢬԅγᄝďއϢͧࣳࣅᄥ௣࿎ޮĐ ௬Ԥ „ ۳ઔდӾӖ२ԅࢶΑ٤ഓĢ۳ઔݧϢࢶટճࢶΑ٤ ഓྜ๠౨ԅЕ࿓ࠩ໻ᅹ௲ԅԸჼ – ࠰ڕပڑဟ”ပ໒ೇЦ“ԅެಁēӬပನ۳ઔࠓ ೄੜມफഛԅ٤ഓ࡮ပϢලԅٹᄔഃ଼ē߬྾ ݣၡёէྙӉၽࠀӖЕ࿓ „ ပԅࢶΑ٤ഓԅٹᄔࢶટݖ೓Ӿೇᄔࠀ໌c௬֣ཙ ࡎٕᆖc٤ᄹћڂ२໌c߬྾Ϣݣၡԉԅ࿵ູ „ ڂରޮٌܮݖ೓Ӿ໻ྜઝωٳc޳ڕԉෳϦ࿙ഭԅ ࿵ູ 10 ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ԅד๥ྑԤ „ ໻ྜ – Ϣල໻ྜԅ୲ྜပϢලԅٹᄔᄗγ „ ಾ׮ල໻ྜ٤ഓ࢈ࢶΑ – Сଶ – ڟ੦ – ԙ௕ – ࿴ॆ໿ „ ܮ༓ྑࢩৎԅูඕ – ࿫؞ڑᅟઇ໔ᄗγĦ – ؞୲ྜԅٹᄔອճဟࡉჺճ್࿫؞ಾ࿎ޮܮಾნޮĦน಩ਙĦ – ؞୲ྜԅ࠼࿯੦಴ອճဟࡉჺճ್ಾ׮ပ໒৑Ħ – ؞୲ྜԅ໰ဈԉމఢۥĦ – ူࡉჺճ್Αࠀē؞୲ྜԅᆇ·ࠒٲఢۥĦ ௲Շދّူંγ٤ഓ ᆫࢶΑԅ٤ഓۤٹᄔ ᄗγ 11 ࢶΑ٤ഓ໰๯ࣿၗ „ϭ࠼ᆇ༿నߑďఢা෉ಀc଎ϐcFactsetԉĐ „෇ᆇ࿟໻ԅཙࡎͱفďᄯࠡͱفc੩ٔͱفcThomson ResearchĐ „٤ഓભͱ 12 ०फٹᄔᄗγ „ ༪௜ۦುԅࢶΑ٤ഓ܊ēܮ࿫௲ՇۦುԅٹᄔᄗγdუྂԅٹᄔᄗγඹШပྻຏ०फġ „ דᆐน౨೭ԛྡྷफᄗγ „ ד੻นࢶΑ٤ഓԅྜ๠႙Щ৑ďඹШಾయؤભԅ଼࢈ભ႙Щ৑Đēࢶྻಾೌద႙Щ৑c ॆమ႙Щ৑cEBITDA႙Щ৑ԉ „ Шဈԅᄗγပġ୲ྜޮᄔĖEBITDAճEBITDA႙Щ৑ԉ „ דᆐֱ࿸ޮᄔēࢶྻಾೇᄔcڂ௣ޮᄔcڂޮԉ „ ד੻ֱ࿸୲ྜ·ಆԅ࿴ॆટॏݧ࿺ပԅᆇၗēࢶྻಾॆమcਤڂॆమcೌదcᆙᆇСc ࡊᆇСcဈܜ೴ „ უफᄗγάဟٹസ࡮ပϢල࿴ॆટॏݧᆇСڟ੦ԅࢶΑ٤ഓԅٹᄔ „ Шဈԅᄗγပġೇ࿴৑ďڂޮĖਤڂॆమĐcೇࡊ৑ďڂޮĖਤڂࡊᆇСĐc୲ྜޮ ᄔĖEBITDA*c୲ྜޮᄔĖೌదc୲ྜޮᄔĖဈܜ೴ԉ ޮᄔ ࿴ॆݧᆇС ޮᄔĖ࿴ॆݧᆇС ྜ๠႙Щ৑ EBITDAġࣈ҂ნࡘcൢ໇cॆ๯׎ဈރൎԄഅ஍ԅॆమē߅ӦԙसࠓēອӲဟഅ܊ॆమަݍൎԄഅcॆ๯׎ဈcნࡘူൢ໇dუّᄗγֱ࿸ԅ ಾϢࢩৎ୲ྜԅకᆇݣՎcҢӅԅ࠼࿯ൎСಓԅຣࠡঠd 13 Ԩ໰٤ഓၽϢලࠈխԅࢶΑᄗγ „ٔ࡬Ԩ໰٤ഓၽϢලࠈխԅඋԤē෇ᆇრರဈϢලᄗγࣿٹസୣޮᄔġ EBITDA ನ޷ ୲ྜޮᄔ/څՇᆇС ୲ྜޮᄔ/ંγೇЦ ڟ੦ ୲ྜޮᄔ/ೌద ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBITDA ୲ྜޮᄔ/ೌద ೇ࿴৑ ೇ࿴৑ ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBITDA 14 Ҏහ٤ഓူ໭ࡉჺრԅΑࠀ ճဟၽೇЦࡉჺᄯ҉ဟϢලԙสԅ٤ഓē෇ᆇრರဈԅࢶΑᄗγྙݖϢලġ Ϣල֟ႺࠈխӉၽϢලԅٹᄔᄗγĢ ϭ๠ᄗγྻෳē࠼࿯ᄗγԅಬຣெࣣ ಾ௚Վڂޮԅᄷྑ࿙ഭĢ Մຬԅ႙Щ ďೌదcຣࠡঠĐ ໭ࡉჺრ ೇ࿴৑ ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBITDA ڂ௣ޮᄔ/ຣࠡ࿴ॆ Ԙຬԅ႙Щ ďॆమcຣࠡঠĐ Ҏහ٤ഓ ᅖྑٹᄔᄗγ ෇ᆇრᅟᄷ 15 ࡨैġҎහԨ໰٤ഓԅࢶΑᄗγ ྻAT&Tนैġ „ 2000ભ2ၥ11ఐēڂޮน 48.63ਥ၍ēᆙೇᄔ1621 ࿁ਥ၍ „ ަ౨Ⴏ๠c߈௠ຣࠡē୲ ྜޮᄔน1921࿁ਥ၍ „ 1999ભEBITDAน196࿁ ਥ၍ „ ୲ྜޮᄔĖEBITDA = 9.8 Ϳ 9.8 10.1 16.8 19.7 19.1 10.9 15.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 $7 7 ࿧ڳԨ໰ ԃڳԨ໰ ֥ڳԨ໰ ະضԨ༿ ۂڳԨ໰ ໭ަୁԨ໰ ୲ྜޮᄔĖEBITDA Ϳ 16 ࡨैġҎහԨ໰٤ഓԅࢶΑᄗγ ď༣Đ ྻະضԨ໰นैġ „ ୲ ྜ ޮ ᄔ Ė EBITDA = 19.1 Ϳ „ ၇ ޙ 1999-2002 ભ ē EBITDAભ؏ۦ႙Щ৑น 7% „ ႕୲ྜޮᄔĖEBITDAճ EBITDA႙Щ৑ Ĥ 19.1 / 7 = 2.7 0.7 1.4 6.2 2.7 2.7 0.9 10.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 $7 7 ࿧ڳԨ໰ ԃڳԨ໰ ֥ڳԨ໰ ະضԨ༿ ۂڳԨ໰ ໭ަୁԨ໰ ୲ྜޮᄔĖEBITDAճEBITDA႙Щ৑ Ϳ 17 ०फٹᄔࠒڴ ڂ௣ޮᄔ „ ྸ֟໻ڂ·‚ڂରຣޮ „ ֱ࿸ၽЪؑႯ௣ఆۤညຕڂڂՊ܊ē୔ඹڂڂՊ࿫Ԅೌ࿍ „ ᅖྑڂ௣ޮᄔͿ೴ġ – ڂ௣ޮᄔ/ࡊॆమ ďೇ࿴৑Đ – ڂ௣ޮᄔ/ᆑဎຣࠡঠ – ڂ௣ޮᄔ/ڂ௣჋ੋޮᄔďೇࡊ৑Đ ୲ྜޮᄔ „ ڂ௣ޮᄔĒࡊႯ๠Ē౲೴ڂՊ௣࿍Ēညຕڂ – ࡊႯ๠Ĥի୙Ⴏ๠ĒЩ୙Ⴏ๠Ēᆇ·ܤᆟইĔຣࠡރ ຣࠡԉޮ๞ „ ֱ࿸ൎပ෇ᆇრൎ࿫ݦԄԅޮᄔēͧࣳႯ௣ఆۤڂՊ „ ᅖྑ୲ྜޮᄔͿ೴ – ୲ྜޮᄔ/ೌద ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBITDA – ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBIT ୲ྜޮᄔ/ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ ୲ྜޮᄔԅͿ೴ ڂ௣ޮᄔԅͿ೴ ൎပᆇ·ඔ٢რ՛ટݦԄԅᄗγ ໇೒ೌద EBITDA EBIT ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ ࠧڂ௣෇ᆇრટݦԄԅᄗγ EBT ࡊॆమ ᆑဎຣࠡঠ Ⴏ௣ޮᄔ ڂ௣ޮᄔ 18 ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ࡨै – ٹᄔᄗγ ୲ྜޮᄔ/ 08E X ࠭12ၥ X 08E X ࠭12ၥ X 08E X ࠭12ၥ X 09E X 08E X 1.710.010.78.78.610.810.71.91.922.018.612,95711,04827.000CoG 1.612.08.210.310.812.713.31.92.018.921.18,6147,42951.900CoF 1.410.56.69.09.910.612.21.92.014.816.418,52215,37742.050CoE 1.59.820.08.79.510.411.51.71.814.616.110,5108,68355.100CoD 1.311.89.19.19.811.112.11.61.615.217.113,66310,98838.050CoC 10.4 14.6 11.8 12.1 13.2 12.9 13.4 11.8 11.4 14.6 16.0 23.8 18.1 18.5 16.3 19.3 21.0 23.8 16.0 18.1 ೇ࿴৑ 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.3 2009E ೇ࿴৑ճ ႙Щ X 1.8 55.8 8.8 12.8 8.8 4.0 55.8 1.8 3.4 12.3 ೇࡊ৑ x 7.8 14.4 9.9 10.1 10.5 14.4 10.4 7.8 9.2 10.2 EBITDA 0.7 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.4 0.7 3.1 14.4 22.0 16.1 16.1 16.7 14.4 17.0 18.9 14.4 16.1 ᆫԎ ᆫغ ᄯᄔ ଼࢈ᄔ 20,435 7,149 6,475 7,561 10,785 18,324 ೇᄔ $MM٤ഓ 0.7 2.7 1.8 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.7 2.7 ೌద 24,639 9,416 7,199 12,196 16,198 21,600 ୲ྜޮᄔ $MM 13.08.612.222.450CoB 12.57.911.428.600CoH 11.010.213.047.500CoL 11.810.120.323.250CoJ 13.89.714.343.750CoK 11.79.513.0 11.89.112.2 9.87.910.7 13.812.320.3 12.712.312.040.350CoA 5ભਤڂ ೌ࿍৑ CAGR % EBIT ຣޮ $ ࢶΑ٤ഓ 19 ࢶΑ٤ഓד๥ࡨै – ၮ࿯ᄗγ 17.8 17.1 ॆమ৑ % ࠭12ၥ $MM ࠭12ၥ $MM ࠭12ၥ $ ॆమ৑ % ࠭12ၥ $MM ॆమ৑ % ࠭12ၥ $MM 1.4010.5715.117.91,215.022.11,501.26,784.1CoG 2.307.8342.814.7647.418.1798.04,397.8CoF 2.149.1830.916.61,524.220.31,864.79,180.0CoE 3.278.9528.315.4910.518.71,106.55,923.5CoD 4.066.2523.013.51,133.016.61,388.08,372.0CoC 1,728.0 552.4 1,068.0 1,327.6 1,799.0 EBIT 7.8 7.5 3.7 5.6 4.8 2.7 13.4 13.5 13.5 8.7 11.3 12.1 5.6 22.3 ᄯ޷ᄔ ଼࢈ᄔ 2,346.0 692.1 1,568.0 1,762.9 2,123.0 EBITDA ٤ഓ 726.8 273.3 422.0 631.0 1076.0 ࡊॆమ 11.8 14.1 17.8 7.4 26.3 1.4123,754.3CoB 1.588,791.0CoH 1.974,892.5CoL 1.4519,838.0CoK 2.338,057.0CoA ਤڂೌ࿍໇೒ೌద ࢶΑ٤ഓ 20 ࢶΑ٤ഓ֥ٹᄔԅᅟ࿉ಹົ ࿫ᅟ࿉ᆳӾ �� „ ޿АࢶΑ٤ഓಾ׮Ӊၽ „ ၧՠཙࡎͱف „ එ҂ੜມैෳԅᄗγ „ ؏ۢ೴ᆓ „ ޿Аൎವ೴࡬ࠒڴಾ׮ပ࿉࿌ „ ޙസ଼࢈ᄔۤᄯ޷ᄔ „ ರဈڅՇٌ಴ „ ࠩ໻໻ྜඋပԅԸჼ „ सࠓઇ໔ᄗγճဟൎཙࡎԅ໻ྜᆫອڑ ࿫ᅟ࿉Υੇ �� „ ญޚහྡྷݪΛӦสďဍୣճဟၮ࿯ᄗγĐ „ ญޚߜޙസൎྦྷ࡬ԅၮ࿯ᄗγԸჼӾලྡྷࢶΑԅನ ޷խ „ ญޚ௠҂Ϣອڑďํ࿉࿌Đԅහޙ೴࡬ „ ܍৛ॴّιݾժैෳ೴࡬ճ଼࢈ᄔۤᄯ޷ᄔԅ࿵ູ „ ެಁҶෳϦᄐࠄݦԄԅٹᄔͿ೴ᆙಾჾ௲ԅ 21 ॠ๽: UPS vs FedEx „ ၽ2002ભ3ၥ31ఐēUPS ᆇСؕႯζ౨ပ$11.42࿁ ຣࠡē$2.76࿁ի୙Ӟࣛ ۤ$47.17࿁Щ୙Ӟࣛ „ 2002ભ3ၥ3ఐēFedExԅ ෻௦ൢͪᆙڂ·น3.02࿁ ڂ 2004E2003E2002E1Q02A1Q01A2001A 3.05 3,360 7,163 5,492 37,056 2.65 2,975 6,479 4,904 34,361 0.50 563 1,298 947 