交易冠军交易秘诀

CONTENTS The following trader profile interviews were published on FWN in 1996 GEORGE ANGELL KEYS IN ON VOLATILITY AND LIQUIDITY ……………..............3 JAYE BERNSTEIN: PSYCHOLOGIST TURNED TRADER …………………....................4 TOM BIEROVIC USES DISCRETION ON TOP OF HIS RULES ........................................5 WALTER BRESSERT READS MARKET VIA CYCLES & OSCILLATORS .....................6 TOM DEMARK RELIES 100% ON MARKET TIMING ......................................................7 GEORGE FONTANILLS INCORPORATES OPTIONS TO A LOWER RISK ...…………..8 LEE GETTESS FOCUSES ON CONTROLLING RISK .........................................................9 CYNTHIA KASE RELIES ON PROPRIETARY TECHNICAL INDICATORS ................. 10 GEORGE LANE STILL TRADING OFF STOCHASTICS AT AGE 75 ...............................11 GLENN NEELY BUCKS TRADITIONAL ELLIOTT ANALYSIS ..................................... 12 GRANT NOBLE READS MASS MEDIA FOR CONTRARIAN SIGNALS ....................... 13 LINDA BRADFORD RASCHKE FOCUSES ON TECHNICALS ........................................ 14 RICK REDMONT BASES TRADING ON WYCKOFF THEORIES .................................... 15 ANGELO REYNOLDS SCALPS IN THE EURODOLLAR PIT .......................................... 16 PERSISTENCE PAYS OFF FOR JOE STOWELL. …………………………………………17 GARY WAGNER USES CANDLESTICKS TO MEASURE SENTIMENT ........................ 18 BEN WARWICK'S "EVENT TRADING" KEYS IN ON NEWS …………………………...19 LARRY WILLIAMS: TRAINING KEY FOR TRADING, RUNNING ................................ 20 GEORGE ANGELL KEYS IN ON VOLATILITY AND LIQUIDITY Volatility and liquidity are the two elements independent trader George Angell looks for in a market to trade. Currently, Angell exclusively trades the S&P 500 futures, putting on intraday trades only, never holding positions overnight. "Liquidity and volatility are the two things you have to have. You can't day-trade something like oats--it wouldn't work" Angell said. Back in the early 1970s, Angell first became interested in the commodities markets. "I bought sugar and it went limit up ... then I bought copper and it went limit up, so I bought some more. Then it went limit down. I called my broker and told him to sell and he said to whom?" Angell said. "That's when I realized I had more to learn,” Angell added. In the early 1980s, Angell headed for the Chicago trading pits. He was a local trader at the MidAmerican Commodity Exchange, focusing primarily on gold. While Angell now trades for himself, off-floor, from a screen, he called trading on the floor "an invaluable experience.” "People on the floor are very short-term oriented" Angell said. "It taught me to get in, capture the trend, get your money and leave" he said. Now, however, Angell prefers off-floor trading. "I'm alone in a room trading. When I’m on the floor there are thousands of people. It's a social event. People want to talk about their positions, they want to have coffee. You lose your concentration... you can't see the forest for the tress," Angell said. Technology has revolutionized the capability of off-floor traders in the past 10 years, according to Angell. "The playing field has been leveled," Angell said, explaining that technology has decreased the advantage the floor trader was once seen as having over an off-floor trader. "The key beneficiary is the public trader. The public can't scalp, but they can day-trade," he explained. Angell disregards fundamentals, relying on technicals “100%.” He has developed two proprietary trading systems: LSS and Spyglass, which he utilizes in his day trading, along with "discretion and personal judgment.” "Everybody needs some sort of mechanical system. It enables you to take the difficult trades you wouldn't normally take on the seat of your pants" Angell noted. Also, "every day I go in without an opinion ... and I let the market tell me where it wants to go ... opinions are what get you in trouble," Angell added. While “a lot of people don't have the discipline to trade without stops," Angell said he doesn't use them. "The problem with stop trading is that you get out at the worst possible moment. Instead of stops, I use action points. That means when it hits that point I'll get out, but I'll wait for the bounce (if the market is going down)" Angell explained. Angell has traded the bond market as well. He keys m on his two key elements of volatility and liquidity when judging markets. "Occasionally, markets die on you. For instance, in 1980 we had a big gold market. It had gone to $850 per ounce...but volatility dried up and then liquidity dried up. At that point I went to the bonds," Angell said. When the S&P 500 contract was launched at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Angell started trading that market. However, he noted after the stock market crash of 1987, liquidity dried up in the S&Ps, and Angell moved back to the bonds for a time. "Big institutions are trading bonds and there are thousands to buy and sell at every tick. Nobody can play with that market. Nobody can manipulate it. That's why orange juice goes limit up all the time-because there is nobody to sell it," he said. When asked about GLOBEX trading, Angell said, "I don't pay any attention to it, because there's not enough liquidity there. On Eurodollars," Angell noted, "there is huge liquidity but not enough volatility to make money." On the differences between markets, Angell noted that "all the markets have different characteristics and you have to know your market very well. On the floor, a guy who trades lumber isn't going to trade the S&P. And traders trade the markets differently. People are known according to how they trade. This guy is a scalper. This guy trades back months. This guy is a spreader. This guy is a position day-trader. The novice trader needs to know he's got to be a specialist." When asked why many futures traders don't succeed, Angell pointed to three main factors. "One, a lack of discipline. Two, they are underfinanced. Three, they don't know what it's all about. They don't know about paradoxical even" Angell said. The dictionary definition of "paradox" is an apparent contradiction, which is nevertheless somehow true, Angell explained. One example of this in the markets is that "the whole game on the floor is to run the stops" he said. "In the market, everyone thinks it's going up, but everyone won't make money," he added. Advice that Angell has for beginning traders? "Be well-enough financed with risk capital that you can afford to lose. Don't think about the money, drink about the market, and the money will take care of itself," Angell concluded. 3 JAKE BERNSTEIN: PSYCHOLOGIST TURNED TRADER Jake Bernstein, one of the futures industry's best-known traders, started trading “by accident” he told FWN. Bernstein was a psychologist who responded to an ad in the newspaper regarding “ag futures.” A broker started calling him and Bernstein opened an account. “I had quick success, which turned into quick failure,” Bernstein said, acting at the time solely on his broker's recommendations. Then Bernstein “regrouped, did research, and started trading on my own.” An active trader now, he trades strictly according to technicals - off the floor from a screen. “My work has always been technically oriented, using price patterns, seasonality, and cycles.” Bernistein initially “developed my own method and timing. I didn't have the money to trade it, so I sold advice.” Eventually, he built up enough capital and began trading via his own method. President of MBH Commodity Advisors, based in Winnetka, IL., Bernstein has authored more than 20 books. He is the publisher of the MBH Weekly Futures Trading Letter, which has been in continuous publication since 1972, and he leads workshops on specific trading topics. Bernstein is also a panelist on the “All Star Traders Hotline.” “I love the teaching. Every time I teach, I learn something new and it reinforces the belief I have in my own methods,” Bernstein said. Also, “there is so much disinformation out there for traders, I feel good teaching something that I know works,” he added. Bernstein favors participation in the most active futures markets - energies, financials, and the S&P contract. However, “I trade anything that moves in any time frame,” he said. Very thin markets, such as palladium and orange juice futures, are markets Bernstein usually avoids. “I don't like the way the orders are executed there.” When asked if the value of technical analysis is eroded as more and more traders learn the same types of chart patterns, Bernstein said, “Chart patterns are as much art as science. I try to stay with things that are crystal clear. If 10 people look at a chart and all 10 of us come to the same conclusion - those are the types of things I am comfortable with. I like to be objective.” Bernstein pointed to Elliott wave analysis as a type of technical analysis that tends to be more “subjective,” as the wave counts are open to individual interpretation. The long-time trader has established his own home page on the World Wide Web and is fairly upbeat on the impact of the Web on the trading community. “I think the Internet will allow for faster distribution of information and will allow more people throughout the world to take part in the markets. It will increase the opportunities for everyone.” On the future of the exchange trading floors, Bernstein doesn't believe electronic trading will replace open-outcry pit trading anytime soon. “So far, I'm not impressed,” he said, regarding speculation on the eventual demise of pit trading. “I think there is still a place for the floor trader