【精品】你好,在翻译完了之后,想给你提几个意见,61

【精品】你好,在翻译完了之后,想给你提几个意见,61 你好，在翻译完了之后，想给你提几个意见， 第一， 在写论文的时候，最好不能总是用感叹号，那样就觉得你的论文不严谨。我给你改 了过来。 第二， 你的参考文献太少了，正规论文至少要10以上，包括籍，参考论文，网上搜索的 网页，报纸文摘等等。建议你在多添加一些与之有关的参考文献。并且文献的写作 你的也太简单了，建议去网上搜搜正规参考文献的格式。 第三， 你的论文格式最好重新设计一下，我的翻译译稿没有给你设置，我想你肯定还需要 统一格式。 第四， 最重要的一个是你的摘要太少了，应该在完善一下。字数至少控制在200以内吧。 The significance of industry fund flow analysis to macroeconomic regulation and control Abstract This paper will put forward a new macroeconomic analysis, and introduce the process of this analysis, at last it will give some examples for the using of this analysis in macroeconomic regulation and control Key words: industry fund flow analysis macroeconomic regulation and control Introduction In the natural world, there is a food chain ecological system, and food is the core. For example:Plants -> worm- > frog ->snake - > hawk, this is a food chain, and the plants is the food of worm, worm is for flog, frog is for snake, and snake is for hawk. If farmers spray some insecticide to the trees and worm will disappear, frog, snakes, hawks will come to an end either. Through close contact between food chain, this is the nature of the ecological balance, and the value of the can help us to understand the changes on a link to other species. In our economic activity, capital is the core, and our economic activity is indeed exist similar height of the food chain, and that is called industry chain, for example: real estate - > steel -> iron ore - > mining equipment, in this simple industry chain, the real estate industry will bring the demand of steel production, the steel demand will directly bring the demand for iron ore, and mining ore will need the mining equipment. They link to each other through the currency - commodity exchange. Capital activity is the currency movement, will also directly and rapidly reflects the various activities in this chain link, including all production processes, each link of the impact of the downstream. If combined with employment data, trade data analysis, we will clearly aware of this chain’s direct influence to employment, and how the trade influences this industry. A more accurate and more timely macroeconomic analysis methods: industry flow analysis, it is this bring you the content. At the same time, this article will preliminary show the application prospects: help a macroeconomic policymakers formulate policies more accurately, predict the effects of economic policy more scientific and make precise explication to trade conditions change of industrial economy, make precise explication to the influence of variation rate of industry. Finally,, combined with the concept of cash flow of industrial. The article will put forward some suggestions for China-US intellectual property protection and American industry policy. Chapter one The concept of industrial fund flow and data procurement Part one Definition of the industrial fund flow Industrial fund flow, it is a kind of currency or commercial transaction activity from one economy to another direct relevance economy through commodity production or sale behavior. the general expression is the production of commodities and related raw materials purchasing goods or service behavior. Here the monetary or equivalent commodities transaction amount namely is industrial capital flow. It has plus-minus, in flow of capital is plus, outflow is minus. The plus-minus cash flow industry can reflect a kind of relationship from one economy to the other associated economies. Also is what we call the upstream and downstream of the industry. If an economy activity will bring another economies monetary income, the former is upstream, the latter for industrial downstream. Part two data procurement of industrial fund flow In fact, it is simple for the concept and the application of this analysis, the hard point is how to get the data procurement. Currently, there is no available data you can get in whatever country, however, because it has the importance to economic activity analysis, and it is more accurate for macroeconomic analysis. So it has significant meaning, and it is also urgent needs for the current problems in the economy, such as the global economic imbalances and solving the problems of the trade disputes. Bank is the only and authoritative provider. In nowadays economic activity, 99% transaction amount is finished by the bank, and among these it is more than 50% amount is accounted for the amount of trading company all transaction. Trough the classification to companies (in fact most of companies have these classification), we can easily get the data about one kind of company’s transaction to the others. It has two situations to consider, on one side, more detailed classification, the result is more accurate, and this is the advantage of classification. We can get what we need. On the other side, we should consider the privacy. We can get the data without disclose these companies economic activities. One way to protect the privacy is:Banks should submit the related data to the central bank; bring out the data after aggregation. Chapter two Introduction to the industrial funds analysis Part one Simple analysis For example, A is a real estate, B is a cement company, A’s real estate development will make more need for B. If A invest 1000million for dwelling house, and it will purchase 100million cement from B, so we can see, cash degree of association from A to B is +10%, that is to say, per one yuan production activity will bring 0.1 yuan merchandise production for B; while, increase production of B may not bring A’s stimulation ratio, so the cash degree of association from B to A is-10% The formula as follows: Cash degree of association =B business capital?A total capital expenditures +10%=+1?