7,579 0.51 582 1,262 944 7,434 2,4442,425ࡊॆమ 4,0993,962EBIT 5,5545,358EBITDA 2.162.12ਤڂೌ࿍ 31,41630,320ೌద ࠉᄠ12ၥ31ఐ UPS ($MM ҂ਤڂೌ࿍ᄗγෳ) 2004E2003E2002E2001A 3.25 974 3,180 1,647 23,585 2.75 837 2,896 1,461 22,072 725664ࡊॆమ 1,3211,195EBIT 2,6622,347EBITDA 2.392.26ਤڂೌ࿍ 20,60719,629ೌద ࠉᄠ5ၥ31ఐ FedEx ($MM ҂ਤڂೌ࿍ᄗγෳ) ᄯ޷ᄔ ଼࢈ᄔ 2003EB ITDA X 2002EB ITDA X EBIT X EBITDA X ೌద X CY200 3 X CY2002 X ࠭12 ّၥ X 3.43.03.73.56.23.90.49.711.010.214,09213,27111.93DEUTSCHE POST 1.69.47.58.012.98.71.114.316.015.011,92410,34821.78TPG 1.412.42.22.5Nm3.50.313.828.817.766257812.02AIRBORNE FREIGHT CORP 13.317,65715,780FDX CORP ೇ࿴৑ 1.9 รࣿ 12ّၥ ೇ࿴৑ ճ႙Щ X 13.7 ୲ྜޮᄔ 72,358 ڂ௣ ޮᄔ $MM ୲ྜ ޮᄔ(1) $MM 63.25UNITED PARCEL SERVICE ٤ഓ 3ભ၇ޙ ਤڂ࿴ ॆ႙Щ ৑ % ୲ྜޮᄔ / ࠭12ၥޮٌ $ ๞ঠ୲ྜڂର߬྾හޙζ 2002ભ7ၥ10ఐ ॅಮ߬྾֥ ԛసჃ 23 ॅಮ߬྾֥ဈාރည௬Ԥ ဈා „ ၽࣅᄥ௣֟ಓέܤԅெࣣຏճ୲ྜٹᄔ „ ᆴนඉৢԅݮ҄ēඔ٢ࢶΑ߬྾ԅື຅໰๯ „ ມವ໻ྜϵူრၽॅಮભךٳ৹ࢶΑᆇСރᄆؑճޮԅ࿉ၛ „ ௲ՇೇЦճϢලफ໸ᆇСԅ༓ௐďఢġ߬྾଴৑ރᄆؑԅ࿎ޮĐ ညԤ „ ݮဟ٤٫໰๯ „ ဎဟॅಮ߬྾ྸ࠼юٟԙ෻юē࿙Үڑဟ࿎ޮԅד ๥࡮ပࢶЀᆴ໿ „ ມವѻೌٳԅ௔ಽēैఢġ໻ྜჼۦcڳෳೌٳრc ϭ๠ೌٳრԉ „ ඔ٢ࢶટԅٳ৹ֺྻރୣѻޮԅ࿉ၛۤટॏԅϵࢩ ໰๯ ௬Ԥ „ ॅಮ߬྾ԅ٤ࢗ೴࡬ࢶટပຫݧပ๢ӽ໿ „ ॅಮ߬྾۳౲ટᄐࠄݧ෻௦ࢶΑ „ Ϣಾ߬྾ֺّْੋ՛ટֱ࿸ၽٹᄔͿ೴ᄯďैఢġ ౥ྜ൫૱cჿ؉޳ڕԉ࿙ഭĐ „ ൎ௜Ԅԅޮᄔֳถࢶટ۳Ӗē࿙Үဈාပຫ „ ॅಮ߬྾ӲನԅೇЦெࣣࢶટճٹᄔ࿵ູ۳Ӗďै ఢġ໻ྜᄻ୙cࡉჺܬࡂc߬྾ನᆇСԅ๮௬໿Đ 24 ༪႔ۦುԅॅಮ߬྾ „ ༪႔ۦುԅॅಮ߬྾ճဟॅಮ߬྾֥ԅٹᄔࠒڴᄠڑᄷྑ – ໻ྜġંγ٤ഓԅྜ๠ۤϭ๠ெࣣ࿫؞ࢶΑ – ߬྾ڟ੦ġॅಮ߬྾ڟ੦࿫؞ူંγ߬྾ٹᄔڟ੦ອӲ – ׄ౨ೇ٤ഓ޷ԅ߬྾ġׄ౨ೇ٤ഓ޷ԅ߬྾໰๯ೌނ୯ࣿඹШ۳ࣲઔĢ໭ ิࢶટಾทྡྷ໰๯ࣿၗ „ ࢶટԅᆇॸࣿၗġ – ϭ࠼ᆇ༿నߑďఢThomson One Banker, Deal Logic, Bloomberg, Factset, SDCԉĐ – ໻ྜۤອڑ߬྾ѻ͑๞ – ෇ᆇ࿟໻ԅཙࡎͱف – ౨ೇ٤ഓပڑۦωԅ٤ف 25 ંγᆇС ౨ೇ٤ഓ ნࣈΑै ďྦྷ࡬Ӳભϭ๠೴࡬ЉസĐ EV/EBITDA ೇ࿴৑ EV/EBITDA ೇ࿴৑ EV/EBITDA ೇ࿴৑ ᄯڳྭՎ 1998ભߞപྭՎᅟᆇ 7.2 19.2 15.1 31.0 52.3% 38.1% 1999ભ3ಘᅟᆇ 10.3 21.4 16.2 34.5 36.4% 38.0% 2000ભ7ಘᅟᆇ 15.7 32.7 19.6 37.2 19.9% 12.1% 2002ભ8ಘᅟᆇ 5.2 12.7 7.7 17.1 32.5% 25.7% 2004ભ10ಘᅟᆇ 2.9 9.7 4.6 12.0 37.9% 19.5% ᄯڳ॓ඹ 2002ભ9ಘᅟᆇ 4.7 10.4 4.3 15.1 -9.3% 31.1% 2003ભ9ಘᅟᆇ 12.8 18.2 29.7% ᄯڳԨ໰ 2003ભ6ಘᅟᆇ 2.6 11.5 4.4 14.1 40.9% 18.4% 2004ભ10ಘᅟᆇ 8.9 11.5 22.7% 2003ભྻࣿᄯᄔ 21.1% 2003ભྻ଼ࣿ࢈ᄔ 22.6% ॅಮ߬྾֥ࡨै——Ԩ໰٤ഓᅟᆇ ᄯڳԨ໰फ౨ೇ٤ഓॅұᅟᆇٹᄔნࣈഃ଼Αࠀ ᆇॸࣿၗġْԨ໰٤ഓೌٳඹۆĢBloomberg 26 ॅಮ߬྾֥ࡨै——Ԩ໰٤ഓᅟᆇď༣Đ 30Čġ70Čຣࠡcཛྷўؑࣛ342004ભ10ಘᅟᆇ 100Čຣࠡ42003ભ9ಘᅟᆇ ᄯڳԨ໰ 24Čġ76Čຣࠡcཛྷўؑࣛ562003ભ6ಘᅟᆇ 6 37 86 328 64 29 ೌٳճޮ ď࿁ਥ၍Đ 100Čຣࠡ1998ભߞപྭՎᅟᆇ 38Čġ62Čຣࠡcڂର1999ભ3ಘᅟᆇ 31Čġ69Čຣࠡcڂର2000ભ7ಘᅟᆇ 37Čġ31Čġ32Čຣࠡ/ڂର/ཛྷўؑࣛ2002ભ8ಘᅟᆇ 55Čġ45Čຣࠡcཛྷўؑࣛ2004ભ10ಘᅟᆇ ᄯڳ॓ඹ 100Čຣࠡ2002ભ9ಘᅟᆇ ᄯڳྭՎ ճޮ ٲю ճޮᄆؑ ֺ಴ ᄯڳԨ໰໻ྜॅұᅟᆇԅճޮֺ಴ 27 ॅಮ߬྾֥ࡨै——ෳᆇ࿟໻దڂᄯᆇ࿟໻ 1.651.14.55%04-10໭ަୁӮ৴๬٤ഓదڂ੖ಓ࿟໻ ೎୙ 0.07 5%04-10 ڳޝࠡక٤ഓc ަઆӖמྜ࿟໻ దڂ๦̝౥ྜ࿟ ໻ 0.1711%04-11̯ᄽ͙॓࿟໻దڂޖ઒౥ྜ࿟໻ 2.724.9%05-03 ۠इ INGcڳޝ ࠡక٤ഓదڂͺ ࠸౥ྜ࿟໻ 0.7819.9%05-04̯ᄽ͙॓࿟໻దڂۓᄼ౥ྜ࿟໻ 