2018年中国奢侈品市场研究（中英）-贝恩

中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎整体销售额保持20%的健康增速，不同品牌之间差异巨大本作者：布鲁诺·兰纳（BrunoLannes），贝恩公司全球合伙人、大中华区消费品和零售业务领导成员，常驻上海。©本册著作权归贝恩公司所有中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎1摘要 2018年，中国奢侈品市场连续第二年实现20%增长 消费回流、对千禧一代的重视、数字化发展，以及中国中产阶级的不断壮大，令一众品牌获益匪浅 尽管总体增势强劲，但品牌之间差异巨大，领先品牌增长超过25%，落后者则低于10%；成功品牌的致胜战略为未来发展提供借鉴、指明方向 中国奢侈品市场势如破竹，2018年成功延续了2017年20%的惊人增速(见图1)。它犹如一台强大的机器，四台引擎完美配合，马力全开。超过70%的千禧一代示对财务前景持乐观态度，81%预计收入将有所上升。引擎1：消费回流在中国政府下调进口关税、对灰色市场加强管控，各大奢侈品牌持续调整国内外市场价差等因素的共同作用下，越来越多的中国消费者选择在内地市场购买奢侈品，而不是像过去那样为了购买更便宜的产品，前往香港、首尔、东京和一些欧洲城市。2018年，中国消费者在内地的奢侈品消费比例由2015年的23%上升到27%。预计，到2025年将达到50%(见图2)。但这并不意味着中国消费者将减少在海外市场的消费。目前，中国消费者的奢侈品消费占到全球市场份额的33%(见图3)。中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎2020406080100%И֢ࢃોৱ⼪⚷սࢃો࢑ଳূӣͧ%ͫьࠬҫͨ2011410201576020188502025EИ֢ӄ֪ࢃોࢁיࢃો160029232750И֢ӄ֪ࢃોԩࡁͧ%ͨࡤચ֚ࡗࣩһି஫ԇ֛ॹૡՌһऺୠѹ䍦৸٠ࣱ֪ॡݗॻўٚઁݦ૏މߛ࢛͹ાیҶࣱ⼪⚷սܕճͺކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤ图2: 消费回流的趋势将在未来几年延续050010001500200020111070121140131160И֢ӄ֪⼪⚷ս١֫ͧьҫыࡇ٠ͨ1411401511301611701714201817002%20%20%CAGR(17–18)CAGR(16–17)CAGR(11–16)•2018ٶӄ֪⼪⚷ս١֫ڌডд2017ٶۖыङ׌େԍע•ԝ䰃▁іڕஔ֢ӄ١֫Շيͫ��ଋԾ▲ٶङ١֫׍୸ӘЦҵ଑��ं଑▲৩ѽ帖ࣣ•׭㓬ռ६׌ૻڼиࣕ㓬ռ६ͧ���ڍ৒дսঝӇٵ੫ङ૟Ԏੌ䎯ґ㔴ࡨ͹זՠٶ׍୸ࣤљ৏▲ࡍࣤ݅঑૏މߛ࢛͹ાیИ֢⼪⚷սܕճͺાیҶࣱ⼪⚷սܕճͺކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤ图1: 在千禧一代和女性品类的推动下，2018年中国内地奢侈品市场保持了20%的增速中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎3020406080100%Ҷࣱ⼪⚷ս١ܷ֫ͫࢃોৱ֢书Ӧӣͧ%ͫьࠬҫͨ20001160201019%1670201531%24502018ࠬࡳ18%২֢22%ޙߎ10%З֡33%оࡳҿѕ֢؟�11%Ѝउҿѕ֢؟�7%26001%33%4%19%8%2%2%CAGR(15–18)CAGR(10–15)CAGR(00–10)ࡨ͹ंй୊ऀ֚ਝмҵͫ՟ূӣࡁ҆ۈઋЉӱ100%ͺ૏މߛ࢛͹ાیҶࣱ⼪⚷սܕճͺކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤ图3: 2018年中国消费者的奢侈品消费总额占全球市场份额的33%引擎2：千禧一代23至38岁的消费者对奢侈品不仅有消费意愿，也有足够的消费能力。汇丰银行发布的《砖瓦之上：住房的意义》调查报告中指出，中国千禧一代的住房拥有率高达70%，是美国的两倍（见图4）。父母的资助是他们购买时尚奢侈品的资金来源之一。此外，他们对奢侈品非常了解，对高级时装和运动服饰跨界融合这样的创新潮流趋之若鹜。他们是奢侈品牌运动品类的消费主力军，典型产品包括巴黎世家2017年发布的TripleS系列运动鞋，直到2018年仍然热度不减，以及路易威登携手Supreme联名发布的一系列配饰，后者是植根于滑板文化的时尚品牌。与前几代人不同，千禧一代更痴迷于他们眼中的“炫酷”元素，而非品牌本身或产品定价。对他们来说，重要的是创新，而不是折扣。他们热衷于社交媒体，喜欢在网上自由发表观点。与其他年龄段表现相同的是，千禧一代中女性的奢侈品消费同样超出同龄男性。2018年，化妆品这一传统女性品类增长超过25%，而由男性消费者主导的腕表品类增长不到10%。中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎457%38%3%2%કаݿظ⻺⚇ռࣩઞଟ޼ࡼ��ԝ䰃▁іѺۑ܉ޥࢴͣ����ͤЖъݗҴռ࢞તԈҾє࢛ࠟઞԈ26ٴ֭38%2831414670343535ਸ਼֢஋৻୅২֢ࡣ֢З֡ࢫםӯоԆܳם௛ߛ੼о׎੼ւ૏މߛ࢛͹୐߶ू९Иڶչ਒઒ङू९ܕճ߽ͧߎ#4534դИ֢Ԟ䰃▲їࢃોৱͨͺࡍЙ2017ٶ2߃Շ٢ङ澦ृࣻФЇ͹ѻ۰ङ۞У澧ܕճͺӣߤ٤ܕճͺાیӣߤ图4: 中国千禧一代对奢侈品有充足的消费能力中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎5引擎3：数字化发展作为中国奢侈品销售的第三个增长引擎，数字化同时涵盖了电子商务和基于数字化平台的消费者互动。其中，消费者互动方面已取得很大进步，而电子商务领域则进展甚微（尽管交易量颇为庞大）。