俄罗斯远东地区

俄罗斯远东地区 俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区未来发展趋势中的悖论及其对中俄关系的影响 通过对位于欧洲与亚洲之间的俄罗斯民族的心理认同差异的，笔者提出了俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区未来发展趋势中存在的真空化与东方化的悖论;然后分析了这种悖论产生的根本原因，以及对中俄关系可能产生的各种影响;在此基础上对我国未来处理中俄关系提出了若干政策建议。 一、悖论产生的背景 俄罗斯是欧洲国家还是亚洲国家呢,这是个很复杂的问。俄罗斯族所属的东斯拉夫人种来自欧洲，但是俄罗斯的领土四分之三在亚洲，西伯利亚和远东地区蕴藏着极其丰富的石油、煤炭、金属、木材等资源;彼得大帝把西欧的文明引入到了俄罗斯，但是对俄罗斯历史文化和民族心理产生过巨大影响的金帐汗国却是由亚洲的蒙古人建立的;欧洲人很难接受俄罗斯作为一个欧洲国家，亚洲人当然也不会把他们当成亚洲国家。 从俄罗斯民族的心理认同上说，绝大部分俄罗斯人都认为他们是欧洲人，或者认为他们既不属于欧洲也不属于亚洲，但是基本上没有俄罗斯人认为他们是属于亚洲人。 俄罗斯对欧洲与亚洲的这种认同差异，直接影响了他们对俄罗斯亚洲部分(西伯利亚和远东地区)的各项经济政治implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 政策，并且形成了西伯利亚和远东地区未来发展趋势中的一个很难解决的悖论。 二.真空化与东方化的悖论 俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区距离作为其经济政治核心区域的欧洲部分非常遥远;尤其是远东地区，与莫斯科和圣彼得堡等中心城市的经济联系更是薄弱。相反，西伯利亚和远东地区与东亚国家之间的经济贸易活动却与日俱增，加上被某些俄罗斯媒体宣传扩大的远东地区我国移民问题，这一切都在俄罗斯国内引起了不小的争议，部分俄罗斯人甚至认为西伯利亚和远东地区有脱离俄罗斯联邦的发展趋势。 这个问题的根本原因是由于俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区未来发展趋势中存在一个悖论，即真空化与东方化的悖论。 所谓真空化，是指在俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区经济增长速度乏力的情况下，出现的人口自然增长率下降和俄罗斯族人口向欧洲回流的趋势，使该地区本来已经很低的人口密度继续下降，从而导致的有庞大土地面积却无人居住的情况。从当前情况来看，这种趋势已经开始出现。当然，这种趋势是俄罗斯中央政府所不愿意看到的，但是西伯利亚和远东地区人口减少的趋势在短期内又是俄罗斯中央政府难以阻止的。 所谓东方化，是指俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区未来经济implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 社会发展中必然要面对的与亚洲国家日益频繁的经济政治联系，以及由此带来的与东方文明更多的接触交流。从长期来看，这种经济文化的交流将使俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区在经济文化上与东亚地区逐步走向融合。这也是俄罗斯中央政府所不愿意看到的另一个发展趋势。 如果俄罗斯中央政府对西伯利亚和远东地区的外来经济贸易投资和外来劳动力采取严格的限制措施，当然可以做到把所有没有俄罗斯国籍的人都排除出该地区;但是这样的措施无异于就是我国在1840年之前采取的对外国策，必将导致俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区的经济倒退和社会发展停滞不前，带来更为严重的人口自然增长率下降和人口向欧洲部分回流的趋势;最终将使西伯利亚和远东地区走向真空化的陷阱。 如果俄罗斯中央政府对西伯利亚和远东地区采取较为宽松的对外开放政策，以其丰富的资源储备和便利的沿海港口，必将会吸引大量的来自东亚国家的外来投资，也将会吸引大量的来自东亚国家的劳动力来此就业，最终将大大提高西伯利亚和远东地区与东亚国家的贸易联系，使该地区走向经济现代化;这样一来西伯利亚和远东地区就没有了真空化的陷阱，但是又会出现另一个令俄罗斯担心的趋势，即亚洲移民带来的东方化问题。 