04ભԘࡊᆇС1.151.1525चڂ9.1%05-06ਥᄽ࿟໻దڂߙ໻ 12 ROEROE (%) 17.5 ෇ᆇ֍෇ᆇ֍ ࿁ਥ၍ ໭ڂ ߬྾߬྾ ֺ಴ֺ಴ 1.5 P/BP/B Pre- money 1.4 P/BP/B) Post- money 03ભ630ᄷᆦ෻ю ܊ԅࡊᆇС೴19.9%04-08HSBCదڂ߬໻ ࡊᆇСޙസನࡊᆇСޙസನ ԤԤڂΑڂΑ దڂదڂ ನ޷ನ޷ 28 ॅಮ߬྾֥ࡨै——ෳᆇ࿟໻దڂᄯᆇ࿟໻ď༣Đ 0.950.2715%01ભԘ ڳޝࠡక٤ഓద ڂ઒࠸౥ྜ࿟໻ 01ભࡊᆇС೴13.31.51.50.7चڂ4.6%02-12ܝ୫࿟໻దڂ୕֟ 0.911.113%02-04 ڳޝࠡక٤ഓc ݘמ࿟໻ۤະض ౨ں౥ྜ࿟໻ 2.450.421.6%03-10ڳޝࠡక٤ഓదڂ੖ಓ࿟໻ NA 7.92 ROEROE (%) 0.22 3.3 1.5 ෇ᆇ֍෇ᆇ֍ ࿁ਥ၍ ໭ڂ चڂ ߬྾߬྾ ֺ಴ֺ಴ 1.8 1.6 P/BP/B Pre- money 1.5 1.6 P/BP/B) Post- money 02ભࡊᆇС೴25%03-12 ۺಓ࿟໻cڳޝ ࠡక٤ഓۤ໭ަ ୁჿ؉෇ᆇ٤ഓ దڂ໶ྜ࿟໻ 5%99-12ڳޝࠡక٤ഓదڂ౨ں࿟໻ 03ભࡊᆇС೴17.9%04-05໭஢෇ᆇదڂಇ֟Ⴚ ࡊᆇСޙസನࡊᆇСޙസನ ԤԤڂΑڂΑ దڂదڂ ನ޷ನ޷ 29 ॠ๽ġฉ౨Ոର٤ഓ ೌٳֺ/ંγ٤ഓ٤ϣఐ୙ USA Networks/Expedia Cendant/Galileo Cendant/Cheap Tickers ᄯ޷ᄔ ଼࢈ᄔ 2001ભ၇Љ ࡊॆమ(1) X ڶ௠12ّၥ ࡊॆమ X EBIT X EBITDA X ೌద X EBIT X EBITDA X ೌద X 60.350.57.9221.810.659%7/16/2001 19.410.46.110.82.13,5062,906100%6/18/2001 51.1 ୲ྜޮᄔ/ڶ௠12ّၥ 50.1 ڂ௣ޮᄔ 2.525.1 ڂ௣ ޮᄔ $MM ୲ྜ ޮᄔ $MM 100%8/13/2001 ୲ྜޮᄔ/2001ભ၇Љ(1) ڂରٳ ৹Αै % 3,506 ୲ྜ ޮᄔ $MM ೌٳֺ/ંγ٤ഓ USA Networks/Expedia Cendant/Galileo Cendant/Cheap Tickers ڂ௣ ޮᄔ $MM ٳڂ௣ ࿥ۃԅڂ· MM ଼࢈ ໻௣ޮٌ $ ٳڂ௣ ޮᄔ MM ୙௣ ࿥ۃԅڂ· MM ଼࢈ ໻௣ޮٌ $ 0.416.750.73512.39.12015.950.6(181)40.00 2,90688.1---0.429.8204.587.660033.00 -2.2 ୙௣ MM ෻௦ൢͪԅ ֟໻ၽෳڂ· MM -10.739(145) ၇Љ ࡊႯ๠ $MM 25.0 ֟໻ၽෳ ୔ඹڂᆙڂ· MM -16.50 ਤڂ ѻޮ $ 2001Eڶ௠12ّၥ ೌٳֺ/ંγ٤ഓ USA Networks/Expedia Cendant/Galileo Cendant/Cheap Tickers ࡊॆమნࡘۤൢ໇EBITೌదࡊॆమ 42.046.610.136.4298.215.017.06.410.6222.2 165.7578.3240.0338.31,796.2149.8562.6239.1323.51,665.6 2.410.8 EBITDA 7.6 EBITDA 107.58.37.7 EBIT 3.1 ნࡘۤൢ໇ 6.15.397.4 ೌద ᅟġ2001estimates are from: Galileo-Michael Happel, Morgan Stanley, 6/20/01; Cheap Tichets-Pauul Keung, CIBC world Markets, 8/3/01 and Expedia, Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, 7/231/01 2005/4/5 ຣࠡঠؠ઱ރຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ ԛങჃ 31 ຣࠡঠԅᄷྑ໿ „ຣࠡঠΑࡊॆమٗᄷྑē࿙น൑ࢶྻඹڶࢩৎྻຏ࿙ഭ֗ԄӾٗᅹ ௲ԅ“ޮᄔ”ġ – ࿯ၮᆇ·༓ௐď࿯ၮᆇ·=ӉݪĒ࿫ೌ჋ࣛĒୣ൑ঠՎᆇСĔ࿫ ؑ჋ࣛĔୣ൑ঠՎؕႯĐ – ನ޷ďݪΛԅನ޷ޮᄔĐ „খෳēຣࠡঠࢶྻྡྷՇёէԙΥੇਤّ୲ྜဎဟݖޙᅹ႕Ϣල֗С ಓԅЕ࿓ „௶֗ēဎဟ௬౲ݖޙᄯԅൢ໇c၇ඔcԞཛྷ׎ဈۤೌదԅؠ઱ēຣ ࠡঠωϢટ۳ۚԙֱ࿸୲ྜӲ୙ԅ࿴ॆெࣣ 32 ୲ྜ࠼࿯ᄯԅຣࠡঠ༶ܬ „ ຣࠡঠூ҃ԅֱ࿸ॴ୲ྜ༓ྑտ౲ᆇࠡωயટٴСѻտ౲ᆇࠡġ ॆ๯ ჿ؉ Ⴏ௣ఆڂՊ ٤ഓᆇࠡ څՇᆇС Ӊݪ ࿫ೌ჋ࣛ ໭Ӟࣛ ნࡘ ೌࣛ ຣࠡ໇ ೒ ໭ᆇ· ڂॆ അ ෇ᆇ ಓС కᆇ ၮ࿯ ෇ᆇ ࿫ؑ჋ࣛ ؑࣛ 33 ຣࠡঠԅ෗ӽ „ၽͱف୙ઝēຣࠡঠ२ζׄШᄷྑēζੜᆇࠡԅࣿၗۤঠ຿ „ပ໔ெࣣຏē΄ٹᄔԅ୲ྜਠပΩᄥຣࠡঠ२ζēᄚပϢ෻ჼԅຣࠡঠ २ζēݧრୣຣࠡঠ२ζϢᅹ௲cϢುဈēҮನ༓ྑྦྷ࡬ୣ൑ϭ๠ͱζ ۤ໰๯ࣿ෗ӽѻ؞୲ྜԅຣࠡঠெࣣ „ݮဟݖޙޚ჋ԅ”࠙Ӟ଼۹“ԅၐसēຣࠡঠ२ζࢶྻඹڶ०ભԅᆇСؕ ႯζۤӲ୙ԅॆమζ෗ӽԄѻ „ᄥᆴຣࠡঠ२ζԅྡྷّઔԤၽဟఢۥდѻׄຣࠡۤ၇ඔົંēఢġܪ჋ ᅹ΁cᆇ·ܤ׎ဈcԞཛྷݧ၇ඔ׎ဈݧೌదēუ໔ົંᄚݖ࿵ູస჆ᅖ ྑϭ๠ͱζᄯԅ०ّ֗Ϣݖ࿵ູԛసّ „ߙोϭ๠੦໸ԅ۳ᄷྑԅྡྷϤ࡜ಾၽྡྷّޙസζٌ౨ߙोॅಮຣࠡঠ२ ζωய̼ᆇСؕႯζēॆమζۤຣࠡঠ२ζढ़ࠄၽྡྷ୯ 