线上渠道的奢侈品销售额在2018年实现了27%的增长，占奢侈品销售总额的10%（见图5），但这一波增长仍然主要受化妆品品类驱动，其他品类的线上渗透率依然很低。在国内的奢侈品市场中，有四类线上渠道较为活跃（见图6）。品牌自营渠道（如Hermes.com.cn），也就是我们所谓的品牌官网：品牌掌握最终控制权，提供正价产品。平台旗舰店（如天猫旗舰店、微店等）：品牌拥有一定控制权，同时也可以利用平台带来的稳定流量。购物平台（如京东Toplife、天猫奢侈品频道等）：品牌外包大流量渠道的建立和运营工作。名品折扣网（如寺库、魅力惠）：主要为打折出售的奢侈品提供销售平台。2018年，越来越多的品牌选择与领先的电商平台建立合作，扩大线上业务覆盖，还有一些则继续努力发展品牌官网。20151130161170171420И֢ӄ֪١֫⼪⚷ս୦։ௌܷͧ૆б࢑ଳӦӣͫьҫͨ18িЇিЈ170027%17%20%689100500100015002000CAGR(17–18)ࡨ͹িЇ୦։юԕܬؒސিЇ࢑ଳ�૏މߛ࢛͹ކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤিЇ୦։ԩࡁͧ%ͨ图5: 线上渠道的奢侈品销售额增速依然快于线下门店，但整体占比仍处于较低水平——除化妆品品类以外中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎62018年，大型交易活动也颇为活跃，亮点包括：•京东和LCatterton对寺库进行1.75亿美元投资•历峰集团（Richemont）收购YooxNet-a-Porter（YNAP）•YNAP与阿里巴巴建立战略合作关系•Farfetch并购京东旗下Toplife如此密集的交易活动催生了三类新兴生态系统：围绕品牌官网建立的生态系统，以及同阿里巴巴或京东合作建立的生态系统（见图7）。毕竟，这是一个“全渠道”至上的时代。随着时间的推移，奢侈品牌越来越了解如何整合线上线下销售、如何利用数字互动提升门店进客率，以及如何改善店内体验。成功的品牌会不断总结和汲取全渠道方面的经验和教训。目前，他们正在为实体店的布局调整进行周密规划，并日益关注大型门店管理和可比门店增长。爱马仕（Hermès）在北京举办的“SilkMix”活动就是品牌“全渠道”举措的一个生动案例：快闪店和微信小程序的创新组合既提升了品牌公众号流量，也吸引了数以千计的消费者参与现场活动。ўߡࠫٴռ࢞ܰӱԂڅלռ࢞ܰӱԂڅسș�ंս࣎ਘПڏॹչ���৆ੈș�ӯऀ૆࣒ٵՖؚࡶ୏���ङգޞͫս࣎҉ޛґ���ܴثҿিЇ୹ڃङ௤���ݏӲԃș�ं૆࣒ٵՖڏॹչ৆ੈș�ս࣎ؼ஼வગઋչфս���ুՠݕ҈۞੿ș�դսܑۻৠॻ୦։⼪⚷սͫٷث���ୂӣ঩ӧչфսݕ҈ૻםܑۻռ࢞ؑযٴՕݷ参ڂકࢢٴՕգռ۲ۜয࠳џୂӣ֌սչս࣎߄ܑۻםୂӣ֌սݕ҈ܑۻ۪љࢁיџࠀӟ։5032ռ࢞ؑয3416ם䗼ݷ参ڂ4830ڲڂ2011ם䗼⻺⚇ռ஗ଂ1410цАToplifeٵՖڐي▲пҏ୦ࡴԈ2222Net-a-Porter؄ਭۅܑۻ�ҏ୦ࡴԈஒޞܓ૆�ܑۻԃچם2323YooxԕխЉԕխս࣎ރ୏ԗ⽈սࡲଂஒޞܓ૆�ܑۻԃچם3131Farfetch7050ㅓٿয4727欓Ԃ㖥4225։ռѪ֨ࢁיன։џࠀङׂॅЇ��ݕ҈ܑۻ�ҏ୦ࡴԈࡨ͹۬ਙ2019ٶ2߃ͺ৏ઋރ݇ԕܬݕՃङһઋ76З⼪⚷ս࣎ͧ20Зԗ⽈ս࣎澝26Зਐ੮չ࣯ؗս࣎澝30З߆੸澝枉㇎չԕੲս࣎ͺюԕܬ֢ӄিЇ࢑ଳͨ૏މߛ࢛͹ս࣎ઘળͺކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤ图6: 在国内的奢侈品市场上，有四类线上渠道较为活跃中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎7૏މߛ࢛͹ાیҸ՛ռ࢞ؑয图7: 近期密集的交易活动在国内市场催生了三类新兴的奢侈品线上生态系统中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎8引擎4：迅速壮大的中产阶级贝恩公司在世界经济论坛上发布的研究指出，到2027年，中国中产阶级的规模将进一步扩大，约占家庭总数的65%。所有迹象均表明，中国城市人口的人均收入正在不断上升。中产阶级群体的迅速壮大，将源源不断地为奢侈品行业带来首次购买奢侈品的买家。各品牌业绩差异解析尽管中国奢侈品市场的整体销售势不可挡，但并非所有品牌高层都能露出胜利者的笑容。随着收入的不断增长，中国消费者在奢侈品上的开销持续走高，但他们的口味也日益挑剔。部分品牌比其他品牌更善于迎合消费者需求，也因此，形成了品牌间良莠不齐的业绩表现，这与2017年的观察结果颇为相似。事实上，有些品牌已经连续两年取得卓越进步，另一些则恰恰相反，业绩连年下滑。这样两极分化的对比有多强烈呢？我们可以看到，2018年收入跻身前20的时尚奢侈品牌中，增长超过25%与低于10%的品牌之比约为1:2（见图8）。中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎9׍୸ࣤ�>25%�׍୸ࣤ10%–25%׍୸ࣤ�<10%ս࣎ރ୏ܷͫ׍୸ࣤӦӣЗ֡ଵଞӸ20לݿظ⻺⚇ռ࢞Ў働਽ࢻ৩৕یࣛ2017–18ٶ֢ӄ١֫׍୸ࣤ͹20%ૹ૚ݤ؀Ԗਗଵոड׼ঀъਗଵѨԖ਑ؙࡲଂԅڼуռІݰͧୈڂ㷫ॅޟݰոռ࢞ڤઊ⸎ૼͧ⩍ڕࡉڿӮ࣐੐ࠆক࡛Ѩԍͧۺࡤݺ࣮ளށࣩ֧ԡক֋ۉޯ૏މߛ࢛͹ކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤ图8: 各类奢侈品牌2018业绩表现层次不齐，市场领先者致胜有道我们围绕品牌业绩成果进行了更深入的调查，试图找出造成如此巨大差异的原因。经过研究，我们发现：首先，成功的品牌往往通过数字化营销和社交媒体红人营销深化消费者渗透，较为常见的是利用更年轻化、休闲化的产品系列吸引千禧一代。