2020年美国葡萄酒全球分析报告（State of the US Wine Industry 2020）

StateoftheUSWineIndustry2020WrittenbyRobMcMillan,EVPandFounderSiliconValleyBankWineDivisionContents1.Introduction32.Executivesummary6Sevenheadwinds8Seventailwinds93.2019predictionsinreview10Whatwegotright11Whatwegotwrong124.2020USwinebusinesspredictionsandobservations13Supply14Demand15Price155.Grapeandwinesupply16The2001plantingbubble17The2020grapemarket—havewebeenherebefore?20Thebulkwinemarket22Implicationsfor2020246.Winesales26Wineryshipments28Genericsandwinesbelow$9—stilldeclining30Mid-pricepremium—growth,butdeclininggrowth32Luxurywine—threatsandopportunities33Directtoconsumer—positivegrowthbutslowing35Restaurantsales35Formats,varietalsandpackaging36Substitutes—spirits,cannabisandimports39Spirits40Cannabis41Imports44Othersubstitutes467.Demographicsandmarketing48Cohortconsumption50Themillennial“IndulgenceGap”52Themissingmillennial52Marketingwinetomillennials54Salesandmarketingforfamilywineries57Cracksinthetastingroommodel58Today’swinetourist59Directtoconsumer:Whereweneedtogonext608.LandandM&A619.Cumulativenegativehealthmessaging64Neo-prohibition,theoriginal64Neo-prohibition,thesequel6610.Endnotes682Introduction“Wemustnotthinkbecauseweputapriceongrapesandthepeopledonottakeit,thatwearethereforeoverproducing.Whenweputthisproductintotheconsumer’shandsatareasonableprice,wewillfindthattheproductionwillnotmeetthedemandoftheconsumer,thattherewillbeademandforeverypoundoffruitwecanproduce.”Hon.A.M.Drew,Fresno.OfficialReportofthe18thFruitGrowers’ConventionoftheStateofCalifornia,November23,1894.13Yes,weareatapointofoversupplyinthebusinesscycle.It’snotourfirst.Whentheindustrywasinasimilarstatein1894,theHonorableA.M.DrewfromFresno,whileopiningongrapepricing,hadaninterestingpointofview:Whenwedeliverwhattheconsumerwantsattherightprice,thereisnosuchthingasoversupply.That’sagreatplacetolaunchintothereportthisyearbecauseourcurrentoversupplyinCaliforniaandWashingtonisn’tduetospeculativeoverplanting.It’sduetothewineindustry’sgrowingmissinnotprovidingconsumerswhattheywant.That’snotanadversestatementaboutthequalityofwhatourindustryproduces.We’venevermadebetterwine.Butbasedontheindustry’scurrentresults,makinggreatwineisn’tgoodenoughfortheconsumertoday.Weareincreasinglymissingthemarkonconsumerexpectations,andourresultsshowit.Thatsaid,Ithinkthespeakeratthe1894conventionwastoofocusedonpriceandmissedthenuanceofhowmarketingandbrandingaffectdemand.Evaluatingtheprocessofhowaconsumerplacesvalueonsomethingandthenbuysitinvolvesfarmorethanlookingonlyatthestickerprice.Butthere’satruthinthatstatementweshouldcontemplatenonetheless.Andthisyearweshouldaskourselvesmanynewquestions:•Whyisthegrowthrateofwinebyvolumeenteringaperiodofdecline?•Whyarelower-pricedsegmentsstillshowingnegativegrowthinbothvolumeandsalesdollars(value)?•Whyarethehigher-pricedsegmentsthathaveproducedmostofthegrowthofsalesdollarswe’veseenforthepast25yearsflatteningout?•Ispremiumizationendingforthewinebusiness,andifso,why?•Whyarepriceincreasessohardtocomeby?