从实际情况看，面对这样一个两难选择时，俄罗斯中央implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 政府也是在左右摇摆，没有具体的应对策略。为了满足该地区各级地方政府和当地居民对经济发展的要求，俄罗斯中央政府经常作出各种态和政策讲话，但是落实到行动上时总是因为各种理由而停滞不前。从俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区的周边情况来看，日本和韩国都是世界上主要的对外投资输出国，但都是国土狭小、资源贫乏;我国是世界上劳动力资源最丰富的国家，但是许多重要资源和能源的人均拥有量都很低，而我国经济的快速增长对国外矿产资源和能源的需求量又在与日俱增;俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区国土辽阔，森林、淡水、石油、天然气等重要资源的储备都十分丰富，但是由于俄罗斯国内劳动力缺乏和投资环境不佳，它们基本上都处于待开发状态。俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区与周边国家的这种巨大的优势互补性，再加上其先天性的地理位置，决定了该地区如果要走上经济发展的快车道，必然要选择和东亚各国深入开展经济贸易合作交流。 三.悖论存在的主要原因 俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区未来发展趋势中存在的真空化与东方化的悖论,有其深刻的历史原因和现实因素。 首先, 西伯利亚和远东地区在历史上人类活动相对稀少，并且是由于沙皇俄国18-19世纪的不断扩张而被并入俄罗斯版图的。虽然经过沙俄和苏联时期几次大规模的移民开implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 发，大量原来居住在俄罗斯欧洲部分的俄罗斯族居民进入西伯利亚和远东地区，但是该地区的经济社会发展程度仍然较低，居民生活水平也比较低。苏联解体后，持续的经济不景气使得俄罗斯更加没有力量对该地区进行大规模投资开发，该地区的俄罗斯移民选择迁移回欧洲部分，便成为再自然不过的事情。 其次，俄罗斯在跨过乌拉尔山之前，本质上是一个信仰东正教的欧洲国家，而西伯利亚和远东地区当地的原住民族大多信仰萨满教或原始宗教，大部分过着游牧或渔猎生活，他们在文化认同上和俄罗斯差距巨大，却和东亚国家有较深的文化渊源。例如，现在俄罗斯的布里亚特共和国的主体民族为蒙古族，是典型的东方民族;萨哈共和国的雅库特人和图瓦共和国的图瓦人也是这种情况?。虽然后来的沙皇俄国与前苏联一直推行强制性的民族同化政策和大规模的民族迁徙政策，很多少数民族也出现了斯拉夫化的现象，但是总体上说，西伯利亚和远东地区当地的原住民族和外来的俄罗斯移民并未能较好地走向融合。随着苏联的解体和亚洲经济的复兴，这些原住民族也逐渐意识到了和东方国家发展经济政治文化等全方位合作的必然性，向东开放的要求也越来越迫切。 最后，还有一个重要的因素，由于俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区的亚洲邻国(除蒙古外)都是人口总量和人口密度很implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 大的国家，如中国、日本、韩国等;并且经济发展水平或经济发展速度都要超过俄罗斯;这些都使俄罗斯产生了本能的防止亚洲人或黄种人渗透的思想。例如，俄罗斯某些媒体上经常会提到“黄祸”一词，便是此种心态的最好例证。 这种真空化与东方化的悖论实际上也严重影响了俄罗斯的双头鹰外交政策，使俄罗斯对东亚国家产生了矛盾复杂的心态，也使得俄罗斯不能很好地实现其同时面对东方和西方并从中求得平衡的外交目标。 四.悖论对中俄关系的影响 由于中国与西伯利亚和远东地区有漫长的边境线，加上十三亿的人口总量、迅速增强的综合国力、历史上的领土争端、独特的东方文明，这些因素都导致俄罗斯人产生了对中国的复杂心态。真空化与东方化的悖论不可避免地对中俄关系产生着重大影响。 首先，一般俄罗斯人的领土观是越大越安全，不管历史上的争端如何，俄罗斯现在占有的领土就是“属于俄罗斯的”;俄罗斯认为，中俄两国虽然已经解决了全部边境问题，但是中国人心里总是想着收回十九世纪失去的土地。这种心态其实是俄罗斯历史上的扩张主义带给当代俄罗斯人的一个包袱，严重影响了中俄两国关系的深入发展。 