2015年至今，中国前40大奢侈品牌的数字化营销预算几乎翻了一番，其中有40–70%用于微信（见图9）。这些领先品牌通过微信识别并锁定目标客户，进行线上线下销售（见图10）。例如，雅诗兰黛（EstéeLauder）的客户可以通过微信预约面部护理，蔻驰（Coach）的客户则可以通过社交媒体平台领取优惠券并管理会员卡。我们在成功品牌身上发现的第二大致胜要素是加快产品上新和门店橱窗更新速度，积极迎合千禧一代对新潮事物的追求。最后还有一个区别要素：规模越大，知名度越高的品牌正在从规模化经济中获得优势。随着各项费用的上涨，包括租金、组织营销活动、与KOL合作，导致品牌在中国市场经营的成本也不断攀升。大型品牌的规模优势逐步凸显。中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎10фսҒێ�100И֢୦୏ӹ40ם⼪⚷ս࣎ڳҒҸѨ՚ԅਈԩࡁͧ%ͨ୹ڃҒێ�88ؚۯ߆ԇ�80ڳҒऄ֌߆ԇОحէङԅਈ�75ս࣎Ғێ�65ѫմ঒ࣲ48૏މߛ࢛͹ڳҒͺાیӣߤ图10: 各大品牌利用微信识别并锁定目标客户，线上线下同时实现销量提升20152018Ѯ৏ੈ୦ރ؁ԗੈ୦60%–70%2018ڳҒ40%–70%ҿѕރ؁ٵՖੈ୦ݵӟূӣރ؁ԗੈ୦ݵӟূӣ૏މߛ࢛͹ս࣎ઘળͺކࣣू९ͺાیӣߤ图9: 各大品牌对线上渠道和社媒平台加大投资规模，充分利用微信平台中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎11未来展望未来，这些“增长引擎”也有可能失去动力，受一系列不确定因素影响，例如中国经济增长可能会在可控范围内逐步放缓，房价可能会逐渐趋于稳定，从而导致中国家庭的“正财富效应”可能会有所减弱。但无论如何，2019年对各大奢侈品牌来说依然充满希望。奢侈品行业仍将保持健康运行，当然，增速继续维持在20%难度较大，预计将会稍微放缓。2017和2018年那些强大的“正能量”将继续引领中国奢侈品市场的发展：据预测，中国政府有可能进一步下调进口关税，鼓励国内消费并降低增值税率；海关部门可能将进一步加强对旅客和包裹的监察，对专门从事海外带货转卖国内消费者的“代购大军”，采取更为严格的审查机制；而各大奢侈品牌将继续调整国内外市场价差。中国的千禧一代不会失去对奢侈品的购买兴趣或消费意愿。瑞银（UBS）近期的一项调查表明，71%的千禧一代表示对财务前景持乐观态度，81%预计收入将有所上升。与此同时，中国中产阶级将继续发展壮大。中国奢侈品市场的增长引擎12中国千禧一代不会失去对奢侈品的兴趣或购买意愿。也许驱动中国奢侈品市场增长的引擎会存在一定变数，但目前看来，这四大引擎还未出现失速现象。SharedAmbition,TrueResults贝恩公司是一家全球领先的管理咨询公司，致力于为全球各地的商界领袖提供咨询建议。贝恩公司专注于为客户提供战略、运营、组织、兼并收购以及信息技术等方面的咨询服务。我们针对每个客户的自身问度身定制切实可行的，并在合作过程中向客户传授相关技能以确保变革顺利贯彻。贝恩公司成立于1973年，目前在全球36个国家设有57个办事处。我们具备深厚的专业知识，客户亦来自各个行业和经济领域。贝恩公司客户的业绩超出市场平均水平四倍之多。是什么使我们在竞争激烈的咨询行业中脱颖而出贝恩公司坚信管理咨询公司发挥的作用不应局限于提供建议方案的范畴。我们置身客户立场思考问题，专注于建议方案的落地。我们基于执行效果的收费模式有助于确保客户与贝恩的利益捆绑，通过与客户通力合作，以发掘客户的最大潜力。我们的战略落地/变革管理®（ResultsDelivery®）协助客户发展自身的能力，而我们的“真北”（TrueNorth）价值观指导我们始终致力于为我们的客户、员工和社会实现目标。贝恩公司大中华区1993年，贝恩公司成为在北京成立办事处的首家全球管理咨询公司，目前拥有北京、上海和香港三个办事处。贝恩公司在华的业务规模遍布40多个城市，涉及30多个行业。贝恩公司大中华区咨询团队已近两百人，兼具丰富的国内及国际工作经验。欲了解更多信息，请查询www.bain.cn或在以下平台关注我们:What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?Salesaregrowingatahealthy20%rate,butnotallbrandsarecelebrating.ThisreportwasauthoredbyBrunoLannes,aBain&CompanypartnerbasedinShanghaiandamemberofthefirm’sRetailandConsumerProductspractices.Copyright©2019Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?1AtaGlance It was the second year in a row of 20% growth for luxury goods in China. Brands benefited from repatriated purchases, a focus on millennials, increased digitalization and China’s expanding middle class. Although growth was robust overall, some companies outperformed with growth rates in excess of 25%, while others lagged with less than 10% growth. The winners’ strategies offer clear lessons for the