2020年5G技术跨行业和社会创造新价值分析报告

TheImpactof5G:CreatingNewValueacrossIndustriesandSociety3ForewordExecutivesummaryIntroductionBackgroundof5GFunctionaldriversof5G5GEcosystemCycleEconomicandsocialvalue5Gsectorsandusecases5Gusecaseanalysis5GpotentialforeconomicandsocialvalueacrossindustrysectorsOverviewofactionsrequiredbystakeholdersConclusionContributorsReferencesEndnotes45677891111161920212223Contents4ForewordTheFourthIndustrialRevolutionoffersanopportunityfordiversesectorstoenhancetheircompetitivenessandcontributiontoregionaleconomies,whilesupportingtheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Thisindustrialrevolutionispoweredbybothestablishedandemergingtechnologies,includingtheinternetofthings,artificialintelligence,advanceddataanalytics,roboticprocessautomation,robotics,cloudcomputing,virtualandaugmentedreality,3Dprintinganddrones.Onekeyenablerthatallowsthesetechnologiestorealizetheirfullpotentialisconnectivity.Industrialrevolutionshavebeencharacterizedbythetransformationofphysicalinfrastructurenetworks.ElectricitypoweredtheSecondandThirdIndustrialRevolutions,asnetworksachievedeconomiesofscalebyconnectinglargeplantsoverhigh-voltagetransmissiongridstolocaldistributionnetworksreachingmanyusers.TheFourthIndustrialRevolution’sfullpotentialwillbefullyrealizedthroughthewide-scaledeploymentof5Gcommunicationnetworks.5Gwillbecriticalbecauseitwillenableunprecedentedlevelsofconnectivity,upgrading4Gnetworkswithfivekeyfunctionaldrivers:superfastbroadband,ultra-reliablelowlatencycommunication,massivemachine-typecommunications,highreliability/availabilityandefficientenergyusage.Together,thesedefiningfeatureswilltransformmanysectors,suchasmanufacturing,transportation,publicservicesandhealth.Toensurethewidespreaddeploymentof5Gnetworks,keystakeholdersmustaddressimportantquestions.Governmentregulatorsandcitymanagersmustdecidewhetherandwhentoinvestin5Ginfrastructure;mobileandtelecommunicationsoperatorsmustevaluatesuitablebusinessmodels;andcitizensmustfindwaystorealizethefullbenefitsthistechnologycanbringwhileensuringthepreservationofthecommunity’srights.Thetransitionto5Gnetworkscanonlybeachievedwhenallstakeholders–citizens,theprivatesectorandgovernment–collaboratetoeffectivelyaddressthesequestions.TheinsightsandrecommendationsinthisWhitePaperaimtopavethewaytowardsacceleratingasustainableandinclusivetransitionto5Gnetworksglobally,creatingsignificanteconomicandsocialvalue.5ExecutivesummaryThepositiveimpactoftheFourthIndustrialRevolutionanditsrelatedemergingtechnologieswillbefullyrealizedthroughthewide-scaledeploymentof5Gcommunicationnetworksincombinationwithotherconnectivitysolutions.Thekeyfunctionaldriversof5Gwillunlockabroadrangeofopportunities,includingtheoptimizationofservicedelivery,decision-makingandend-userexperience.Significanteconomicandsocialvaluecanbegeneratedbyenablingusecasesactivatedby5G.AnIHSMarkitstudy1estimatesthat$13.2trillioninglobaleconomicvaluewillbemadepossibleby2035,generating22.3millionjobsinthe5Gglobalvaluechainalone.Tobetterunderstandit,the5Gecosystemwasmappedouttoidentifyitscomponents,itsstakeholdersandinterdependencies,andtheactionsneededtoaccelerate5Gdeploymentandfullyrealizethepotential.Asetofchallengeswasidentifiedforeachcomponent(spectrum,infrastructure,devices,services,impactandsecurity).Toensurethatalltheactionstoaccelerate5Gdeploymentarecoordinatedandtheinterdependenciesareunderstood,strongcollaborationbetweenstakeholdersisneeded.Onekeyareaforcollaborationthatrequiresmultistakeholderinputisastrengtheningofthebusinesscasefor5Gthroughthequantificationofthepotentialsocialvaluethatcanbecreated.Manyofthecurrentusecasesaretechnicallyenabledbythefunctionaldriversof5Gandactivatedthroughmultistakeholdercooperationandcollaboration.Ananalysisof40usecaseswasconductedaspartofthedevelopmentofthisWhitePaper,whichidentifiedkeyindustrialadvancesandsocialimpactareasinadditiontothemainfunctionaldriversof5Gandtherequiredmaturitylevelsofthesefeatures.Theresultsofthisanalysis,complementedbyinsightsfromstakeholderinterviewsandseveralcross-industryworkshops,generatedthefollowingkeyfindings:Significanteconomicandsocialvaluecanbegainedfromthewidespreaddeploymentof5Gnetworks.Technologicalapplications,enabledbyasetofkeyfunctionalfeatures,willbothfacilitateindustrialadvances,improvingtheirbottomline,andenhancecityandcitizenexperiences.Toacceleratetheadoptionof5G,newcollaborationmodelsamongstakeholdersareneeded,alongwithclearmethodologiestoestimatethesocialvaluecreation,whichwillenhancethebusinesscaseof5G.Foradditionalinformationontheusecases,theirindustrialadvancesandsocialvaluecreationpotential,aswellastheirenablingfunctionaldrivers,seetheaccompanyingusecaserepositoryhttp://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Impact_of_5G.pdf.Industrialadvances5Gwillcontributetoindustrialadvancesinthreesignificantways:by1)enablingfasterandeffectiveinspectionsthroughpredictiveintelligence;2)improvingworkplaceandworkersafety;and3)enhancingoperationaleffectiveness.5Galsohasthepotentialtoimpactindustrybymanagingthecarbonfootprintandbridgingthedigitaldivide,whichtogetherapplyto63%oftheusecasesidentified.Socialimpact5Gcandeliversocialvalueacross11keyareasthatcorrespondto11oftheUnitedNations’17SustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).Thisvaluederivesmainlyfromcontributingtogoodhealthandwell-being,enhancinginfrastructure,promotingsustainableindustrializationandfosteringinnovation.Otherkeyareasinwhichsocialvalueiscreatedthrough5Gincludecontributingtoresponsibleconsumption,enablingsustainablecitiesandcommunities,andpromotingdecentworkandeconomicgrowth.FunctionaldriversFivekeyfunctionaldriversof5Gsupportcertaintechnologicalapplications.Theyare:1)enhancedmobilebroadband;2)ultra-reliablelowlatencycommunication;3)security;4)massivemachine-typecommunications;and5)powerefficiency.Most(93%)oftheusecasesanalysedwouldbeenhancedbyultra-reliablelowlatencycommunicationand78%byenhancedmobilebroadband.Massivemachine-typecommunicationsandsecurityarealsoimportant,witheachdrivercontributingto45%oftheusecasesanalysed.Itisimportanttonotethat5Gcouldbetheidealtechnologyforcertainsolutions,butothersmightbesufficientlyservedwithWiFi,4Gorevenearliergenerationsofnetworks.5Gmaturity5Gdeploymentwilloccurinphaseswithcertainfunctionaldriversimprovingovertime.However,notalltheusecasesidentifiedrequirethesefunctionaldriversatfullmaturity.Thekeydriversintheircurrentstateandintheshorttermthathavethehighestpotentialtodisruptarelowlatencycommunicationandenhancedmobilebroadband.6IntroductionFast,intelligentinternetconnectivityenabledby5Gtechnologyisexpectedtocreateapproximately$3.6trillionineconomicoutputand22.3millionjobsby2035intheglobal5Gvaluechainalone.2Thiswilltranslateintoglobaleconomicvalueacrossindustriesof$13.2trillion,withmanufacturingrepresentingoverathirdofthatoutput;informationandcommunications,wholesaleandretail,publicservicesandconstructionwillaccountforanotherthirdcombined.3Tomakethathappen,however,trillionswillfirsthavetobeinvestedtointroduceglobal5Gnetworks.5Gpresentsanopportunityforcompaniestobefirstmovers,butgreatercooperationisneededtoacceleratedeployment.Whileseveralcountrieshaveinitiatedroadmapsforthe5Grollout,othersarefallingbehindduetoadiversesetofchallengesthatwillrequireanunprecedentedlevelofcollaborationbetweenbusiness,thepublicsectorandbroaderstakeholdersinsociety.Thesehaverepercussionsacrossseveralareasoftheecosystem,includingincreatingnewbusinessmodels,fosteringinnovation,defininginvestmentmodelsfordigitalinfrastructure,preparingforcybersecurityscenariosand,morebroadly,ensuringsustainabilityandpositivesocietalimpact.Tounderstandthesesystemicchallenges,theWorldEconomicForumhasinitiateda5G-NextGenerationNetworksProgrammetohelpenterprisesacrossindustriestransformwhileshapinganinclusiveandsustainabletransitiontothenextgenerationofnetworks.ThisprogrammeispartoftheDigitalEconomyandNewValueCreationPlatform,whoseobjectiveistodevelopneweconomicandbusinessmodelsthataredigitallydriven,creatingsustainablevalueforaninclusiveeconomy.TheobjectiveofthisWhitePaperistoshedlightonwaystorealizethelargeestimatedeconomicoutputpotentialbytakingabottom-upapproachthroughause-case-drivenanalysis.Theanalysisof40sampleusecasesinvariousindustriesestablisheslinkagesbetweencommercialandsocietalimpact,andexploreshowthefunctionaldriversof5Gcouldenhancetheoutputoftheseusecasesas5Gnetworksevolve.Additionally,thispapersummarizeskeychallengesbasedoninsightsfromseveralstakeholders,andpresentsasetofstakeholderactionstoaccelerate5Gdeploymentinordertorealizeitsfullpotential.Overthepastdecade,as5Gwasfirstimagined,thendeveloped,andthenlaunched,thoseofusinthetechandtelecommunicationsindustriesbecameincreasinglyexcitedbyitspotential.Weknewfromanearlystagethat5Gwouldmakedigitalizationmoreaccessible,allowingsmallbusinesses,publicservicesandevenindividualhouseholdstoreapthebenefitsofsmartproductsandservices.Butwhatwedidn’tknowwasexactlywhatthoseproductsandserviceswouldlooklike.Nowweknow.Thispaper,whichwehaveactivelycontributedto,showsthat5G’sspeed,reliabilityandscalearealreadyunlockinghugesocialandeconomicgains.Thisisthefuture–andNokiaisdelightedtoplayitspart.RajeevSuri,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,Nokia7FunctionaldriverDescriptionAddedvalueUsecasesEnhancedmobilebroadband(eMBB)Fasterconnections,higherthroughputandgreatercapacity(upto10Gbps)Allowsforanextensionincellularcoverageintodiversestructures(largevenues)andtheabilitytohandlealargernumberofdevicesusinghighamountsofdataFixedwirelessaccessservice,enhancedin-buildingbroadbandservice,real-timeaugmentedrealityservice,real-timevirtualandmixedrealityservice,crowdedordenseareaservice,enhanceddigitalsignage,high-definitioncloudgaming,publicprotectionanddisasterresponseservices,massivecontentstreamingservices,remotesurgeryandexaminationUltra-reliablelowlatencycommunication(uRLLC)Reducedtimefordatafromdevicetobeuploadedandreachitstarget(1mscomparedto50msfor4G)Enablestime-sensitiveconnectionswirelesslyAutonomousvehicles,dronesandroboticapplications,healthmonitoringsystems/telehealth,smartgridandmetering,intelligenttransportation,factoryautomation,remoteoperation,self-drivingcars,mission-criticalservices(securityandsafety),high-definitionreal-timegamingSecurityRobustsecurityproperties,leadingtohighreliabilityandavailabilityCreatesanultra-reliableconnectiontosupportapplicationswherefailureisnotanoptionMassivemachine-typecommunications(mMTC)IncreasedspectralefficiencyplussmallcelldeploymentAllowsforalargenumberofconnectionstosupportdata-intensiveapplicationsAssettrackingandpredictivemaintenance,smartcities/buildings/agriculture,internetofenergy/utilitymanagement,industrialautomation,smartlogistics(advancedtelematics),smartgridandmetering,smartconsumerwearables,environmentalmanagement,intelligentsurveillanceandvideoanalytics,smartretailPowerefficiencyEfficientpowerrequirementsformassivemultiple-input,multiple-output(MIMO),smallcellimplementationLeadstolowercostsandenablesmassiveinternetofthingsBydefinition,5Greferstofifth-generationcellularnetworktechnology,whichhasbeenevolvingsince1980.5Gisexpectedtosignificantlyenhancethemobilenetwork,enablingmoreconnectionsandinteractions.Thisconnectivityenhancementacrossnetworkswillunlocksignificantpotentialforvariousindustriestoimprovetheirbottomline.Functionaldriversof5GThetransitionto5Ginvolvesanew,end-to-endnetworkarchitectureandpresentsseveraldefiningfeaturesthatmakeitunique.Thefivekeyfunctionaldrivers4of5Gandpossibleusecasescanbesummarizedasfollows:Backgroundof5GSource:ITU,2018.58InfrastructureImpactDevicesServicesSecuritySpectrumSource:WorldEconomicForumandPwCprojectteam.Realizingtheeconomicandsocialvalueof5Gcallsforaneffectiveapproachto5Gdeployment.Toachievethisgoal,specificexistingchallengesinthevariouscomponentsofthe5Gecosystem,andthestakeholder(s)responsibleforeachchallenge,firstneededtobeidentified.Thestakeholdersidentifiedweregroupedintofourcategories:5GEcosystemCycleThe5GEcosystemCycle6wasidentifiedtobestusethenew,end-to-endnetworkarchitectureof5Ganditscorrespondingfunctionaldrivers.Itenablesthesustainabletransformationofindustrysectorsandsociety.ThecycleisbasedoninterdependenciesacrossallkeyareasoftheecosystemandtheneedforcertainFigure1:5GEcosystemCycleSPECTRUMistheoilofthe5Gecosystem,withoutwhichno5Gnetworkinfrastructureordevicescanoperate.Thefuturenetworkswillrelyonacombinationofmainstreamandalternativetechnologiesandwillusebothlicensedandunlicensedspectrumacrossdifferentspectrumbandstogether(low=longrange,indoorpenetrationbutlowcapacitydensity;high=shortrange,noindoorpenetration,highcapacitydensity).INFRASTRUCTUREcomprisestheelementsofthe5Gnetworkthatprovidecoverage,bandwidth,latencyandreliabilityfor5Gdevicessuchasbasestations,mobilebackhaul,edgecloudsandcorenetworks,aswellastheenddevicesonwhichthe5Gnetworkwillbeused.IMPACTcanbeachievedintwodimensions:–Economicimpact:employment(payroll),economicoutput,profits,investment–Socialimpact:health,education,livelihood,airquality,greenhousegaslevels,landuseandbiodiversity,wastemanagement,waterconsumption,waterquality.Theactualandperceivedend-to-endSECURITYof5Ginfrastructure,devicesanduseswillbeakeyfactorforendusers,enterprisesandpublicinstitutionswhendecidingtomovetheiractivitiesto5G.AccordingtoGartner,thenumberofconnectedDEVICES(sensors,smartphones)inusewillincreaseto25billionby2021,from14.2billionin2019,creatingstrongersectorialdependenciesonthenetworks.Thedevicesmustbeabletosupportmuchgreaterperformancesandneedtoexistinavarietyofformfactorstosupportthenew5G-enabledusecasesandbusinessmodels.5Gecosystem5GrepresentsanopportunityforconnectivityproviderstoimprovenetworkleadershipbybeingthefirstmoversandcompetitivelypositioningthemselvestodeliverkeySERVICESacrossdiversegeographies.However,subscriber-basedbusinessmodelsneedtobetransformedtoenabledigitalservicesthatsupporttheroadmapsofenterprisesacrosssectors.Involvingnon-traditionalstakeholdersacrossindustrieswouldberequiredtocreatepartnership-basedecosystemsandachievethedeploymentof5Gnetworksmorequickly.actionstooccurineachoftheseareastoinitiateandmaintainmomentum.The5GEcosystemCycleaimstorepresenttheneedforstakeholdercollaborationandalignmentthroughouttheecosystem,includingcoordinateddecision-makingthatwillhaverepercussionsontheecosystem’ssubsequentcomponents.Figure1providesavisualizationofthecycleandadescriptionofitskeycomponents.Regulators/Policy-makersEnterprises/Organizations/AssociationsService/TechnologyprovidersPublic-privatepartnershiporganizationsGovernmentregulators/regulatoryagencies,suchastheFederalCommunicationsCommission(US),EuropeanCommission(EU),MinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology(China)Enterprises,internationalassociations,allianceswithageographical/thematic/sectorialfocus,suchastheInternationalTelecommunicationUnion,GSMA,3GPP,5GAllianceforConnectedIndustriesandAutomation,5GAutomotiveAssociationNetworkoperators,networkequipmentandoperationaltechnologyproviders,towercompanies,softwareserviceproviders,device/chipmanufacturersOrganizationswithafocusonpublic-privatepartnerships,suchasthe5GInfrastructurePublicPrivatePartnership,WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFund,OECD,UnitedNations,UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange9Thefollowingtablesummarizesthekeychallengesacrosstheseareasbystakeholder:ComponentRegulators/Policy-makersEnterprises/Organizations/AssociationsService/TechnologyprovidersPublic-privatepartnershiporganizationsChallengesSpectrum•••LocalpermitsandplanningforspectrumusageAuctionsandhighfeesforspectrumprocurementFragmentationduringallocationsofspectrumInfrastructure••••Fibrebackhaul:capacity,availability,deploymentcostandlong-distancereachNewfundingmodelsforfibredeployment/ownershipSmallcelldeployments:localpermitsandplanningDevices••Availabilityofdevicescompatiblewithlocalspectrumandallocations,andinlinewithharmonizedglobalstandardsLackofclearroadmapfordevicemanufacturersServices••••GuidelinesandstandardsrelatedtodataexchangeacrossbordersUsecasesarisingfromintegrationwithnewtechnologies(artificialintelligence,bigdata,internetofthings)Lackofincentivesforcross-industrycollaborationsSkillsupgradeofserviceproviderresourcesImpact•Limitedfocusonsocietalandenvironmentalbenefitsdueto5GDisintegrationofbenefitsprovidedby5GvsbenefitsbyotherITtechnologiesSecurity•••SecurityofpersonaldatacollectionDevicevulnerabilityNetworkdatatransmissionvulnerabilities$13.2trillionAnnualGlobalEconomicOutputby2035(IHSMarkit)Info&Comms$1.6TWholesale/Retail$1.2TPublicServices$1.0TManufacturing$4.7TOther$4.7TEconomicandsocialvalueToincentivizethemtocollaborateonaddressingthechallengesofwidespread5Gdeployment,stakeholdersmustbeawareofandalignedonthepotentialeconomicandsocialvalueof5G.Intelligentconnectivity,enabledby5G,willbeacatalystforsocio-economicgrowthintheFourthIndustrialRevolutionwithanestimated$13.2trillionofglobaleconomicvaluereachedby2035(Figure2).Figure2:EconomicandsocialvalueSource:BasedonIHSMarkit,The5GEconomy:How5Gwillcontributetotheglobaleconomy,2019.10Figure3:Cumulativeglobal5Gimpact,2020-2035Source:Chartextractedfrom5Gsocio-economicimpactinSwitzerlandbytech4i2,February2019,updatedwiththefigure$13.2trillionby2035fromThe5GEconomy:How5GwillcontributetotheglobaleconomybyIHSMarkit,November2019.Differentindustrysourceshavevaryingestimatesregarding5G’soverallimpactthroughitsuseinthefuture.Hence,itisessentialtodevelopamechanismtoevaluatethequantifiedimpactofeach5Gusecaseontheeconomy,societyandtheenvironment.7Investmentsin5Gnetworkswillreach$1trillionworldwideby2025accordingtotheGSMA,thebodythatrepresentstheinterestsofmobilenetworkoperatorsglobally.Italsopredictsthattheglobal5Gnetworkinvestmentcyclewillbelongerthan4G,indicatingthatthecoexistenceof4Gand5Gwilllastintothe2030s.Whencoupledwithtechnologysolutions,suchastheinternetofthings,artificialintelligenceorbigdata,5Gholdsthepotentialtodeliverlarge-scalesocietalvalue.AstudyconductedbyTech4i2indicatesthat5Gwillsupport137,000jobsinSwitzerlandaloneandcreateeconomicoutputof42.4billionSwissfrancsby2030.8AccordingtoaEuropeanCommissionStudyconductedin2016,9thepotentialeconomicoutputof5Gisestimatedtobe€141billionwith2.3millionjobscreatedinthe28MemberStatesoftheEuropeanUnion.Whilesignificantresearchvalidatesthemacroeconomicpotentialoffuturenetworks,awiderangeofsocio-economicbenefitsthat5Genabledapplicationscouldprovideandthatwillincreasethedemandfor5Gnetworksarenotbeingfullyconsideredattheuse-caselevel.ThisWhitePaperthuscomplementspublishedfindingsonthepotentialimpactof5Gby:–Establishingcommercialandsocietallinkagesattheuse-caselevel–Analysinghowmacroeconomicvaluecouldberealizedbasedontheway5Gcouldimprove,enhanceoruniquelyenablenewusecases–Identifyingthesocialimpactareastowhich5G-enabledtechnologiescancontribute.0246810121416202020252030203520402045ThiererUS$1.9t2025BusinesswireUS$1.6t2025McKinseyUS$1.5t2025UKFCCGUS$7.6t2028IHS*2019US$13.2t2035EricssonUS$3.3t20265GGlobalimpact(US$Trillions2016)20202025203020355GGlobalimpact(US$Trillions)115GsectorsandusecasesTheeconomicvaluethat5Gcancreatecanbeidentifiedthroughpotentialindustrialadvancementareasandsubsequentmajorcommercialopportunitiesacrossindustrysectors:Figure4:Maturityofusecasesenabledacrossindustrysectorsbyevolvingfeaturesof5G–Speed:1-5Gbps–Latency:<20ms–Reliability:99.99%–Latency:<5ms–Speed:10Gbps–Latency:<10ms–Reliability:99.999%–Latency:<1ms–Reliability:>10yearbattery–Devices:upto1m/km2CoverageFixedWirelessAccessEnhancedMobileBroadbandHighlyDenseUrbanUrban/SuburbanSelectiveRural2019202120232020202220242025SmartHomePublicSafetyComms.SmartFactory(Real-timeRemoteControl)ConsumerAR/VR(Retail)AR/VRinHealthcareFleetandInventoryManagementandTrackingAutonomousCarsEnergyandUtilityReal-timeBankingWidespreadIoT(SmartCitiesandAgriculture)AR=augmentedreality;VR=virtualreality;IoT=internetofthings.Source:PwCStrategy&andWorldEconomicForum,“5GfortheFourthIndustrialRevolution”,2019.Inthissection,specificusecasesinwhicheconomicandsocialvaluearecreatedareidentifiedacrossdifferentindustrysectors,