1
第三十六章
宏观经济政策的五个争论问题
Five Debates over
Macroeconomic Policy
2
宏观经济政策的五个争论问题
Five Debates over
Macroeconomic Policy
1. 货币和财政政策应该试图稳定经济吗?
Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try
to stabilize the economy?
2. 货币政策应该按规则制定还是相机抉择?
Should monetary policy be made by rule
rather than by discretion?
3. 中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗?
Should the central bank aim for zero
inflation?
3
宏观经济政策的五个争论问题
Five Debates over
Macroeconomic Policy
4. 政府应该平衡其预算吗?
Should the government balance its
budget?
5. 税法应该进行改革以鼓励储蓄吗?
Should the tax laws be reformed to
encourage saving?
4
1. 货币与财政政策制定者应该
试图稳定经济吗?
Should Monetary and Fiscal
Policymakers Try to
Stabilize the Economy?
5
赞成:政策制定者应该试图稳定经济
Pro: Policymakers should try to
stabilize the economy
经济具有内在的不稳定性,放任自流就会导致
经济波动。
The economy is inherently unstable, and left on
its own will fluctuate.
应该制定政策来管理总需求,以抵消这一内在
的不稳定性,减少经济波动的严重程度。
Policy can manage aggregate demand in order
to offset this inherent instability and reduce the
severity of economic fluctuations.
6
赞成:政策制定者应该试图稳定经济
Pro: Policymakers should try to
stabilize the economy
让社会在经济周期的高涨与低落中受煎熬,是
毫无道理的。
There is no reason for society to suffer through
the booms and busts of the business cycle.
货币与财政政策能够稳定总需求,并因而稳定
产出与就业。
Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize
aggregate demand and, thereby, production
and employment.
7
反对:政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济
Con: Policymakers should not try to
stabilize the economy
货币政策影响经济,在需要行动到这些政策发生作用
这段时间,有一个很长的、难以预测的滞后。
Monetary policy affects the economy with long and
unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time
that it takes for these policies to work.
许多研究表明,货币政策的改变在变化发生六个月后
才能对总需求有所影响。
Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy
have little effect on aggregate demand until about six
months after the change is made.
8
反对:政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济
Con: Policymakers should not try to
stabilize the economy
财政政策的作用也有时滞,因为支配着支出与
税收变更的政治程序相当漫长。
Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the
long political process that governs changes in
spending and taxes.
从提议、通过到实施财政政策的一个重大变更
可能需要若干年。
It can take years to propose, pass, and
implement a major change in fiscal policy.
9
反对:政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济
Con: Policymakers should not try to
stabilize the economy
绝非偶然地,政策制定者在不经意中,不是减
弱而是加剧了经济波动的幅度。
All too often policymakers can inadvertently
exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude
of economic fluctuations.
政策制定者要是能够消除所有的经济波动,当
然是求之不得的,但这却是一个不现实的目标
It might be desirable if policy makers could
eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is
not a realistic goal.
10
2. 货币政策应该按规则制定还
是相机抉择?
Should Monetary Policy Be
Made by Rule Rather Than
by Discretion?
11
赞成:货币政策应该按规则制定
Pro: Monetary policy should be
made by rule
相机抉择的货币政策可能因为无能和权力滥用
而遭到破坏。
Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from
incompetence and abuse of power.
中央银行家们要是和政治家们沆瀣一气,相机
抉择的政策就可能操纵经济波动以迎合大选日
期——政治经济周期
To the extent that central bankers ally
themselves with politicians, discretionary policy
can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect
the electoral calendar – the political business
cycle.
12
赞成:货币政策应该按规则制定
Pro: Monetary policy should be
made by rule
政策制定者们总是说一套,做的是另一套——称为
政策的时间不一致性(朝令夕改)。
There may be a discrepancy between what
policymakers say they will do and what they
actually do – called time inconsistency of policy.
因为政策制定者经常地时间不一致,当中央银行家
们宣布他们试图降低通胀时,人们就会产生怀疑。
Because policymakers are so often time
inconsistent, people are skeptical when central
bankers announce their intentions to reduce the
rate of inflation.
13
赞成:货币政策应该按规则制定
Pro: Monetary policy should be
made by rule
要求中央银行信守一个温和的、稳定的货币供
给的增长将限制无能、权力滥用与时间不一致
Committing the Fed to a moderate and steady
growth of the money supply would limit
incompetence, abuse of power, and time
inconsistency.
14
反对:货币政策不应该按规则制定
Con: Monetary policy should
not be made by rule
相机决策货币政策的一个重大优势在于其灵活
性。
An important advantage of discretionary
monetary policy is its flexibility.
缺乏灵活性的政策将限制政策制定者对经济环
境的变化做出反应的能力。
Inflexible policies will limit the ability of
policymakers to respond to changing economic
circumstances.
15
反对:货币政策不应该按规则制定
Con: Monetary policy should not
be made by rule
所谓决策能力和权力滥用的问题,大都
是妄加猜测。
The alleged problems with discretion and
abuse of power are largely hypothetical.
此外,政治周期是否果有其事还远没有
搞清楚。
Also, the importance of the political
business cycle is far from clear.