future. China’sluxurygoodsmarketishummingalongnicely,withasecondstraightyearof20%growthin2018(seeFigure1).Thinkofitasapowerfulmachinerunningonfourenginesoperatinginperfectalignment.Morethan70%ofmillennialshaveapositivefinancialoutlook;81%ofthemexpecttheirincometoincrease.Engine1:RepatriationTheChinesegovernment’sreductioninimportdutiesandstrictercontrolsovergraymarkets—combinedwithbrands’effortstonarrowthepricegapwithoverseasmarkets—haveledmoreChi-neseconsumerstomaketheirluxurypurchasesinChina,insteadoftravelingtopreviousbargainlocalessuchasHongKong,Seoul,TokyoandcitiesinEurope.Chineseconsumersmade27%oftheirluxurypurchasesinChinain2018,upfrom23%in2015,andweanticipatethatthissharewillincreaseto50%by2025(seeFigure2).Butthisdoesn’tmeanthatChineseconsumersarebuy-inglessabroad.LuxuryspendingbyChineseshoppersnowrepresents33%oftheglobalmarket(seeFigure3).What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?2020406080100%ChannelbreakdownforChineseluxurygoodsspending(€billions)2011412015762018852025EMainlandChinapurchasesOverseaspurchases16029232750Domesticspendingshare(%)WhyChineseshoppersarebuyinglocallyinsteadofoverseasImportdutyreductionsStrictercontrolovergraymarketsPriceharmonizationSources:BainLuxuryGoodsWorldwideMarketStudy,2018;BainanalysisFigure2: The repatriation of spending will continue in the coming years05010015020020111071211413116MainlandChinaluxurymarket(RMBbillions)14114151131611717142181702%20%20%CAGR(17–18)CAGR(16–17)CAGR(11–16)•Afterspectaculargrowthin2017,momentumremainedstrong•MillennialscontributedalmostalloftheincrementalgrowthofChina’sluxurymarketoverthepastyear•Categoryrebalancingcontinued,withwomen’sspendingoutpacingmen’sHighlightsNote:CAGRsarebasedonconstantexchangeratesSources:BainLuxuryGoodsWorldwideMarketStudy,2018;BainanalysisFigure1: The domestic luxury market posted 20% growth in 2018, driven by millennials and womenWhat’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?3020406080100%Globalluxurymarketbyconsumernationality(€billions)2000116201019%167201531%2452018European18%American22%Japanese10%Chinese33%OtherAsian11%Restofworld7%2601%33%4%19%8%2%2%CAGR(15–18)CAGR(10–15)CAGR(00–10)Note:Segmentsdonotaddupto100%duetoroundingSources:BainLuxuryGoodsWorldwideMarketStudy,2018;BainanalysisFigure3: Chinese spending represented 33% of the global luxury market in 