济南钢铁（600022）重大事项点评—目前价位存在安全边际

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ � Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼�� ਼Ꮰ๲� ⬉䆱˖01084588218 䚂ӊ˖zxz@citics.com ᴢᅣ҂� ⬉䆱˖01084588094 䚂ӊ˖lihl@citics.com џ乍˖� ݀ৌথᏗ݀ਞˈᴀ⃵䞡໻䌘ѻ䞡㒘ࣙᣀϝ乍Ѹᯧˈे⌢फ䩶䪕ҹᤶ㙵ᮍᓣ਌ᬊড়ᑊ㦅䩶㙵ӑǃ⌢फ䩶䪕 ৥⌢䩶䲚ಶথ㸠㙵ӑ䌁ф䌘ѻঞ⌢फ䩶䪕৥㦅䩶䲚ಶথ㸠㙵ӑ䌁ф䌘ѻDŽ⌢फ䩶䪕ᢳҹᤶ㙵ᮍᓣ਌ᬊড়ᑊ㦅 䩶㙵ӑᅠ៤ৢˈ㦅䩶㙵ӑᇚ㒜ℶϞᏖᑊ⊼䫔⊩Ҏ䌘Ḑˈ⌢फ䩶䪕԰Ўড়ᑊᅠ៤ৢⱘᄬ㓁݀ৌDŽ ݀ਞ᮹ࠡ 20ϾѸᯧ᮹ˈ⌢फ䩶䪕ѸᯧഛӋЎ 5.05ܗ/㙵ˈ㦅䩶㙵ӑЎ 12.29ܗ/㙵ˈ⬅ℸ⹂ᅮ㦅䩶㙵ӑϢ ⌢फ䩶䪕ⱘᤶ㙵↨՟Ў 1:2.43ˈे↣㙵㦅䩶㙵ӑП㙵ӑᤶ 2.43㙵⌢फ䩶䪕㙵ӑDŽ ৠᯊЎֱᡸᣕᓖ䆂㙵ϰˈᇍ⌢फ䩶䪕ҹঞ㦅䩶㙵ӑⱘᓖ䆂㙵ϰৃߚ߿ᣝ✻ 5.05ܗ/㙵੠ 12.29ܗ/㙵ⱘӋ Ḑ㸠Փᬊ䌁䇋∖ᴗ੠⦄䞥䗝ᢽᴗDŽ 䆘䆎˖� ™ ᬊ䌁䌘ѻ ⌢䩶䲚ಶֵ䌶✸⛺࣪ 100%㙵ᴗǃ剡ᖋ⇨ԧ 100%㙵ᴗ੠ 30 ғܗ⦄䞥˗㦅䩶䲚ಶ䫊ቅൟ䩶 100%㙵ᴗǃ ໽ܗ⇨ԧ 100%ⱘ㙵ᴗǃ೑䌌݀ৌ 83.33%㙵ᴗǃᴎࠊ݀ৌ 100%㙵ᴗǃ⬉ᄤ݀ৌ 100%㙵ᴗঞ㞾ࡼ࣪䚼ǃࡼ࡯ 䚼੠䖤䕧䚼DŽ ݊Ёˈ䫊ቅൟ䩶ᰃ㦅䩶䲚ಶ݀ৌϟሲⱘ䰸㦅䩶㙵ӑҹ໪ⱘЏ㽕䩶䪕⫳ѻӕϮˈЏ㽕䌘ѻࣙᣀ 2 ᑻ 1,880 ゟᮍ㉇催♝ǃ2 ৄ 265 ᑇᮍ㉇⚻㒧ᴎǃ3 ᑻ 120 ৼ䕀♝ˈ3ৄ䖲䫌ᴎˈ3 ᴵᵓᏺ䩶⫳ѻ㒓ঞ݊䜡༫䆒ᮑㄝDŽ 䫊ቅൟ䩶ⱘ⚐䩶㛑࡯Ў 500 ϛৼˈ200ϛৼ⛁䔻ǃ40ϛৼދ䔻੠ 180ϛৼᆑ८ᵓDŽ ™ 䞡㒘ৢᢹ᳝⌢䩶䲚ಶ੠㦅䩶䲚ಶЏ㽕䩶䪕䌘ѻ ᴀ⃵䞡໻䌘ѻ䞡㒘ᅠ៤ৢˈᮄⱘ⌢फ䩶䪕ᇚᢹ᳝㦅䩶䲚ಶ੠⌢䩶䲚ಶⱘЏ㽕䩶䪕ЏϮ䌘ѻDŽ䞡㒘ৢˈ݀ ৌѻ㛑ᇚ䖒ࠄ 2000ϛৼҹϞˈѻક㣗ೈᇚ೼ॳᴹⱘЁᵓǃЁ८ᵓㄝᵓᴤક⾡෎⸔Ϟ๲ࡴ H ൟ䩶ǃ⡍⅞䩶ㄝ 䭓ᴤક⾡ˈѻક㒧ᵘ᳈ࡴ໮ܗ࣪ˈ᳝ࡽѢࡴᔎᢉᕵ㸠Ϯ亢䰽ⱘ㛑࡯ˈᦤछ݀ৌⱘᭈԧゲѝ࡯DŽৠᯊ᳝߽Ѣ⍜ 䰸ৠϮゲѝǃޣᇥ݇㘨ѸᯧDŽ䞡㒘ᅠ៤ৢˈ乘䅵ቅ䩶䲚ಶঞ݊݇㘨ӕϮᣕ᳝⌢फ䩶䪕㙵ᴗ↨՟ᇚҢ䞡㒘ࠡⱘ 69.23%ᦤ催ࠄ 80.00% ™ ⳂࠡӋԡ᳝ᬃᩥ ⌢फ䩶䪕ⱘᬊ䌁䇋∖ᴗӋḐ੠㦅䩶㙵ӑ⦄䞥䗝ᢽᴗӋḐߚ߿Ў 5.05ܗ/㙵੠ 12.29ܗ/㙵DŽذ⠠ࠡ⌢फ䩶䪕 ੠㦅䩶㙵ӑᬊⲬӋߚ߿Ў 5.27ܗ/㙵੠ 13.07ܗ/㙵ˈߚ߿催ߎ 4.4%੠ 6.3%DŽⳂࠡӋԡᄬ೼ϔᅮⱘᅝܼ䖍䰙DŽ ৠᯊˈؐᕫ⊼ᛣⱘᰃˈᬊ䌁⌢䩶䲚ಶ䌘ѻЁ᳝ 30ғܗ⦄䞥ˈгህᰃⳌᔧѢᇍ⌢䩶䲚ಶᣝ✻ 5.05ܗ/㙵ⱘ ӋḐ๲থњ 5.94ғ㙵DŽ ⳂࠡӋԡᄬ೼ᅝܼ䖍䰙 2010ᑈ 2᳜ 24᮹ ݀ৌⷨおg⶷㳛㾱䄖 ⌢फ䩶䪕˄������˅䞡໻џ乍⚍䆘 ⌢फ䩶䪕˄600022˅䞡໻џ乍⚍䆘 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 2᳜ 24᮹ 1 ঺໪ 䰸ˈ 30ғ⦄䞥໪ˈ݊ Ҫ䌘ѻⱘ䋺䴶ޔ䌘ѻЎ 69.16ғܗ 䆘ˈԄؐЎ 85.85ғܗ 䆘ˈԄ๲ؐЎ 24.1%ˈ ⳌᔧѢҹ 1.21ס PBᬊ䌁䲚ಶ䌘ѻDŽ㗠ذ⠠ࠡ⌢फ䩶䪕੠㦅䩶㙵ӑ PBߚ߿Ў 2.50੠ 2.14סDŽ䞡㒘ৢ ⌢ˈफ 䩶䪕ⱘ㙵ᴀᇚ๲ࡴ 29.94ғ㙵ˈ㙵ᴀᇚҢ 31.2048ғ㙵๲ࡴࠄ 61.1448ғ㙵DŽ ݀ৌ೼ 2009ᑈ 11᳜ 7᮹ذ⠠ҹᴹˈ䩶䪕㙵ᑇഛ䇗ᭈ 3~5%ˈᐙᑺϡ໻DŽ䡈Ѣ⦄䞥䗝ᢽᴗⱘӋḐǃ⌢䩶 䲚ಶ 30 ғ⦄䞥ⱘ๲ᣕҹঞ䌘ѻᬊ䌁ᇍϮ㒽ⱘ๲८ˈ៥Ӏ䅸ЎⳂࠡӋԡᄬ೼ᬃᩥDŽ៥Ӏᓎ䆂䗑∖㒱ᇍᬊⲞⱘ ᡩ䌘㗙៪㗙ⳟぎৢᏖⱘᡩ䌘㗙ৃҹ⿃ᵕ݇⊼DŽ ™ 亢䰽ᦤ⼎ ᴀ⃵䞡໻䌘ѻ䞡㒘ҡᄬ೼ϡ⹂ᅮᗻDŽ ™ Ϯ㒽Ԅㅫঞ䆘㑻 ៥Ӏ㓈ᣕᇍ݀ৌĀ๲ᣕāⱘᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽ ܡ䋷ໄᯢ� ℸ᡹ਞᑊ䴲䩜ᇍ៪ᛣ೒䗕থ㒭៪Ўӏԩህ䗕থǃথᏗǃৃᕫࠄ៪Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞ㗠ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲᴎ ᵘ˄ҹϟ㒳⿄ĀЁֵ䆕ࠌā˅ 䖱ডᔧഄⱘ⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘៪ৃ㟈ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌফࠊѢⳌ݇⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘ⱘӏԩഄऎǃ೑ᆊ៪݊ᅗㅵ 䕪ऎඳⱘ݀⇥៪ሙ⇥DŽ䰸䴲঺᳝㾘ᅮˈᴀ᡹ਞЁⱘ᠔᳝ᴤ᭭⠜ᴗഛሲЁֵ䆕ࠌDŽ᳾㒣Ёֵ䆕ࠌџܜк䴶ᥜᴗˈϡᕫҹӏ ԩᮍᓣׂᬍǃথ䗕៪㗙໡ࠊᴀ᡹ਞঞ݊᠔ࣙ৿ⱘᴤ᭭ǃݙᆍDŽ᠔᳝Ѣℸ᡹ਞЁՓ⫼ⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄ഛЎЁֵ䆕 ࠌⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄DŽ ᴀ᡹ਞᰃᴎᆚⱘˈা᳝ᬊӊҎᠡ㛑Փ⫼DŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘֵᙃǃᴤ᭭៪ߚᵤᎹ݋াᦤկ㒭䯕ϟ԰খ㗗П⫼ˈϡᰃ៪ϡ ᑨ㹿㾚Ўߎଂǃ䌁ф៪䅸䌁䆕ࠌ៪݊ᅗ䞥㵡Ꮉ݋ⱘ㽕㑺៪㽕㑺䙔䇋DŽЁֵ䆕ࠌгϡ಴ᬊӊҎᬊࠄᴀ᡹ਞ㗠㾚݊ЎЁֵ䆕 ࠌⱘᅶ᠋DŽ ᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑䌘᭭ⱘᴹ⑤ঞ㾖⚍ⱘߎ໘ⱚ㹿Ёֵ䆕ࠌ䅸Ўৃ䴴ˈԚЁֵ䆕ࠌϡֱ䆕݊ޚ⹂ᗻ៪ᅠᭈᗻDŽ䰸⊩ᕟ៪㾘߭ 㾘ᅮᖙ乏ᡓᢙⱘ䋷ӏ໪ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞⱘᴤ᭭㗠ᓩ㟈ⱘᤳ༅䋳ӏԩ䋷ӏDŽᬊӊҎϡᑨऩ㒃ձ䴴ℸ᡹ਞ㗠প ҷϾҎⱘ⣀ゟ߸ᮁDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔ᣛⱘ䆕ࠌ៪䞥㵡Ꮉ݋ⱘӋḐǃӋؐঞᬊܹৃ䎠ৃछDŽҹᕔⱘ㸼⦄ϡᑨ԰Ў᮹ৢ㸼⦄ⱘᰒ⼎ ঞᢙֱDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘ䌘᭭ǃᛣ㾕ঞ᥼⌟ড᯴Ёֵ䆕ࠌѢ᳔߱থᏗℸ᡹ਞ᮹ᳳᔧ᮹ⱘ߸ᮁˈৃ೼ϡথߎ䗮ⶹⱘᚙᔶϟخ ߎ᳈ᬍˈѺৃ಴Փ⫼ϡৠ؛䆒੠ᷛޚǃ䞛⫼ϡৠ㾖⚍੠ߚᵤᮍ⊩㗠ϢЁֵ䆕ࠌ݊ᅗϮࡵ䚼䮼៪ऩԡ᠔㒭ߎⱘᛣ㾕ϡৠ៪ 㗙ⳌডDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤⾕Ҏ੼䆶ᓎ䆂ˈг≵᳝㗗㰥ࠄϾ߿ᅶ᠋⡍⅞ⱘᡩ䌘Ⳃᷛǃ䋶ࡵ⢊މ៪䳔㽕DŽᬊӊҎᑨ㗗㰥ᴀ᡹ਞ Ёⱘӏԩᛣ㾕៪ᓎ䆂ᰃ৺ヺড়݊⡍ᅮ⢊މDŽ ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙމϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹ(ࣙᣀখϢޚ໛៪থ㸠ℸ᡹ਞⱘҎ)ৃ㛑(1)Ϣ ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘӏԩ݀ৌᓎゟ៪ֱᣕ乒䯂ǃᡩ䌘䫊㸠៪䆕ࠌ᳡ࡵ݇㋏ˈ(2)Ꮖ㒣৥ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌᦤկњ໻䞣ⱘᓎ䆂 ៪ᡩ䌘᳡ࡵDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙމϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹৃ㛑ᢙӏℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ㨷 џDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙމϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌৃ㛑খϢ៪ᡩ䌘ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ䞥㵡Ѹᯧˈ৥᳝݇݀ৌᦤկ៪㦋প᳡ࡵˈঞ/ ៪ᣕ᳝݊䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗ៪䖯㸠䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗѸᯧDŽ 㢹Ёֵ䆕ࠌҹ໪ⱘ䞥㵡ᴎᵘথ䗕ᴀ᡹ਞˈ߭⬅䆹䞥㵡ᴎᵘ⣀㞾Ўℸথ䗕㸠Ў䋳䋷DŽ䆹ᴎᵘᅶ᠋ᑨ㘨㋏䆹ᴎᵘҹѸᯧ ᴀ᡹ਞЁᦤঞⱘ䆕ࠌ៪㽕∖㦋ᙝ᳈䆺㒚ֵᙃDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤Ёֵ䆕ࠌ৥থ䗕ᴀ᡹ਞ䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋ᦤկⱘᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ˈЁ ֵ䆕ࠌⱘ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠ਬᎹѺϡЎࠡ䗄䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋಴Փ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞ៪᡹ਞ䕑ᯢⱘݙᆍᓩ䍋ⱘⳈ᥹៪䖲ᏺᤳ༅ᡓᢙ ӏԩ䋷ӏDŽ Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲঞ㘨㧹݀ৌ 2010⠜ᴗ᠔᳝DŽֱ⬭ϔߛᴗ߽DŽ 䆘㑻䇈ᯢ� � 䆘㑻 䇈ᯢ фܹ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ 20%ҹϞ˗ ๲ᣕ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ 5%̚20%П䯈˗ ᣕ᳝ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚5%П䯈˗ 㙵⼼ᡩ䌘䆘㑻 पߎ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗ ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗ Ёᗻ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚10%П䯈˗ 1.� ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ↨䕗ᷛޚ�� ᡩ䌘䆘㑻ߚЎ㙵⼼䆘㑻੠㸠Ϯ䆘㑻DŽ ҹ᡹ਞথᏗৢⱘ 6 Ͼ᳜ݙⱘᏖഎ㸼⦄Ў↨䕗ᷛޚˈ ᡹ਞথᏗ᮹ৢⱘ 6Ͼ᳜ݙⱘ݀ৌ㙵Ӌ˄ ៪㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙⳌᇍৠᳳⱘЁֵᷛ᱂ 300 ᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙЎ ෎ޚ˗ 2. ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ䆘㑻ᷛޚ ᡹ਞথᏗ᮹ৢⱘ 6Ͼ᳜ݙⱘ݀ৌ㙵Ӌ˄ ៪㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙⳌᇍৠᳳⱘЁֵᷛ᱂ 300ᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙ˖ 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻 ᔅѢ໻Ꮦ ⳌᇍЁᷛ 300ᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ 10%ҹϞ˗ � ࣫Ҁ Ϟ⍋ ⏅ഇ Ёֵ䆕ࠌ೑䰙᳝䰤݀ৌ ഄഔ: Ё೑࣫ҀᏖᳱ䰇ऎᮄ⑤फ䏃 6োҀජ໻ॺ(100004) Ϟ⍋⌺ϰᮄऎϪ㑾໻䘧 1568 োЁᓎ໻ॺ 22ὐ˄200122˅ ⏅ഇᏖ⏅फ໻䘧 7088 ো᢯ ଚ䫊㸠໻ॺ Aሖ˄518040˅ 佭␃Ё⦃⏏㕢䘧 1 োЁ ֵ໻ॺ 26ὐ ⬉䆱˖ (010)84588720 (021)68761565� (0755)83196279 (852)22376409 Ӵⳳ˖ (010)84868307 (021)68761669� (0755)82485240 (852)21046580 ᳡ࡵ⛁㒓˖ (010)84868367 Email: service@citics.com hkresearch@citics.com.hk 㔥ഔ˖ http://www.citics.com http://www.citics.com.hk http://www.spcitic.com