34 ຣࠡঠԅ෗ӽ C(___)=ભէέܤ____, ڂՊ௣࿍= ಬೌᆇ·+ รדଅॆమ ؕႯ+ൎပრ௣࿍=ᆇС <=> C(ؕႯ)+C(ൎပრ௣࿍)=C(ᆇС) <=> C(࿫ؑࣛ)+C(ୣ൑ঠՎؕႯ)+C(Ⴏ๠)+C(ൎပრ௣࿍)= C(ຣࠡ)+C(ڂର)+C(࿫ೌࣛ)+C(ୣ൑ঠՎᆇС)+C(څՇᆇСࡊᄔ ) C(ൎပრ௣࿍)=C(ڂ·)+ࡊॆమ= ໭႙ڂ·-ڂॆ+ࡊॆమ C(څՇᆇСࡊᄔ)=C(څՇᆇСၐᄔ)-ნࡘ, C(څՇᆇСၐᄔ)=ᆇ·ᄆѻ ၮ࿯ᆇ·= ڂର+࿫ೌࣛ+ୣ൑ঠՎᆇС-࿫ؑࣛ-ୣ൑ঠՎؕႯ C(ຣࠡ)=ࡊॆమ+C(ڂ·)+C(Ⴏ๠)-[C(Ӊݪ)+C(࿫ೌࣛ)+C(ୣ൑ঠՎᆇС)-C(࿫ؑࣛ) -C(ୣ൑ঠՎؕႯ)]+ნࡘ-C(څՇᆇСၐᄔ) C(ຣࠡ)=ࡊॆమ+ნࡘ-C(ၮ࿯ᆇ·)-ᆇ·ᄆѻ+໭႙ڂ·-ڂॆ+C(Ⴏ๠) ၮ࿯ ෇ᆇ కᆇ ຣࠡঠ 35 ݪΛԅನ޷ޮᄔူඬຣ „ݪΛ࡮ပನ޷ޮᄔġࠢඟԅྡྷࣖ஋Αੜඟԅྡྷࣖ஋ᄔ஋ „ၐ࿙ġຣၽԅݪΛဈဟ෇ᆇࢶСಓ႙ᄔēैఢࠢඟԅྡྷࣖ஋Ӊద࿟໻ē ੜඟუྡྷࣖ஋ަ౨ॆ๯࡜Ϣᄘྡྷࣖ஋ॴ „ੜඟԅຣࠡঠ༓ྑರဈྡྷّඬຣ৑ďఢ࿟໻ॆ৑Đēნസюࠢඟᄔտ౲ ஋ēუّნസԅڶёࠁඬຣ „ճ୲ྜٹᄔನēϢಾ߅Ӧԙ̼รࣿСಓԅຣࠡঠᄐࠄަᆙē֗ಾ༪௜ྡྷ Շԅඬຣ৑ēߜรࣿϢලನԤ౨ԅຣࠡঠ՛ඬຣӾຣၽලྡྷّನԤ౨ē ၼອަ 36 ࡨैġຣࠡঠඬຣďDCFĐ „ެՇ٤ഓA၇୙รࣿ๔ભટСಓԅຣࠡঠนġ100ฃ၍ē110ฃ၍ē120ฃ၍ē130ฃ၍ē140ฃ ၍ēರဈ15%ԅඬຣ৑ēუ๔ભຣࠡঠඬຣӾຣၽԅޮᄔޙസఢຏġ (1+15%) (1+15%)2 (1+15%)3 (1 +15%)4 (1+15%)5 ԛ0ભ ԛ1ભ ԛ2ભ ԛ3ભ ԛ4ભ ԛ5ભ ٤ഓAรࣿ๔ભટСಓԅຣࠡঠၽࠢඟԅޮᄔ = 100 110 120 130 140 + + + + = 87 83 79 74 70+ + + + = 393 ฃ၍ 37 ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ၐस „ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ಾྡྷّॆဈަ௣଼࢈ᆇ·ю· (“WACC”)ēޙസํطئ ᆴဈԅᆑဎຣࠡঠ(“UFCF”) ݧঠ຿௦Ϧᆇ·ඔ٢რԅᆇࠡԅຣᄔࣿ ࠩ໻ٹᄔԅٝ࡮d௦Ϧᆇ·ඔ٢რͧࣳ୔ඹڂڂՊcညຕڂڂՊۤ Ⴏ௣ఆd „ํطئᆴဈԅᆑဎຣࠡঠඬຣԄӾԅಾ୲ྜޮᄔēၽ߈௠Ⴏ๠ωަ ݍຣࠡ܊ԄӾڂ௣ޮᄔd „น಩ਙඬຣঠ຿Ⴏ௣ఆۤڂՊԅ௦ϦຣࠡঠēӬಾϢᄐࠄঠ຿ڂՊ ԅຣࠡঠġ – ၽϭ๠ڕसক့ڑဟ୲ྜకᆇԅֺ಴ಾ׮࿵ູ୲ྜޮᄔӉၽჺৢ – ϭ๠ڕससৢྙᄗѻڂॆדଅჿІϢ࿫؞࿵ູޮᄔē֗ࠧಾ୯Ӿ ຿ೇЦҎԞ໰ۜԅᆴဈ – Υੇၽճ੶ྡྷّ࡮඘ྜ๠ٹᄔನē༓ྑߜჼّ୲ྜԅకᆇю·ྦྷ ࡬੶ᄵެಁדଅӾҮྜ๠ 38 ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ၐस „ DCF੦໸၇Љԅ୙޷࿫؞бڶ٤ഓԅюೣ୙dӖϦדDCF၇Љ୙น10 ભd۳ੜມē؍آ୙޷ၠЩēပڑެಁԅᅖڔ໿ۤϢ௲Շ໿ྙ࡜ၠӖd „ճྡྷّစ༣࠼࿯ԅ୲ྜࠩ໻ٹᄔನēຣࠡঠඬຣד๥ඹШߜຣࠡঠד น3ّϦדġ – ԛྡྷભຣࠡঠġҶٹᄔఐӾભէࠒ೯ఐ୙޷ԅຣࠡঠ – Ҷԛ֝ભӾ၇ޙ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભ୙޷ԅຣࠡঠ – Ҷ၇ޙ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભᄍ܊ᄐӾစၙԅຣࠡঠēୣޮᄔыนᄴᄔ „ DCF੦໸ᄯඹШರဈ୙ᄯژैԅެಁēैఢġ – Ҷ1Ӿ12ၥԅຣࠡঠġ 6ၥ30ఐ – Ҷ7Ӿ12ၥԅຣࠡঠ: 9ၥ30ఐďඹШԛྡྷભ ຣࠡঠĐ 39 ํطئᆴဈԅᆑဎຣࠡঠ z ဈဟඬຣԅಾํطئᆴ ဈԅᆑဎຣࠡঠ ďUnlevered Free CashflowĐēୣޙസֺ ֥ఢဗ෍ൎವď٤಴ϵ ࢩຏྚĐ z ํطئᆴဈԅۃ࿌ಾϢ ࢩৎకᆇճຣࠡঠԅ࿵ ູd࡮඘඘ຣนޙസํ طئᆴဈຣࠡঠನēަ ݍॴॆ๯׎ဈ z ᆑဎຣࠡঠԅۃ࿌ಾྸ ࣈ҂༓ᅴަԅ࿯ၮᆇࠡ ރڅՇᆇС෇ᆇēࢶྻ ဎ୲ྜᆑဎᄆଅԅຣࠡ ঠ z ํطئᆴဈຣࠡঠಾ୲ ྜ࠼࿯ݣՎСಓԅࢶᆑ ဎᄆଅԅຣࠡঠēྙއ ࢶᄆؑٓႯ௣ఆۤൎပ რԅຣࠡঠ ؑຣю· ൎ Ԅ അ ᆇ · ࢗ ᄆ ϭ๠׎ဈ ࿯ྜೌద࿯ྜೌద EBITDAEBITDA ϢۃطئᆑဎຣࠡঠϢۃطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ ۃطئᆑဎ ຣࠡঠ ۃطئᆑဎ ຣࠡঠ ᆑဎຣࠡঠޙസವ࿉෍ᆑဎຣࠡঠޙസವ࿉෍ ၮ ࿯ ຣ ࠡ ঠ έ ܤ 40 ޙസํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ „ ၽࡊॆమԅݮ҄౨ࠩ໻యؤԸჼࢶྻޙസѻํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠġ – ߈ġભէᆇ·ᄆѻ – ߈ġ໭႙࿯ၮᆇ·ďֱᄍēަġߦԎԅ࿯ၮᆇ·Đ – ߈ġ໭႙ୣ൑ᆇСēैఢġୣ൑࿫ೌࣛc၇ؑࣛcԞཛྷഅࣛԉ – ަġ໭႙ୣ൑Ⴏ๠ēैఢġ࿫ؑഅࣛc၇ඔ׎ဈcୣ൑࿫ؑࣛԉ – ަġӲ୙ׄຣࠡ໿ԅ׎ဈēैఢġൢ໇cნࡘْۤົ၇ඔďͧࣳܪ჋ᅹ΁c Ӊݪ߈ᄔᅹ΁cݘձ൅ಞᅹ΁Đԉ – ަġഅ܊ॆ๯׎ဈēއġॆ๯׎ဈ x ď1-ပ໒അ৑Đ „ ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠϢֱ࿸కᆇݣՎԅ࿵ູē࿙ҮޙസํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠϢ༓ྑަ ݍݧ߈ԵူకᆇݣՎອڑԅຣࠡঠēैఢġڂॆc໭႙ڂ·cЪܮӞࣛ·๯ԉຣ ࠡঠ 41 ޙസᄴᄔ „ ᄴᄔġຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ճ୲ྜࠩ໻ٹᄔಾެಁ؞୲ྜݖћ༣࠼࿯ຏ௠dಬޝЀᆴᄯēᄚࢶટճ୲ྜรࣿပຫ୙޷ ઝਤભԅຣࠡঠࠩ໻၇Љď“၇Љ୙”Đdճ၇Љ୙ਤભԅຣࠡঠࢶྻᅏભࠩ໻ඬຣԄӾୣຣᄔē֗ճ၇Љ୙ྻ ܊ᄐᄠစၙԅຣࠡঠԅᆙޮᄔēඹШݮဟྡྷՇԅެಁ߅ܤޙസdუ໔၇Љ୙ྻ܊ᄐᄠစၙԅຣࠡঠԅᆙޮᄔы นᄴᄔd „ ޙസᄴᄔШဈԅֺ֥ပစ༣႙Щ৑֥ۤොѻͿ೴֥ē०ᄵֺ֥ပճ࿫ڑຂēШဈࣿອܚ޿ིd – စ༣႙Щ৑֥ġެಁၽ၇Љ୙ྻ܊ēਤભԅํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠߜྻྡྷّۺՇԅΑ৑စၙ႙Щຏ௠dუྂ၇ Љ୙ྻ܊௦Ϧํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠԅඬຣᄔࢶྻဈೌज़ԅԉΑމ೴ௐۤ٤಴ޙസԄѻd༪௜စ༣႙Щ৑ನ༓ ྑࢩৎ΄ٹᄔ୲ྜൎ҉໻ྜԅЩ୙႙Щ஍࠿c܁ڔ࠼ޖЩ୙ԅඹݪଓ჎ēලನྙྑϵࢩ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભԅ ᆑဎຣࠡঠԅ႙Щ৑d – ොѻͿ೴֥ġެಁ΄ٹᄔԅ୲ྜၽ၇Љ୙୙੬ѻ೒ൎࢶટ৻ԄԅޮٌēඹШ؞ޮٌ̟ზྡྷՇԅٹᄔͿ೴ٹ സdैఢēࢶྻ̟ზ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભԅEBITDAۤྡྷՇԅ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBITDAͿ೴ٹസdუᄵֺ֥ԅࡥຫ໿ ၽဟᄚટٔ࡬Ӳ஍ನԤԅ߬྾ٹᄔͿ೴ē֗༓ྑٹޙรࣿయؤભ܊ԅٹᄔͿ೴d TV g r FCF g FCF g r g i i i = ++ × × + = × + −= ∞∑ ( )( ) ( ) ( )( )11 1 11 TV นᄴᄔ g นစ༣႙Щ৑ r นඬຣ৑ēԉဟWACC FCFน၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભํط ئᆑဎຣࠡঠ 42 ޙസᄴᄔ „ ᄴᄔġຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ճ୲ྜࠩ໻ٹᄔಾެಁ؞୲ྜݖћ༣࠼࿯ຏ௠dಬޝЀᆴᄯēᄚࢶટճ୲ྜรࣿပຫ୙޷ ઝਤભԅຣࠡঠࠩ໻၇Љď“၇Љ୙”Đdճ၇Љ୙ਤભԅຣࠡঠࢶྻᅏભࠩ໻ඬຣԄӾୣຣᄔē֗ճ၇Љ୙ྻ ܊ᄐᄠစၙԅຣࠡঠԅᆙޮᄔēඹШݮဟྡྷՇԅެಁ߅ܤޙസdუ໔၇Љ୙ྻ܊ᄐᄠစၙԅຣࠡঠԅᆙޮᄔы นᄴᄔd „ ޙസᄴᄔШဈԅֺ֥ပစ༣႙Щ৑֥ۤොѻͿ೴֥ē०ᄵֺ֥ပճ࿫ڑຂēШဈࣿອܚ޿ིd – စ༣႙Щ৑֥ġެಁၽ၇Љ୙ྻ܊ēਤભԅํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠߜྻྡྷّۺՇԅΑ৑စၙ႙Щຏ௠dუྂ၇ Љ୙ྻ܊௦Ϧํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠԅඬຣᄔࢶྻဈೌज़ԅԉΑމ೴ௐۤ٤಴ޙസԄѻd༪௜စ༣႙Щ৑ನ༓ ྑࢩৎ΄ٹᄔ୲ྜൎ҉໻ྜԅЩ୙႙Щ஍࠿c܁ڔ࠼ޖЩ୙ԅඹݪଓ჎ēලನྙྑϵࢩ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભԅ ᆑဎຣࠡঠԅ႙Щ৑d – ොѻͿ೴֥ġެಁ΄ٹᄔԅ୲ྜၽ၇Љ୙୙੬ѻ೒ൎࢶટ৻ԄԅޮٌēඹШ؞ޮٌ̟ზྡྷՇԅٹᄔͿ೴ٹ സdैఢēࢶྻ̟ზ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભԅEBITDAۤྡྷՇԅ୲ྜޮᄔ/EBITDAͿ೴ٹസdუᄵֺ֥ԅࡥຫ໿ ၽဟᄚટٔ࡬Ӳ஍ನԤԅ߬྾ٹᄔͿ೴ē֗༓ྑٹޙรࣿయؤભ܊ԅٹᄔͿ೴d TV g r FCF g FCF g r g i i i = ++ × × + = × + −= ∞∑ ( )( ) ( ) ( )( )11 1 11 TV นᄴᄔ g นစ༣႙Щ৑ r นඬຣ৑ēԉဟWACC FCFน၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભํط ئᆑဎຣࠡঠ 43 ޙസᄴᄔ -- Ϳ೴֥ࡨै ެՇဈEBITDA ۤ EBITͿ೴ࣿޙസᄴᄔ Ϥᅇ 1) ༪႔၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷ୙ԅEBITDAݧEBIT 2) ד๥ࢶΑ٤ഓࣿ༪႔ٹᄔͿ೴ԅۦस௕޷ 3) ဈEBITDA/EBITѐྻٹᄔͿ೴ 4) ߜ၇Љ୙୙੬ԅᄴᄔඬຣӾٹᄔఐ 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 * ٹᄔͿ೴ = ᄴᄔ EBITDA ݧ EBIT 1 2 3 4 ߜᄴᄔඬຣӾٹᄔఐġ 4r)1 TVTV ofPV + = ( 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠެಁࣿၗဟ୙޷ᄯ …ӬಾොѻͿ೴֥ಾެՇၽ၇Љ୙ ୙੬ߜ୲ྜѻ೒ԅޮٌ ٹᄔఐ ٹᄔఐ 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 44 ޙസᄴᄔࡨै -- စ༣႙Щ৑֥ࡨै Ϥᅇ 1) ༪႔၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભԅํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ 2) ד๥ࢶΑ٤ഓē༪႔စ༣႙Щ৑ԅۦस௕޷ 3) ޙസ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભ6ၥ30ఐԅᄴᄔ 4) ߜᄴᄔඬຣӾٹᄔఐ 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 ߜᄴᄔნຣӾٹᄔఐ 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠެಁࣿၗဟ୙޷ᄯ ٹᄔఐ 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 g)-r g)(1* FCF UnleveredTV ( += .53r)1 TVTV ofPV + = ( ࿙นຣࠡঠԅ୙ᄯެಁē༓ ྑඬຣ3.5ભ 12/31/00 ٹᄔఐ 1/2 1 2 3 45 ޙസᄴᄔԅᅟ࿉ಹົ „ ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ճဟᄴᄔޙസׄШਖ਼ثē࿙Ү༓ྑᅟ࿉ͬᄃޙസᄴᄔൎರဈެಁ ԅۦस໿ „ ၽ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભຣࠡঠ၇Љൎݮဟԅْົᅖྑެಁ࿫ӲჾШഃ଼ – ၇Љ୙ᆫ܊ྡྷભԅೌదۤ࿯ྜॆమԅެಁ࿫؞ֱ࿸ჾШભךԅഃ଼ē֗Ϣ ࿫Ӳಾ҉ဟྜ๠ᄻ୙ϏעݧځԘભךԅഃ଼ – څՇᆇС෇ᆇ҉ဟࠀนืՇԅࠈխēއნࡘۤᆇ·ᄆѻഃ଼࿫ອӲ ᆇॸࣿၗġthat of 46 ୙ᄯژैࡨै 12/31/01 6/30/02 12/31/02 CF1 12/31/01 6/30/02 12/31/02 ᄚճ܊6ّၥຣࠡঠඬຣ 12/31/01 6/30/02 12/31/029/30/02 ެಁຣࠡঠၽ୙ᄯঠద 12/31/01 6/30/02 12/31/029/30/02 ᄚ༓ྑඬຣ3/12ભٹᄔನԤ „ ຣಬᄯēਤ୙ԅຣࠡঠ ಾћ༣ঠద୲ྜԅēӬ ၽࠩ໻ٹᄔޙസನēน ߅ܤۤάဟޙസē༓ྑ ެՇਤ୙ԅຣࠡঠಾၽ ྡྷ୙Ӳᄯԅ੶ّನԤ౨ ྡྷұ໿ঠదԅ „ ژै౨ެՇਤ୙ԅຣࠡ ঠಾၽ୙ᄯঠదēუອ ӲဟެಁӲ୙ຣࠡঠಾ ࢈ၫঠద ٹᄔನԤ ެಁຣࠡঠၽ୙ᄯঠద 47 ަ௣଼࢈ᆇ·ю·ďWACCĐ „ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠࠩ໻ඬຣನರဈԅඬຣ৑ಾ୲ྜԅަ࢈଼࢈ᆇ·ю·ďWACCĐdୣޙസ٤಴ ఢຏē E=ڂ௣ೇޮ, Ke=ڂ௣၇୙ೌ࿍৑, D=Ⴏ௣ೇޮ, t=ပ໒അ৑, Kd=٤ഓႯ๠ю· „ WACC ԉဟ٤ഓൎပ෇ᆇრďͧࣳႯ௣ఆۤڂՊĐྑௐԅݍͱ „ਤભ٤ഓԅᆇ·ࠒٲ՛ࢶટέܤēუ௜ࢅဟ٤ഓԅюЩᄻ୙d၇Љ୙ࢗಳྡྷ͎ؕႯΑ৑ࠀغēᆇ ·ᄆѻӖωயॆమ৑Ԏdसຸெࣣຏē࿫؞ਤભರဈϢලԅWACCֱࣿ࿸έܤԅᆇ·ࠒٲۤ୲ྜ ޮᄔdӬಾēუݖಾྡྷّ༶ܬԅڶёēแਬ༓ྑWACCࣿޙസڂ௣ޮᄔēရྑဈڂ௣ޮᄔࣿޙസ WACCdၽಬޝЀᆴᄯē࿫ಁՇંγؕႯΑ৑ēއ5Ĕ10ભ܊ᅏϤӒӾԅؕႯΑ৑ݧრ໻ྜ଼࢈ ؕႯഃ଼d WACC E Ke D t Kd E D = × + × − ×+ ( )1 48 ڂ·ю·ԅޙസ „ ڂ௣ю·ࢶྻඹڶᆇ·ᆇСՇޮ੦໸ԅ٤಴ďCapital Asset Pricing ModelĐ ޙസԄӾġ ڂ·ю· = ํפຢೌ࿍৑ + פຢ࿎ޮ x Beta „ ํפຢೌ࿍৑ಾᄗڳႯೌ࿍৑Ģפຢ࿎ޮಾᄗڂରೇЦЩ୙଼࢈ԅݍͱ৑غѻ ํפຢೌ࿍৑ԅϦדē൑ֱ࿸෇ᆇრ෇ᆇဟڂରೇЦนϠЪჼ඘ೇЦפຢൎྑ ௐԅ࿎ޮdBetaಾඋՇ୲ྜອճဟڂରೇЦԅϏՎ໿ē൑ֱ࿸ॴඋՇ୲ྜᆑ ಆԅפຢēဈဟޙസ෇ᆇრ෇ᆇ؞୲ྜڂରನൎྑௐԅפຢ࿎ޮ „ นޙസ΄ٹᄔ୲ྜԅBetaē೎ຕྑד๥ࢶΑ٤ഓԅBetaᄔdဎဟࢶΑ٤ഓԅ ᆇ·ࠒٲࢶટူ΄ٹᄔ୲ྜЕ࿓۳Ӗē࿙ҮྑߜࢶΑ٤ഓԅBetaᄔნസюํط ئԅBeta „ ࢶΑ٤ഓํطئBetaԅ଼࢈ᄔ/ᄯ޷ᄔဈᆳ΄ٹᄔ୲ྜ࠭ഛԅפຢຂ೴dนֱ ࿸ϭ๠פຢē༓ྑᄷ໭ࢩৎ΄ٹᄔ٤ഓԅᆇ·ࠒٲēޙസပطئBeta „ ํطئBetaď unlevered Beta)ۤပطئBeta( Levered Beta)ԅڑຂఢຏġ ďD=Ⴏ๠ēE=ڂ௣ēt=അ৑ēPref./E=ညຕڂĐ Unlevered Beta = (Pref./E)t)(D/E)(11 aLeveredBet +−+ 49 ަ௣଼࢈ᆇ·ю·ԅޙസĔࡨै ॅಮ Ⴏ๠/ ڳޥ ํطئ ٤಴: ୲ྜ Beta (1) ڂ௣ೇޮ അ৑ Beta ํطئ Beta = ပطئ Beta/(1+(Ⴏ๠/ೇޮ)(1-അ৑)) ڂ௣ю·= Beta * (ೇЦפຢ࿎ޮ) + ํפຢॆ৑ APP 0.91 151.4% 34% 0.46 ަ௣ᆇ·ю·= Ⴏ๠ю·*(Ⴏ๠/ᆇ·l) + Indo Khiat 0.91 76.9% 34% 0.60 ڂ௣ю·*(1-Ⴏ๠/ᆇ·) Advance Agro 0.82 74.7% 34% 0.55 Amcor 1.05 47.0% 40% 0.82 