•Howlongwillthecurrentsupplyexcesslast?Thosearedifficultquestionstoface.Butdespitethesemelancholythoughts,thecurrentoperatingenvironmentisn’tacompletecalamitybecausemacroviewsdon’ttellthewholestory,andthemoodoftheindustryismixed.Mostoftheindustrywillremember2019asaprettygoodyeardespitethechallenges,withalmostaquarteroftheindustryreportingthat2019wastheirbestyearinhistory!Howcanthatbe,giventheheadwinds?Ifwelookmorecloselyatthetrends,weseeabifurcationofperformance.Morewineriesarereportinggreatperformanceorrecordyears,andatthesametime,anincreasingnumberofwineriesarereportingpoorresults(seefigure1).Thepast25yearswasanerawheretherisingtideofconsumerdemandliftedtheboatsofeveryoneinthewinebusiness.Weconsistentlysawincreasingvolumesandpricesforpremiumwineduringthatperiod,andthroughoutit,everybusinessmodelseeminglyworked.ButasweevolveintothisnewerawheretheSource:SVBStateoftheWineIndustrySurvey35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%ThemostdifficultyearinourhistoryAdisappointingyearAgoodyearOneofourmostchallengingyearseverNeitheragoodyearnorabadyearOneofourbetteryearsThebestyearinourhistory2016201720182019Figure1:Howwasyouryear?Percentofrespondents4tideisslackorreceding,allboatswon’tfloat,andwewillhavewinnersandlosers.1Inthe1990s,thedominantcompetitiveissuewaswine.Ifyoumadegoodwine,itwouldsellitself.Inthe2000s,thatshiftedtosales.Youneededtoevolveyoursaleschannels—yourpathtomarket—andyoustillhadtomakegoodwine.Aswemoveintoalow-growthenvironmentin2020,thedominantcompetitiveissuewillshifttoefficiencies.Now,youwillnotonlyneedtocontinuetomakegreatwineandincessantlyevolveyoursaleschannels,butyouwillalsoneedtorunyourbusinessasefficientlyaspossiblesoyourmarginsarebetterthanyourpeers’.Inalow-growthenvironment,therearelikelytobewinnersandlosers,andyouwanttobeonthecorrectsideofthatledger.Muchlikethewineries’reportsoftheiryearinfigure1,weseebifurcatedresultsfromthefinancialstatementsofwineries(seefigure2).Inbottom-quartileperformers,theaveragegrowthrateinsalesisnegative7.82percent,butintheupperquartile,weseegrowthratesaveragingastaggering22.34percent!Lookingatthequartilesqualitatively,weseenotrendbasedoncasesalesvolume,yearsinbusiness,locationorbusinessmodel.Eachquartilehasasimilarmixofwineries.Whatreallyseemstodefinesuccessisthemanagementteam.Asawineryownerormanager,that’ssomethingtoreflectupontoday.Howisyourmanagementteam?Iseveryoneintherightseatonthebus?Asaleader,areyoufocusingonthemostimportantthings?Doesyourbusinesscultureembracecontinuousimprovement?Isfailureanacceptedpartoflearninginyourculture?Areyoutraininganddevelopingdepthandtalent?Areyouempoweringpeopletomakequickdecisionswithoutsecond-guessingthem?Haveyoufocusedonyourorganization’scultureanditsimpactonstaff,customersandtheearth?Areyouretainingyourmostimportantpeople?Doyouchampionsmartpeopleinyourorganizationwhohavedifferentviewsandincludetheminproblem-solving?Doyouseekdiversityonyourteams?Doyouhavetherightinformationtorunyourbusiness?Areyoupayingsomeonetominedata?Whatcanyououtsource?Areyouroutsideadvisors—yourCPA,attorneyandbanker—experienced,andaretheyaddingvalue?2Figure2:SalesgrowthratesoffamilywineriesSource:SVBPeerGroupAnalysisDatabaseQuartile1–7.82%Quartile23.59%Quartile311.29%Quartile422.34%Thoseareeachimportantquestionsbythemselvesandpartofadeeperevaluationyoushouldconsiderthisyear.Butonceyoudothat,whatproblemswillyouneedtoaddress?Ourreviewofthecomponentsthatdrivethewinebusinessrevealsthatretiringwine-lovingbabyboomersarebeingreplacedbymorefrugalspirits-lovingmillennialsandnowGenZers,whoconsumelessalcoholthanpriorgenerations.Weneedtoattractthoseyoungconsumers,butwearedoingapoorjobofthat.Why?