|-10|×100% Suppose B needs one worker to produce 10000, so human capital relevancy is+10%?10000=+0.001%. If we call one worker costs 10000 is B’s labor capacity, then, the human resources influence as follows: human capital relevancy=(B capital income?A total capital expenditures)?B labor capacity notice:in the assumed condition, the expense of A is for all expense of developing dwelling house, including human resources costs, expenses on publicity, and B’s capital income is only the inflow funds from A, not include sales from other companies. If we suppose A is the whole real estate, and B is the whole cement company, +10% is the cash relevancy from A to B, and +0.001% is the human capital relevancy from A to B. In my view, china’s 9 billion rescue market plan has so rapidly effect, just because it all invest the wide range associatively company and with its high human capital relevancy, such as the foundation building, real estate and so on. If we can get that data, china will not be passive to the media comment. Part two Industrial risk predictive parsing Market economic activities are numerous and complex, make truly comprehensive analysis of various industries is almost impossible. But the shortcomings of the market economy itself requires us intervene economy in the market in some special cases. To intervene in the market economy, we must first identify the problems accurately, and then make the macroeconomic policies after predicting the effectiveness of policies; such a policy can be more effectively intervening market economy. We still use the data said before, and further more we suppose A’s housing investment is 1billon, and increase the investment every year as 8% speed increment, we can get the investment speed is also 8% for B, if surpass this speed, there will be over production, less than that it will not satisfy the needs. As for the microeconomic decision maker, if B surpass 8%, it should be limited to precaution the risk, if it is less than 8%, it will regulated by market. Although we can aware the risk of the overproduction, but we cannot get the related data on time, so it is impossible to give the predict of industrial risk. For the monitoring of industry risk, industry capital flow data is particularly important. Although the 2008 economic crisis caused by a variety factors. And governments cannot timely predict and limit overheating investment. It is the root cause of economic crises! Further, if governments detect the anomalies in the economic, though it cannot claim to avoided, but at least it can be reduced to a minimum range. Part three consumer industrial risk predictive analysis In part two we discussed the restrictive from A business-to-B production activities, but it is incomplete, because there is overproduction of A Company. A is at the top level in the A, B industrial chain, that it would direct to consumers. Therefore, the measure of whether the overproduction of A company will no longer be through the flow of funds between enterprises for analysis, but should be A company's sales revenue of the industry, as its cash flow. From the bank point of view, make the total capital inflows as an industry fund flow data. the more desirable data is the residential merchandising capital inflows. A company's investment activities will certainly be changes in the same proportion of its sales revenue, and the difference between the two should be equal to, or should not exceed a limit, this limit is actually A business risk control line. So far of this section, we actually have established a complete industrial chain, which is: Consumer -> A Company -> B Company. Part four How to determine the industrial chain and which is the most important As previously said, the market economic activities are numerous and complex, we can only control of key industries, which we need to filter out through the scientific method the greatest impact on our economy, industry and the establishment of the industrial chain for the industry data! In fact to determine which industries are the most important is not difficult, just compare the total amount of its GDP will be able to be seen! Through this industry Flow of funds analysis, compared to its total flows, we can draw conclusions! In determining good key industries, through cash flow investigation, we can get the specific relationship between the industrial chains, and then through the banking industry flows data, after check the total industrial chain .Then, you can get the chain framework and get forecasts based on the combination of data, monitoring and policy effects of macroeconomic! Chapter three profound level of this analysis Part one bank credit performance analysis Banks in today's economic activities occupy a unique and important role, but the banks themselves have serious limitations: In the case of an overheated economy, the banks due to the favorable bias in the forecasts of economic, but more easy lending; in the economic crisis, Bank lending in order to reduce the risk of downgrade. We can say that every economic crisis, banks in fact played a role in fueling, it enlarge the economy but to accelerate its bubble burst! And it in turn also explains the unique nature of China's economy; its unique banking system is able to minimize the risk of downgrade economic system! But more careful analysis, we can still see that China's banks and foreign banks are in common, because of the risk control preferences, in the economic crisis, banks objectively weak economy has accelerated the destruction of industries or small and medium enterprises. Through industrial funds flow analysis, we can easily find that in the economic crisis, there are some falling companies but they have significant influence to employment or throughout the