16
3. 中央银行是否应该以零通货
膨胀为目标?
Should The Central Bank
Aim for Zero Inflation?
17
赞成:中央银行应该以零通货膨胀为目标
Pro: The central bank should aim for
zero inflation
通货膨胀对社会不仅没有好处,还导致了严重的
真实成本。
Inflation confers no benefit to society, but it
imposes several real costs.
皮鞋成本 Shoeleather costs
菜单成本 Menu costs
加剧了相对价格的变动 Increased variability of
relative prices
税收负担的不经意的变动 Unintended changes in tax
liabilities
混乱与不便 Confusion and inconvenience
财富的任意再分配 Arbitrary redistribution of wealth
18
赞成:中央银行应该以零通胀为目标
Pro: The central bank should aim
for zero inflation
减少通货膨胀的政策以一时之代价,换得永久
的利益。
Reducing inflation is a policy with temporary
costs and permanent benefits.
一旦反通胀导致的衰退结束,零通胀的收益将
会用之不竭。
Once the disinflationary recession is over, the
benefits of zero inflation would persist.
19
反对:中央银行不应该以零通胀为目标
Con: The central bank should not aim
for zero inflation
零通胀很可能是难以实现的,为了达到它所涉
及的产出、失业与社会成本将会相当高。
Zero inflation is probably unattainable, and to
get there involves output, unemployment, and
social costs that are too high.
政策制定者能够降低通胀的许多成本,而无需
真的去降低通胀。
Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of
inflation without actually reducing inflation.
20
4. 财政政策应该减少
政府债务吗?
Should Fiscal Policymakers
reduce the Government
Debt?
21
赞成:政府应该平衡其预算
Pro: The government should
balance its budget
预算赤字提高了未来各代的税收、降低他们的收入,
对他们施加了不公平的负担。
Budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on
future generations by raising their taxes and lowering
their incomes.
当债务和累计的利息到期时,未来的纳税人将面临困
难的选择。
When the debts and accumulated interest come due,
future taxpayers will face a difficult choice:
他们要么支付更高的税收,要么享用更少的政府支出,要么
二者都有。
They can pay higher taxes, enjoy less government spending, or
both.
22
赞成:政府应该平衡其预算
Pro: The government should
balance its budget
当前政府受益,而未来各代买单,这对未来的纳
税人不公平。
By shifting the cost of current government
benefits to future generations, there is a bias
against future taxpayers.
赤字减少了国民储蓄,导致更小的资本存量,降
低了生产率与增长。
Deficits reduce national saving, leading to a
smaller stock of capital, which reduces
productivity and growth.
23
反对:政府不应该平衡其预算
Con: The government should
not balance its budget
赤字的问题常常被夸大。
The problem with the deficit is often
exaggerated.
将债务转嫁给未来也许是合理的,因为政府购
买产生的收益将延及未来。
The transfer of debt to the future may be
justified because some government purchases
produce benefits well into the future.
24
反对:政府不应该平衡其预算
Con: The government should
not balance its budget
政府债务可以持续增加,因为人口增长和技术
进步增加了国家支付债务利息的能力。
The government debt can continue to rise
because population growth and technological
progress increase the nation’s ability to pay the
interest on the debt.
25
5. 税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄吗?
Should The Tax Laws Be
Reformed to Encourage
Saving?
26
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Pro: Tax laws should be
reformed to encourage saving
一国储蓄率是长期经济繁荣的关键决定因素。
A nation’s saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run
economic prosperity.
一国生产能力主要取决于它储蓄和为未来投资多少。
A nation’s productive capability is determined largely by
how much it saves and invests for the future.
当储蓄率高时,就可以有更多资源投资于新的工厂和设备
When the saving rate is higher, more resources are
available for investment in new plant and equipment.
27
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Pro: Tax laws should be reformed
to encourage saving
美国税收体系在很多方面都抑制了储蓄,例如
对得自资本的收入课以重税,降低财富积聚者
所获的利益。
The U.S. tax system discourages saving in many
ways, such as by heavily taxing the income
from capital and by reducing benefits for those
who have accumulated wealth.
28
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Pro: Tax laws should be reformed
to encourage saving
高资本收入税的后果是降低了储蓄、资
本积累,从而降低了劳动生产率和经济
增长。
The consequences of high capital income
tax policies are reduced saving, reduced
capital accumulation, lower labor
productivity, and reduced economic
growth.
29
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Pro: Tax laws should be
reformed to encourage saving
许多经济学家提出以消费税代替现有的税收政策
An alternative to current tax policies advocated by
many economists is a consumption tax.
通过消费税,家庭仅根据其支出而非所得来纳税
With a consumption tax, a household pays taxes
based on what it spends not on what it earns.
收入中用来储蓄的部分是免税的,除非它以后被取出并
用来消费。
Income that is saved is exempt from taxation until the
saving is later withdrawn and spent on consumption
goods.
30
反对:税法不应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Con: Tax laws should not be
reformed to encourage saving
鼓励储蓄的税法变更大多便宜了富人。
Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate
saving would primarily benefit the wealthy.