•Substitutes:Theyoungconsumerisadoptingsubstitutesintheformofspirits,craftbeer,foreignwine,spikedseltzersandtosomeextentcannabis,insteadofdomesticwine.•Price:Wineismoreexpensivethanbeerorspiritsperserving,andfrugalyoungconsumersarevotingwiththeirwallets.•Neo-prohibition:Asanindustry,we’veallowedtheimpactofpaidsciencefromanti-alcoholgroupstogathermomentum.Thecumulativeimpactofthatmessagingisgainingtractionwithhealth-consciousconsumers.We’vedonelittletocountertheiragendaforthepast20years.•Regulatorychange:Legislatorsarmedwithpreordainedconclusionsfromanti-alcoholstudiesareauthoringincreasinglyrestrictivelawsandregulations.•Marketing:Wehavebeentooslowinadaptingtothisconsumerchange.Wearen’tyeteffectivelymarketingtoyoungconsumersandcreatingresonancewiththeirvalues.Wearen’tdoingagoodenoughjobofgivingthemareasontobuywine.Theadagethatchangecreatesopportunityistrueeveninadifficultmarket.Thewinnersoftomorrowwillbethewineriesthatunderstandtheevolvingconsumerprofile,criticallyevaluatetheirorganization’scapacitytoreact,developsolutionsandexecutequickly,thenevaluatetheirsuccessorfailuretocontinuouslyimprove.Thosecompanieswilltakesalesfromthosethatcontinuetoruntheirbusinessesthewaytheyhaveforthepast25yearsandstickwithstrategiesthathavealwaysworkedbefore.Thewinnerstomorrowwillbeintrepidandwillingtotrynewapproachesandchangethestatusquo.Webelievethisreportwillinformyourteam’sthinkingabouttheparticularnicheyouoccupywithinthewinebusiness.Wehopeitwillalsoinspireyoutogetcreativeaboutpossibilitieswithyourstrategicplanningandthatengaginginthatprocesswillhelpyouimproveyourchancesofsuccessintheyearahead.5ExecutivesummaryInJanuary2018,wesaid,“Salesgrowthforecastsforthenextfiveyearsshouldbetempered.Thefundamentalunderpinningsthatcreatedtheindustrygrowtharechanging,whichmeansthetacticsthatwerereliedupontoridethiswaveofsuccesstothispointwillslowlyproveflawedwithoutbusinessadaptation.”InJanuary2019,wesaid,“OverallsupplyislonginCalifornia.GrapeandbulkpriceswilldropnoticeablyintheCaliforniamarket.”Bothstatementshaveprovenaccurate.26STATEOFTHEWINEINDUSTRYREPORT2020CONTENTS|1|2EXECUTIVESUMMARY|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10Ifwesegmentdemand,thebelow$9winesoff-premisearestillshowingnegativevolumeandvaluegrowth,andabove$9winesarestillshowingmodestsalesgrowthonvolumeandvalue.Thesegmentabove$20ismorelikelytobeinthedirect-to-consumer(DTC)game.Usingourdatabaseofwineryfinancialstatements,webelievethesmallerfamily-runwinerieswillshowsalesgrowthaveragingbetween3percentand7percentatyear-end2019.Butthatgoodnewsisn’tsatisfyingtomostwineryowners,whocannowseetheimpactofconsumerchangeclearlyandaresensingtheloomingchallengesahead.In2018,theoverallWineryOwners’ConfidenceIndex3droppedascantfewpercentagepointsintonegativeterritoryforthefirsttimesincetheindexwascreated.Butin2019,overallconfidencedroppedprecipitously,with49percentofrespondentstakingapessimisticviewofmarketconditions(seefigure3).Withwinerygrowthestimatesnotmeetingplansandcomingoffthehistoric2018crush,2019startedwithfulltanks,andbuyersforgrapesandjuicewereonthesidelineswhilepriceforsupplywasseeking,butneverquitefound,abottom.ByApril,distributors,whowerenotingconsumersluggishness,startedaskingwineriesforevenhigherpromotionalallowances.Growersinthemeantimekeptloweringpricestoattractbuyersandselluncontractedfruit.Butbyharvest,thereweregrapesleftwithoutahomeacrossallregionsofCalifornia.Today,thesupplychainisstuffed.Thisoversupply,coupledwitherodingconsumerdemand,canonlyleadtodiscountingoffinishedwine,bulkwineandgrapes.Whilemanyinthebusinessdon’tliketoreadthosetypesofcomments,atthispointthosearen’tmerepredictionsbecausediscountingisalreadytakingplaceacrosseachpointinthesupplychain.Whenthedataareassembled,the2019harvestwilllikelyproducenormaltoslightlybelownormalyieldsinCaliforniaandbelownormalyieldsinOregonandWashington.That’snotsufficienttocorrectthesupplyproblem.Totalon-premisesalesfromwholesaledepletiondataandotherinformationsourcesshowthatwinesalesinrestaurantsarenowshowingnegativevolumegrowth.Mostinformationsourcesshowoff-premiseandtotalwinevolumeturnednegativein2018,whiletotalvaluesalesofwinearestillshowingslightlypositivegrowth.20152016201720182019806040200–20–40–60Source:SVBStateoftheWineIndustrySurveyFigure3:Trendsofindustrysentiments(Total“Positive”responsestoeachcategoryminustotal“Negative”responsestoeachcategory)IndexEconomySaleschannelsLaborCapitalSubstitutesConsumerdemandGrapesupplyAlcohollawsForeigncompetitionOverallDiscountingisalreadytakingplaceacrosseachpointinthesupplychain.7STATEOFTHEWINEINDUSTRYREPORT2020CONTENTS|1|2EXECUTIVESUMMARY|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10Grapesupply4andconsumerdemandarethelargestpositivecontributorsofowners’confidence.Grapesupplyisviewedbywineriesasbeingmorepositivethanotherissuesimpactingthebusinesstoday,whilelabor,alcohollawsandsubstituteselicitincreasinglynegativeresponses.Laborissuesandsubstitutesarenowthelargestconcerns,whilecapitalturnedslightlypositive,mostlikelyreflectingtheFederalReserve’sinterestrateeasingduringtheyearandthelargeandgrowingnumberoffinancialinstitutionscompetingfortheindustry’sbusiness.Sevenheadwinds:1.Babyboomers,whocontrol70percentofUSdiscretionaryincomeandhalfofthenetworthintheUS,aremovingintoretirementanddeclininginboththeirnumbersandpercapitaconsumption,whilemillennialsaren’tyetembracingwineconsumptionasmanyhadpredicted.2.Theindustryhasreachedthepointofacuteoversupplyduetodiminishingvolumessold.Thatwillleadtovineyardremovals—andfallowinginsomecases—andreducedreturnsforgrowers.3.Absentoffsettingpromotionofthehealthbenefitsofmoderatewineconsumption,thecumulativeimpactofnegativehealthmessagingwillcontinuetocastashadowoverconsumption,particularlyfortheyoungconsumer.4.Wineimportsandsubstitutesarearealandgrowingthreatformindshareamongemergingwineconsumers.5.AlagininnovatingalternativeDTCstrategiesbeyondthetastingroomandclubmodelsislimitingDTCgrowthforfamilywineries.6.Winecompaniesaren’taddressingthevaluesoftheyoungconsumerintheirmarketing.Wearen’tgivingthemareasontobuywineoverspirits.7.Laboravailabilityislimited,andthepriceforlaborisincreasing.Withanoversupplyandthefactthatpriceincreasesarenearlyimpossibleagainstthebackdropofslowingsales,thetrendandmantraofpremiumizationthatpushedvolumeandpricehigherforthepast25yearsisnearinganend.Forthefamilywinery,thedominantcompetitiveissuesarenolongermakinggoodwineandfindingasustainablepathtosellittotheconsumer.Thelatterhasbeenthedominantcompetitiveissuesince2001,buttodaybotharerudimentaryindustryexpectations.Aswelookforward,inanemergingeraoflowergrowth,thedominantcompetitiveissueswillshifttomanagementstrengthandthedecision-makingabilityofteamsandorganizations.Thetrendandmantraofpremiumizationthatpushedvolumeandpricehigherforthepast25yearsisnearinganend.Inanemergingeraoflowergrowth,thedominantcompetitiveissueswillshifttomanagementstrengthandthedecision-makingabilityofteamsandorganizations.8STATEOFTHEWINEINDUSTRYREPORT2020CONTENTS|1|2EXECUTIVESUMMARY|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10Seventailwinds:1.Withagood2019USeconomy,GenXersandboomersaredemonstratingspendingresilienceandstillincreasingtheirpurchasesofwineabovethe$9bottleprice.ThatcreatedanotheryearofrecordUSwinesalesbyvaluein2019.2.Thelargemillennialpopulationhasn’tbeguntoembracewine.Whilethat’sanegative,ifwelookatitfromtheotherside,it’salsothewineindustry’slargestopportunity.3.Acuteoversupplywillallowforbetter-qualityjuiceinlower-pricedbottles,whichimprovesvalueandwillprovideanincentiveforsomemillennialstobecomemoreconsistentwinebuyers.4.Thebetter-qualityregionsofOregonandWashingtonremainonastrongdouble-digitgrowthpath.5.Producerswithlong-establishedbrandsandthosewithgooddistributorrelationshipscontinuetoperformabovetheirpeers.6.Thenumberanddiversityofretailconceptsandlocationssellingwinecontinuetogrowtorecordnumbers.7.ThebusinessisdevelopingbothstrategiesandtacticsaroundtheDTCchannelandcontinuestoshowsalesgrowththroughthispathtotheconsumer.Withmostwineriesreportingthat2019wasagoodyear,itwouldbeeasyforwineryownerstojustkeepdoingwhattheydonow,hopingthemultitudeofchallengescreatingthecurrentretailsluggishnesswillbesolved.Thiswouldincludetheconsumerfindingmorediscretionaryincome,laborandimmigrationissuesbecomingdisentangled,digitalplatformsandstrategiesemergingtounravelthemanyproblemsandopportunitiesintheDTCsaleschannel—andtheyoungconsumergrowingupandstartingtodiscoverwine.Noneofuswouldbeinbusinesswithoutacertainamountofhope.Butnoneofuswouldstayinbusinessifweusedhopeasastrategy.Despitethemodestlypositiveyearin2019and25yearsofgreatgrowthfortheUSwinebusiness,thecurrentindustrytrendsaresignalingdifficulttimesahead,andtheIndustrySentimentIndexreflectsthat.InJanuary2019wenotedthatthefundamentalunderpinningsthatcreatedtheindustrygrowthwerechangingandthatthetacticspreviouslyusedtoridethewaveofsuccesswereprovingflawed.Nowit’sclear:TheUSwineindustryneedstoadaptandchangeitsfocusanddirection.TheUSwineindustryneedstoadaptandchangeitsfocusanddirection.9STATEOFTHEWINEINDUSTRYREPORT2020CONTENTS|1|2EXECUTIVESUMMARY|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|102019predictionsinreviewWehavebeenextensivelyresearchingthewinebusinesssince1991andmakingpublicforecastsforcloseto20years.Someyears,weproperlycharacterizeamarketchange.Inotheryears,ourfindingsmightbeoffintimingorevenwrong,5butwealwaysreviewtheforecastsmadetheprioryearjusttokeepscore.310STATEOFTHEWINEINDUSTRYREPORT2020CONTENTS|1|2|32019PREDICTIONSINREVIEW|4|5|6|7|8|9|10Ourleadstatementlastyearwasthefollowing:2018wasagoodyearforwine.Totalwinesalesfortheyearsetarecord,restaurantsalesofwinewerehigherandpremiumwinesalesendedupaswell.StrongconsumerconfidenceandaverygoodUSeconomycontributedtotheimprovedperformance,butchangestolong-termtrendsaretellingusthatweareatatransitionpointasanindustry.Thatwasanaccuratestatement.Whatwegotright•Wepredictedsalesgrowthof4percentto8percentforthepremiumwinesegment,comparedtotheprior2018full-yearactualgrowthrateof5.3percent.