2018Engine2:MillennialsConsumersaged23to38arewillingtospendonluxurybrands,andfinanciallyabletodoso.Fully70%ofChina’smillennialsowntheirownhomes—twicetherateofUSmillennials,accordingtoHSBC’sBeyondtheBricksstudy(seeFigure4).Andtheycangetfundingfromtheirparentsiftheywanttobuyluxurygoods.Moreover,theseyoungconsumersarewellinformedaboutluxuryandeagertoembraceinnovativetrends,suchastheconvergenceofhighfashionandsportswear.MillennialsarethebigmarketforluxurysportswearproductslikeBalenciaga’sTripleSsneaker,whichwasintro-ducedin2017andmaintaineditspopularitythroughout2018,andaccessoriescocreatedbyLouisVuittonandSupreme,afashionbrandwithrootsinskateboarding.Unlikeoldergenerations,millennialsaremoreheavilyinfluencedbywhattheyconsidertobecoolthanbybrandnamesorproductpricing.Theyvaluenewnessmorethandiscounts.Theyrelyonsocialmediaandfreelysharetheiropinionsonline.Liketheircounterpartsinallagegroups,millennialwomenbuymoreluxurygoodsthanmendo.Cosmetics,atraditionallyfemalecategory,grewbymorethan25%in2018,forexample,whilewatches,apredominantlymalecategory,grewbylessthan10%.What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?457%38%3%2%SourceoffundingforluxuryfashionpurchasesMillennialhomeownershippercentageSelf-madefundsBrandsponsorshipOtherParents’funds26Average38%2831414670343535UKUAEUSFranceChinaAustraliaCanadaMalaysiaMexicoSources:GoldStandardResearchCenterandTencentstudy(n=4,534Chinesemillennialconsumers);BeyondtheBricks,HSBC,February2017;analystreports;BainanalysisFigure4: Chinese millennials are financially able to spend on luxury brandsWhat’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?5Engine3:DigitalizationThethirdenginepoweringluxurysalesinChina,digitalizationcoversbothe-commerceandcon-sumerengagementthroughdigitalplatforms.Therehasbeenmuchprogressintermsofengagingcustomers,butlittleprogressonthee-commercefront(despiteplentyofactivity).Onlineluxurysalesincreasedby27%in2018toreach10%oftotalluxurysales(seeFigure5),butthisgrowthisstilldrivenbycosmetics,whileonlinepenetrationinothercategoriesremainsverylow.Fourtypesofonlinechannelshavebeenactiveinthedomesticluxurymarket(seeFigure6).Brand-ownedchannelslikeHermes.com.cn—werefertothemas“brand.com”—givecompaniesultimatecontrolandtheabilitytochargefullprice.CooperatorchannelslikeTmallflagshipstoresandWeChatcommercegivebrandssomecontrolwhileallowingthemtobenefitfromtheplatform’ssteadyflowoftraffic.AggregatorssuchasJD.com’sToplifeandTmall’sLuxuryPavilionenablebrandstoout-sourcetheresponsibilityofbuildingandoperatinghigh-trafficchannels.Finally,luxuryverticalsitessuchasSecooandMei.commakeitpossibletomovegoodsatadiscount.In2018,morebrandslookedforwaystoexpandtheironlinepresencethroughcollaborationswithleadinge-commerceplatforms,whileothersmaintainedafocusontheirbrand.com.20151131611717142MainlandChinaluxurysalesbychannel(RMBbillions)18OnlineOffline17027%17%20%68910050100150200CAGR(17–18)Note:OnlinesalesincludeofficialonlinechannelsonlySource:BainanalysisOnlinesales(%)Figure5: Online luxury sales outgrew the overall market in 2018, but online penetration remains low—except in cosmeticsWhat’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?6Itwasalsoayearofheavydealactivity,includingthefollowinghighlights:•JD.comandLCatterton’s$175millioninvestmentinSecoo•Richemont’sacquisitionofYooxNet-a-Porter(YNAP)•YNAP’sstrategicpartnershipwithAlibaba.com•ThemergerofJD.com’sToplifewithFarfetchAsaresultofthisintensedealmaking,weseethreetypesofecosystemsemerging:thosecenteredaroundabrand.comandthosebuiltincollaborationwitheitherAlibaba.comorJD.com(seeFigure7).Itis,afterall,anomnichannelworld.Aseachyearpasses,luxurybrandslearnmoreabouthowtoin-tegrateonlineandofflinesales,howtousedigitalengagementcampaignstogetcustomersintotheirstoresandhowtoimprovethein-storeexperience.Winningbrandsaretakingtheseomnichannellessonstoheart.Forinstance,theyarethoughtfullyadjustingtheirphysicalfootprint,withincreasingemphasisonlargerstoresandlike-for-likegrowth.The“SilkMix”eventbyHermèsinBeijingwasagreatexampleofatrueomnichannelinitiative:aninnovativecombinationofapop-upstorewithaPricelevelMorebrandcontrolLessbrandcontrol•Builtandoperatedbybrands•Strongbrandcontroloverthestoreandtheaggregatortrafficleveraged•Builtandoperatedbyaggregators•Brandinputoninter-facedesignandproductportfolio•SalesofluxuryproductswithlargediscountsonselectseriesanditemsBrandownedCooperatorsAggregatorsLuxuryverticalsFullpriceDiscountsonselectitemsandbrandsAllitemsgenerallydiscountedorsoldattheoverseasretailprice5032Brand.com3416Tmallflagship4830WeChatcommerce2011TmallPavilion1410JDToplifeSomepromotions/salesdrivenbyplatform2222Net-a-PorterSeasonaldiscounts/promotionsFlashsaleswithheavydiscounts2323YooxwithwithoutNumberofbrandscosmeticsChannelsFlashsaleswithheavydiscounts3131Farfetch7050Secoo4727Mei.com4225VIP.comOverseasretailpriceswithdiscounts/promotionsNotes:AsofFebruary2019;analysisincludes76luxurybrands(20cosmetics,26watchesandjewelry,30lifestyle,shoesandhandbags);onlydomesticonlinechannelsincludedSources:Brandinterviews;BainanalysisFigure6: Four types of online channels were active in the domestic luxury marketWhat’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?7Source:Bain&CompanyBrand.comFigure7: Recent deals among online platforms have led to the emergence of three online ecosystems for luxury brands in ChinaWhat’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?8WeChatmini-programthatincreasedtraffictotheHermèsofficialaccountandattractedthousandsofgueststotheevent.Engine4:ArapidlyexpandingmiddleclassMiddle-classconsumerswillrepresentanestimated65%ofallChinesehouseholdsby2027,accord-ingtoresearchconductedbyBain&CompanyfortheWorldEconomicForum.Allsignspointtoacontinuingriseinaverageper-capitaincomeamongChina’surbanpopulation.Thisexpandingmid-dleclasscontinuestoproducefirst-timebuyersofluxurygoods.Whysomeluxurybrandsaren’tcelebratingWhileluxurysalesarerobustinChina,noteverybrandexecutivefeelseuphoric.Astheirincomesrise,andastheyspendmoreonluxurygoods,Chineseconsumersarebecomingincreasinglydis-cerning.Somebrandsaremoresuccessfulthanothersatservingtheseneeds,resultinginadistinctpolarizationinluxurybrands’performance,similartowhatwesawin2017.What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?9Greaterthan25%10%–25%Lessthan10%DistributionofbrandsbygrowthratePerformanceofthetop20luxuryfashionandlifestylebrandsWinningstrategies2017–18domesticluxurymarketgrowth:20%ImproveaccesstoconsumersthroughdigitalandinfluencermarketingAttractattentionwithfrequentlyrenewedproductlaunches,visualmerchandisingandbrandimageTakeadvantageofscaletooffsettheincreasingcostofdoingbusinessinChinaNote:Top20brandsbasedonrevenueSource:BainanalysisFigure8: Luxury brand performance varied in 2018, but outperformers followed several winning strategiesTherealityisthatsomebrandshavedonebetterforthesecondyearinarow,andsomehavedoneworseforasecondyear.Howdramaticisthisdivision?Considerthetop20luxuryfashionandlife-stylebrandsbyrevenue.Foreverybrandthatgrewbymorethan25%in2018,thereweretwobrandsthatgrewbylessthan10%(seeFigure8).Welookeddeeperintotheperformanceresultstodeterminewhysomecompaniesmakesuchgoodprogresswhileotherslag.Amongourfindings:Winnersstrivetoenhancetheiraccesstoconsumersthroughdigitalandinfluencermarketing,oftenattractingmillennialswithyoungerandmorecasualcollections.Since2015,thetop40luxurybrandsinChinahavenearlydoubledtheportionoftheirmarketingbudgetdevotedtodigital,spendingbetween40%and70%ofthatonWeChat(seeFigure9).TheseleadingbrandsuseWeChattoidentifyandtargetconsumersforonlineandofflinesales(seeFigure10).Forexample,EstéeLauderconsumerscanuseWeChattobookfacialtreatments,andCoachallowsconsumerstoaccesscouponsandmanagetheirmembershipcardsontheubiquitoussocialmediaplatform.Asecondthemeweidentifiedamongthewinnerswasafocusonacceleratingproductlaunchesandvisualmerchandisingchanges,movesthataddressmillennials’needfornewness.What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?10Productinformation100Percentageofthetop40luxurybrandsusingWeChatofficialaccountfunctionsStoreinformation88Customerservice80WeChatcommerceService-orientedfunction75Brandinfo65Membershipmanagement48Note:Top40brandsbasedonrevenueSources:WeChat;BainanalysisFigure10: Brands use WeChat to identify and target consumers, eventually leading to both online and offline sales20152018TraditionalmarketingDigitalmarketing60%–70%2018WeChat40%–70%OtherdigitalplatformsMarketingspendingsplitDigitalmarketingspendingsplitNote:Top40brandsbasedonrevenueSources:Brandinterviews;BainanalysisFigure9: Brands are increasing their spending on various online and social media platforms, with many favoring WeChatWhat’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?11Andtherewasafinaldifferentiator:Manylarger,moreestablishedbrandsbenefitedfromtheirscaleadvantage.Witheverythingfromrentstosalariestomarketingeventsandengagingkeyopinionleadersgettingmoreexpensive,thecostofdoingbusinessisrisinginChina.Thetrendtendedtofavorbig-gerbrandsin2018.LookingaheadTurbochargedenginesinevitablylosesteam.China’seconomicgrowthisslowing,albeitinacontrolledmanner.Realestatepricesarelikelytoflatten,reducingthepositivewealtheffectonChinesehouseholds.Still,luxurybrandscanexpectapromisingyearaheadinChina.Luxurysaleswillremainhealthy,thoughtheyareunlikelytokeeppacewith20%growth.Growthinthelow-to-midteensseemsmoreprobablein2019.Thatexpansionwillresultfromthesamepositiveforcesthatmade2017and2018sostrong.TheChinesegovernmentisexpectedtomaintainitsadjustmentofimportdutiestoencouragedomesticconsumption,aswellastoreducetheVATrate.Itisalsolikelytocontinueimposingstrictcontroloverpassengersandparcelsatcustoms,andtomorecarefullysupervisethearmyof“daigouagents”What’sPoweringChina’sMarketforLuxuryGoods?12whopurchaseoverseasforlocalconsumers.Andbrandswillcontinuetonarrowthepricegapwithoverseasmarkets.China’smillennialswillnotlosetheirtasteforluxurygoods,northeirwillingnesstobuy.ArecentUBSsurveyfoundthat71%ofmillennialshaveapositivefinancialoutlook,and81%expecttheirincometoincrease.Meanwhile,China’smiddleclasswillcontinuetoexpand.China’smillennialswillnotlosetheirtasteforluxurygoods,northeirwillingnesstobuy.TheenginesthrustingluxurygoodssalesinChinamaynotbeunstoppable.Buttheyshownosignsofstallingout.SharedAmbition,TrueResultsBain&Companyisthemanagementconsultingfirmthattheworld’sbu