房价久涨必跌 房地产拐点将引发金融危机-房地产-金融危机-GDP_新浪财经_新浪网中英对照

房价久涨必跌 房地产拐点将引发金融危机-房地产-金融危机-GDP_新浪财经_新浪网中英对照 房价久涨必跌 房地产拐点将引发金融危机|房地产|金融危机|GDP_新浪财经_新浪网 The 3 quarterly GDP of Chinese that just announced last week are added fast for 7.8% , faster than 2 quarters 0.3 percent, anticipate annual economy is added fast will maintain in 7.5% above, steady growth target can be finished smoothly. But while economy maintains faster growth, whether is economic structure issue improved, whether does financial venture issue problem of demote deep administrative levels to need to pay close attention to more. Steady growth relies on to take old road again: Add lever, enlarge to produce can from " 3 drive carriage " GDP of before be opposite 3 quarters grows (the contribution of 7.7%) looks, consumption was contributed 3.5% , keep stable, investment was contributed 4.3% continue to rise, the contribution of exit is - 0.1% , continue to drop, explain abroad economy is going lever, of domestic economy rebound those who lean is to invest to add lever once more. Invest in fixed assets in forming, manufacturing industry investment is added fast rise the fastest, add fast from 16.5% rise to 20.6% , become economy to rebound to basically be contributed, but look from logic, this meeting aggravate is produced can superfluous; The real estate of 3 quarters and capital construction investment add fast have litre have fall: Although investment of estate of before 3 quarters is added fast compared to the same period somewhat fall after a rise, but data will appear apparent ascendant impetus again September, hopeful continues to prop up whole society fixed assets to invest growth; But capital construction investment will be added in September fast from 29.4% fall to 21.6% , basically result from the investment that make use is added fast glide, this also with in waiting, fall after a rise of grab utilization rate will watch data to answer relatively in September. 3 quarters economy is added fast pick up, with the support that standing conference will offer the State Council June infrastructure of railroad, city, shanty town is transformed, a series of steady growth step that the domain such as 4G, environmental protection invests are concerned, although these steady growth invest a domain to occupy fixed assets to invest specific gravity,be only 8.12% , but analyse by neuter circumstance, its will be pulled move economy of second half of the year to add fast about 0.3% . But in the long run, because the strength to economic structural adjustment is not great from beginning to end, reason investment benefit makes a person anxious however. From September industrial n considerably the data of fall after a rise looks, four quarters economy is added fast should meet somewhat fall after a rise, but short-term inside the sign that cannot see sex of economic happening trend perhaps is down up it seems that. Chinese economy still faces the pressure that produces dimensions of can superfluous, debt to go up. Market money rate goes up reflective banking venture promotes economy of before this year 3 quarters to add fast all be with before last year 3 quarters 7.7% , but the level of market money rate this year rises apparently however, expression is on bond market, it is debt yield level goes up, at present the credit benefit difference of Chinese bond already was in historical lowest. The reason depends on, the cost of financial orgnaization capital such as the bank after interest rate is commercialized, insurance rises considerably, consequently the requirement carries higher return rate in asset. Statistic shows, what insurance endowment is in charge of this year is new add interest rate debt to invest for 0, capital basically increases the capital is not mark that distributed high income. Of the mark that bank conduct financial transactions basically configures also dispute prize asset and high income debt. And because recessive credence of the government assures,be run rampant to use, expire the convention that bond majority is rigid cash, after the head that the credit risk consciousness of investor is thrown, brought about credit benefit to drop poorly considerably. Form contrast with level of market money rate, be company profit level glide. Before this year 3 quarters, 500 strong companies of Chinese are average profit margin only 4.34% , than last year the corresponding period falls 0.33 percent, the return rate that economy can offer is in drop, but the social capital cost that the delegate is with bond interest rate since 3 quarters rises considerably continuously, make clear tall indebted the rigid demand of next industry financing, aux would rather to pay principal and interest pay higher interest rate. In bringing about the element that interest rate goes up, commercialize besides interest rate besides, the rapid growth of debt total dimensions, repay captital with interest every year of dimensions expand, also be main factor. Estimate whole 2013 society repay captital with interest the forehead exceeds 5 trillion, only with fiducial for exemple, the beginning of the year has two dimensions to achieve the project of nearly 1.2 billion to expire this year fail pay principal and interest and auction mortgage assets, enter judicatory to auction. According to statistic, fiducial 2013 industry expires product total dimensions already was close to 500 billion yuan, cash pressure is greater. With respect to insurance industry character, at present of insurance company add insurance cost cost newly to be in about 6% the left and right sides, but 2012 60 thousand more the investment gain rate of danger endowment only 3.39% , of cost and accrual hang, force insurance to configure the creditor's rights that be not mark in great quantities. At present blame mark dimensions has exceeded 160 billion, and the yield of low venture capital such as national debt has been close to historical perch, still lack person make inquires, result from the to high income fanaticism below competitive environment. Short-term market competition makes money of the bad on risk management drives out fine money, will bury next huge risks to financial system in the long run, this and United States second borrow the behavior be exactly the same that financial orgnaization fanaticism configures ABS bond before the crisis. Financial crisis erupts time depends on when does estate appear inflection point after 2008, indebted rate enters Chinese economy whole to rise quickly level, always be in debt / GDP comes from 197% litres of 2008 2013 286% of 3 quarters, among