›SiliconValleyBank’sPeerGroupAnalysis(PGA)Database6showsanine-monthyear-to-datesalesgrowthrateof7.2percent,meaningweshouldfinish2019nearthehighendoftherange.•Fortheoff-premiseretailstorechannel,wesaidsaleswouldgrowbetween0.5percentand2.5percent.›Wewerecorrectwithpredictingsalesgrowthinvalue.NielsenBeveragereportedretailstoresalesfor52weeksthroughOctober5,2019,wereup0.94percent.•WesaidthattheM&Amarketwouldslownoticeablyin2019asmanyofthemajorbuyerswouldcontinuetodigesttheirpurchasesandexecuteonnewbrandstrategies.WesaidtherewouldstillbesomeforeignpurchasesofUSwineriesandsignificanttransactionsforvineyardpropertiesin2019.Forwineries,therealM&Awouldbereservedforiconicpropertiesthatmightcomeupandsellforthefullprice,buttotheextentwinerieswerechanginghands,thatwouldmorelikelyresultfromsalesbyfatiguedownerswhocouldseetheflatbusinessconditionsaheadandoptout.›Wewereaccurateinthiscase.ThetotalnumberofM&Atransactionsdroppedby43percentaccordingtoouraccounting.LouisRoedererpurchasedMerryEdwardsWinery7fortheonlyforeignpurchasein2019,andmostoftheannounceddealsincludedvineyardsorwerelargeblocksofvineyardssoldtofundsandstrategicbuyers(seefigure47onpage63).•WeexpectedCaliforniawouldproducearecordvolumeofgrapes.Wepredictedtheharvesttocomeinat4.4milliontonsinCaliforniaandthatthePacificNorthwestharvestswouldsetrecordsintermsofyield.›Californiadidproducearecordcropin2018at4.3milliontons.OregonandWashingtonbothproducedharvestyieldsatornearrecords,with79,685and261,000tonspickedrespectively,accordingtocropreports.•WesaidoverallsupplywaslonginCaliforniaandthatgrapeandbulkpriceswouldnoticeablydropintheCaliforniamarketin2019.WesaidthatWashington,withitslargeexpectedharvestin2018,wastippingtooversupplybutthatOregonwouldbeabletosellitslargeharvest,asthedemandforOregonpinotnoircontinuedtoaccelerate.›Thispredictionwasaccuratebutslightlyover-optimistic.WebelievedthatpriceswoulddropbutneverexpectedtoseesomanytonsofCaliforniagrapesgounharvested.Eventhoughmanycalledthisforecastneedlesslypessimistic,theharvestinCaliforniabroughtclarity,aspricesneverfoundabottomonthespotmarketandgrapeswentunharvestedineveryregioninthestate.Washingtonisindeedlonginregionsproducingforlowerbottleprices.Oregoncontinuesasthedarlingofthewineindustry,stillsellingeverythingitproduces.•WebelievedthatCaliforniavineyardpricesinpremiumregionswouldflattencomparedwiththestronggrowthseenforthepastseveralyears.›Fromallthatwecantellfromdiscussionswithappraisers,thiswasanaccuratepredictionbutleaningtowardoverlyoptimistic,sincesomepricedropshavetakenplace.Changestolong-termtrendsaretellingusthatweareatatransitionpointasanindustry.11STATEOFTHEWINEINDUSTRYREPORT2020CONTENTS|1|2|32019PREDICTIONSINREVIEW|4|5|6|7|8|9|102019startedwithfirmpricesthatsoftenedintothespringinsecondaryandtertiaryareas.InNapaandSonoma,thebestpropertiesheldfullvalue,whilelesserregionswithinNapaandSonomasawdeteriorationinvalues.Iconicpropertiesdon’tlosevalueandhaven’tinthepastyear.•WesaidWashingtonvineyardpriceswouldmoderateinthefaceofoversuppliedconditionsforthelargerproducersandthatpremiumproducersinEasternWashingtonwouldseemodestgrowthinlandprices.&rsaquo