and the pit broker, and as long as the broker is being effective there will be a need for him.” Bernstein, however, has always been a “screen trader,” suggesting he is “much too short” to be a floor trader as “people would take advantage of me down there,” he said. On the current state of the futures markets, Bernstein believes a new inflationary era is on the horizon. “I think we are in for one of the biggest inflation moves we've seen since the 1970s. We will see a big move in the precious metals. We are already seeing rises in the grain complete ... the energies are going crazy-and that suggests more inflation. We are going to see interest rates rise and a big bear market for interest rates,” he predicted. Advice Bernstein has for beginning traders: “Start with enough capital; diversify; trade for the bigger moves and manage risk.” 4 TOM BIEROVIC USES DISCRETION ON TOP OF HIS RULES Off floor trader Tom Bierovic, trades according to a set of rules he has developed over the years, but uses his own discretion on top of these rules. Bierovic believes he was lucky because he was introduced to the futures business at a very young age. His father was a trader at the MidAmerica Exchange and Tom would plot daily and weekly bar charts of the agricultural contracts for his allowance money. “We didn't have computers ... I'd get the afternoon newspapers and get the closing prices every day,” Bicrovic explained. Additionally, during the summertime, Bierovic worked on the trading floor for his father. “I would keep 15-minute intraday bar charts and I did a 10-period simple moving average of the 15-minute closes,” he explained. “My dad would trade in the market scalping ... but the only difference is that he would only take trades in the direction of what I told him the 15-minute trend was,” Bierovic added. After plotting charts by hand for years and doing manual calculations for exponential moving averages, stochastics, RSIs, ADX and MACD, Bierovic said, “I don't do anything by hand anymore.” But, he added “I think that it is very good for when you are learning.” Bierovic is strictly a technical trader. In fact he “makes a deliberate effort to not know anything about fundamentals” he said. “All the fundamentals are summarized perfectly in the current price of the market,” Bierovic explained. “Technical analysis is applied social psychology. It's just crowd behavior-hope, fear and greed,” he said. Currently, Bierovic trades from his home in suburban Chicago and manages “a couple of million dollars” calling himself a “discretionary trader with a very specific methodology… I have all my rules written down exactly and carefully. So somebody else could trade my system. But, I deviate when I choose to.” However, he is not a CTA and abides by the restrictions of not soliciting funds and limiting the number of people that he trades for to under 15 in a 12-month period, he noted. Bierovic has developed what he calls a “momentum retracement trading method” which “involves knowing the direction and the quality of the trend, knowing how to measure countertrend reactions and when the trend has reasserted itself and knowing what to risk and knowing how to risk it,” he said. In terms of time frame, “I trade basically still off the daily charts, but I do watch the markets intraday and do trail my stops intraday,” Bierovic said. He focuses on trending markets and is not shy about taking profits. One example of the type of trade he might put on is “If I get in today, I'd get out tomorrow if the market returns to today's high,” he said. “I won't take a trade unless the market has recently had a strong directional trend ... to go long I'm looking for a real rice upthrust in the market,” Bierovic explained. "I think it's important to take profits because markets take them away nine out of 10 times," he said. "I just try to be right on at least 40% of the time using a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. There is a very good living in that," he said. "I take profits and look for an opportunity to re-enter," he noted, saying he is usually in his trades two to four days. This is one area where Bierovic said he sometimes uses discretion over his rules. "I deviate on exits. I say, 'Gee if I’ve made enough money. I just might take profits on the close.’ To me, a good trade is when I doubled what I risk," Bierovic added. As a chartist, Bicrovic doesn't favor one market over another. "I really treat them all the same," he said. However, "My favorite market is the most recent market in which I had a winning trade and my least favorite market is the one is which I most recently lost in" he joked. He does, however, focus on the more liquid markets. "The bigger the market, the better your fills are and the better technical analysis works" Bierovic said. "I stay in liquid markets. I don't trade lumber or pork bellies, palladium or the Australian dollar," he noted. "In a little market like pork bellies - it is not difficult to control the market - a big fish can move a little pond," he said explaining that "in a smaller market, technical analysis might not work as well" if the hopes, fears and greed of the masses aren't being reflected. Specifically, Bierovic credits Chuck LeBeau—“he taught me to look at markets with a (minimum) average daily volume of 5,000 and total open interest of 20,000 or more ... but I can fudge on that a little bit.” Bierovic advises beginning traders to "develop a trading style compatible with your own psychological make up ... some people can day-trade the S&P and some people can't. A trading style has to be congruent with your own personality," he said. "A beginning trader should concentrate on learning technical analysis and trading rather than the dollar gain or dollar loss... Keep losses small so you don’t get knocked out of the game. "Don't get overly excited about winning trades and don't get overly despondent about losing trades ... you shouldn't feel like a hero after one winning trade and you shouldn't feel like a bum after a losing trade. Just hang in there and keep trading.” “The whole battle is to have a trading method and to follow it," Bierovic concluded. 5 WALTER BRESSERT READS MARKET VIA CYCLES & OSCILLATORS Walter Bressert earned a college degree in economics, which taught him “economists don’t know much about the way the world works.” An active trader for many years, Bressert relies on cycles and oscillators in his intraday futures trading, in which he primarily focuses on the S&P 500 contract. However, Bressert does use all form of technical analysis, but he calls time cycles "the glue that holds everything together-it gives me a time frame that nothing else gives me" he explained. "By studying cycles, I became familiar with the rhythm and every market has its own rhythm," he said. Back in the late 1980s, Bressert realized there was a dearth of written materials on cycles and oscillators. So, he decided to write his own book, entitled Power of Oscillqtor Cycle Combination. "Cycles give you the time. But, by looking at a chart, you can't see if it's overbought or oversold. Oscillators pick up that type of energy. If it's over 80-90 it's a probable top or if its below 30 or 20 or 10, it's a probable bottom," Bressert explained. "But, you have to know the bigger picture-what is the trend?" For this, Bressert, looks back to cycles. For example, "the trend for the daily chart is determined by the weekly cycle.” Early in his career, when Bressert was trading on the floor "an old guy came up to me and said: 'Trading is really easy-when the trend is up, you buy dips, when the trend is down, you sell rallies.' Being young, I thought, 'What does he know?' But, about ten years later, I realized he had handed it all to me.” Bressert stressed the importance of trend. "Know the trend and trade with the trend or anticipate the trend reversal,” he said. Currently, Bressert is actively trading the S&P contract on an intraday basis and occasionally other markets. He favors the S&P contract because "it's liquid and can handle volume. It has sizable moves intraday and there are a lot of players-meaning the floor can't control the market," he explained. Bressert believes there are only three markets suitable for intraday trading: the S&P 500 contract, T-bond futures and the Swiss franc. Using cycles and oscillators has allowed Bressert to develop a mechanical type of trading system, which helps remove the emotional element of trading for him. "The market is emotion. It pushes all your buttons of fear and greed ... it ferrets out all your weaknesses,” he explained. "The emotional part is what I had to control. I found out I was not too temperamentally suited to be a star trader. The way I found to overcome that was to find mechanical entry and exit patterns." Bressert doesn't ignore fundamentals. He uses fundamentals to "look at the big picture" and to see "if the market acted the way it should have on good news." Also, he doesn't hold positions heading into big reports. "To me, that's gambling. A big report takes away the odds-because the unexpected can happen.” Looking ahead in the markets, Bressert is extremely bullish on the grains complex. "We should see a spectacular rally…we could see moves similar to the '70s,” he said. "Grains could continue to rally into the summer, with the possibility of an intermediate term top in April ... Beans should continue above $8," he said. "There is very little grain available now," he explained. Farther out, "We could take out $13 in beans over the next two years and could seen $6-7 corn ... the drought cycle is due to hit," Bressert speculated. Bre