高收入家庭比低收入家庭储蓄了收入中的更大部分
High-income households save a higher fraction of
their income than low-income households.
使储蓄者受益的税法变更也倾向于使高收入的人受
益。
Any tax change that favors people who save will also
tend to favor people with high incomes.
31
反对:税法不应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Con: Tax laws should not be
reformed to encourage saving
减轻富人的税收负担将导致一个更不平
等的社会。
Reducing the tax burden on the wealthy
would lead to a less egalitarian society.
这也会迫使政府增加穷人的税收负担。
This would also force the government to
raise the tax burden on the poor.
32
反对:税法不应该改革以鼓励储蓄
Con: Tax laws should not be
reformed to encourage saving
通过消除政府预算赤字增加公共储蓄,提供了
一个更为直接和平等的方式来增加国民储蓄。
Raising public saving by eliminating the
government’s budget deficit would provide a
more direct and equitable way to increase
national saving.
33
总结
Summary
积极货币与财政政策的提倡者认为经济是内在不稳
定的,他们相信可以运用政策来抵消这一内在不稳
定性。
Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view
the economy as inherently unstable and believe
policy can be used to offset this inherent instability.
积极政策的批评者强调政策影响经济有一定时滞,
我们预测未来经济状况的能力非常有限,这些都使
得政策本身是破坏稳定的。
Critics of active policy emphasize that policy affects
the economy with a lag and our ability to forecast
future economic conditions is poor, both of which
can lead to policy being destabilizing.
34
总结
Summary
为货币政策制定规则的提倡者认为,相机抉择
的政策会因无能、权力滥用和时间不一致而受
破坏。
Advocates of rules for monetary policy argue
that discretionary policy can suffer from
incompetence, abuse of power, and time
inconsistency.
为货币政策制定规则的批评者认为,相机抉择
的政策在对经济环境做出反应上更为灵活。
Critics of rules for monetary policy argue that
discretionary policy is more flexible in
responding to economic circumstances.
35
总结
Summary
零通胀目标的提倡者强调,通货膨胀有许多代
价,而好处寥寥。
Advocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize
that inflation has many costs and few if any
benefits.
零通胀目标的批评者宣称,适度通胀只对社会
造成很小的代价,而降低通胀所必须的衰退反
而代价甚高。
Critics of a zero-inflation target claim that
moderate inflation imposes only small costs on
society, whereas the recession necessary to
reduce inflation is quite costly.
36
总结
Summary
降低政府债务的提倡者认为,债务让未来各代
承受负担,加重了他们的税收,减少了他们的
收入。
Advocates of reducing the government debt
argue that the debt imposes a burden on future
generations by raising their taxes and lowering
their incomes.
降低政府债务的批评者认为,债务只是财政赤
字中的一个小问题。
Critics of reducing the government debt argue
that the debt is only one small piece of fiscal
policy.
37
总结
Summary
通过税收刺激储蓄的提倡者指出,我们的社会通过向
资本收入课税、减少财富积累者的收益等许多方式抑
制了储蓄。
Advocates of tax incentives for saving point out that
our society discourages saving in many ways such as
taxing income from capital and reducing benefits for
those who have accumulated wealth.
税收激励的批评者认为,许多提议中的刺激储蓄的变
革主要使富人受益,同时对私人储蓄影响不大。
Critics of tax incentives argue that many proposed
changes to stimulate saving would primarily benefit
the wealthy and also might have only a small effect on
private saving.
第三十六章
宏观经济政策的五个争论问题�Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
宏观经济政策的五个争论问题Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
1. 货币与财政政策制定者应该试图稳定经济吗? Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize the Economy?
赞成:政策制定者应该试图稳定经济Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
赞成:政策制定者应该试图稳定经济Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
反对:政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
反对:政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济�Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
反对:政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
2. 货币政策应该按规则制定还是相机抉择? Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by Discretion?
赞成:货币政策应该按规则制定Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
赞成:货币政策应该按规则制定Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
赞成:货币政策应该按规则制定Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
反对:货币政策不应该按规则制定Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule
反对:货币政策不应该按规则制定Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule
中央银行是否应该以零通货膨胀为目标?�Should The Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?
赞成:中央银行应该以零通货膨胀为目标Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation
赞成:中央银行应该以零通胀为目标Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation
反对:中央银行不应该以零通胀为目标Con: The central bank should not aim for zero inflation
财政政策应该减少�政府债务吗?�Should Fiscal Policymakers reduce the Government Debt?
赞成:政府应该平衡其预算�Pro: The government should balance its budget
赞成:政府应该平衡其预算�Pro: The government should balance its budget
反对:政府不应该平衡其预算Con: The government should not balance its budget
反对:政府不应该平衡其预算Con: The government should not balance its budget
5. 税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄吗?Should The Tax Laws Be Reformed to Encourage Saving?
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄�Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄�Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving
赞成:税法应该改革以鼓励储蓄Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving
反对:税法不应该改革以鼓励储蓄Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving
反对:税法不应该改革以鼓励储蓄Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving
反对:税法不应该改革以鼓励储蓄Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving
总结�Summary
总结�Summary
总结�Summary
总结�Summary
总结�Summary