ެಁ: Fletcher Chall Paper 1.34 138.2% 40% 0.73 ํפຢॆ৑(2) 7.41% ೇЦݘͱ৑ 22.41% All Average: 0.63 ೇЦפຢ࿎ޮ(3) 15.00% Ⴏ๠ю·(4) 8.00% അ৑ 33.00% ᆇ·ࠒٲ Ⴏ๠/ അ܊ ަ௣଼࢈ํطئ ᆇ· ပطئ Ⴏ๠ю· ᆇ·ю·Beta (Ⴏ๠/ڂ௣) (Ⴏ๠/(Ⴏ๠+ڂ௣)) Beta ڂ௣ю· 0.63 0.0% 0.0% 0.6 16.9% 5.4% 16.9% 0.63 11.1% 10.0% 0.7 17.6% 5.4% 16.4% 0.63 25.0% 20.0% 0.7 18.5% 5.4% 15.9% 0.63 42.9% 30.0% 0.8 19.6% 5.9% 15.5% 0.63 66.7% 40.0% 0.9 21.1% 6.4% 15.2% 0.63 100.0% 50.0% 1.1 23.2% 6.9% 15.1% 0.63 150.0% 60.0% 1.3 26.4% 7.4% 15.0% 0.63 233.3% 70.0% 1.6 31.7% 7.9% 15.0% 0.63 400.0% 80.0% 2.3 42.3% 8.4% 15.1% 0.63 900.0% 90.0% 4.4 74.0% 8.9% 15.4% ᅟ: (1) Source: US Equity Beta Book, Barra and Bloomberg as of 11/7/97 (2) Assumption based on US$ Chinese Govt 2006 bond yield as of 11/7/97 (3) Source: CICC Estimate based on inherent startup risks (4) Based on company data 50 ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ԅঠё෍ ْೌదੜ຅ົ ၇Љೌద ნࡘcఆٝю·c໇೒׎ဈc ໻ჿރڕस׎ဈԉ ၇Љю·/׎ဈ߈ ڂ௣ю·ē അ܊Ⴏ๠ю·ēطئ ަޮ଼࢈ᆇ·ю· ၇Љ୙ྻ܊ຣࠡঠԅޮᄔ ᄴᄔ Ԅѻၽॆ๯cൎԄഅ஍ԅॆమ ࡊॆమ ნࡘൢ໇cࡊॆ๯׎ဈc ᆇ·ᄆѻc ໭႙࿯ၮᆇ· Ըჼົ ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ ୲ྜޮᄔ ࡊႯ๠ ڂ௣ޮᄔ ަ/߈ Ԅѻ ߈ Ԅѻ Ԅѻ 51 ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ԅည௬Ԥ „ ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ԅညԤġ – Ϣಾ௜ࢅဟॅಮݖޙޚৃē֗ಾֱ࿸ճรࣿԅ၇Љ – ೓ೇЦի୙έܤۤׄ࠼ޖ࿙ഭԅ࿵ູࠀ౲ – ѕఊᆇࠡԅನ޷ޮᄔω Ҷᆙ඘ࢩГྜ๠ēಾसৢ౨ᆫ෻౟ԅֺ֥ – ࢶྻ̼࠼࿯Ⴞ৛ࠒۦӾ੦໸ᄯēωயပᅙဟ༹დટ႙ࠩ୲ྜޮᄔԅӎಠ – ࢶྻ҉सӖտ೴؏ၶԅெࣣēලನ۳ఘ྾ၽّఆԨગ౨ࠩ໻࿫ဈ „ ຣࠡঠඬຣ֥ԅ௬Ԥġ – ٹᄔࠒڴճဟެಁ۳ਖ਼ث – ԄӾٹᄔԅֳถࢶટ۳Ӗē࿙Үဈාပຫ IPOٹᄔ VS M&Aٹᄔ ԛ๔Ⴣ 53 Ϣලԅ੦໸ „ ဎဟߙो੦໸ંԅϢලē࿙Ү੦໸ࠒٲྙϢලēຏੋಾങᄵᅖྑԅ੦໸ġ ᄵफ ંԅ ᅖྑԅ೛ѻ ᅖྑԅ೛ѻ DCF੦໸ ٹᄔ ೌదރю·၇Љ೴ඬຣ৑ۤොѻͿ೴ ํطئᆑဎຣࠡঠ ၼకᆇ੦໸ ညܤᆇ·ࠒٲ ϢලႯ๠ю·ēࠒٲۤ୴ၟ ؕႯΑ৑cЪႯᄗγ ωٳ੦໸ ିٹωٳԅۦस໿ ωٳඨࣛē ωٳ໘ල໒࿫ۤჼۦю· ႙܈/ൢͪē ੦થؕႯΑ৑ ົંకᆇ੦໸ ିٹົંפຢ / కᆇટॏ ົંႯ๠ю·, ࠒٲۤ୴ၟ ЪႯᄗγcೌ࿍৑ „ ྡྷ໔੦໸ࢶྻಾྻ౨੦໸ԅࠒۦ 54 ೌނࢶΑ٤ഓ ᆇॸ ྜ๠࠰ᄏԸА ࠩ໻ࢶΑ٤ഓ ᄗγד๥ ߙोDCF੦໸ ူ٤ഓඉৢ ᅖྑެಁူࠒৢ ༉؟੦໸ ד๥ၔݖ࿐ ௲Շᆫᄴ ޮٌ াས ௲ՇѺϤ ޮٌ௕޷ ၇াས ူ٤ഓඉৢ ೎ұ٤ࢗ֟໻ٹᄔՇޮԅᅖྑϤᅇ 1. Ⴧไ٤ഓԅྜ๠ڕसຬඨۤϭ๠ۢസ඘ ຂ – ௲Շ੦໸ჼ඘ࣟޯ 2. ༹დྜ๠ԅᅖྑ௚Վ࿙ഭ – ௲Շ੦໸ᄯ ԅڑߏέ२(key driver)ۤઝၽ০ހڑຂ 1. ᆇ·ೇЦڑᅟઊ໔ᄗγ – ၽ੦໸ᄯပൎ඘ຣ 2. ఢڴટდӾࢶΑ٤ഓԅ੦໸ēပᅙဟճkey driverပٗۚԅ̼ไ 3. ူ٤ഓԅ໻ྜד๥ಝտࠩ໻ٮඹďᅟ࿉ Chinese wallĐ 55 ೎ұ٤ࢗ֟໻ٹᄔ༓ࢩৎԅՇ໿ܤ࿙ഭ ೎ұ٤ࢗ֟໻ٹᄔ ٤ഓڃಹ zಾ׮ပগఆ໰׻ԅ႙Щڃಹ zટ׮ပ໒ԙߜᄍҎӒٓ෇ᆇ რ ෇ᆇრճ٤ഓԅࢡ֥ z෇ᆇრճ٤ഓൎ ၽ໻ྜಾ׮ပପ ۚ�ପߎ ᆇСᄩ२ zಾ׮ͧۃϢ॥ᆇС zಾ׮ӉၽݧပؕႯ ჼ඘ڂೇܬࡂ z౨ೇನݯ༪႔ಾ ׮ပॆ z ྡྷ໔ํ֥२ܤԅ࿙ഭࢶટճ֟໻СಓᄷӖ࿵ູēྙ༓ၽ೎ұ֟໻ԅٹᄔᄯަྻࢩৎ 56 M&A ٹᄔד๥ؠऋ „ M&A ٹᄔד๥ᅖྑڑᅟ – ܰڂΑैྻރճۦω܊٤ഓԅࣅڂΑैďۃڂରճޮԅ߬྾Đ – ճ߬྾ഀֺԅϭ๠࿵ູďਤڂ࿴ॆԅ႙܈/ൢͪēႯ௪ିމԅ࿵ູĐ – ޮᄔҗႏ/๮ೄď໘Ը໒࿫Đ „ ܰڂΑैྻރဎҮԄѻԅճۦω܊٤ഓԅࣅڂΑैߜࢅՇॆ࿍דଅ „ ਤڂ࿴ॆԅ႙܈/ൢͪྻރٹᄔͿ೴ԅ႙ަ/߈౲ߜࢅՇॆ࿍ԅӖ໌ġޛͧࣳ߬྾ ճ࿴ॆԅ࿵ູēྙͧࣳᆇ·ೇЦԅֱ࿫ēैఢೇ࿴৑ԅᄷٹ ߙ੦ԅڶёۤᅟ࿉ಹົ ԛঢჃ 58 ನ޷̝૦ ᄷᆦ ౨ೇ ѺϤDD ٲߙ“ᆇС ༪႔”੦໸ ѺϤֺ̣ ֺ̣Љസ ௲Շֺ̣ Kick-off ྜ๠ DD ಌޙ