第二，受“欧洲中心主义”和“白人中心主义”的影响，部implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 分俄罗斯媒体对西伯利亚和远东地区的中国移民数目蓄意夸大，不愿意全方位地与中国开展劳动力自由流动，甚至对中俄两国之间青年男女的通婚都抱有警惕，总是觉得中国想渗透和控制西伯利亚和远东地区，亚洲的黄种人总有一天将会把欧洲来的白种人赶回乌拉尔山以西。这些种族主义的思维使中国与俄罗斯在经济贸易投资等方面的合作不能深入开展，也限制了俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区自身的经济社会全面发展。 第三，某些俄罗斯人喜欢把东方和西方对立起来，认为自己从文化上是欧洲人，排斥亚洲文化对西伯利亚和远东地区的影响。这实质上是一种冷战式思维，把自己置身在全球化浪潮之外。这种意识对中俄两国扩大文化交流也产生了很消极的影响。 第四，从沙俄扩张年代到苏联老大哥年代，俄罗斯的国力一直强于我国，由此形成了很强的对我国的优越感;现在我国的综合国力出现了很好的上升势头，俄罗斯国内的改革却问题重重，这些都带给了俄罗斯巨大的心理反差。这种反差又经常被西方的中国威胁论鼓吹者所利用，俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区的我国移民自然就成为了这些人经常引用的威胁证据，从而影响了中俄关系的健康发展。 五.对我国未来处理中俄关系的政策建议 implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 在我国的外交关系中，中俄关系是我国最重要的双边关系之一。如何避免中俄关系不受西方国家中国威胁论的影响，对我国“和平崛起”目标的实现具有重大的战略意义。我们应该深刻地认识这种真空化与东方化的悖论对中俄两国和东北亚地区带来的各方面影响，同时可以考虑采取多种形式的措施来面对和解决这一问题: 第一，经济合作是基础，如果要加大中俄经贸投资等领域的合作力度，资金、商品、劳动力、原材料等市场经济中的各要素必须要逐步实现自由流动;真空化与东方化的悖论却使俄罗斯对与我国开展全面经贸合作顾虑重重。我们可以和俄罗斯理论界及工商界就转型国家在自由市场经济下的经济合作展开共同研究探索，为推动中俄双方的经贸合作提供理论指导。 第二，中俄农业合作应该先行。中国农业人口多而耕地少，俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区却有大片的肥沃土地无人耕种，开展对俄农业劳动力输出是今后应该优先考虑的方向;同时这也是俄罗斯对我国移民最感忧虑的一点。这种输出最好由企业领头，我国现在实行企业“走出去”战略，但是走出去的企业去俄罗斯的很少，投资农业的更少。如果以比较规范的企业跨国投资的形式与俄罗斯开展经贸合作，可以实现更大规模的对俄农业劳动力输出，也可以减少俄罗斯人对非法移民的担忧。 implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 第三，俄罗斯中央政府与西伯利亚和远东地区地方政府的利益并非完全一致，西伯利亚和远东地区出于自身利益的考虑，向东开放的要求更加强烈。我国企业的对俄投资也应该多注重对西伯利亚和远东地区的地方政府和当地居民带来实惠好处，这样既可以减少中俄经贸合作不必要的行政阻力，也可以在俄罗斯国内对中国崛起产生疑虑和争论时，争取到西伯利亚和远东地区的地方政府和当地居民的支持。 第四，利用上海合作组织全面发展与俄罗斯的合作，该组织的合作不应该只局限于政治、外交、军事等层面，可以延伸到经贸、劳务、能源、交通、文化、教育、科技等多方面的交流。通过这种规范化制度化的形式也可以为中国劳动力走出去创造较好的条件和氛围。 第五，中俄文化交流至关重要。由于历史的原因，俄罗斯文化对我国知识分子曾经产生过深刻的影响，但是我国文化对俄罗斯人的影响却很有限;这种文化交流上的不对称也是俄罗斯对中国移民抱有偏见的重要因素。今后在中俄文化交流方面，我们应该加强对外文化输出，让更多的俄罗斯人了解东方文化的博大精深。 第六，当今世界，商品、资金、人员、技术、以及思想，都在以一种越来越快的速度穿越民族国家疆界。整个世界正在迅速地相互连接在一起，正在越来越紧密地连成一个一体化的共同体和市场。我们在对俄罗斯的宣传上，应该从经济implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 全球化时代下的中俄关系着眼，多从融合、互利、共赢、一体化、经济要素自由流动等角度出发，尽量减少俄罗斯心理上对中国人的不必要的隔阂障碍;此外，我们还要加大与俄罗斯在教育方面的合作交流力度，更加重视对俄罗斯现状和未来发展趋势的研究工作。 