them company department is indebted / GDP comes from 85% litres 121% , deposit of financial department blame is indebted / GDP comes from 62% litres 88% , the government sector is indebted / GDP comes from 31% litres 43%(among them the) of 10 trillion computation that local debt announces with the government, dweller branch is indebted / GDP comes from 18% litres 35% . What the specification needs here is, total indebted dimensions and developed country photograph are compared, do not calculate big, and also have among them duplicate a part. And from the point of economic whole, indebted rate is positive under 100% , because its are equal,be in at social finance capital total assets is occupied mediumly than. But here has two respects to need to cause take seriously, was 2008 before, always be in debt / the change of GDP is not big, it is a curve that makes the same score almost, but 2008 up to now 5 years short in, total debt is added fast 45% what exceed nominal GDP unexpectedly, so high debt increases rate, belong to the whole world infrequent. 2 it is the distributinging unbalance that is in debt as a result of finance, can make finance of some economy main body indebted and overmuch, bring about debt interest to exceed capital income, can make its cash flows become negative to lose hematopoiesis ability thereby. Will appear for a time June this year " Qian Huang " the crisis, fault of financial product deadline deserves to bring about structural unbalance and its also are caused constitutionally. Because be in debt,always answer relatively with asset, of enterprise, government and dweller indebted, below the financial system that gives priority to with the bank in China, corresponding much is the asset of the bank, and the asset of the bank is formed with quality, decided the size of bank risk. In the asset pawn that at present the bank obtains, basically be estate. Connect researcher of negotiable securities banking to wear annals peak statistic according to the sea, in the loan inside bank watch, mortgage loan to occupy 13% , development is borrowed and the building is borrowed occupy 10% , platform of local government financing is occupied 15.2% , reason the loan of 38% is mixed with estate directly financing platform is relevant; In the loan inside the watch, 54% it is mortgage loan. The loan outside the watch of the bank predicts to be 13-16 -727379968, among them 70% the left and right sides is cast to estate and financing platform. This shows, the prospective value of land and house property changes, decided the risk of bank assets is spent basically. Accordingly, the time of estate occurrence inflection point, basically the time that corresponding also China produces debt crisis. It is to be based on estate to be opposite probably of Chinese economy hold the balance influence, the government is this year on policy of estate adjusting control, also send more cautious, wary inadvertent, plateful all is defeated. If going on the conference of the Political Bureau of year end, the requirement that raises to estate is " strengthen estate market adjusting control and housing safeguard job " ; But conference of the Political Bureau will be carried only July this year " smooth health develops stimulative estate market " , did not allude adjusting control. However, house price of China goes this year situation on the whole still very driving, go up bigger, the space that future drops is larger also. Review 5 years of programs that Chinese all previous establishs, it is GDP add fast target to be set lowlier, the purpose is to move economy of structure, change to develop way. But fulfil every a particular year, added GDP fast target to increase again. For instance, this year is 925 programs the 3rd year when carry out, GDP of before two years is added fast exceed or be close to 8% , prep above plans to expect an end a percent. And decide the goal of steady growth again however this year in 7.5% , below this target, moving a structure is impossible to carry out almost, and of enterprise, government and dweller debt dimensions add fast will still maintain higher level, this is building up again financial venture. When housing serves as the consumable that lives oneself, more of its price level and level of income of the person that buy a house or hire level are relevant; And turn into when housing when investment is tasted, its price is more suffer all sorts of anticipation to affect. Current, estate had bound Chinese economy, reason investor also expects the policy of estate adjusting control that won't publish severity to administration, and local government is not willing to hit more press estate to forfeit land income source, this is house price continues to climb the reason ? ? that rise big and cannot fall. But want to know, the wave motion of administrative adjusting control to asset value, final be invalidation, long the estate bubble that goes up to drop surely is undone case, in the whole world do not have one escape by sheer luck. Accordingly, the happening of financial venture time, may not depends on debt dimensions has how old, basically depend on however when does the inflection point of price wave motion of some kind of asset of indebted place correspondence appear. And the deepness that financial crisis erupts and range, depend on the indebted leverage level of the extent with fluctuant value of this kind of asset and place correspondence. The result of audit of governmental sex debt that second half of the year starts is about to announce, we beforehand dimensions of appraise place debt is in 14 trillion - 18 trillion between, the specification is annual of local debt dimensions add fast more than 10% , the bubble of its correspondence asset enlarges speed to also should exceed two digit. If always do not agree to go piercing bubble, delay tone construction with the name of steady growth however, criterion henceforth the outbreak of financial crisis energy level will be higher and higher. So, the risk is released earlier, meet what be helpful for economy more anabiosis. Make figure of speech of a figure, if financial crisis will appear inside 3 years henceforth, crisis level is relatively low, be helpful for China quickening reform pace, china is hopeful still henceforth cross Euramerican wait for good-paying state ranks. If bubble of occurrence estate of the ability after 5 years is undone, consume just needed basic and extinct, china enters the probability that medium income defect enters to increase greatly, chinese economy can become Latin America only probably.