industry chain. These industry profit margins are generally lower, but employment has been relatively large. If you encounter a time when the economic crisis, fiscal and monetary policies through targeted credit support to stimulate the economy will play an effective and efficient The United States General Motors, China's textile industry, are representative of such incidents. The Sanlu incident on the impact of dairy farmers, if not the event itself caused by the special nature of government I believe China's dairy products will be distressed because of the shortage of raw materials . This time the Chinese government 9 trillion bailout program part of the funds into the stock market caused by speculation, I think that in the present circumstances, that are reasonable, and it is understandable, because a pot of porridge you cannot ask it does not have a sand. But if we could through the accurate analysis of specific industries to find relatively weak link, and then introduced a targeted bank credit guide policy, and perhaps it would be better. Capital flows to more funds industry. In addition to downgrading the effects of policies, waste of financial .the excess part of the investment of funds caused by overheating and possible speculation on the crisis in the economy, particularly in risk. Part two Industrial risk profile in terms of trade As trade is widespread in the economic activities, it is suggested that put this article into the first chapter will be more reasonable, but I feel that the contents of the first chapter thorough enough, the terms of trade is only the extension of the scope of application, and industry, there are human capital-flow analysis the scarcity of resources conditions, a floating exchange rate conditions, the credit crunch conditions, a variety of applications, it still insists on this section, hope you will understand what I practice! Under the terms of trade, assuming that the first chapter of A company has increased its cement importers engaged in the cement company to purchase C-channels, due to the import of cement and cement industries will inevitably lead to downgrading of employment, out of the job market protection, we need to build 1 and B-level enterprise-class virtual trading account, which is not the downstream industry chain, and human capital correlation coefficient of 0. The best trading environment for B is that even in the presence of C Company; B Company continues to maintain a certain level of production, better terms of trade is the B Company continued positive growth. The harsh terms of trade is the production of B Company shrink or even stop production, cash flow reflected in sustained reductions in the amount or even 0! I support the competitive advantage of trade theory, which is efficient allocation of economic resources, the best channels. However, when changes in the terms of trade led to the rapid decline in the number of jobs within a short time, and directly threaten the market reallocation of resources under the condition of the feature, then the trade is extremely dangerous. How is the reasonable trade condition? My suggestion is that if the B’s job loss is in the scope of the highest unemployment rate, then the terms of trade is reasonable. Within a certain period of time a country's highest unemployment rate in the country in this time period, the market economy system, characteristics, that is, even if B Company C Company led to the bankruptcy, if the unemployment rate in the industry in a certain range, we can still considered to be the country's systematic risk, not part of C Company led to the terms of trade caused by the change. Of course, C Company of imports of goods also should be consistent with the principles of fair trade that is not made under conditions of non-market an unfair trade advantage. In this paper, here, actually made a trade arbitration proposal that the circumstances under which the trade competitiveness, trade arbitration body should be supported! Part three Industrial risk profile in exchange rate fluctuations Generally speaking, exchange rate movements can bring changes in the terms of trade, but this is simply got from the trading price comparison. In fact, the exchange rate movements affect the trade commodity prices, and the impact on the industry chain of funding is particularly important. Let’s take the currency devaluation as an example, assume that A's export trade business enterprises, B enterprises is for foreign suppliers of raw materials, under normal circumstances, A business cash is a million, of which 6 million need to purchase raw materials. A company if the host countries devalued their currencies to stimulate exports 20% of the enterprises to purchase raw materials, then A must pay 8 million, and it will increase 20% of the raw material purchasing expenditures, while the A corporate export prices did not rise, thus resulting in decreased profitability and short-term funding constraints, which led to operational difficulties of business. The Asian financial crisis, South Korea takes the devaluation also proved the existence of such a situation. Therefore, if the Government's decision is to devalue the national currency, it must take measures to protect its own industry which has a large impact to economic. Based on the cash flow analysis of the industry, then the government needs to inject in the industry, the industry increased spending on foreign trade balance in order to prevent the short-term operating difficulties of the industry. More precise policy is: For the export-based economy, funds should be injected into the country that has a competitive advantage in industries of trade, without competitive industries in this will be the gradual decline of the currency