Preventive Priorities
Survey: 2012
The Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) is intended to help inform the U.S. policy
community about the relative urgency and importance of competing conflict
prevention demands. The Center for Preventive Action asked a targeted group of
government o�cials, academics, and experts to comment confidentially on a list
of contingencies that could plausibly occur in 2012.
The list of preventive priorities for the United States
is grouped according to three tiers of relative
importance to U.S. national interests, based on
di�erent levels or categories of risk associated with
various types of instability and conflict. The
preventive priorities within each tier are not listed in
any order of priority or probability.
Tier I
Tier II
Tier III
The Center for Preventive Action is solely responsible for this survey and its results.
The survey is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Tier I
Tier I are contingencies that directly
threaten the U.S. homeland, are likely to
trigger U.S. military involvement because
of treaty commitments, or threaten the
supplies of critical U.S. strategic resources.
They include:
— a mass casualty attack on the U.S.
homeland or on a treaty ally
— a severe North Korean crisis (e.g., armed
provocations, internal political instabil-
ity, advances in nuclear weapons/ICBM
capability)
— a major military incident with China
involving U.S. or allied forces
— an Iranian nuclear crisis (e.g., surprise
advances in nuclear weapons/delivery
capability, Israeli response)
— a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S.
critical infrastructure (e.g., telecommu-
nications, electrical power, gas and oil,
water supply, banking and finance,
transportation, and emergency services)
— a significant increase in drug tra�cking
violence in Mexico that spills over into
the United States
— severe internal instability in Pakistan,
triggered by a civil-military crisis or
terror attacks
— political instability in Saudi Arabia that
endangers global oil supplies
— a U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation,
triggered by a terror attack or U.S.
counterterror operations
— intensification of the European sover-
eign debt crisis that leads to the collapse
of the euro, triggering a double-dip U.S.
recession and further limiting budgetary
resources
NORTH KOREA
CHINA
PAKISTAN
IRAN
SAUDI ARABIA
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
EUROZONE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
INDIA
PAKISTAN
IRAQ
BAHRAIN
AFGHANISTAN
YEMEN
EGYPT
SYRIA
TURKEY
ISRAEL
Tier II
Tier II are contingencies that a�ect
countries of strategic importance to the
United States but that do not involve a
mutual-defense treaty commitment.
They include:
— political instability in Egypt with
wider regional implications
— a severe Indo-Pak crisis that carries
risk of military escalation, triggered by
major terror attack
— rising tension/naval incident in the
eastern Mediterranean Sea between
Turkey and Israel
— a major erosion of security and
governance gains in Afghanistan with
intensification of insurgency or terror
attacks
— an outbreak of widespread civil
violence in Syria, with potential
outside intervention
— an outbreak of widespread civil
violence in Yemen
— rising sectarian tensions and renewed
violence in Iraq
— a South China Sea armed confronta-
tion over competing territorial claims
— a mass casualty attack on Israel
— growing instability in Bahrain that
spurs further Saudi and/or Iranian
military action
KYRGYZSTAN
VENEZUELA
LYBIA
SUDAN
SOUTH SUDAN
NIGERIA
SOMALIA
KENYA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
OF THE CONGO
RUSSIA
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
Tier III
Tier III are contingencies that could have
severe/widespread humanitarian conse-
quences but in countries of limited strate-
gic importance to the United States. They
include:
— military conflict between Sudan and
South Sudan
— heightened political instability and
sectarian violence in Nigeria
— increased conflict in Somalia, with
continued outside intervention
— political instability in Venezuela
surrounding the October 2012 elections
or post-Chavez succession
— political instability in Kenya surround-
ing the August 2012 elections
— renewed military conflict between
Russia and Georgia
— an intensification of political instability
and violence in Libya
— violent election-related instability in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo
— political instability/resurgent ethnic
violence in Kyrgyzstan
— an outbreak of military conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, possibly over
Nagorno Karabakh