第七，西伯利亚和远东地区能源和矿产的储备都很丰富，目前开发程度很低，这可为我国未来保持经济持续稳定增长提供必要的物质基础，更加凸显出中俄保持长期友好合作关系的重要性;中俄边境地区交通设施的改善可以促进物质人员的流通，这一点可以先从我们自己这边做起，先把中俄边境线中国一侧的交通设施改进完善，待边境地区的人流物流信息流达到一定密度，俄方在现实经济利益面前肯定要采取积极措施予以跟进。从经济合作的角度使双方达到双赢状态，可以减少俄方因“讲政治”而对中俄之间的人员物质的自由流动进行行政干预。 最后，还有一点必须指出来，不管中俄关系将来发展到什么状态，真空化与东方化的悖论在俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东地区必将长期存在，甚至可能激发出矛盾和冲突，也是中俄双方都必须要慎重考虑的问题。中国移民要想在这块辽阔的土地立足，还必须要有海纳百川的宽广心态，对俄罗斯历史文化传统和宗教风俗习惯进行接触了解;在继承和发扬中华传统文化的基础上，吸收和接纳俄罗斯文化的优秀成果，使implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and 该地区成为东西方不同文明和谐相处的典范;逐步改变原来 在国内的一些不文明不合理的生活方式，积极融入该地区的 主流社会;通过与当地居民长期的共同生活和普遍通婚，培 养和建立双方之间的牢固感情，最终实现双方谁也离不开对 方的和谐共赢状态。 implementation of technical specifications for safety and daily supervision, inspection, guidance. (3) targeted security disclosure and safety education is necessary to prevent accidents. 1, ready to enter the safety of workers in education and training education, and throughout, the whole process covering security education and training, and education and training focused on the operator's awareness of self protection. 2, in the black and the higher authorities issued instructions, targeted education. 3, take the form of diversity training and education, such as Blackboard, banners, Conference, knowledge contest, videos and so on. 4, the implementation of the construction team of safety into training and education and the usual safety education training, arena workers must go through three levels of safety education. 5, by the project managers, safety officers, foremen, safety training, education and work, safety record and establish workers ' labor protection and education summary. Safety record 1, organized by the project-related personnel prove safe and effective operation of the guarantee system safety records, including the related account, reports, records. 2, safety record by a security officer, information collection, collation, and identifying, cataloguing and