devaluation and even die; for large-scale integrated economies, they should also take into account non-trade competitive advantage in an integrated industry associated with the bankruptcy of other industry factors affecting the cost of raw materials, as well as the unemployment rate caused by the impact of bankruptcy. A better proposal is that the Government should be gradual currency devaluation. The main effect of currency appreciation funds from the industry chain, to consider, in fact the greatest short-term impact of foreign importers. Then the Government can take to respond to the measures to help foreign importers to import their own products, long-term impact ultimately reflected in the prices of traded goods competitiveness. In contrast, the systemic risk caused by currency appreciation relative to the currency devaluation is smaller. Chapter four other policy and suggestion to the industrial capital flow Part one make a different between film video and IT for china and US intellectual property protection The United States has hoped that China have a more positive development in protecting intellectual property rights, but the United States should understand China's difficulties, especially in the IT software. China's IT industry is still very weak, but in recent years, China IT industry has achieved rapid development, its impact in employment cannot be ignored. However, if in full accordance with the U.S. IT purchase pirated software, then there will be a conservative estimate of more than 30% of the IT enterprises in bankruptcy, and significantly improve the threshold of IT industry. If the United States has no intention to understand the special nature of China's economy exert pressure on the Chinese Government, which to some extent a State monopoly in the market of another country's economy racketeering acts of banditry, that is not mature and mutually beneficial trade practices of countries. Therefore, either the United States to reach an understanding on China's piracy, or the United States IT software needs to develop the corresponding pricing strategies for the Chinese market. This is not the Government's will, but the reality of China's economy demands that the U.S. government must face. But for Television and Entertainment Licensing copyright, intellectual property protection in China cannot be too worried. First Entertainment is not necessary to produce elements of production activities, while intellectual property protection in China will play a positive role in promoting healthy development of film and television entertainment industry. While the IT software, in most cases is not even the upstream and downstream industries. Part two Unite States should reformulate industrial policy to agree with their national conditions After the Failure of Plaza Accord, the United States should think their own deep-rooted problems of industrial policies in a comprehensive and profound way, rather than simply blame Japan or China, which is unfair, and it cannot really solve the problem. On the one hand, the U.S. economy is highly concentrated in services and high-tech, high salary levels greatly enhanced America's labor costs, which impact the traditional low-wage industries, and lead to the gradual disappearance of traditional industries. On the other hand, there are many high-risk financial speculations in the industry, as its representative bank service trade. These industries are extremely easy to form investment bubble when the economy overheated, and easily lead to unevenly distributed funds in the market economy. More importantly, these financial services industry cannot produce goods for export, once the bubble burst; it is extremely difficult to return to normal. The views of reference are: 1 vigorously support the traditional industries which created jobs; 2 continue to support for film and television entertainment; 3 introduce alien workers in order to help degrade the cost of labor resources; 4 strengthen supervision of financial services, strictly control excessive investment in the financial services industry; 5 further strengthen trade relations between emerging economies and strengthen high-tech product exports. The above points are made against the characteristics of the U.S. economy, if the method is made according to the present situation with the U.S. economy itself ,it will develop a broader, more scientific, more targeted industrial promotion policy, at that time the American people should celebrate that the train has finally returned to its own right on track. Nevertheless, in the foreseeable 3-5 years, the U.S. financial sector will remain stagnant. Chapter five conclusions Concerning the capital flows in property sector, because of my reading limitations, I haven’t heard any other author has put forward the same concept, and I know something about the Industry Economics. If you have the same view as mine, please contact me in case of ignorant mistakes. My attention was held on industry analysis since my graduation paper about the influence of exchange rate to the industry. Though this analyzing method to the capital flows in property sector was still obscure to me then, and I had no data to support my conclusion, I didn’t write it. No practical data to be the analyzing basis is the biggest flaw in the paper, however, easier analyzing method could clearly explain the using method of the capital flows and it has reached the aim in my view. If anyone has any questions or misunderstanding, just ask! About other applications of the capital flows in property sector, I will write them on my blog. The bibliography is on the attached sheet. 张会军 Mail:havenzhang@msn.cn Blog: 2009/9/14 附页 参考文献 《产业经济学》-杨建文主编，上海社会科学院出版社出版 百度百科食物链名词解释- 百度百科广场名词解释- 《娱乐经济》(美)沃尔夫 著